Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Today's Polls, 9/18: Obama Regains the Lead

cheap puma shoes cheap sport shoes ed hardy ugg...

2010-03-11T20:11:49.343-05:00

cheap puma shoes
cheap sport shoes
ed hardy ugg boots
ed hardy love kills slowly boots
ed hardy love kills slowly
discount puma shoes
nike shox torch
nike tn dollar
cheap nike shox
ed hardy polo shirts
ed hardy love kills slowly shoes
ed hardy wear
cheap nike shox shoes
nike shox r4
ed hardy love kills slowly shirts
ed hardy trousers
ed hardy jackets
puma mens shoes
cheap nike max
discount nike shox
ed hardy t shirts sale
ed hardy womens t shirts
ed hardy boots
cheap puma ferrari shoes
nike mens shoes
nike shox nz
ed hardy womens clothes
ed hardy womens shirts
ed hardy clothes
discount nike running shoes
discount nike shoes
nike shox shoes
ed hardy outerwear
ed hardy womens
ed hardy womens jeans
cheap nike shoes
nike sports shoes
puma running shoes
puma sneakers
ed hardy bags
ed hardy winter boots
ed hardy t shirts
nike shoes kids

nike women shoes nike running shoes ed hardy w...

2010-03-11T20:07:45.470-05:00

nike women shoes
nike running shoes
ed hardy womens shoes
ed hardy t shirts for men
ed hardy mens jeans
wholesale nike shoes
nike shoes
nike tn dollar
nike air max 90
nike air max 2009
nike air max 2010
nike air max tn
puma cat
ed hardy mens shoes
ed hardy womens hoodies
ed hardy mens tees
puma shoes
ed hardy clothing us
ed hardy clothing
ed hardy outerwear
ed hardy t shirts
ed hardy boots
ed hardy hoodies
cheap ed hardy
ed hardy clothes
cheap ed hardy clothing
ed hardy wholesale
ed hardy men’s
ed hardy women’s
ed hardy kid’s

Looking back on this, some Conservative pundit wil...

2008-09-20T07:20:44.422-04:00

Looking back on this, some Conservative pundit will write that the single biggest "mistake" McCain made in this election was to agree to go to "Ground Zero" with Obama under a temporary truce.
It allowed many "indie" voters to have a pre-Debate image of McCain and Obama on equal footing as they honored the heros and the fallen. Which makes any future "Obama's not a patriot" or "Obama is a secret muslim" attack a lot tougher for just a couple million of voters to swallow.

In the Bradley effect voters, particularly Democra...

2008-09-20T00:23:55.771-04:00

In the Bradley effect voters, particularly Democrats said in public and in polls they would vote for Bradley but in the privacy of the voting booth voted their prejudice. The parallel now is that Republicans will say in public and in polls they will vote for McCain but in the privacy of the voting booth will vote their choice for Obama.

Hey all,This post is my first one here.I have not ...

2008-09-19T15:50:51.328-04:00

Hey all,

This post is my first one here.

I have not had the time to go over everything this site has to offer yet, but I was wondering what the columns on the left-hand side of the page (that are broken u by regions: New England, Acela, etc.,) mean when they say Obama: 0%, McCain: 100%? How could there be a 100-0% ratio in one state?

Thanks!

can anyone please define how the younger generatio...

2008-09-19T11:55:25.744-04:00

can anyone please define how the younger generation doesn't have a primary home phone listed so can't get surveyed and how this affects polls?

Re Geoff's comment about Nate's bias clouding his ...

2008-09-19T09:41:58.093-04:00

Re Geoff's comment about Nate's bias clouding his objectiveness....
It does an analyst no good to subjectively predict a more desirable outcome than he can mathematically defend. The result of such a bias would be to underestimate the risks and opportunities associated with deploying media and other tactics, especially at the state level. Most analysts are conservative - they overestimate risks to compensate for potential sampling error, the logic being you'd rather win by 5% than lose by 1%.

Speaking about latin america. Funny McCain intervi...

2008-09-19T02:08:10.529-04:00

Speaking about latin america. Funny McCain interview: http://www.usnews.com/blogs/robert-schlesinger/2008/09/18/john-mccain-gets-confused-about-spain-but-his-advisers-get-dumb.html

Embarassing day for pollsters. Pile of crap, worth...

2008-09-19T01:41:13.561-04:00

Embarassing day for pollsters. Pile of crap, worthy of ARG yesterday. (Regardless of which McBama you support.)

Sedi-I was not refering to you or some of the othe...

2008-09-19T01:02:33.605-04:00

Sedi-

I was not refering to you or some of the other more statistically inclined posters, of which I am not one.

I was refering to the "wah-wah bias-bias" posters. Speaking of which I am surprised Mid Point Man hasn't posted recently? I almost miss hearing how this is great news for McCain. :)

If I think something is crap, I don't take bite after bite of it all the while complaining that it is crap.

Lol, does the right really want to get into a who ...

2008-09-19T00:54:15.791-04:00

Lol, does the right really want to get into a who supports what dictator fight? Listen, just study United States-Latin American relations over the past century and tell me what's more important to our government? Democracy or capitalism? The answer is obvious because the U.S. has supported quite a list of right-wing dictators down there over the years. It has to infuriate anyone who knows this history to see Bush II spew his freedom/democracy for all nations bullshit now.

Vernon said:"Admit it, the left never met a dictat...

2008-09-19T00:46:10.101-04:00

Vernon said:

"Admit it, the left never met a dictator they didn't like."

Not true. I don't like Bush.

"Oh the angry left have to decree their judgment o...

2008-09-19T00:37:27.611-04:00

"Oh the angry left have to decree their judgment on people "I DECLARE YOU: ZEEEEEEEEE NOOOOOOO FFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFOBE"

Mispronouncing words in a mock? Racist.

Oh the angry left have to decree their judgment on...

2008-09-19T00:35:15.101-04:00

Oh the angry left have to decree their judgment on people "I DECLARE YOU: ZEEEEEEEEE NOOOOOOO FFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFOBE"

Sorry Vernon, but you miss the point. None of the...

2008-09-19T00:28:55.019-04:00

Sorry Vernon, but you miss the point. None of the folks who keep referencing HUSSEIN are doing so with SYDNEY.

You people can try and deny it all day and claim there is no malicious intent, but please, give me one valid reason to keep singling out Obama for his middle name other then to tacitly imply that he is somehow "foreign" or a "terrorist".

It's playing to the fears of xenophobes and racists. Disgusting, but I wouldn't expect anything less from the "values" party.

If you think that the 527s are going to save you at this point, well, you might as well get used to saying "president. B. HUSSEIN" :)

"No peacetime capitalist democracy has ever experi...

2008-09-19T00:28:47.059-04:00

"No peacetime capitalist democracy has ever experienced shortages. Ever. Not even in the Great Depression. Shortages are caused by central government planning."

Couldn't you only get gas on certain days depending on if your license plate number ended in an odd or even number in the late
1970's? I was a young child at the time, but I have a vauge memory of it.

Inkstain - I don't even understand that site's mod...

2008-09-19T00:27:17.734-04:00

Inkstain -

I don't even understand that site's model. Their map, even on "mild republican" swing, still shows a better likelihood of Kerry+IA+NM+CO than a McCain win. Yet they predict a McCain win as more likely? Huh? That doesn't make sense.

I never heard people complain about the obvious ta...

2008-09-19T00:25:04.477-04:00

I never heard people complain about the obvious tactic of trying to associate Bush with the widest letter of the alphabet, W.

And having just moved from that area after living ...

2008-09-19T00:24:50.454-04:00

And having just moved from that area after living there most of my life, I can say with confidence I'm smarter than any SIU-C guys. The UIUC guys might be tougher.

You can call McCain "J. Sydney". Doesn't bother m...

2008-09-19T00:22:39.497-04:00

You can call McCain "J. Sydney". Doesn't bother me. If his name was "J. Bin Laden McCain" it might be an issue. Who would have thought after 9/11 someone with the middle name "Hussein" would be so close to the presidency. Oh, but we can't say that. It's racist or country-ist or something, right? Maybe if Barry went by Sotiero he'd be better served. The 527 ads are going to be classic in about a month.

I gave two specific problems I had with their meth...

2008-09-19T00:22:12.376-04:00

I gave two specific problems I had with their methodology.

Making Rasmussen, a notorious R+2 poster, one of the only three you use is a good way to skew your results in and of itself.

Question: How often do you "hey it's not xenophob...

2008-09-19T00:20:24.970-04:00

Question: How often do you "hey it's not xenophobic to call someone by their middle name ;)" folks refer to John McCain as "J. SYDNEY"?

'Nuff said.

Vincep1974 is right. If Obama wins in 2008 he wil...

2008-09-19T00:19:52.181-04:00

Vincep1974 is right. If Obama wins in 2008 he will win the next eight elections with 100% margins each time.
axmxz-
It's actually from Rush Limbaugh's web site quoting a professor at the University of Illinois at Urvana Champaign working with collaborators at SIU-Edwardsville and involves 4,000 analysts and experts in analytics. Go ahead ignore it. You're smarter than all those people I'm sure. Just stick to your Kos-funded polls and you'll see that Obama is leading in every state because... well because people on Kos don't know anyone voting for McCain.

Lorda merci, no wonder these get so long I can't k...

2008-09-19T00:18:24.833-04:00

Lorda merci, no wonder these get so long I can't keep up.
Isn't there a better way to read old posts than this cracked out way of looking at newer posts and clicking older posts to refresh?

Where's CPME and the tourette fits?

I am not above telling a B Hussein joke.What I don...

2008-09-19T00:17:49.129-04:00

I am not above telling a B Hussein joke.

What I dont get is why sometimes people take jokes ilke this as if they were a personal attack on them.