Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Why Palin Will Run for President in 2012

She will, she loves attention and wants to stay in...

2009-11-18T20:50:04.685-05:00

She will, she loves attention and wants to stay in the spotlight of America!
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I seriously doubt Palin herself knows what she wan...

2009-11-18T20:02:20.571-05:00

I seriously doubt Palin herself knows what she wants to do, other than increase her wealth and celebrity status.

I think there is a reasonable possibility (perhaps 1/3) that Palin is the 2012 candidate of choice. Then there is a very high likelihood she loses to Obama.

The question for Palin, if she is rational, which is an assumption I am not at all sure we can make, is whether the likelihood of losing a second time in a national election overall hurts her media image. If she loses, but raises her star financial value, she may well say, why not?

Nevermind, I found it. Mule said on Nov. !4th, 200...

2009-11-18T03:30:43.748-05:00

Nevermind, I found it. Mule said on Nov. !4th, 2009;

As it stands, I'm hanging it up and retiring for good. From henceforth, you'll never see me in the pages of fivethirtyeight.com. I wish you all well, even those who remain so vehemently opposed to me and everything I stand for.

I've enjoyed chatting with many of you over the past year-and-a-half, but it's time to move on to bigger and better things.

Any bets on how long this lasts? Agree that he should be the pardoned turkey.

What happened to Muley? Did I miss him storm off i...

2009-11-18T03:20:30.573-05:00

What happened to Muley? Did I miss him storm off in a huff again?

CHARLES IIRC the trigger under NY election law is...

2009-11-18T02:43:27.093-05:00

CHARLES

IIRC the trigger under NY election law is a result within .005%

NY-23 looks like there were about 149,000 total votes including all absentee ballots

so unless Hoffman gets within what - 745 votes of Owens, there will be no 'recount' triggered

and that does not look likely [OK, it looks highly improbable] - unless they find a few BIG missing ballot boxes full of Hoffman votes only

final margin most likely will remain north of 2000 for Owens

From the Oxford English Dictionary, "rogue": 1. ...

2009-11-18T02:09:29.322-05:00

From the Oxford English Dictionary, "rogue":

1. a. One belonging to a class of idle vagrants or vagabonds.
2. a. A dishonest, unprincipled person; a rascal.
3. One who is of a mischievous disposition.
5. a. An elephant driven away, or living apart, from the herd, and of a savage or destructive disposition.
6. b. Something that is inexplicably faulty or defective.
6. c. That which lacks appropriate control; something which is irresponsible or undisciplined.
rogue state n. a state perceived to be flouting international law and threatening the security of other nations.

America’s elite and Palin-haters worldwide should ...

2009-11-18T01:35:30.762-05:00

America’s elite and Palin-haters worldwide should not be so quick to dismiss or disregard the future of Sarah Palin. No other national political figure so completely fills Middle America’s vacuum of frustration and hate for the Left and Right as Sarah Palin.

Middle America has been abandoned by the Left and Right, who have saddled it with a $700 billion taxpayer bailout, an unnecessary and costly war, a soaring deficit, and an overall neglect of the pocketbook issues that impact Middle America every day. Where are job creation, quality public education, affordable healthcare, and fiscal responsibility, to name a few?

Middle America is mad as hell at the Left and Right and they just might be willing to roll the dice on someone like Palin, who lacks an Ivy League education, is a working class hockey-mom with a disabled child, and who has blue-collar roots like many of the folks in Middle America. The status quo on the Left and Right have produced nothing material for Middle America, which may toss conventional wisdom into the toilet and throw the lever for Palin, figuring it has nothing to lose, and it may be right.

The Ivy League educated on the Left and Right have delivered little to nothing for Middle America, perhaps precisely because they are out of touch with the issues that someone like Palin understands personally.

However, to say that Palin is a salmon swimming upstream is an understatement. The results of a CBS News survey released Monday indicate that 66 percent of respondents do not want her to run for the White House in 2012. Seventy percent of respondents to a CNN/Opinion Research poll said she is not qualified to be president.

More difficult for Palin is the fact that the trend is not her friend—public opinion is moving in the wrong direction right now.

In the CBS survey, 43 percent of GOP respondents said Palin would have the ability to be an effective president. Only 11 percent of Democrats and 29 percent of independents agreed.

However, there is an opportunity for Palin among independents, where Palin’s rating is 41 percent favorable, and 48 percent unfavorable, according to Gallup.

These numbers are not great, but there is plenty of time if she can move the needle by appealing to Middle America and independents, which is where elections are won or lost.

Clearly, Palin has put the monkey on her back, especially with her resignation from Alaska’s governorship in July, a self-inflicted wound that will be difficult to explain away. However, don’t put it past Palin to put lipstick on this pig and paint herself as a victim of politically motivated and baseless ethics charges that prevented her from successfully serving the people of Alaska, forcing her to do the noble thing and take the bullet by resigning.

We can say what we want about Palin, but no Republican in recent history has created such frenzied excitement across the country as she has. Just take a look at the fervor she stirs as she wheels across Middle America on her book tour.

Perhaps this is a misreading of the tea leaves, but one could argue that she creates a wee bit more excitement than Mitt Romney or Mike Huckabee, the two Republican front-runners for president in 2012. In the land of the blind, the one-eyed woman just may be queen.

A. Muser
http://americanmuser.wordpress.com/

Good point, Juris. I say we pardon Mule Rider, for...

2009-11-18T01:25:45.356-05:00

Good point, Juris. I say we pardon Mule Rider, for his selfless act of ridding this site of its primary jackass.

Yeah, we all know it won't last. But we should enjoy it while we can.

Wow. I'm amazed at the number of Teabaggers who th...

2009-11-18T01:25:34.696-05:00

Wow. I'm amazed at the number of Teabaggers who think the left has fabricated the whole moniker for them. They're convinced that they didn't accidentally use the term without knowing the alternate meaning. Talk about denial.

@Pan: OK, but which troll is to be pardoned this ...

2009-11-18T00:49:40.478-05:00

@Pan: OK, but which troll is to be pardoned this year?

I hereby nominate Charles for the First Annual 538...

2009-11-18T00:25:01.630-05:00

I hereby nominate Charles for the First Annual 538 Troll of the Year Award (TM).

Said award should be presented on the traditional day for turkeys - Thanksgiving.

Suggest 2nd definition for Teabagger: 2. n. one w...

2009-11-17T23:46:39.623-05:00

Suggest 2nd definition for Teabagger:

2. n. one who is unaware of the sexual double entendre of their name

FILISTRO lol - glad you picked up on the subtle s...

2009-11-17T22:38:10.037-05:00

FILISTRO

lol - glad you picked up on the subtle sarcasm of that last comment

yeah, 'frien' is how many ESL or phonetically challenged people [as well as southern drawlers] speak & spell friend anyway

but it does sorta make sense in a convoluted 'chuck' kinda way

WV - blueew - a nor'easter blueew threw heyah last week [or VA was turning blueew - but not so much this year]

"frien"... wow, that's pretty subtle, DCM. (It so...

2009-11-17T22:25:02.300-05:00

"frien"... wow, that's pretty subtle, DCM.

(It sounds like the speech of somebody who's just had a couple of extra beverages.)

I think anybody smart enough to pick up on that is too smart to drop as a friend.

WV..."bievel": Evel Kneivel's stage name after being sadly reduced to doing his stunts on a mountain bike

I prefer to use the term 'frien' see, you just dr...

2009-11-17T22:16:41.449-05:00

I prefer to use the term 'frien'

see, you just drop the 'd' so they have been de-frien[d]ed or un-frien[d]ed

of course it is also a common typo, but...

WV - provel [say 'cheese']

I think "defriend" is probably the more accurate p...

2009-11-17T22:09:10.479-05:00

I think "defriend" is probably the more accurate prefix. "De-" implies divestment, ie you once were friends but are no longer, while "un-" suggests absence, implying that you never had/were friends.

"Teabagger" on the other hand is an exquisitely appropriate term. What ELSE are you going to call people who are running around with teabags hanging from their hats?

Okay, okay... I'll admit some other words do suggest themselves, but "teabagger" is probably most descriptive (and least scatalogical.)

SHILOH of course back in the '80's when Brady too...

2009-11-17T22:08:59.039-05:00

SHILOH

of course back in the '80's when Brady took a bullet meant for RR, it was widely 'suspected' that Ronnie did die & had an actor double stand in for him

witness the movie a few years later 'DAVE" with Kevin Klein as a stand-in for a POTUS in a coma...

coincidence or based on reality ???

or was it like in 'V' where they just create a new lizard in the same old skin as RR...

how many fingers did RR have [no, that was another alien invasion plot iirc...]

Charle's post count gets out of hand at times. But...

2009-11-17T22:05:45.422-05:00

Charle's post count gets out of hand at times. But at least when he does there isn't talk about shoving shit down someone's throat till they choke.

I find him oddly entertaining. Most of the time. He's sort of like Stephen Colbert....hold on a moment. Charles, are you Stephen Colbert?

Not just Oxford, that darn openly closeted Anderso...

2009-11-17T22:01:24.387-05:00

Not just Oxford, that darn openly closeted Anderson Cooper is in on the conspiracy, too. :)

P.S. I prefer "defriend". I find it has a more impersonal tone to it, which is the point IMO. But I'm pretty sure it's the less common usage.

Charles is a nice replacement for Mule Rider, even...

2009-11-17T21:59:16.109-05:00

Charles is a nice replacement for Mule Rider, even if he did show up before the assman left. He's just as wrong as Mule, only without the physical threats. The only problem is that Charles is becoming a big of a one trick pony. It always comes back to either the birther nonsense or the homophobia. Mule Rider was capable about being wrong on a wide variety of topics, from politics to cosmology.

filistro said... I like Charles. He's always ...

2009-11-17T21:51:10.202-05:00

filistro said...

I like Charles. He's always wrong, but he's dogged. And though he is frequently (and deservedly) abused, he doesn't respond in kind. He just plods on, being doggedly wrong.

I admire doggedness.
~~~~~~~~~~

Again, all I ask for is consistency and Charles is consistently doggedly wrong and as Jacob says, entertaining as his friendly baiting is harmless.

Re: Reagan and 666, maybe this is why he beat Tecumseh's curse "Zero year factor ~ every (20) years" because Satan was on Reagan's side! lol

ie

1840 ~ William Henry Harrison ~ Pneumonia

1860 ~ Abraham Lincoln ~ Assassinated

1880 ~ James Garfield ~ Assassinated

1900 ~ William McKinley ~ Assassinated

1920 ~ Warren G. Harding ~ Uncertain: Heart attack, stroke, or possibly poison

1940 ~ Franklin D. Roosevelt ~ Cerebral hemorrhage

1960 ~ John F. Kennedy ~ Assassinated

1980 ~ Ronald Reagan ~ Attempted assassination - injured but not killed

and it alternated as Harrison died in his 1st term, Lincoln his 2nd, Garfield 1st, McKinley 2nd, Harding 1st, FDR 2nd after being elected in a "zero" year, JFK 1st.

Was at sea when Reagan was shot and knew he wouldn't die 'cause he was suppose to die in his 2nd term.

So Reagan beat Tecumseh's curse as he and Ailes/Atwater sold their souls to the devil. :)

From Palin to Obama to Reagan to Tecumseh ...

btw, Palin is no Reagan or Tecumseh ;)

p.s. not a good run for Ohio from 1880 to 1920.

carry on

oh dear... If you go to the comments section on m...

2009-11-17T21:35:13.511-05:00

oh dear...

If you go to the comments section on my "word of the year" link (above) it appears the teabaggers are pretty damn ticked off about this. They clearly think Oxford University Press is part of some great left wing conspiracy that's out to smear their Tea Parties with nasty sexual innuendo.

(The kids who think the WOTY should be "defriend" instead of "unfriend" are also royally pissed.... but their arguments are more cogent.)

very illuminating well done - better than the 'wo...

2009-11-17T21:09:23.125-05:00

very illuminating

well done - better than the 'words of the day' that I receive by email

I'll take 'teabagger' for 2 cents. Alec

Well, I guess this settles it. Today, from Oxford...

2009-11-17T21:02:58.698-05:00

Well, I guess this settles it.

Today, from Oxford University Press, the candidates for "word of the year":

Politics and Current Affairs

Ardi – (Ardipithecus ramidus) oldest known hominid, discovered in Ethiopia during the 1990s and announced to the public in 2009

birther – a conspiracy theorist who challenges President Obama’s birth certificate

choice mom – a person who chooses to be a single mother

death panel – a theoretical body that determines which patients deserve to live, when care is rationed

teabagger -a person, who protests President Obama’s tax policies and stimulus package, often through local demonstrations known as “Tea Party” protests (in allusion to the Boston Tea Party of 1773)

Take THAT, teabaggers!!!

CHARLES here is my last UPDATE tonight on NY-23 [...

2009-11-17T20:58:50.999-05:00

CHARLES

here is my last UPDATE tonight on NY-23 [just for you]:

http://www.watertowndailytimes.com/section/blogs09

'NY-23 absentee counts'
JUDE SEYMOUR
First published: November 17, 2009 at 1:27 pm
Last modified: November 17, 2009 at 8:53 pm

Three counties - Oneida, Madison and Hamilton - in the 23rd Congressional District have counted their absentee votes and reported tallies.

This table places each candidate's absentee votes in parentheses next to each candidate's election night total.

Owens Hoffman Dede
Clinton 10536 (0) 7530 (0) 686 (0)
Essex 3718 (0) 3175 (0) 432 (0)
Franklin 5,125 (0) 4,589 (0) 247(0)
Fulton 1969 (0) 2489 (0) 676 (0)
Hamilton 888 (60) 1184 (85) 293 (87)
Jefferson 10460 (115) 10884 (113) 1179 (132)
Lewis 2169 (0) 2676 (0) 282 (0)
Madison 8087 (203) 8985 (170) 602 (122)
Oneida 2024 (219) 2779 (446) 362 (97)
Oswego 11000 (0) 12748 (0) 950 (0)
St. Lawrence 12987 (0) 8748 (0) 1,194 (0)

Total 69,560 66,601 7,331
Percentages 48.5 - 46.4 - 5.1
Owens leads 2,959

Note: Jefferson County's numbers are incomplete; only 27 percent of absentees have been counted.

In the completed counties, Mr. Hoffman has picked up 44.0 percent of the absentee vote, Mr. Owens has gathered 32.3 percent of the absentee vote and Ms. Scozzafava got 23.7 percent of the absentee vote.

>>> [summary] Mr. Hoffman now trails Mr. Owens by 2,959 votes, with 5,570 absentee ballots left to be counted.
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so the Hoff is goin' down [again]

WV - munch [too funnie]