Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: The Libertarians' Big Tent

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2009-10-09T04:35:27.843-04:00

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Third parties do spoil the outcome of elections. T...

2009-03-29T22:29:00.000-04:00

Third parties do spoil the outcome of elections. They bring up issues that are not necessarily neglected, but are simply put aside becuase it's not important. Then these issues could be adopted into one or more of the major parties' party platform. Third parties could also be a good thing because they bring more voters to the polls.

Although the fundamental goal of political parties are to gain government control, they should do it in a respectful way and use their power for good and to not focus too much on being more conservative or more liberal in the House.

It will definately be quite interesting to have the third party Libertarians to run in the presidential elections in 2012! I would definately watch that.

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2009-02-10T22:55:00.000-05:00

Score Voting (aka Range Voting) does fix the two-p...

2008-10-07T04:17:00.000-04:00

Score Voting (aka Range Voting) does fix the two-party duopoly problem.

Condorcet and IRV do not.

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Barr clearly will hurt McCain and help Obama. If ...

2008-05-28T12:18:00.000-04:00

Barr clearly will hurt McCain and help Obama. If he gets significant press, he can potentially move several deep red states into Obama's column. I'm thinking Georgia and Alaska for starters. Not to mention how much Barr will help Obama in the purple states. IMHO, Obama just won the election.

Now, things would have been much different if Ruwart had won the nomination. She would have hurt Obama and helped McCain, although probably not by as much.

Seeing as how money isn't exactly Obama's problem ...

2008-05-27T21:18:00.000-04:00

Seeing as how money isn't exactly Obama's problem this year, I wonder if I might be most effective by donating to Bob Barr.

Not a big Libertarian fan, but I think the Paul-he...

2008-05-27T14:44:00.000-04:00

Not a big Libertarian fan, but I think the Paul-heads should go ahead and make a stink in St. Paul this year.

The reason why the Libertarian Party never snags above a million votes? It's too mixed-bag, too esoteric...even for a third party.

So how about it, Ron Paul revolutionaries? Start running candidates against the theocrat buffoons and big spenders in the G.O.P.! Might as well accomplish something useful this year...

Just on purely objective indicators--name recognit...

2008-05-27T13:25:00.000-04:00

Just on purely objective indicators--name recognition, prior political experience, etc.--this year's cast of "minor" presidential candidates could be one of the strongest in memory, if (as expected) Cynthia McKinney (a former Democratic Congress member and one, like Barr, from Georgia) gets the Green nomination: Barr, McKinney, and the Nader-Gonzalez independent ticket.

Gravel's decision to seek the Libertarian nomination puzzled me. He is much more Green than Libertarian. Yet he did pretty well at the convention for such a newcomer. (Barr, of course, was also a newcomer.)

I have no plans for voting for the Libertarian tic...

2008-05-27T11:45:00.000-04:00

I have no plans for voting for the Libertarian ticket, but, I did watch much of the Convention on CSPAN. I was really captured by the speech Joe Johnson gave about being a Libertarian in Elected politics. If the Party can find more people like Mr Johnson, realize when theory and practicality meet, they definitely have a chance of making some inroads into the national scene.

I think Barr is a great selection for the Obama ca...

2008-05-27T11:33:00.000-04:00

I think Barr is a great selection for the Obama campaign. I think Barr will take votes from McCain but not so much from Obama. If it had been someone more like Ron Paul (or Paul himself) there would have been a lot more votes taken from Obama, which they definitely don't need with Nader already running.

I actually consider myself to be something of a libertarian - when it comes to civil liberties certainly - and when it comes to foreign policy too - in a lot of ways. My perfect party would probably be some sort of marriage between the Democratic party and the Libertarian party.

Ron Paul and Harry Browne (and Dennis Kucinich, ye...

2008-05-27T10:41:00.000-04:00

Ron Paul and Harry Browne (and Dennis Kucinich, yes, that Dennis Kucinich) also oppose(d) abortion. Paul implicitly supports the overturning of Roe v. Wade because he prefers that states rights prevail over the issue.

That was not the main issue between Barr and more traditional libertarians. His role in the drug war (he has moderated his position on medical marijuana) and vote for the Patriot act (he opposed it, but voted for it as part of a deal to include a sunset clause) were their main issues of contention.

As to Barr's impact on the race... if he did pick up Ron Paul's support he would not really harm McCain. Look at the exit polls - Paulions were young, liberal independents not old-fashioned Republicans. The Libertarian party may actually provide a service to McCain by providing an alternative to the democrats for disillusioned anti-war Republicans who might otherwise have voted for Obama.

Splitting the vote isn't always the worst thing in the world. In Canada (where I am from), the two parties of the right were split from 1993-2004. In terms of winning seats, of course, this was a problem. However, because they were able to target different niches of conservative voters they won more votes. In spite of one of the biggest scandals in history hitting their Liberal opposition, their joint vote fell 8% in the 2004 election.

I had a government teacher in high school during t...

2008-05-27T10:26:00.000-04:00

I had a government teacher in high school during the seventies who had a line I still remember to this day.
"I'm 90% with the Libertarians. It's just that other 10% scares the Hell out of me."

Mike never said he was for single payer health car...

2008-05-27T07:05:00.000-04:00

Mike never said he was for single payer health care. He;s for single payer health care for people who can't afford health care.

and that's not what his candidacy is about. ITS ABOUT EMPOWERING THE PEOPLE AS LAWMAKERS. not single payer health care.. christ. way to miss the ball.

Bob Barr has advocated overturning Roe v. Wade for...

2008-05-27T03:06:00.000-04:00

Bob Barr has advocated overturning Roe v. Wade for decades, but Georgia voters threw him out of office after it was revealed that he paid for his second wife to get an abortion, even driving her to the clinic (while he was seeing a mistress that became his third wife).

After his hypocrisy is told to the American public he will be lucky to get more than 1% of the votes.

With Barr being selected, and being conservative o...

2008-05-27T01:11:00.000-04:00

With Barr being selected, and being conservative on social issues, I think some of the left-libertarians should consider supporting Obama. Some of the Paulites that I have spoken to seem open to doing that.

"I had one question. In your simulations, if one s...

2008-05-27T00:58:00.000-04:00

"
I had one question. In your simulations, if one state has a 50%chance of going for Obama and another state has a 50% chance for Obama, then do you assume that the joint distribution of the two states is independent. I would guess that there is significant correlation: i.e. the two states would vote for the same candidate more than 50% of the time."

True. There IS some correlation. The simulation is done by assigning four different random numbers to the states- some to all states, some just to one state.
THe "National Random Number" is the same for both states, so there is a good chance for the candidate to win them both when the random number is positive, and to lose them when the random number is negative (unless the other three random numbers have another spin).

Sorry about my former ramblings. I hope this is a...

2008-05-27T00:40:00.000-04:00

Sorry about my former ramblings. I hope this is a bit more coherent.

I really don't think suitable attention has been paid to third parties in this election cycle. History shows that the majority of close elections are either determined by third parties or made close by third parties.

If we look at all 25 presidential elections from 1908-2004, only two, 2004 and 1976, were close elections where a third party candidate played no important role. 2000, 1992, 1968, and possibly 1996 were probably determined by the presence of a third party candidate bleeding support away from the ultimate loser. 1980 and 1908 were elections where what could have been a close race turned into a big victory due to the presence of a third party candidate. 1960, 1948, and 1916(?) were elections where a potential big win turned into a tighter race due to a third party (or unannounced candidate in 1960). 1924 and 1912 were years where the opposition seemed nonexistent due to splitting the vote with a third party (in 1912 that third party received more votes than the major party). Finally, 1988, 1984, 1972, 1964, 1956, 1952, 1944, 1940, 1936, 1932, 1928, 1920 were simply blowouts, but a third party candidate did receive more than 1% of the vote in 1972, 1936, 1932, 1920.

In summary, close elections not influenced by third parties are rare (2 in 25 or 8%). Yet straightforward blowout elections (12 in 25 or 48%) or elections strongly influenced by third parties (11 in 25 or 44%).

2008 could turn out to be a close third-party-free election like 2004, but the odds seem to be against it. I still think it could be an Obama blowout. Still, there are reasonable odds that a third party will play an important role. Obama may be susceptible to losing a fraction of Clinton's base to a third party run. I think Nader in 2000 is too fresh a wound to make that likely unless it is race-related. The Democrats have lost a lot of voters to third parties on the basis of race (see 1968, 1960, and 1948). Hopefully, we're past that.

The GOP in contrast is much more splintered. The alliance between the neocons, religious right, Wall Streeters, and libertarians has grown quite weak. Barr/Paul have some real potential to take away just enough libertarian, religious right, and even Wall Street Republicans to have a real effect. Can McCain really afford to lose a couple percentage points worth of libertarians in New Hampshire, Colorado, and/or Nevada or religious conservatives in Virginia, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and/or Indiana?

How can you, a numbers geek, mention the future of...

2008-05-27T00:17:00.000-04:00

How can you, a numbers geek, mention the future of third parties without mentioning voting reform? There need never be another spoiler! A quick primer:

Instant runoff voting (IRV): Used in a growing number of local elections. You vote your first, second, third, etc choice candidates in order, then those ballots are used to count as if there were multiple rounds of voting, eliminating the bottom candidate until one has the majority. 90% spoiler-free.

Condorcet / Virtual One-on-one Tournament Elections (VOTE-123). Vote your preferences as above, counting works like a sports tournament - one-on-one matches determine the winner. Rare "circular ties" have complicated (but basically irrelevant) tiebreaking rules. 95% spoiler-free - more than IRV - but not in as common use.

Range voting: You rate each candidate from 0 to 100, to see who wins just add the scores. You should avoid giving serious candidates ratings between 2 and 98 unless you don't mind diluting your vote. 100% spoiler free, but even rarer, and unlike the first two has not been validated as legal by the supreme court.

Any of the above would more-or-less eliminate the problem of spoilers and make third parties viable. They'd probably remain minorities, but they'd be able to make real enough threats to scare the main two into shaping up a bit, without shooting themselves in the foot and making their own side hate them. Good for democracy.

From Wikipedia:"Barr is also a supporter of the Fa...

2008-05-26T23:33:00.000-04:00

From Wikipedia:

"Barr is also a supporter of the Fair Tax and repealing the 16th Amendment, which gives the U.S. Congress the power to levy an income tax without apportionment."

This is why he won't make the L's a national third party.

I think this country cycles among three philosophi...

2008-05-26T23:16:00.000-04:00

I think this country cycles among three philosophies of governance. We are currently being run by the right/Republicans/fascists (lowercase "f" - I'm not intending to call anyone a nazi). These are those who use government to empower those at the top. The current administration employs trickle-down economics (help the employer while ignoring the worker) and a trickle-down foreign policy (conquer the leadership while ignoring the foreign citizen). We are in the midst of a takeover by the the left/Democrats/socialists (again not intended as a slur). Aid the worker (employ trickle-up economics) and the foreign citizen (trickle-up foreign policy).

In my opinion, the war on terror requires a trickle-up strategy (does anyone actually think replacing a country's leadership with America-friendly politicians will have much effect on their population of extremists?). It is also my opinion that we currently face a trickle-up recession. These two forces have tended to balance each other out over our history. FDR replaced an era of Hoover, Coolidge, and Harding.

In spite of our two party system, a third force steps in to balance the equation at times: libertarianism (again with a lowercase "l"). Government steps in to help the little guy, the big guy, but government also takes a hands-off approach. Reagan would not have managed such an electoral landslide without advocating libertarianism. Nixon came to power in large part as a backlash against the civil liberties of the JFK/LBJ era.

Again, I feel that what we face at present requires a socialist balance to counter excessive fascism. Trickle-up approaches are required for the problems we face. At the same time, the groundwork needs to be laid for the round that balances out the socialist side of things. I suppose it's possible that if the GOP goes the way of the Whigs, the Libertarian Party might be the new Republicans, but I doubt it. They are, as a whole, far too attached to their philosophy at the expense of practicality. Nevertheless, I sincerely hope that the Ron Pauls and Bob Barrs (version 2.0 not 1.0) will pull the Republicans in their direction instead of seeing the nation faced with a return of the neocons.

I'm an economics professor (and a conservative Rep...

2008-05-26T23:07:00.000-04:00

I'm an economics professor (and a conservative Republican), and I think this is an absolutely terrific site. The amount of aggregate data available for consumption is just amazing. Great job, Poblano.

I had one question. In your simulations, if one state has a 50%chance of going for Obama and another state has a 50% chance for Obama, then do you assume that the joint distribution of the two states is independent. I would guess that there is significant correlation: i.e. the two states would vote for the same candidate more than 50% of the time.

I guess the question would be whether they're a po...

2008-05-26T22:01:00.000-04:00

I guess the question would be whether they're a political party or merely a collection of exposed nerve endings. Of course, as long as they siphon off votes from McBush, they can be a potted plant, for all I care!