Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: CBS/NYT Poll Preempt

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2009-02-09T06:26:00.000-05:00

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2009-01-18T01:58:00.000-05:00

Not the exact same poll, but NRO is questioning th...

2008-10-15T10:40:00.000-04:00

Not the exact same poll, but NRO is questioning the methodologies of an ABC News/Washington Post Poll.
http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=M2RmZTI2OTUxYTUwYTAxN2FhMmRkMjUyMmUzODk1M2I=
Any thoughts on this?
Peace,
Chris

your site is simply rocking!!!!!!!!1keep goinghave...

2008-10-15T10:38:00.000-04:00

your site is simply rocking!!!!!!!!1
keep going
have a look at ma blogs..
lance and dude

Its an interesting fantasy that America even has a...

2008-10-15T03:09:00.000-04:00

Its an interesting fantasy that America even has any left wing politicians any more. Pelosi funded the Iraqi war and chose not to impeach the criminals responsible for the fabricated war from day one.

Who are the lefties Republicans continue to refer? America has NO LEFT wing at all. Social liberalism remains the province of certain university proffesors, but that's about it among the status quo. Certainly they don't refer to Howard Dean or Al Gore.

On Iraq nearly everyone but Obama(and Kucinich) kissed Bushes ass when it was obvious what was going on to anyone with at least half a brain. Obama represents a shift towards the center from the far right. McCain represents the continuation on the road to fascism and protracted global war which the GOP has intentionally put us on for whatever the reason. Quite simply put, it is their inept leadership that has insured the 14 point lead, and a clear path for Obama victory.

Nare has missed what appears to be the primary fac...

2008-10-15T01:30:00.000-04:00

Nare has missed what appears to be the primary factor for the drop in Obama's numbers in the new PPP NC poll. The internals in the latest PPP poll shows a 5% drop in Obama's African American support since the last PPP poll and a 6% increase for McCain. This seem a real outlier given the following numbers from the last four PPP NC polls from todays tracking back with Obama total first: 87/10; 92/4; 91/5; 90/4. It would be difficult to put forward a sound explanation that would support this shift in the African American vote in NC over the last week. My view from Charlotte is that there has been no swing to McCain

Widespread unease over the country’s direction and...

2008-10-14T23:29:00.000-04:00

Widespread unease over the country’s direction and doubts about President Bush’s policies on Iraq and the economy helped propel Sen. John F. Kerry to a solid lead among voters nationwide, according to a new Times poll.

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Thursday's CNN/USA Today/Gallu...

2008-10-14T23:27:00.000-04:00

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Thursday's CNN/USA Today/Gallup tracking poll indicates that Vice President Al Gore may be opening a solid lead over Texas Gov. George W. Bush, after nearly two weeks of neck-and-neck competition. Today's figures -- 51 percent for Gore to 40 percent for Bush -- represents a significant margin for the vice president.

Since Labor Day, the media have released about 20 ...

2008-10-14T23:22:00.000-04:00

Since Labor Day, the media have released about 20 polls on the presidential race. Three show a dead heat, one shows George W. Bush leading by a single percentage point, and the rest show Al Gore leading by one to 10 points. In the latest polls, Gore leads by an average of five points. It's fashionable at this stage to caution that "anything can happen," that Bush is "retooling," and that the numbers can turn in Bush's favor just as easily as they turned against him. But they can't. The numbers are moving toward Gore because fundamental dynamics tilt the election in his favor. The only question has been how far those dynamics would carry him.

Now that he has passed Bush, the race is over.

sorry, but the republican turn out will be higher ...

2008-10-14T22:54:00.000-04:00

sorry, but the republican turn out will be higher than 28%. Another bogus headline to drive a story.

I think any time there's a new post up, 'threadjac...

2008-10-14T22:20:00.000-04:00

I think any time there's a new post up, 'threadjacking' an older thread is not bad manners.

No, you couldn't very well be "so sure" about me, ...

2008-10-14T22:12:00.000-04:00

No, you couldn't very well be "so sure" about me, because the positions I've expressed are primarily procedural, not substantive. What conclusions could you possibly draw about my affinity for evidence from this minimal record?

To your (b), I can only laugh. When have I taken a position against the use of data where appropriate data exist? And yet you continue to assert that I'm anti-facts, with no basis in the world. Perhaps you can't tell that there are distinctions among the others you're talking at? Attributing the words of other antagonists to me because I'm the only one engaging you?

I'm not telling you that your ideas are wrong, I'm telling you that your expression of your ideas is alienating your audience. If you cared about influencing people, this would matter. If all you care about is feeling clever, knock yourself out. But I'd appreciate it if you weren't on my side while doing it.

Issac:a) most of these conversations here go off t...

2008-10-14T22:01:00.000-04:00

Issac:

a) most of these conversations here go off topic quite a bit. I find it interesting you somehow thing its relevant now.

b) If you think using data in your analysis of where is the political center rather than just citing your opinion is a strawman argument- the divide between us is greater than definitions. It goes to basic reasoning. I am a big believer in not making shit up. That's not a strawman. That's how someone trying to be competent rather than an idealogue thinks. In that way, although I am not polite, I am very much like Obama. You- I am not so sure.

reelgeist,This entire conversation is the sort of ...

2008-10-14T21:50:00.000-04:00

reelgeist,

This entire conversation is the sort of OT threadjacking that I disapprove of, but what the hell - the comments are petering out on their own.

Not sure what you're trying to achieve by straw-manning me into the truthiness vs. evidence-based-argument frame in your head, but I'm not your audience even if you were doing a good job. I'm actually a big fan of facts and evidence, contra your unexplained presumption.

That said, I agree with your position regarding the actual popularity of many policy positions thought to be on the left of the political spectrum (so long as they aren't so labeled), but if I didn't already think I agree with that, your obnoxiousness would ensure that I never followed your links to find that out. If you want decision-makers (voters, jurors, blog commenters, purchasers of carpet) to adopt your positions, you first have to get them to listen to you. We can go on and on about how flawed people's filters really are, but at the end of the day, it is what it is and abstract correctness won't win the argument.

You apparently want to change minds, or you wouldn't be here offering your accumulated life's wisdom in lecture format to the ignorant masses. I'm trying to help you see how to get our ignorant asses to hear and understand you, because you're obviously failing, and that's sad.

So instead of barging in, telling us how your time is too important to spend much of it enlightening us, and dashing off in a cut-and-paste flurry, you need to first engage us - maybe start with one of us, suggest that you have a different opinion, show some conversational give-and-take. And then, when you seem like you might be a reasonable person simply expressing unfamiliar ideas, you need to make us curious about the actual facts. Offer to show how our ideas, sensible though they might seem, are actually at odds with available evidence. Maybe then you'll get some takers who weren't already on your side.

If, on the other hand, you're not trying to influence anyone, feel free to spout off into the ether. I'd rather you didn't use your techniques on positions I agree with, though.

to xian,well when he can't produce a simple docume...

2008-10-14T21:21:00.000-04:00

to xian,

well when he can't produce a simple document like birth cert what do you expect them to do ?? get a life. Dig for truth for the biggest scandal which is going to come up soon

by the way- we clearly have different definitions ...

2008-10-14T21:18:00.000-04:00

by the way- we clearly have different definitions of arrogance. i define it as making shit up with nothing to back it up other than my own opinion when clearly there is data to prove or disprove my position as wrong or right,b ut ignoring that data, and instead fixating on personality. You define it as I don't make you feel good while saying you should use data rather than basing arguments on what you feel to be the case. One is closer to the dictionary definition than the other. I will leave it to others to decide which is. See ultimately although we are talking politics, I believe there should still be an attempt aat some some of objective standard. Some of you clearly don't believe that. I suppose that's going to be the lasting legacy of Rovian up is down, left is right 1984 analysis. ignoring data is down to earth. Calling people idiots for ignoring facts in formulating their opinion is arrogant.

Why can't Obama close the deal with racist ignoran...

2008-10-14T21:15:00.001-04:00

Why can't Obama close the deal with racist ignorant brainwashed pro-Bush dead-enders!?

Is it the Bradley effect?

:P

isaacI am going to say something weird. When I don...

2008-10-14T21:15:00.000-04:00

isaac

I am going to say something weird. When I don't know something I politely say I don't know it rather than giving an opinion about it. In my profession, this is considered an oddity. When someone asks me something , and I say, I don't know the answer, they looked at me with bewilderment because they think "but I thought you would say you knew" x or y or z. I'll give you the same response I give to them- If I don't know something I don't see anything wrong with not knowing. My problem is where people [in this country] feel that they can give an opinion [in politics] without any basis for having it. There are vast subject matters of which I know nothing about. Some of them, many in fact, are in politics. The data about whether this is a center, right or left country isn't one of them. I happen to know the data. My problem is that rather than saying "I don't know what direction this country is" many here relied on opinion and cw. That's how we have gotten into so many messes in this country. I can go into other areas and point out what I mean- but one that comes to mind is the belief that corporations at one point because of idealogical cw could do and be everything in terms of public policy even on issues of fairness when under the law they are meant for a narrowly defined role- making money for investors. I however will not bore you with corporate law.

Folks, can't we leave the hate and name-calling at...

2008-10-14T21:13:00.000-04:00

Folks, can't we leave the hate and name-calling at the doorstep?

Anyway, I also think that Obama will win by double digits. The McCain campaign is in a terminal spiral. People have stopped listening to him and infighting among conservatives has commenced.

I think Bob Barr might be the beneficiary of this and actually make it into the high single digits. However, he needs to get some media attention. If he does, he'll end up in great shape.

In any case, I think MR is wrong ruling out some really red states switching. TX and such might just flip.

It looks like McBush is close to flat lining on th...

2008-10-14T21:08:00.000-04:00

It looks like McBush is close to flat lining on the Electoral Vote Distribution.

Well put, Isaac.

2008-10-14T21:00:00.000-04:00

Well put, Isaac.

Reelgeist -Ain't time enough in the world to learn...

2008-10-14T20:58:00.000-04:00

Reelgeist -

Ain't time enough in the world to learn everything out there, follow every link, and listen to everyone's ramblings to tease out whatever truths are there. We all use our time-tested heuristics to estimate who's worth listening to and who's likely to be a waste of time. They're crude approximations and stereotypes, like as not, but we've gotta triage demands for our attention somehow.

And coming off as an arrogant dick really doesn't get you past most people's mental gatekeeper. So it really won't matter if you're right, if all you do is make everyone hate to listen to you.

Presumably you get this reaction often, though, so there's probably no reason to expect you to reconsider your approach this time. Too bad, because I generally agree with what your position appears to be.

Now I'm responsible for the frozen credit market. ...

2008-10-14T20:57:00.001-04:00

Now I'm responsible for the frozen credit market. All I'm saying is that we don't have to be arrogant if Obama wins and maybe we could try a different kind of politics.

wow.really bored by all of you.have a great evenin...

2008-10-14T20:57:00.000-04:00

wow.
really bored by all of you.
have a great evening

My arrogance is absolutely NOT why we have a froze...

2008-10-14T20:56:00.000-04:00

My arrogance is absolutely NOT why we have a frozen credity market. I'm an economist. I saw this stuff unfolding well before it did - by using data and facts.

Using quantitative analysis to study the economy and trying to twist it to analyze whether something is ideologically "center-left" or "center-right" is a completely different thing.

You never challenged my assertion that the country is "center-right" on gun ownership. Do you disagree? If so, I'd love to see the statistic to prove otherwise.