If Memorial Day marks the start of political spring training, and Labor Day the start of the playoffs, the July 4th holiday might be the beginning of the regular season. John McCain comes out of the break with one of his stronger polling days in some time.
There are two polls out in Missouri, both of which give McCain the lead. Rasmussen places his lead at 5 points, and Public Policy Polling puts it 3. This marks a reversal from a period where Obama had been polling fairly strongly in Missouri, having held the lead in Rasmussen's last poll conducted about a month ago.
There might, however, be a relatively simple explanation for this one: McCain has been saturating the state with advertising. Should Obama fight back? Well, he already is, having tripled his staff in the state. So, we might have the makings of an old-school air-versus-ground battle. But I also think that Missouri could be a little bit of a trap state for Obama. Our model, which now accounts for the relationships between the states in more sophisticated ways (more on this shortly), found only 43 simulation runs out of 10,000 when Obama won Missouri while losing Ohio. Missouri is essentially Ohio with 15 percent more evangelicals -- I don't think that's outweighed by its sharing a border with Illinois, but I can understand if the Obama people feel differently.
Another interesting state is New Jersey, where Rasmussen shows John McCain closing to within 3 points (5 if leaners are not included). Rasmussen has generally had New Jersey much closer than other pollsters, and as we noted this weekend, it is an exceptionally expensive state to compete in. Nevertheless, it has different demographics from virtually any other swing state -- McCain's one window into the Mid-Atlantic region. If he runs somewhat to the left, emphasizing his fiscal conservatism to wealthy New Jersey suburbanites while deemphasizing the guns and gays stuff (Scott Rasmussen also likes the offshore drilling issue for him here), the state could be competitive.
Lightning Round: In a now somewhat outdated Pan Atlantic SMS poll of Maine, Barack Obama has a 14-point lead (counting leaners). The poll also has great numbers for Susan Collins. And in Alabama, a Capital Survey poll has Obama within 13 points after having trailed by 24 last month.
Lastly, the Zogby Interactive results are now incorporated into the averages. Although we discount the value of these polls heavily, there are nevertheless 34 of them, and they provide enough help to Obama numbers in states like Arizona and North Carolina to mitigate McCain's gains in Missouri and New Jersey. Obama, however, has been polling below his trendline for the past couple of days, including mediocre results in the Gallup and Rasmussen trackers. If that continues through the end of the week, we may be able to credit McCain with a little momentum.
Wednesday, July 9, 2008
Today's Polls, 7/9
Monday, June 30, 2008
Today's Polls, 6/30
There are some good polling results for Barack Obama today -- but not really in the places where he needs them. Take for instance Rasmussen's poll in Alabama, where Obama now trails John McCain by 15 points after having been 28 points behind before. Or the new SurveyUSA poll in Massachusetts; SurveyUSA finally gives Obama a 13-point lead in the Bay State after he had failed to break single digits in any of the six polls they had released in Massachusetts earlier this year. But Massachusetts is too blue, and Alabama too red, to matter in this election.
In Florida, on the other hand, Rasmussen has John McCain holding steady with a 7-point lead. Rasmussen had surveyed Florida barely a week ago, then showing McCain ahead by 8 points. The main problem that Rasmussen seems to be detecting for Obama in Florida is that the Democratic defection rate remains relatively high -- he's losing 20 percent of Democrats to McCain, and 4 percent to "some other candidate". The puma is native to Florida, I would point out. Nevertheless, since Quinnipiac and ARG seem to feel differently about the state, it might be time to get a Mason-Dixon or a SurveyUSA on the case. Hell, I'll even take an Insider Advantage poll.
Rasmussen also sees no movement toward Obama in Georgia, where he trails in their survey by 10 points, just as he did a month ago. Unlike Insider Advantage, which found Bob Barr polling in the mid-single digits, Rasmussen gives him just 1 percent support. I have been a little inconsistent in my treatment of Georgia. It is a state that Obama could win if a number of things go right, but then again, that's true of probably 40 of the 50 states on the map this year.
Lastly, SurveyUSA has Obama ahead by 2 points in Virginia. This brings SurveyUSA into line with Rasmussen and PPP, each of which show nearly identical numbers, but is a step backward for Obama from SurveyUSA's May poll, which had Obama up 7 points in Virginia. As I argued yesterday, if you see a result that looked aberrant before -- and a 7-point lead for Obama pre-unity bounce definitely looked a little weird -- you sometimes have to ignore the trendlines and take the result on its own merits. Virginia is perhaps the closest state on the map at the moment -- the state whose county names we might all learn by heart staying up late on Election Night -- and all the polling is reflecting that.
Thursday, June 5, 2008
Today's Polls, 6/5
We've been in a little bit of a lull for polling, as pollsters, quite understandably, might have wanted to wait for the Democratic nomination to resolve itself before putting new surveys out in the field. But a couple of late-breaking polls this afternoon.
In Missouri, Rasmussen has Barack Obama with a trivial, 1-point lead over John McCain. In Rasmussen's previous survey, Obama had trailed by 6. SurveyUSA had also shown Missouri closing to toss-up status; our regression model is liable to remain a little bit skeptical until Obama can improve his numbers some in other Southern states. But this is a state that's going to be competed in from now through November.
Just across the border, a Research 2000 / Daily Kos poll has John McCain ahead by 11 points in Kansas. The poll also suggests that Kansans are fairly lukewarm about the prospect of Kathleen Sebelius as VP -- though importantly, a 36-24 plurality of independents say she'd make them more likely to vote for the ticket. We're going to have some research out over the next couple of days about the home-state effects triggered by a Vice Presidential nominee.
Finally, in Alabama, a Capital Survey Research Center poll has John McCain 24 points ahead of Obama.
Tuesday, June 3, 2008
Today's Polls, 6/3
SurveyUSA has released a whole bunch of data within the past 24 hours related to the series of Vice Presidential surveys they conducted last week:
The result that has gotten the most buzz is Obama's +2 in Missouri. What's a little bit unusual is that SurveyUSA appears to have conducted a second Missouri poll over the same period, which included Senator Clinton's numbers rather than the VP matchups. So far as I can tell, these are completely separate polls (they have different sample sizes, for instance) and so we will continue to list both of them. And really, they're close enough to one another that it probably isn't worth sweating the difference; both point toward Missouri being competitive in November. With that said, those who argue that Obama performs better when Hillary Clinton's name isn't mentioned in the survey could point to this as evidence.
Obama's numbers out on the Pacific Coast look very good, as they have been in almost all polling recently. On the other hand, McCain is a bit closer than expected in Minnesota and Massachusetts, but that has been a consistent facet of SurveyUSA polling in those states. SurveyUSA polls appear to be less hewed to party identification than those of most other agencies, so just as they tend to show Obama polling a bit closer in red states like Nebraska, they also tend to show McCain more competitive in certain blue states.
Thursday, May 29, 2008
Today's Polls, 5/29
A strange mix of polling data today:
The most significant result is probably the EPIC-MRA poll in Michigan, which shows the same four-point margin for McCain that SurveyUSA showed yesterday. Also like the SurveyUSA poll, this one had a conspicuously high number of undecideds. My sense is that this probably has something to do with Obama not having campaigned in Michigan during the primary cycle and that the state will probably lean his way in the long run. At the same time, Michigan is a state that has a significant amount of affection for John McCain, and his fundraising has been strong there.
I'm quite honestly at a loss as to how to explain the couple of Rasmussen results in Alabama and Mississippi. Demographically, the states are nearly identical. The Obama campaign has made some overtures about wanting to compete in Mississippi specifically, and it rarely hurts a candidate to call out the importance of a particular state. There might also be some lingering bitterness among Mississippians directed at the Republican Party over Trent Lott. But in the long-run, I don't see how you're going to get a 6-point margin in one state and a 28-point margin in the other.
Finally, for those of you wondering what in the hell that Texas poll is, that survey (from Baselice & Associates, Inc.) can be found here.
Monday, April 28, 2008
Today's Polls, 4/28
In Wisconsin, a UW-Madison/Badger Poll has Barack Obama leading John McCain by 4 points, but Hillary Clinton trailing him by 6 points.
It is states like Wisconsin that are responsible for giving Obama at least as strong an electability argument as Hillary Clinton. Forget, for the moment, all that stuff about Obama expanding the map. While the Obama electoral map might be more "fun" than Hillary's, and has the potential to be a little bit more robust in terms of electoral strategy, for the time being Obama is a little too far out of range for states like North Carolina or Montana to be characterized as something other than curiosities. If Obama gains 2-3 points against McCain across the board -- sure, some of those states will become interesting. (For that matter, Hillary Clinton could put states like Kentucky and Tennessee into play if her numbers improve globally). But for the time being, it's probably best to focus on more earthbound sorts of advantages.
The thing is however that Obama does have some significant advantages over Clinton, even without the map-expanders. These are in states that I call the Group of Nine: Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, Michigan, Washington, Oregon, Colorado, Nevada, and New Hampshire. Presently, we have 61 polls listed from among these states. Of those 61 polls, Obama outperforms Clinton in 57 of them, and ties her in two others.
These states, somewhat spread out over the country, otherwise have a fair amount in common. They are, as a group, whiter than the rest of the country, better educated than the rest of the country, more Mainline Protestant than the rest of the country, and more rural than the rest of the country -- some of these characteristics fit with the media-approved caricatures of the race while others do not. They are purple states, but they are not 'centrist' states in the way that, say, Ohio or Missouri are. Instead, they have high numbers of independents, and they tend to weave together different political traditions from the left and the right that somewhat balance one another out. They tend to have active and engaged political bases, but can be somewhat anti-establishment.
The Group of Nine states account for 80 electoral votes; Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania collectively account for 68. That 12-EV gap, not coincidentally, is very similar to the advantage that Obama presently holds over Clinton in our simulations.
p.s. There's also a new Capital Survey poll out of Alabama that shows McCain leading both Democrats 55-36 (+19). Alabama and Oklahoma are the only two states in the country where both Democrats presently have 0% win percentages.
Thursday, April 17, 2008
Today's Polls, 4/17: Obama takes a hit, with caveat
SurveyUSA has a new round of polling out in more than a dozen states. Let's run the numbers first and then let's talk.
These are generally, although not uniformly, a poor set of polls for Barack Obama. The ones that are perhaps especially problematic for him are in Virginia and New Mexico, states where SurveyUSA has generally showed him running fairly well. The Ohio result, naturally, is important, although that's consistent with what we've seen in other polling. And SurveyUSA shows a close race for Obama in Massachusetts, as it has all cycle; it would be nice to be able to look at another pollster's numbers on that race.
As you can see, Obama's win percentage against John McCain has declined to its lowest ever number, 41.4%, which leaves him essentially tied with Hillary Clinton, who is presently at 40.2%. When we began this project, the polls indicated that Obama was at a hair over 60% to win an election against John McCain; that number has now fallen by more than 20 points.
But for the Obamaphiles in the crowd who are inclined to panic, a couple of things to keep in mind: Firstly, even in a bad set of surveys, Obama retains some areas of strength. These are, particularly, the Pacific Northwest region and our North Central (e.g. Upper Midwest) region. In Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, as well as in Washington and Oregon, Obama is likely to win fairly easily, whereas all of those states are in play in a Clinton-McCain contest. It's these states, plus neighboring Michigan -- which will not be a slam dunk for Obama but appears to be a better state for him than for Clinton -- that account for why Obama is still at least tied with Clinton overall, in spite of performing worse than her in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida.
Secondly, notice that the SurveyUSA polls were taken over the weekend, just as the bittergate controversy was hitting the radar. Keep in mind my prediction about bittergate, which is that it would have no real impact on the Democratic primary numbers, but perhaps a couple of points worth of medium-term impact on Obama's general election numbers. So far, that prediction has been pretty well borne out.
The other dynamic in play here is something that I call 'timing bias': pollsters tend to release surveys in the wake of major news events. Consider, for instance, that the last time SurveyUSA released a big set of polls was just as the Jeremiah Wright controversy was breaking. Naturally, pollsters (and the clients they work for) want to gauge the electoral reaction to important events in the news cycle. But really, if you buy one of my fundamental arguments about polling, which is that most bounces are just that -- temporary aberrations in the polling numbers -- these are the very worst times to release polls. And it cuts both ways. If, say, Obama wins Indiana, and essentially concludes the nomination with an 'upset' victory, we'll probably see a lot of polls released in the aftermath of that. Those numbers too, I'm guessing, would likely show a fairly big bounce for Obama -- and that bounce too, I'm guessing, might well prove to be ephemeral. It's helpful to have a pollster like Rasmussen on hand, which releases its polling data in dribs and drabs, rather than in big chunks.
Thirdly, our previous analysis shows that with a unified Democratic party behind him, Obama is likely to have a superior hand to play to Clinton's.
With all that said, there's no doubt that Obama's electability numbers have taken a hit. For one set of advocates, that is precisely the reason to draw the Democratic nomination process to a close, and for the other set, it is precisely the reason to continue it.
p.s. One result I wouldn't worry about for Obama: the TargetPoint poll showing him trailing McCain by 12 points in Colorado. Whatever hit Obama has taken, it does not appear to be in states like Minnesota and Washington, that are similar to Colorado demographically. And TargetPoint surveyed this contest on behalf of a Republican advocacy firm, and over small (~300 voters) sample sizes.
Monday, April 7, 2008
Sunday, March 30, 2008
A Boring Poll, and a Pop Quiz
The University of South Alabama has a new poll out in the first state in the nation (alphabetically). John McCain leads Barack Obama by 24 and Hillary Clinton by 22. These numbers represent slight improvements for bot
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