Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Today's Polls, 10/15

徵信社, 感情挽回, 挽回感情, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 捉姦, 徵信公司, ...

2009-02-08T21:53:00.000-05:00

徵信社, 感情挽回, 挽回感情, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 捉姦, 徵信公司, ...

2009-02-08T21:33:00.000-05:00

徵信社, 感情挽回, 挽回感情, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 捉姦, 徵信公司, ...

2009-02-08T21:23:00.000-05:00

情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,...

2009-01-18T01:53:00.000-05:00

How/when did AR get so close?

2008-10-16T13:26:00.000-04:00

How/when did AR get so close?

How do you go from "Polling Average" to "Trend-Adj...

2008-10-16T13:24:00.000-04:00

How do you go from "Polling Average" to "Trend-Adjusted" in the state numbers. Seems to be adding points to Obama and drawing down McCain everywhere I spot-checked. Look particularly odd in WV where the polls show McCain +1.9 but you have Obama 52% to win.

I live in Missouri and I can tell you that for the...

2008-10-16T01:06:00.000-04:00

I live in Missouri and I can tell you that for the past two weeks, I have not seen a McCain ad. I have just started seeing the 'No Obama, NRA' ad--but that was only 2 days ago; and it was countered by the MODNC's print ad about Obama and the 2nd Amend. Tonight after the debate, which I channel surfed all over, I saw at least 6 Obama ads--the POSITIVE ones which reinforce his message on the economy, healthcare and CHANGE.

So, (I don't know if you get to read this far) you...

2008-10-15T23:12:00.000-04:00

So, (I don't know if you get to read this far) you have mentioned a few times that you see the model indicating that Obama is starting to make gains among x group, etc. Is this anything quantifiable that you would be able to post and update regularly? Like, the most statistically significant factors and which candidate they are going for by how much? I don't know the best way to format it, but I think it might be an interesting thing to look at.

2008 Presidential Results.DC- 94-6 (Obama-D)3HI- 6...

2008-10-15T21:23:00.000-04:00

2008 Presidential Results.
DC- 94-6 (Obama-D)3
HI- 65-33 (Obama-D)7
VT- 64-34 (Obama-D)10
MD- 64-34 (Obama-D)20
NY- 63-36 (Obama-D)51
MA- 62-37 (Obama-D)63
DE- 60-38 (Obama-D)66
RI- 59-37 (Obama-D)70
CT- 58-39 (Obama-D)77
IL- 58-40 (Obama-D)98
CA- 57-41 (Obama-D)153
IA- 57-41 (Obama-D)160
WA- 56-42 (Obama-D)171
ME- 56-42 (Obama-D)175
OR- 56-43 (Obama-D)182
NJ- 55-42 (Obama-D)197
WI- 55-43 (Obama-D)207
PA- 55-43 (Obama-D)228
MI- 54-44 (Obama-D)245
MN- 54-44 (Obama-D)255
NH- 53-44 (Obama-D)259
VA- 53-46 (Obama-D)272(Obama wins)
CO- 52-46 (Obama-D)
NM- 52-46 (Obama-D)
FL- 52-47 (Obama-D)
OH- 51-47 (Obama-D)
NV- 51-48 (Obama-D)
MO- 50-49 (Obama-D)200
NC- 50-49 (Obama-D)189
WV- 49-49 (TIE)174
IN- 48-50 (McCain-R)169
AR- 48-50 (McCain-R)158
ND- 47-51 (McCain-R)152
GA- 47-52 (McCain-R)149
MT- 46-52 (McCain-R)134
LA- 46-52 (McCain-R)131
SD- 45-53 (McCain-R)122
MS- 45-53 (McCain-R)119
SC- 43-55 (McCain-R)113
TX- 43-55 (McCain-R)105
AZ- 43-56 (McCain-R)71
KY- 43-56 (McCain-R)61
TN- 42-56 (McCain-R)53
KS- 42-56 (McCain-R)42
AK- 41-57 (McCain-R)36
NE- 40-57 (McCain-R)33
AL- 40-59 (McCain-R)28
UT- 38-60 (McCain-R)19
OK- 37-62 (McCain-R)14
ID- 36-62 (McCain-R)7
WY- 34-65 (McCain-R)3

"Fannie and Freddie" reference. DRINK!

2008-10-15T21:04:00.000-04:00

"Fannie and Freddie" reference. DRINK!

I'm like you mc9cain -- easier not to watch and "v...

2008-10-15T20:53:00.000-04:00

I'm like you mc9cain -- easier not to watch and "view" it second hand through the blogs and comments.

I just wanted to say to GaMeS:Your argument about ...

2008-10-15T20:51:00.000-04:00

I just wanted to say to GaMeS:
Your argument about voter fraud and racial profiling was so wonderfully laid out, so comprehensively explained I jsut thought you should get some props. Seriously. The fear of Arab Terrorism and "voter" fraud (actually voter registration fraud but lets not get picky) are so illusory that it boggles the mind. If your constantly afraid of boogeymen how can you make a calm and rational argument or decision. Please think through your positions. MY dad has voted Republican in every election in which he has voted. Nixon. TWICE. Bush? TWICE. He's voting for Obama. WHy? Because all though he is conservative he hjas taken this opportunity to actually question h is ideology and beliefs in the light of ew circumstances. Republicanism is now all about doubling down. Crazy

Need to know if I should donate money to Obama's w...

2008-10-15T20:39:00.000-04:00

Need to know if I should donate money to Obama's website, or to a senate race that is tight (if the latter, am I allowed to if I do not reside in that state? And also, If I can....I was thinking of donating for Hagan...that way we can have no Doles and no Bush's in American politics anymore!)

One thought --

http://www.actblue.com/page/meta-analysis-08

Sam Wang's statistical analysis of where senate donations can be most effective.

JustinUse Nate's Senate race scorecard (right side...

2008-10-15T20:37:00.000-04:00

Justin

Use Nate's Senate race scorecard (right side) as a good place to start.

<< just donated $100.00 to Obama for American Camp...

2008-10-15T20:34:00.001-04:00

<< just donated $100.00 to Obama for American Campaign.

The well is now dry...lol. $400.00 over the course of the campaign.

One less Christmas gift this year.

ryan,I think they had to fill some copy space and ...

2008-10-15T20:34:00.000-04:00

ryan,
I think they had to fill some copy space and they had some big US maps for a lot of it. The headline is about a landslide being a sure thing. Of course it isn't. That's what the article started with as the question and ended with the answer of no. No one IS predicting a landslide (who knows anything). Most (including Nate) are saying that a possibility exists for it. Period.

justin:Obama's going to need that money when the R...

2008-10-15T20:32:00.000-04:00

justin:

Obama's going to need that money when the RNC unleashes their coffers in a 72 hour push/smear campaign.

How about this.

You donate the $25 to Obama, and i'll donate $25 to Hagen. Right now.

Obama is going to carry all of the Gore/Kerry Stat...

2008-10-15T20:31:00.000-04:00

Obama is going to carry all of the Gore/Kerry States including IA,NH,and NM. 264ev. plus

CO,VA,OH,NV,= 311ev.

FL and MO are leaning Obama

AR,IN,NC,and WV are tossups.

Hmm...I really haven't been keeping on top of sena...

2008-10-15T20:30:00.001-04:00

Hmm...I really haven't been keeping on top of senate races so I don't know all the dirty things out there really....You see in my state we have Robertson and...ugh...hang on let me vomit before I say his name...okay Sam Brownback. Both of which always get re-elected...them and the NRA sockpuppet Todd Tihart...
anywho, I don't really know what senate races have a very good chance, or a 40/60ish chance of going D so any further feedback I could get on which race will be more beneficial I would greatly appreciate it
I know my fellow Dems out there would like to say they all are 50/50 out there...but I just don't quite buy all that....yet

Amazing:The Sacramento County Republican Party com...

2008-10-15T20:30:00.000-04:00

Amazing:

The Sacramento County Republican Party compared Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., to terrorist leader Osama bin Laden, urging voters to "Waterboard Barack Obama."

http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/2008/10/stay-classy-sac.html

First live blog thread up

2008-10-15T20:29:00.001-04:00

First live blog thread up

Eric,Thanks--it's obviously really important to me...

2008-10-15T20:29:00.000-04:00

Eric,

Thanks--it's obviously really important to me that this goes well. Believe it or not, I've ordinarily been strenuously apolitical. Bush 04 changed all of that. I just want my country back now!

I'm sorry but Hillary Clinton is no Emma Thompson....

2008-10-15T20:27:00.000-04:00

I'm sorry but Hillary Clinton is no Emma Thompson. I was a big Hillary supporter but Emma Thompson would kick her ass!

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ynews/20081015/pl_ynews/yn...

2008-10-15T20:26:00.004-04:00

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ynews/20081015/pl_ynews/ynews_pl87

Hey Nate,

This yahoo story clumsily twists some of your words to make it seem like Obama really isn't that far ahead. God I have shitty reporters...It's difficult to even understand what their supposed logic should mean in the context.

Wait...grr...was it a necklace or bracelet...I can...

2008-10-15T20:26:00.003-04:00

Wait...grr...was it a necklace or bracelet...I can't remember...
guess what's getting added to Netflix que right now........