Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Some Likely Voter Models are Suspect

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2009-07-22T04:41:51.217-04:00

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2009-03-25T03:50:00.000-04:00

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^^ very nice 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社, 徵...

2009-03-12T04:36:00.001-04:00

^^ nice blog!! ^@^徵信, 徵信網, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵...

2009-03-12T04:36:00.000-04:00

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2009-02-08T22:22:00.000-05:00

ohmigosh!lions n tigers n bears!oh my!nate you kno...

2008-10-23T16:48:00.000-04:00

ohmigosh!
lions n tigers n bears!
oh my!
nate you know young people cant and don't "count"
good work keep it up
nancymidget

The AP sample is basically the 2004 snapshot probl...

2008-10-23T11:05:00.000-04:00

The AP sample is basically the 2004 snapshot problem Nate's talked about before. They gutted 18-29 year olds when going from a raw sample that was 47-38 Obama to a likely sample of 44-43. They went from 23 percent 18-29 year olds to 15 percent - lower than either the 2004 or 2006 elections (although not much lower than 2004) and with no clue about the trend of young voter turnout in this cycle.

Have you even watched an election before? Register...

2008-10-23T10:29:00.000-04:00

Have you even watched an election before? Registered voter versus likely voter model disparities are nothing new. Nor is the fact that register voters always skew democratic compared to both likely voter and actual election outcome. Nor is your explanation about how likely voters are determined accurate. You imply that voting history is the only relevant factor and can completely override the statements of the respondent. This is false; both are considered. Really, you people are celebrating this as intelligent analysis? Welcome to politics, you're obviously new here.

I was registering voters in Germantown, Philadelph...

2008-10-23T09:14:00.000-04:00

I was registering voters in Germantown, Philadelphia, a largely Black neighborhood, and couldn't find many unregistered voters -- everyone I talked to on a busy corner was not only registered, but excited and enthusiastic. I think Black turnout is going to blow people away.

I also just had work done by a Puerto Rican contractor who told me he and his whole family, and as much of his crew as he can convince, are newly registered and voting for Obama.

"Wouldn't the Dow's all-time low be, like, "1"?"No...

2008-10-23T03:37:00.001-04:00

"Wouldn't the Dow's all-time low be, like, "1"?"

No.

The Dow's all-time low was 28.48 in the summer of 1896. So, 1 was pretty close.

"Wouldn't the Dow's all-time low be, like, "1"?"No...

2008-10-23T03:37:00.000-04:00

"Wouldn't the Dow's all-time low be, like, "1"?"

No.

The Dow's all-time low was 28.48 in the summer of 1896. So, 1 was pretty close.

'tell me why you think what you're doing is good s...

2008-10-23T01:15:00.000-04:00

'tell me why you think what you're doing is good science.'

Please. Crooked pollsters are doing good [for them] politics, not good science.

It's like asking a rhetorical hack why he thinks his racist, fear-mongering, non-scientific political arguments are "logical". The question misses the point.

This will no doubt get buried here, but there is s...

2008-10-22T22:21:00.000-04:00

This will no doubt get buried here, but there is something pretty strange about the two Gallup likely voter models. The "traditional" model, which would appear to have a tighter screen (since it tests both current voting inclination and past voting behavior) actually has *more* voters than the "new" model. Why this is is entirely unclear (one could certainly come up with reasonable theories, but they are just that), but it definitely suggests that the difference between the two models is not as simple as Nate's summary appears to suggest.

This will no doubt get buried here, but there is s...

2008-10-22T22:16:00.000-04:00

Can you please use hyphens a bit more aggressively...

2008-10-22T22:06:00.000-04:00

Can you please use hyphens a bit more aggressively? A "likely voter model" is a voter model that is likely; a "likely-voter model" is a model to predict likely voters.

I love the site.

Hmmm... Not to plug Excel as a good statistical p...

2008-10-22T21:06:00.000-04:00

Hmmm... Not to plug Excel as a good statistical platform (it's not), but MCMC can be implemented in Excel, last I checked. So nothing this site does should be considered proprietary, or black-box, or anything inaccessible to the common Joe; Nate is a sophisticated and diligent practitioner of widely known principles, is all. (As if that's so little.) No need to invoke bias until the central model has been debunked, which I don't see happening.

I actually go to Franklin & Marshall college, and ...

2008-10-22T20:17:00.000-04:00

I actually go to Franklin & Marshall college, and I am annoyed on your behalf! I wish I knew who at this school actually conducted the poll so I could go have a chat with them. I have been saying all of this about polls completely misrepresenting voter turnout for weeks now. I will be gratified to see the numbers reflect this on election night, because that's what matters!

This is interesting. Another option that wasn't di...

2008-10-22T19:50:00.000-04:00

This is interesting. Another option that wasn't discussed was the number of people who crossed over party lines just to vote against Hillary Clinton. It was more than a few people in my neck of the woods. And frankly in the general election, many of those will simply vote Republican. I don't know how that plays out down the line.

Nate - you said "On the other hand, voters who are...

2008-10-22T19:37:00.000-04:00

Nate - you said "On the other hand, voters who are newly registered have quite literally demonstrated their interest in the 2008 campaign; they are in fact quite likely to vote." But some sites, e.g. http://thehill.com/david-hill/newly--registered-non-voters-2008-09-30.html, assert that in 04, newly registered voters, notwithstanding the enthusiasm the registration showed, did not vote. Hopefully, you have a rejoinder to this.

Thank god for Nate Silver! I looked at the discre...

2008-10-22T18:28:00.000-04:00

Thank god for Nate Silver! I looked at the discrepency between the likely voter vs. actual responses for the AP poll this morning showing 1% difference and I have to say... its been driving me nuts trying to figure it out. Now I don't have to and that's why I say... thank god for Nate Silver

I LOVE the state of Washington, it is my home stat...

2008-10-22T18:13:00.000-04:00

I LOVE the state of Washington, it is my home state, but it is solid Obama...we need a poll of Montana.

emily, cut him some slack..People use a generic he...

2008-10-22T17:51:00.001-04:00

emily, cut him some slack..

People use a generic he all the time. Just like they use the word Man in 'Man invented Fire'.

@ cloud9ine,Funny about the voter fraud.

2008-10-22T17:51:00.000-04:00

@ cloud9ine,

Funny about the voter fraud.

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/12/washington/12fra...

2008-10-22T17:48:00.000-04:00

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/12/washington/12fraud.html?pagewanted=print

Crappy blogger.

Nate, you're the best, but what's with the generic...

2008-10-22T17:47:00.001-04:00

Nate, you're the best, but what's with the generic "he"? Voters who go by "she" deserve a little recognition, no? Why not use "s/he" or alternating pronouns rather than leaving more than 50% of the population out?

Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Some Likely Voter Models are Suspect

キャッシング 網頁設計 クレジットカード 現金化 ダンボール 留学 水 通販 ウィークリ...

牙醫,植牙,假牙|矯正|牙周病,牙醫診所、植牙,紋身,刺青,創業,批發,TATTOO,皮膚科,痘痘,...

^^ very nice 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社, 徵...

^^ nice blog!! ^@^徵信, 徵信網, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵...

徵信社, 感情挽回, 挽回感情, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 捉姦, 徵信公司, ...

ohmigosh!lions n tigers n bears!oh my!nate you kno...

The AP sample is basically the 2004 snapshot probl...

Have you even watched an election before? Register...

I was registering voters in Germantown, Philadelph...

"Wouldn't the Dow's all-time low be, like, "1"?"No...

"Wouldn't the Dow's all-time low be, like, "1"?"No...

'tell me why you think what you're doing is good s...

This will no doubt get buried here, but there is s...

This will no doubt get buried here, but there is s...

Can you please use hyphens a bit more aggressively...

Hmmm... Not to plug Excel as a good statistical p...

I actually go to Franklin & Marshall college, and ...

This is interesting. Another option that wasn't di...

Nate - you said "On the other hand, voters who are...

Thank god for Nate Silver! I looked at the discre...

I LOVE the state of Washington, it is my home stat...

emily, cut him some slack..People use a generic he...

@ cloud9ine,Funny about the voter fraud.

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/12/washington/12fra...

Nate, you're the best, but what's with the generic...

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