Today's Polls, 7/18

Although it is more apparent in some polling than in others, there now unambiguously seems to have been some movement toward John McCain.

In Maine, Barack Obama now leads by 8 points according to the latest numbers from Rasmussen. While Maine is unlikely to be competitive, Obama had led by 22 points in Rasmussen's June poll of the state. Polling movement like this in Maine, and what Rasmussen had shown earlier in the week in Kansas, is probably caused by statistical noise to a certain degree. Nevertheless, it is of a large enough magnitude that it almost certianly isn't caused entirely by statistical noise, especially considering that Obama's lead in both the major national tracking polls is down to a single point. McCain's electoral position has brightened a bit since the July 4 holiday.

In Alaska, a Research 2000 poll for Daily Kos has McCain expanding his lead to 10 points; he had led by 7 in Research 2000's only previous poll of the state in May. While it would certainly be worth Obama's while to visit Alaska, the state now looks like a somewhat less attractive target than Montana or either of the Dakotas.

In Virginia, Rasmussen has John McCain with a one-point lead (the candidates are tied if leaners are not included). In June, Rasmussen had shown Obama with a one-point lead -- however, McCain had led in all of its previous polling of the state. We have characterized Virginia for some time as the closest of the toss-up states. (With the entire Washington establishment within driving distance of Richmond, one can only imagine the chaos that might ensue if there were a recount there).

Lastly, in New Jersey, Strategic Vision has Obama ahead by 9. Based on some research that I have done, Strategic Vision is one of only two polling agencies so far this cycle to show a statistically significant bias in their numbers; their polls tend to be tilted about 3 or 4 points toward the Republican candidate. (The other polling firm in this category is Zogby Interactive, whose numbers tend to be tilted by 3 or 4 points toward the Democratic candidate). So, if Strategic Vision is showing Obama with a 9-point lead in New Jersey, the state is probably pretty darn safe for him.

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Why Obama should visit Alaska, Part II

Two more reasons why Barack Obama should visit Alaska -- and soon:

Firstly, John McCain would face a tough choice between potentially watching the state flip to Obama and having to pay a visit himself. Apart from the jet lag, what is the downside of visiting Alaska? The McCain team seems to have a fear of acknowledging weakness on the electoral map; hence, their reticence to admit that Virginia (among others) is a swing state. It's one thing for McCain to visit Kentucky or Louisiana -- states that are not especially competitive this year, but that went Democratic as late as 1996. But Alaska has always been as red as red gets. So McCain either looks like he's in panic mode because he has to visit Alaska, or with a little luck for Obama, a poll will come out later this summer showing Obama a couple of points ahead, which might also trigger some bad press for McCain.

Secondly, Obama could force McCain to clarify his position on drilling the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR). McCain has now come out in favor of offshore drilling, but gave a non-answer answer to a Missourian's question about ANWR drilling today, which McCain has consistently and somewhat vocally opposed doing in the past. Most Alaskans want to drill the ANWR, so McCain would either have to (i) explain why he wants to drill everywhere else but not the ANWR -- not an easy sell to Alaskans or (ii) come out in favor of ANWR drilling, which creates a much clearer flip-flop from his previous record. Obama, though he also holds a position on ANWR that would be unpopular with the locals (and probably the rest of the country), can at least place a claim to being consistent. Obama is not going to be able to flip the the offshore drilling issue like he did the gas tax -- it is too easy for McCain to frame it as a matter of national security -- but at least he would be staging the issue in such a way as to encourage McCain to flop.

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Afternoon Polling Update, 6/18

So many polls, so little time! This is everything that's been released today, including the results from our morning edition.



Let's begin in Ohio, where Rasmussen's latest data contradicts the notion that Barack Obama is surging in the state. He still trails John McCain by one point in their polling; McCain had also led by one point in their May survey. There are several factors to consider here. Firstly, this poll postdates the Quinnipiac poll by a few days. I'm not yet convinced that Obama's bounce is receding, in part because there haven't really been any intervening news events to give some momentum back to John McCain, but that's always something to keep in mind. Secondly, some of the pollsters (like SurveyUSA and PPP) that had shown Obama leading in Ohio by fairly large margins tend to have a more fluid/less grounded conception of party identification than does Rasmussen. In Ohio, they're finding a huge shift in party identification, with as much as 50 percent of the state identifying as Democrat, and running with those numbers as is. Since SurveyUSA and PPP identify a lot more Democrats in their sample, and since much of Obama's bounce appears to be in the form of bringing Democrats back home to their party, it is not surprising if they are showing more movement toward him.

Unfortunately, there are no definitive answers about how one should measure party idenitifaction, and we won't really know who got it right until November. At a gut-feel level, it's hard not to imagine Ohio being somewhat close. At the same time, Obama's problems in the state had stemmed from his poor performance in Southern Ohio, which is part of Appalachia. And this is the region in which his bounce appears to be most profound: his polling has improved by 12 points in Kentucky and 15 in Arkansas, and he took some huge steps forward in Southern Ohio in Quinnipiac's regional breakdown.

Other Rasmussen polling does show a bounce for Obama. In Maine, he's ahead by 22 (up from 13 a month ago), and in Alaska, he trails McCain by just 4 points (down from 9 a month ago). There is certainly some novelty value in the notion of a Democrat competing in Alaska. But it's a state that the Obama campaign ought to be taking reasonably seriously: Alaska is the the youngest state in the country in a year where we have the largest-ever age gap between the two nominees. Indeed, it's probably time for Obama to visit Alaska. I don't have any numbers on this, but I would guess that candidate visits make more difference in smaller states, and particularly those that are out of the way geographically. If Obama visits Alaska, it will create a ton of earned media, and McCain will probably have to follow him to defend the state.

The notorious A.R.G. (American Research Group) is out with their first general election polling of the year; they have Obama leading by 5 points in Florida, and 12 in New Hampshire. You probably know that I don't have the highest opinion of ARG, but in their defense, their general election polling has tended to be pretty decent -- it's their primary polling that has been a mess. I do not, incidentally, find the New Hampshire result implausible, precisely because New Hampshire has some history of overreacting to current trends. With few New Hampshirites fitting into hard-and-fast demographic categories, and many of them identifying as independents, there is probably a higher fraction of swing voters there than any other state in the country. So as the country swings, New Hampshire swings twice over.

Finally, two results that tend to confirm our current impressions in a couple of states. In Virginia, Public Policy Polling has Obama ahead by 2 -- this is their first poll of the Commonwealth -- and in Wisconsin, SurveyUSA has Obama ahead by 9, up from 6 last month.

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Today's Polls, 5/16

You know it's a different kind of election season when you're having an easier time getting polling data for Alaska than for Michigan:



The headline today is that for the first time since we started tracking the state polls in early March, we are now rating Hillary Clinton as a favorite against John McCain. One of the big reasons why is that she is starting to consolidate her positions in blue states like Maine and Washington that previously looked like they might be somewhat vulnerable. What she needs now are some better numbers in Michigan and Wisconsin; if she gets those, her win percentage will go way up.

Barack Obama is also polling quite strongly in blue states recently. However, he appears to be backtracking somewhat in red states like Kansas. This is undoubtedly fairly typical for this point in the election cycle, when support begins to revert toward being more partisan. But the reason why we don't yet show Obama getting a surge in his electoral math even as he has improved his standing in national polls is because we haven't gotten a lot of data from key purple states recently, and what data we have gotten -- as in Wisconsin and New Hampshire -- has not been especially good for him.

There should be a lot of polling coming out next week, notably including SurveyUSA's monthly refresh of data in 15 or 16 states, so we should have a better idea by then.

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Today's Polls: Alaska!

An interesting set of polls today, and the first time in a while that there's enough volume that we need to embed a chart to keep up with everything:



Yes, Rasmussen surveyed Alaska. And a good thing they did, because the race is potentially competitive there. The modest 5-point deficit they show for Obama is consistent with what SurveyUSA showed back at the end of February, as well as the inklings of our regression model. Still, it is arguably more meaningful coming from Rasmussen, a pollster whose results tend to be a little more conservative and a little bit more oriented around traditional red-blue lines.

It seems to me that there are two things that could move Alaska into the category of a true toss-up state. One would be the entry of a third-party candidate like Bob Barr. Alaska has always had strong affinity for third-party candidates, and if such a candidate were to siphon more votes from McCain than Obama, the state becomes very competitive.

The second contingency would be a well-run Senate campaign by Mark Begich, who is challenging longtime GOP incumbent Ted Stevens, and who (also according to Rasmussen) trails by just one point in that endeavor. It almost seems as though the Senatorial coattails could carry the Presidential race, rather than the other way around. It is hard to imagine Obama winning Alaska if Mark Begich loses it. On the other hand, if Begich were to focus his campaign around Stevens' ethical lapses, that dovetails fairly well with Obama's message. Also of note: Alaska is the youngest state in the country, an odd match for the octogenarian Stevens and the septuagenarian McCain.

Moving onward, in ascending number of electoral votes: Rasmussen also shows a relatively competitive race (Obama -5) in Montana, which Bill Clinton carried in 1992. Demographically, Montana is fairly similar to Alaska. While it lacks a competitive Senate race, it does have more of a Democratic party infrastructure, and for that reason is more likely to be treated as a competitive state by the Obama campaign.

Obama has consistently outpolled Clinton in New Mexico, and this poll is no exception. That comes as a little bit of a surprise to the regression model, which thinks that heavily Hispanic and relatively impoverished New Mexico should be a better state for Hillary Clinton. But that's not what the polls have said so far, and Hillary only won the primary there by the slimmest of margins.

This Wisconsin poll should not be taken all that seriously: it's slightly out of date, and it consists of a small sample of just 400 adults (not even registered voters). Although St. Norbert College has been polling Wisconsin for a while, it gets an appropriately low weighting.

Finally, our reality check in all of this is Ohio, where the numbers haven't moved much from Rasmussen's previous poll that had both Democrats down 6. Hillary, who has fared better than this in other Ohio surveys, remains a slight favorite in the state according to our averages, and Obama a slight underdog.

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