Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Is Charlie Black Right?

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2009-10-08T08:47:38.975-04:00

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2009-03-11T05:45:00.001-04:00

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2009-03-11T05:45:00.000-04:00

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2009-02-09T06:25:00.000-05:00

Hmmm not much diversity here is there? Seems like ...

2008-06-26T01:37:00.000-04:00

Hmmm not much diversity here is there? Seems like most of you liberal folks got it figured out. I personally think that no matter how terrible an attack would be, America would, in the words of a previous poster, "rally round the flag" because that's what it has always done. Regardless of how unpopular Mr. Bush is, an attack would awaken patriotism, and patriotism usually leads to folks voting Republican. As sad as this is, history can't be denied.

Actually, security analysts predict that there wil...

2008-06-24T21:46:00.000-04:00

Actually, security analysts predict that there will be a nuclear attack on the US within the next 8 years. So another 9/11 may be minor.

Nate and most of you seem to be missing the point....

2008-06-24T17:38:00.000-04:00

Nate and most of you seem to be missing the point. It flat DOESN'T MATTER whether a terrorist attack would be good or bad for McCain! IT'S TOTALLY OUTRAGEOUS to be looking at a disaster for the country in terms of partisan political advantage.

That's why McCain rushed to repudiate the comments and forced Black to issue his half-hearted apology.

It's exactly like Hillary saying that "anything can happen in June" and mentioning that June was the month RFK was assasinated. It isn't that she's really saying "Hey! Anything could happen. Obama could be assasinated so I should stay in the race." But, it sounded like she was saying that and it's just a terrible thing to say.

This is completely the same. You might privately think that a terrorist attack would be the best thing since sliced-bread for McCain but it's totally inexcuasable to talk about it on national TV!

Obama has to hammer McCain and demand that he fire Black, both for his lobbying connections and his inexcusable remarks.

The GOP has been running as the "National Security...

2008-06-24T16:57:00.000-04:00

The GOP has been running as the "National Security" party for years. Another attack would naturally draw that claim into question. Combine that with the historical disapproval ratings of Bush and Republicans in general, and cynicism may just win out over the natural "rally round the flag" impulse.

Of course, it will depend on the size of the attack and how the campaigns react to it. The biggest backlash could come if either McCain or Obama is seen as trying to politicize the attack. They attacks WILL be politicized. But what matters is which side is perceived as doing it first.

Remember, the Madrid bombings probably contributed to Azner's loss in Spain partially because voters perceived him as trying to capitalize on it.

We already had another terrorist attack: the anthr...

2008-06-24T16:20:00.000-04:00

We already had another terrorist attack: the anthrax attacks, which President Bush called "a second wave of terrorist attacks upon our country."

All I know is that it scares me that the Republica...

2008-06-24T15:25:00.000-04:00

All I know is that it scares me that the Republicans think an "October surprise" terrorist attack would help McCain, and the person in charge of stopping such an attack is George W. Bush, who already has one "slip" under his belt. The Republicans are going to be looking at a tsunami loss this November, and I personally can't put it past them to "let one slip" in a desperate attempt to salvage their electoral chances at the last minute. That is what scares me:

http://www.thepersonalispolitical.com/2008/06/terrorist-attack-mccains-miracle.html

Remember Oklahoma City? Right after it hit, Rush ...

2008-06-24T13:14:00.000-04:00

Remember Oklahoma City?

Right after it hit, Rush and the other radio cons (FOX didn't exist yet) were saying that we had to hunt down and execute the dirty Arabs behind it.

But when it was found that WHITE people -- conservative people -- gummint-hating white people like Rush's core listening population -- were behind the attacks, suddenly Rush and the other gabbers went all touchy-feely on us: "We must try to UNDERSTAND their MOTIVES!" they kept saying. See, white people have motives, brown people aren't allowed motives.

Evidently, some fool thinks it will accomplish som...

2008-06-24T10:40:00.000-04:00

Evidently, some fool thinks it will accomplish something to keep posting "Everyone knows it's true," despite overwhelming evidence that in fact hardly anyone thinks it's true. I doubt even Charlie Black believes it himself.

Nate and many posters are wisely pointing out that there is no such thing as a generic "terrorist attack" anyway.

As we speak, Cedar Rapids is pretty much underwater and it doesn't look likely that anyone at FEMA can do much about it. Plus, where's the National Guard? Why would anyone in a disaster (whether caused by humans or nature) get the idea to say, "Hey, Republicans can help us! From the wonderful folks who brought you Iraq and Katrina! That's who we need!"

Nah, it wasn't shrewd. It was a blunder. Even McC...

2008-06-24T09:29:00.000-04:00

Nah, it wasn't shrewd. It was a blunder. Even McCain says what Black was quoted as saying "Is not true." It got McCain off message -- let's see, what was supposed to be the big message from the campaign yesterday or today? And now the big story that is being covered is Obama and Clinton, and that will likely dominate the next few days.

This I think is a shrewdly good move on the part o...

2008-06-24T09:16:00.000-04:00

This I think is a shrewdly good move on the part of Charlie Black, who is trying to play the part of the Rove figure, the evil genius behind the campaign. First, everyone knows it's true, it's only audacious to SAY so. Second, he grabs the headlines for a day or two. Third, he frames the issue for McCain: it's about getting attacked or not getting attacked, not about foreign occupation or erosion of civil liberties or a culture of fear. And fourth, it changes the subject to the only issue where McCain is strong.

By doing it himself, Black draws the negative attention that would damage McCain if the candidate said such a thing. Grudging kudos to Black, a perfect Rove move -- notice Burton's carefully turned response, addressing the politics rather than the substance of the claim.

Nate Silver: "Or, a fairly serious incident on U.S...

2008-06-24T08:52:00.000-04:00

Nate Silver: "Or, a fairly serious incident on U.S. soil, but one perpetuated by a domestic terror group?"

Yes. There seems to be a general, and IMO unwarranted, assumption that a terror attack would help the Republicans.

But what if there were another wingnut attack, ala Timothy McVeigh? Frankly, that would be the most likely vector for a domestic attack.

On the other hand, an Al-Qaeda attack might well provoke people to ask, rightly, "Why isn't bin Laden dead yet?"

I don't see how either scenario helps the Republicans.

.

Four years ago, in June 2004, the WaPo published a...

2008-06-24T08:26:00.000-04:00

Four years ago, in June 2004, the WaPo published a poll, and a story, saying that Americans though the Democrats (and Kerry) would be better able to protect the country from terrorism than the Republicans (and Bush). Kerry went right after Bush on this point, "against conventional wisdom," it was said in a couple of newspapers.

That was a real turnabout from the situation in which Bush had found himself right after 9/11, when his approval rating topped 90% and the Republicans rode the anti-terrorism horse into Baghdad. (Bush's approval rating had dropped 20-30 points by then, but rose for a month or so just before and after the fall of Baghdad.)

What had happened by June 2004 to make the Democrats the party seen as better able to fight terrorism? Partly it was that frothy claims and expectations about Iraq; the insurgency; American war deaths.

But more than that, in February through June of 2004 there had been nothing but a PR disaster for the Bush administration as months of hearings and disclosures by the 9/11 commission (and also the Michael Moore's film and wide publicity of "The Pet Goat" and Bush being on vacation prior to 9/11) had torn the cover off of the shining anti-terrorism machine. Condoleeza Rice's "undressing" during the hearings was a PR disaster as well. That 9/11 commission report was issued in June 2004.

So there was seemingly a point when nature itself had turned public opinion against the Bush's claim as terrorism fighters?

Then what happened? The campaign got really serious, the GOP and Bush machine fought back, we went through a summer of further Orange Alerts, we had expressions of concern even about "canceling the election." The Swiftboaters lied through megaphones provided by the MSM. Kerry threw away his medals a thousand times on tv. Kerry flip-flopped off of Nantucket.

My point is that it's not "natural" the the GOP gains from a terrorist attack. But it takes a ferocious PR campaign -- or simply a PR revelation of enormous proportions -- to fight the image that they have pained of themselves. And in the end, in 2004 at least, the GOP and Bush "won" that image war; Kerry and the Democrats had indeed won the first half, but lost the ultimate battle.

I don't know if he's right or not.There are a coup...

2008-06-24T05:22:00.000-04:00

I don't know if he's right or not.

There are a couple "security moms" where I work...yes, still...and the ONLY rationale they appear to still have for voting McCain and approving of Bush is that "Bush has stopped us from getting attacked again."

I actually think another attack, particularly a dramatic one, would simply at this point serve to underscore what an absolute failure George Bush has been in every single aspect of government. I completely disagree that it would flip the country's view of him. I think most people would either think he planned it in order to help elect McCain, or that he's so damned stupid and incompetent that, even seven years after 9/11, he still hasn't figured out how to stop them.

Just my two cents.

Before he was stupid enough to actually say this i...

2008-06-24T04:45:00.000-04:00

Before he was stupid enough to actually say this in public, Charlie Black was absolutely right. He simply spoke the truth as to what every GOP and Dem activist knows; namely that whenever there is a terrorist incident, the Republicans will play the fear card and no amount of long winded explanations from the Dems will convince the American public that the Bush/McCain policy has strengthened terrorism.

The problem is that Black has now been caught out saying this publicly and if the Dems have any sense they will hammer them on this and keep this in the news for as long as possible, in the same way as the GOP capitalised on Rev Wright. Then, in the unlikely event of any act of terror occurring, you roll out the Black transcript and undermine the GOP;s message of fear and false patriotism.

Obama's team cannot play the nice guy on this one. They must mercilessly exploit it. The media are ready and willing to give this airtime so I would make sure that several Obama surrogates raise this and then Obama can say that he is "disappointed" that Black would say such a thing.

Imagine if this were the other way round. What do you think the GOP and Fox News would do with it?

How about bumping that Obama 'hilarious SNL skit' ...

2008-06-24T03:59:00.000-04:00

How about bumping that Obama 'hilarious SNL skit' ad off - bad memories.

A couple things about South Florida:-The "hicks in...

2008-06-24T03:47:00.000-04:00

A couple things about South Florida:

-The "hicks in the panhandle" are not nearly as densely populated as Miami-Dade County.

-The edge among Hispanic voters is perhaps the most significant. I lived twenty years of my life in South Florida and Cuban-Americans are dyed in the wool GOP. The fact that some are willing to consider Obama is striking.

As for CNN's projection map, I wouldn't put any stock into it whatsoever. They don't tell us what their methodology is and, well, it's CNN.

The only thing it means in November is basically M...

2008-06-24T03:23:00.000-04:00

The only thing it means in November is basically McCain's foreign policy which is the same or nearly the same as President Bush's, which translates to people voting for Obama. There is no way people are going to flock to McCain using the "experience" argument because 8 years of experience didn't cut it.

Two things:First, Aznar blew it in Spain when he b...

2008-06-24T02:37:00.000-04:00

Two things:

First, Aznar blew it in Spain when he blamed ETA because the terrorist attack had no markings of an ETA-type terrorist activity, and it backfired on him (my in-laws live in the Basque Country). People in Spain saw it as cheap poitical grandstanding and knew better. So the operative question is would US citizens behave in a like circumstance given similar variables?

Second, is not the best way to discount this potential of McCain gaining political advantage of a terrorist attach to talk about it now, and keep talking about it? Sort of like jinxing the supposed benefit he may receive if there were a terrorist attack on US soil? Is what Charlie Black said analogous to talking about a no-hitter in the dugout while the game is going on?

AnonymousPoll: Obama leads in South Florida2008-06...

2008-06-24T02:12:00.000-04:00

Anonymous
Poll: Obama leads in South Florida
2008-06-23 22:41

Unless "South Florida" becomes a state in and of itself, I don't see how this poll is in any way meaningful.

The hicks in the panhandle will come out in droves to counter-balance the South FLA liberals.

Who is this 'Jebu' you speak of, O holy one?

2008-06-24T01:45:00.000-04:00

Who is this 'Jebu' you speak of, O holy one?