Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Whistling Past Bubba

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2009-10-02T06:01:07.814-04:00

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2009-04-16T05:00:00.000-04:00

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2009-03-12T22:00:00.001-04:00

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2009-03-12T22:00:00.000-04:00

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2009-02-08T23:06:00.000-05:00

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2009-02-08T21:51:00.000-05:00

I think Missouri is still a swing state and will f...

2008-11-13T17:55:00.000-05:00

I think Missouri is still a swing state and will fall into the Obama column come 2012. The fact that it was this close this long means its up for grabs still.

The Perot effect is what limited Bill Clinton's ma...

2008-11-12T02:12:00.000-05:00

The Perot effect is what limited Bill Clinton's mandate. Bill Clinton never won a majority vote and that limited his power severely. The EC map did not matter because trolls used Clinton's plurality only victory to successfully obstruct much of his presidency. To trolls they rationalized that if Perot did not run in 1992 Bush would have won.

Continued.I also found that the 28 states + DC Oba...

2008-11-11T16:57:00.000-05:00

Continued.

I also found that the 28 states + DC Obama won have 69% of the population, while McCain's 22 only have 31%! If the 538 EVs were distributed according to that, Obama should have had 372.3 EVs, while McCain would have 165.7.

This brings me to the point: It looks to me, a perfect stranger, that your system gives advantage to the smaller (or least populated) states. I looked at it and yes, McCain won 5 out of the 8 states (and DC) with 3 EVs, 7 of 13 states with 4-6 EVs, and 7 of 13 states with 7 to 10 EVs. Obama won 6 of 9 states wih 11-15 EVs and 6 of 7 states with over 15 EVs, the well known exception being Texas.

As I learned how your system works, it seemed to be very fair: the want-to-be-president had to win not only the most (popular) votes, but had to win a majority of votes in a combination of states representing the majority of population. Well, I am not sure of that anymore. I have not done the numbers, but it looks to me that Bush`s victory in 2000 could have been because he won a group of over represented states?

This list needs to include Vermont.In the space of...

2008-11-11T16:11:00.000-05:00

This list needs to include Vermont.

In the space of two administrations, Vermont has swung from reliably GOP to reliably DEM.

In 1992, Clinton won a plurality in VT. This was the first time, ever, (i.e. ever as in 1792-1992) a Democrat won Vermont with the exception of the Johnson landslide in '64.

H.W.Bush won Vermont in '88 and Reagan, Ford, Nixon('72, '68 & '60) all won Vermont easily and several times ('84/'80/'72/) w/landslide numbers.

In 1988, Dukakis wrote off Vermont and Bush 41 took it for granted because it was reliably Republican. In 1992, it was not until after Labor Day that Clinton saw that Vermont was in play and made a run for it.

Clinton & the Dems winning in Vermont in 1992 was a milestone and Gore breaking 50% in 2000 was another milestone.

Vermont has a well deserved reputation for being a liberal state. It wasn't until 2000, however, that this played out at the Presidential level.

In the space of two - Clinton/Bush - administrations, Vermont has swung from reliably GOP to reliably DEM.

sláinte,
cl

I have been watching the last part of your preside...

2008-11-11T16:00:00.000-05:00

I have been watching the last part of your presidential race and the results and I think I understand your electoral system (which most people outside the US find hard). Everytime I showed somebody the electoral map they would say: McCain must be winning, since most of the map is red!

Well I did a few numbers today and, yes, if territory ad been the decidind factor, the GOP would have won. Obama won 28 stats plus DC, McCain won 22. But the 22 states cover 61% of the territory, while the 28 only cover 39%. No wonder the map looked red.

Jua, from Mexico

As a life-long Missouri resident, I have to take e...

2008-11-11T14:15:00.000-05:00

As a life-long Missouri resident, I have to take exception with your assessment of the Show-Me state having turned into a "lean Republican" state which is "quickly losing its 'bellweather' status."

McCain "won" Missouri with a measly 6000 votes this election. A handful of the electoral maps out there still have Missouri colored in grey, and labeled as "too close to call."

What has made Missouri such a bell-weather state is that it is so evenly divided between Red and Blue... this election was no different. But, if you look at the outcome of this election in comparison to 2004, it was clearly trending blue. Bush won by 200,000 votes on '04, and Obama was able to close that gap to a very narrow strip of 6000 votes.

I believe that if Obama does well in his first term, Missouri will be blue in 2012, and will still be the most accurate state in the union in predicting our President.

What might it mean if Texas elected a Democratic G...

2008-11-11T09:31:00.000-05:00

What might it mean if Texas elected a Democratic Governor in 2010? The Houston mayor, Democrat Bill White, won his 3rd term with 86% of the vote last year, and is term limited now. There's talk he'll run for Gov in 2010 and he just might be able to turn Texas blue. People LOVE him here.

Just think what a blue Texas would do to that EC map...

Bill White for President 2020!!

Fascinating analysis -- as always! -- but I would ...

2008-11-11T09:07:00.000-05:00

Fascinating analysis -- as always! -- but I would like to point out that the map, at least, is artificially slanted toward the red end of the spectrum, since Clinton's win percentages in places like Colorado (which looks almost bleach-white on this map) were artificially aided by the candidacy of H. Ross Perot.

@mvr - I don't think you followed the road to 270 ...

2008-11-11T05:53:00.000-05:00

@mvr - I don't think you followed the road to 270 graphs that closely.

South Idaho is the second most populated Mormon area in the country by population. North Idaho (minus the skinheads) is actually very progressive.. similar I think to the emerging Colorado demographic.

I disagree completely with Mule Head. California may not be gaining EV's outright.. but the California mentality is spreading to the enitre SW region. Oregon (my homestate) is entirely out of play.

Social Conservatives are the death of the GOP. Period. This country is not center-right.. that is just real america spin.

Look with is aking o the streets these days... blacks? no.. gays.

There is no turning back. :)

I echo those who object to Missouri's being lumped...

2008-11-11T04:03:00.000-05:00

I echo those who object to Missouri's being lumped in with the "inland South". If you look at that NY Times trend map (http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2008/11/05/us/politics/20081104_ELECTION_RECAP.html?partner=permalink&exprod=permalink), you can see that on a county-by-county basis, there is one major contiguous "inland South" region that is trending more Republican (along with a smaller Gulf Coast area in southern Louisiana and the adjacent portion of Texas). It is most intense in Arkansas, but is stopped almost perfectly at the Missouri border (aside from a couple far southeastern counties where it "spills over"). Most Missouri counties are trending blue compared to 2004.

I think comparisons to '92 are limited by the presence of Perot on the ticket: Obama has gotten more votes in Missouri (in absolute terms and percentagewise) than Clinton did.

-Alan

I've been noticing the same thing recently - the R...

2008-11-11T01:50:00.000-05:00

I've been noticing the same thing recently - the Republicans are increasingly confined as a Southern regional party (and the Christian conservatives who dominate much of the GOP are unappealing outside the South). If we take states won by Gore and Kerry as the Democratic base, then add New Mexico, Colorado and perhaps Virginia (which keeps becoming more Democratic and less Southern as its demography changes), the Democrats can win even WITHOUT Florida and Ohio, and can win landslides when they do have FL and OH.
The only way for Republicans to counteract this trend is for them to nominate more moderate candidates, especially on social issues. I don't think the folks who forced Sarah Palin on John McCain (who wanted to run with his old friend Joe Lieberman, but the Christian Right threatened a floor fight) will give up easily.
A few years ago, Karl Rove was boasting of having confined the Democrats to a few regions in the Northeast and West Coast, now, with the remarkable geographic scope of Barack Obama's victory and Democratic gains everywhere from the Senate to state legislatures, it appears that the opposite may be true - the Republicans are essentially a Southern regional party!
Someone PLEASE explain to me how Republican Jim Douglas keeps getting reelected governor of VERMONT, of all places, though. As a liberal Vermont Democrat, I just can't understand why we can't get rid of this guy (he's a somewhat moderate Republican, but not that moderate - he pointedly stayed a Republican and chaired Bush's re-election effort in the state when Jim Jeffords turned independent). 67.4% of us voted for Barack Obama, but 55% voted for Douglas. Yes, it was a three-way race, but the other two candidates put together didn't come close to Douglas' vote total. Apart from Douglas, Republicans are essentially extinct here - every county voted for Obama, only four of our 253 towns went for McCain (no town that went for McCain had more than 200 voters)! Both houses of our state legislature have 2/3 Democratic majorities... Who are all these mysterious Obama-Douglas voters????

@GeorgeinFloridaThanks for the clarification, I wi...

2008-11-11T01:48:00.000-05:00

@GeorgeinFlorida
Thanks for the clarification, I will take that off my list. I read about the official you mentioned while it was happening but didn't realize it was an isolated incident. It's hard not to remember what happened in 2000 (and possibly to a lesser extent in 04); thanks for being such a standup guy.

@JudasPriest
Thanks for info on my backwards quote and learned reference! It seemed so apposite about the difficulties in undoing Gitmo, etc. etc. I'm in Boston too ...

To maintain momentum in the electoral realignment,...

2008-11-11T00:24:00.000-05:00

To maintain momentum in the electoral realignment, Obama and the Democrats should not provide an opening for conservative candidates in swing areas. Assuming that conservative principles are not mutually exclusive with Democratic goals, I suggest the following:

(1) Congress should enact reasonable regulations to preclude another asset bubble.

(2) Bailouts should be designed to return a profit for the taxpayer.

(3) Congress should achieve fiscal restraint in the period after the economy recovers from the current recession.

(4) Strengthen the US military with respect to defending our borders, but otherwise avoid foreign entanglements beyond Al-Queda.

(5) Congress should reduce taxes on the middle class.

(6) Congress should not create any new restriction on individual liberty, including 2nd amendment rights.

(7) Congress should not enact policies that greatly irritate Christian conservatives. For example, I believe that eventually gay marriage will be a US Supreme Court issue and Obama should nominate judges that will eventually deal with that issue.

Are the red states getting redder and the blue sta...

2008-11-11T00:22:00.000-05:00

Are the red states getting redder and the blue states getting bluer? Is the country getting increasingly geographically polarized? To some extent the swing states are changing and some states have changed allegiance, which means that (current) blue states tend to be bluer than they were 16 years ago, and (current) red states tend to be redder than they were 16 years ago just because of the changes.

However, if you just look at states that were the same color in both races, almost without exception the red states have gotten redder and the blue states bluer. To me, this indicates that the politics in this country are becoming increasingly geographically polarized.

RE: Nate's Senate projection of AK:There was nothi...

2008-11-10T23:49:00.000-05:00

RE: Nate's Senate projection of AK:

There was nothing wrong with Nate's model for AK. All the polling data predicted a Stevens loss. Everyone missed this race because the polls were wrong. Since Nate's model uses poll data, how could anyone predict a Stevens win given that set of data???

If people lie to polsters indicating that they won't vote for a convict, and then they do for for him, how are you supposed to predict that?

BTW: AK has not yet been called, since there is still a lot of votes not yet counted. This one is still too close to call.

@Susan (1:28)"I do hope and trust that all inciden...

2008-11-10T23:29:00.000-05:00

@Susan (1:28)

"I do hope and trust that all incidences (like FL Hillsborough) of cheating are being explored and will be exposed regardless of diminished public interest."

There was no cheating in Hillsborough, only incompetence. The only "cheating" I observed (I live in Hillsborough and worked the polls) was by the guy running for County Supervisor of Elections (and he lost). Everything else was fair.

I'm not sure you have the Mormon vote placed in th...

2008-11-10T22:52:00.000-05:00

I'm not sure you have the Mormon vote placed in the right states in your labeling Utah, Wyoming and Idaho as a "Mormon Belt". I believe that most of Wyoming does not have a high Mormon population, though perhaps southwest Wyoming does. (Most of the population of Wyoming is East, though.) And Arizona has as significant if not more significant Mormon population towards the Northern parts of the state. I don't know about Idaho, but I have never thought of the state as heavily Mormon.

In any case, to the extent that the Mormon religion heavily influences politics in the states mentioned as parts of the "Mormon belt", I think it is mostly in Utah. Of course Mormons have spent money in both California and Nebraska for anti-gay rights initiatives. But in both of those cases it seems not to have been because the states had a lot of Mormon voters.

FWIW. I scanned the comments and could not find anyone else saying this, but I may have missed something . . .

You guys HAVE to check out this flash of a new way...

2008-11-10T21:41:00.000-05:00

You guys HAVE to check out this flash of a new way to do electoral maps. TOO cool.

Talk of the Nation, November 7, 2008 · Mark Newman, professor of physics at the University of Michigan, has a new spin on an old map. He created a program to make cartograms — maps in which states are drawn with their size proportional to their population, rather than their acreage.

Science Friday producer Flora Lichtman talks with Newman about a new generation of electoral maps:

Maps of US to population not geography

You can call it the Inland South. Or, you could c...

2008-11-10T21:31:00.000-05:00

You can call it the Inland South. Or, you could call it Dumbfuckistan. I prefer Dumbfuckistan. Much more accurate.