Today's Polls, 7/17

A trio of polls from Rasmussen Reports contain relatively good news for Barack Obama.

In Nevada, Obama leads by 2 points after having trailed McCain in each of Rasmussen's last three polls of the state. We tend to group Nevada together with Colorado and New Mexico; but really the states do not have that much in common. Colorado is young, wealthy, and well-educated --increasingly hard to distinguish from reliably blue states like Minnesota or Washington. New Mexico, by contrast, has considerably below-average incomes, and is one of just three majority-minority states on the US mainland.

And Nevada presents a whole different set of circumstances, full of unionized workers and libertarians and Mormons and professional gamblers; and a whole host of local issues ranging from Yucca Mountain to one of the nation's highest foreclosure rates. Point being, it's a difficult state to figure out to begin with, and especially so given its paucity of polling. But between this poll and the Democrats' major gains in voter registration, I think we have to give a slight edge to Obama in Nevada, even though my model is still wont to give a slight edge to McCain.

In North Carolina, John McCain leads Barack Obama by 3 points, which is about the same lead he's held in nearly every poll of the state since April. While the state should remain reasonably close, our model does not particularly like North Carolina as an investment target for Obama, figuring that Obama won't win it without having won Virginia, and that if he's won Virginia, he won't need it.

Lastly, in Arkansas, McCain is 13 points ahead. Obama had trailed 9 points in the June edition of this poll, but by margins a large as 29 points earlier in the spring. Arkansas can't be completely dismissed as an electoral target, simply because if the Clintons commit themselves to some vigorous and sincere barnstorming on Barack Obama's behalf, they'll bring some voters in along with them. But 13 points worth? Probably not without a Clinton on the ticket.

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Weekend Poll Catchup

When my friend Geoff and I went to debate camp together (yes, there is something even dorkier than writing about polls), Geoff had a screensaver with an obnoxious lime green background and that pronounced in some very tacky, Windows 3.0 kind of font: "SLEEP IS THE ENEMY". I don't quite feel that way myself, but lately I've begun understand where Geoff was coming from. We were so busy rolling out methodological changes over the weekend that we didn't bother to document the latest polls. So let's see what we've got on the polling front.

In Arkansas, Rasmussen has Barack Obama closing to within 9 points. While this is hardly a fantastic result for a Democrat in Arkansas, it does represent an enormous improvement from Obama's prior polling in the state, which had shown him down by as many as 29 points. This result is easier to understand in light of our analysis of Obama's bounce, which seems to be concentrated in states with strong Democratic party identification but relatively few African-Americans -- Clinton country, in other words. Can Obama actually close Arkansas to the point where it becomes competitive? If Hillary Clinton is his VP choice -- Clinton still gets much more of a home-state effect in Arkansas than her adopted home of New York -- the state is probably in play. Otherwise, it probably isn't, although if the Clintons are particularly vigorous in their campaigning, it might get teasingly close.

In Oregon, Rasmussen has Obama ahead by 8. This poll has been cited by some McCain supporters a a sign that Obama's bounce is waning, since Rasmussen's last poll had him up 14 there. However, that May poll had been taken right as Obama had begun to campaign toward that state's primary; Rasmussen's March poll had shown him up by 6. No matter how you interpret the trend, Oregon looks pretty safe for Obama, but given Clinton's paucity of support in the state, there was perhaps less room for Obama to gain further ground there.

The New York Times has decided to poll the Empire State, which shows Obama leading John McCain 51-32. Although this is the Times' first poll in New York this year, Obama's 19-point margin as large as in any New York poll conducted this year. So once again, the same pattern: big Clinton state, bigger bounce.

Finally, in Nevada, a Mason-Dixon poll shows John McCain ahead by 2 points, 44-42. Mason-Dixon had last polled Nevada way back in December, at which point McCain led by 6. Although you have to go back to March to find a survey where Obama led in Nevada (the state is notoriously hard to poll and hasn't been polled much), the state's demographics should be relatively friendly to him, and he should theoretically be on the right side of the Yucca Mountain issue. With that said, in most of the scenarios* where Obama wins by way of the Southwestern swing states, he only needs two out of three to win, so Colorado and New Mexico may remain his first targets.

* For example, Kerry states + Iowa + Colorado + New Mexico is a winning combination; if he wins those states but loses New Hampshire, the election ends in a 269-269 tie that would probably be resolved in Obama's favor in the House.

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Today's Polls, 5/15

In Iowa, Rasmussen has Barack Obama beating John McCain by 2 points, and Hillary Clinton trailing McCain by 3 points. Obama's result is consistent with previous Rasmussen polling of the state, whereas Clinton's position has significantly improved.

In Arkansas, it's Clinton +14 and Obama -24 against McCain. That's one of the more dramatic differences you're likely to see in any given state. Rasmussen is now in line with other polls in Arkansas, which show Clinton with a safe-looking lead in the state; she had actually trailed by 7 in Rasmussen's previous poll. Believe it or not, this is also an improvement for Obama from Rasmussen's last poll of Arkansas, which had him down by 29.

In Washington, SurveyUSA has Obama +12 and Clinton +4. McCain has made some nosies about wanting to compete in the Pacific Northwest region. That might be a decent idea against Clinton, but it's a poor one against Obama, who runs very strongly in the Pac Northwest.

Finally, we've figured out how to accommodate yesterday's Georgia poll, which showed Obama trailing by 14 and did not poll the Clinton matchup. Clinton's result will be listed as "no poll" in our tables and the result will not affect her averages.

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Today's Polls, 3/22

Just one poll today -- and we're on the road -- so we'll be brief. The poll is out of Arkansas, where Rasmussen reports that John McCain is leading Hillary Clinton by 7 points and Barack Obama by 29 points in Arkansas.

This is one of those polls that, although the losing margin is much uglier for Obama, is actually worse news for Hillary because Arkansas is a state that she was expecting to win, whereas Obama has always polled badly there. Why Obama has polled so badly in Arkansas is an open question: the Arkansas is actually fairly reliably Democratic at the state level, and a plurality of the state's voters (41%) described their party ID as Democrat in 2004 exit polling. And for Clinton, there's an open question about whether something is happening to her numbers in the South: this is the second straight poll that has come in much below expectations for her in the region, following yesterday's Rasmussen poll of Georgia.

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New Pennsylvania, Michigan polls are good news for McCain

A couple of new polls from Pennsylvania: Rasmussen shows McCain leading Obama by 1 and Clinton by 2, whereas Susquehana shows a bigger split between the two Dems: McCain leads Obama by 4, but trails Clinton by 3.

Rasmussen also has a new Michigan poll out, with both Democrats trailing McCain by 3 points.

These polls, when combined with the new pollster weightings that we rolled out yesterday, reduce Obama's overall win percentage from 61.7% to 59.5%. Clinton's number is essentially unchanged, at 41.4% compared to 41.8%.

Should the Democrats be worried about Pennsylvania and Michigan? I'll give my generic answer to this question: you'd always rather the polls tipped in your direction than the other way around. Both Democrats should have the opportunity to move those numbers upward -- or downward -- based on the tenor of the campaign over the next six weeks.

NOTE: The Susquehanna poll also contains some interesting splits in the Democratic primary Obama leads Clinton by 19 points in Philadelphia, and has a slight lead on the Philly suburbs, but trails her 59-10 in the Southwestern/Allegheny region. What was that James Carville quote about Pennsylvania again?

EDIT: Also a new Arkansas poll added after the buzzer (McCain +16 over Obama, but -15 versus Clinton) that affects the numbers very slightly.

And yet another new Pennsylvania poll, this one from Strategic Vision. The good news for Obama is that it shows him doing better than Clinton in that state. The bad news for him is that both Democrats are trailing McCain in November trial heats -- Obama by 3 points to Clinton's 6.

Although earlier polling data had been better in Pennsylvania, both Democrats now rate as (very slight) underdogs to McCain in that state.

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