Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Today's Polls, 9/18: Obama Regains the Lead

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2009-07-17T05:45:55.514-04:00

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^^ very nice 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社, 徵...

2009-03-12T02:08:00.001-04:00

^^ nice blog!! ^@^徵信, 徵信網, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵...

2009-03-12T02:08:00.000-04:00

徵信社, 感情挽回, 挽回感情, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 捉姦, 徵信公司, ...

2009-02-09T03:23:00.000-05:00

Looking back on this, some Conservative pundit wil...

2008-09-20T07:20:00.000-04:00

Looking back on this, some Conservative pundit will write that the single biggest "mistake" McCain made in this election was to agree to go to "Ground Zero" with Obama under a temporary truce.
It allowed many "indie" voters to have a pre-Debate image of McCain and Obama on equal footing as they honored the heros and the fallen. Which makes any future "Obama's not a patriot" or "Obama is a secret muslim" attack a lot tougher for just a couple million of voters to swallow.

In the Bradley effect voters, particularly Democra...

2008-09-20T00:23:00.000-04:00

In the Bradley effect voters, particularly Democrats said in public and in polls they would vote for Bradley but in the privacy of the voting booth voted their prejudice. The parallel now is that Republicans will say in public and in polls they will vote for McCain but in the privacy of the voting booth will vote their choice for Obama.

Hey all,This post is my first one here.I have not ...

2008-09-19T15:50:00.000-04:00

Hey all,

This post is my first one here.

I have not had the time to go over everything this site has to offer yet, but I was wondering what the columns on the left-hand side of the page (that are broken u by regions: New England, Acela, etc.,) mean when they say Obama: 0%, McCain: 100%? How could there be a 100-0% ratio in one state?

Thanks!

can anyone please define how the younger generatio...

2008-09-19T11:55:00.000-04:00

can anyone please define how the younger generation doesn't have a primary home phone listed so can't get surveyed and how this affects polls?

Re Geoff's comment about Nate's bias clouding his ...

2008-09-19T09:41:00.000-04:00

Re Geoff's comment about Nate's bias clouding his objectiveness....
It does an analyst no good to subjectively predict a more desirable outcome than he can mathematically defend. The result of such a bias would be to underestimate the risks and opportunities associated with deploying media and other tactics, especially at the state level. Most analysts are conservative - they overestimate risks to compensate for potential sampling error, the logic being you'd rather win by 5% than lose by 1%.

Speaking about latin america. Funny McCain intervi...

2008-09-19T02:08:00.000-04:00

Speaking about latin america. Funny McCain interview: http://www.usnews.com/blogs/robert-schlesinger/2008/09/18/john-mccain-gets-confused-about-spain-but-his-advisers-get-dumb.html

Embarassing day for pollsters. Pile of crap, worth...

2008-09-19T01:41:00.000-04:00

Embarassing day for pollsters. Pile of crap, worthy of ARG yesterday. (Regardless of which McBama you support.)

Sedi-I was not refering to you or some of the othe...

2008-09-19T01:02:00.000-04:00

Sedi-

I was not refering to you or some of the other more statistically inclined posters, of which I am not one.

I was refering to the "wah-wah bias-bias" posters. Speaking of which I am surprised Mid Point Man hasn't posted recently? I almost miss hearing how this is great news for McCain. :)

If I think something is crap, I don't take bite after bite of it all the while complaining that it is crap.

Lol, does the right really want to get into a who ...

2008-09-19T00:54:00.000-04:00

Lol, does the right really want to get into a who supports what dictator fight? Listen, just study United States-Latin American relations over the past century and tell me what's more important to our government? Democracy or capitalism? The answer is obvious because the U.S. has supported quite a list of right-wing dictators down there over the years. It has to infuriate anyone who knows this history to see Bush II spew his freedom/democracy for all nations bullshit now.

Vernon said:"Admit it, the left never met a dictat...

2008-09-19T00:46:00.000-04:00

Vernon said:

"Admit it, the left never met a dictator they didn't like."

Not true. I don't like Bush.

"Oh the angry left have to decree their judgment o...

2008-09-19T00:37:00.000-04:00

"Oh the angry left have to decree their judgment on people "I DECLARE YOU: ZEEEEEEEEE NOOOOOOO FFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFOBE"

Mispronouncing words in a mock? Racist.

Oh the angry left have to decree their judgment on...

2008-09-19T00:35:00.000-04:00

Oh the angry left have to decree their judgment on people "I DECLARE YOU: ZEEEEEEEEE NOOOOOOO FFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFOBE"

Sorry Vernon, but you miss the point. None of the...

2008-09-19T00:28:00.001-04:00

Sorry Vernon, but you miss the point. None of the folks who keep referencing HUSSEIN are doing so with SYDNEY.

You people can try and deny it all day and claim there is no malicious intent, but please, give me one valid reason to keep singling out Obama for his middle name other then to tacitly imply that he is somehow "foreign" or a "terrorist".

It's playing to the fears of xenophobes and racists. Disgusting, but I wouldn't expect anything less from the "values" party.

If you think that the 527s are going to save you at this point, well, you might as well get used to saying "president. B. HUSSEIN" :)

"No peacetime capitalist democracy has ever experi...

2008-09-19T00:28:00.000-04:00

"No peacetime capitalist democracy has ever experienced shortages. Ever. Not even in the Great Depression. Shortages are caused by central government planning."

Couldn't you only get gas on certain days depending on if your license plate number ended in an odd or even number in the late
1970's? I was a young child at the time, but I have a vauge memory of it.

Inkstain - I don't even understand that site's mod...

2008-09-19T00:27:00.000-04:00

Inkstain -

I don't even understand that site's model. Their map, even on "mild republican" swing, still shows a better likelihood of Kerry+IA+NM+CO than a McCain win. Yet they predict a McCain win as more likely? Huh? That doesn't make sense.

I never heard people complain about the obvious ta...

2008-09-19T00:25:00.000-04:00

I never heard people complain about the obvious tactic of trying to associate Bush with the widest letter of the alphabet, W.

And having just moved from that area after living ...

2008-09-19T00:24:00.000-04:00

And having just moved from that area after living there most of my life, I can say with confidence I'm smarter than any SIU-C guys. The UIUC guys might be tougher.

Vernon,Thanks for the link to the election predict...

2008-09-19T00:23:00.000-04:00

Vernon,
Thanks for the link to the election prediction site. Unfortunately, it is an excellent example when someone takes a tool (in this case statistical analysis) and applies it to a topic (in this case polling) about which they have very little actual knowledge. Visiting websites like that make the appreciate 538.com even more.

You can call McCain "J. Sydney". Doesn't bother m...

2008-09-19T00:22:00.001-04:00

You can call McCain "J. Sydney". Doesn't bother me. If his name was "J. Bin Laden McCain" it might be an issue. Who would have thought after 9/11 someone with the middle name "Hussein" would be so close to the presidency. Oh, but we can't say that. It's racist or country-ist or something, right? Maybe if Barry went by Sotiero he'd be better served. The 527 ads are going to be classic in about a month.

I gave two specific problems I had with their meth...

2008-09-19T00:22:00.000-04:00

I gave two specific problems I had with their methodology.

Making Rasmussen, a notorious R+2 poster, one of the only three you use is a good way to skew your results in and of itself.

Question: How often do you "hey it's not xenophob...

2008-09-19T00:20:00.000-04:00

Question: How often do you "hey it's not xenophobic to call someone by their middle name ;)" folks refer to John McCain as "J. SYDNEY"?

'Nuff said.