Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Today's Polls, 10/11

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2009-09-25T07:43:14.228-04:00

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ISO 9001 CE GOST QUALITY TSE ELD ECA AYDINISI EC...

2009-04-06T16:54:00.000-04:00

ISO 9001 CE GOST QUALITY TSE ELD ECA AYDINISI
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2009-03-12T03:59:00.001-04:00

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2009-03-12T03:59:00.000-04:00

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2009-01-18T04:11:00.000-05:00

Regarding the UC poll in Ohio...it's the Ohio news...

2008-10-12T16:03:00.000-04:00

Regarding the UC poll in Ohio...
it's the Ohio newspapers poll. It's only a poll of those who read Ohio newspapers and who know where to go online to vote. So that's the first clue that the sample isn't representative of all Ohioans. Considering this methodology, I'm not even sure the poll should be used in Nate's numbers.

http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=28973Whe...

2008-10-12T11:51:00.000-04:00

http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=28973

Where's Obama's signature?

I'm not sure the Ohio Poll is as accurate as you t...

2008-10-12T11:22:00.000-04:00

I'm not sure the Ohio Poll is as accurate as you think it is. Maybe it was right in the primaries, but during the 2006 governor race it showed that Blackwell and Strickland were close. It ended up being a complete blowout, and it was never close. Rasmussen and Gallup always had Strickland with a double digit lead.

We'll see in November how accurate they are.

To Reader:The (Reagan appointed) federal judge's o...

2008-10-12T03:17:00.000-04:00

To Reader:

The (Reagan appointed) federal judge's order has been overturned by the federal court of appeals that covers Ohio.

Here's the AP story

sewathi: As much as I'd love to see Obama win the ...

2008-10-11T23:52:00.000-04:00

sewathi: As much as I'd love to see Obama win the election I'm not convinced he will regardless of what the polls say. I read about and meet too many people who just won't vote for a black man.

Wouldn't the sentiments of most of that group already be reflected in the polls? If so, then the polls aren't off by much.

petekent: Anyone who knows John McCain knows that ...

2008-10-11T23:50:00.000-04:00

petekent: Anyone who knows John McCain knows that this is not his natural constituency. Truly, he is the maverick of the Republican Party

He's sure had a funny way of showing it for the past several months.

He would rather lose the election, I think, than win in an inappropriate way.

This is the guy who began his criticisms of Obama not on policy but on sarcasm about him being "The One" and then with his "Celebrity" ad which used innuendo without stating anything concrete and without any supporting facts.

And now he's been using innuendo about Ayers to imply...what exactly? That Obama approves of terrorism? That Obama doesn't care about protecting Americans? If that's what McCain thinks, why doesn't he just say it?

I used to respect Senator McCain, but as his own commercials say, he approves those messages. Perhaps now that the election seems increasingly out of reach, now he's trying to avoid doing still more damage to the nation in the process. But that's a pretty late decision for someone who was supposedly concerned about winning in an "inappropriate" way.

As much as I'd love to see Obama win the election ...

2008-10-11T23:23:00.000-04:00

As much as I'd love to see Obama win the election I'm not convinced he will regardless of what the polls say. I read about and meet too many people who just won't vote for a black man. It really sucks.

Can someone please explain why McCain is still cam...

2008-10-11T22:03:00.000-04:00

Can someone please explain why McCain is still campaigning in Iowa? And for that matter, why is he still acting as if he has a chance in Pennsylvania. He's down by double digits. Obama is doing better in Texas than McCain is doing in Pennsylvania.

By the way, hope Mrs. Palin is enjoying her bus tour of West Virginia this weekend.

Pete Kent said: "Ask yourself: In whose embrace wo...

2008-10-11T21:20:00.000-04:00

Pete Kent said: "Ask yourself: In whose embrace would you rather be when the world is tumbling down around you?"

Please Pete, I don't need any more encouragement to fantasize about being in Barack's embrace :)

I think the troopergate report will be a non issue...

2008-10-11T21:09:00.000-04:00

I think the troopergate report will be a non issue. As someone on her mentioned yesterday, the people who are concerned already aren't going to vote for her, and the rest are just so in love with her, it doesn't matter what came out. As far as they are concerned, the report said she didn't break any laws, she just abused her powers.

Peter B Fitzgerald said... I wouldn't be so surpri...

2008-10-11T20:37:00.000-04:00

Peter B Fitzgerald said...
I wouldn't be so surprised to see Sen. McCain win Ohio. For whatever reason, the state insists on its swing status, but goes republican in the end. It serves the purpose of sucking the resources out of democratic campaigns, then leaving them dry and in the dust.

********
MOney doesn't seem to be Obama's problem. It's McCain who has to worry about running out of money, to Ohio could be sucking his bank dry needlessly, when he should be winning Ohio without spending so much time and money there. McCain HAS to win OHio. If Obama wins it, it's just icing.

I am curious if anyone has any data on cell phone ...

2008-10-11T20:36:00.000-04:00

I am curious if anyone has any data on cell phone polls. I recently read that 20% of American households do not have landlines. I think that those people could be young and possibly more liberal voters.

I wouldn't be so surprised to see Sen. McCain win ...

2008-10-11T20:17:00.000-04:00

I wouldn't be so surprised to see Sen. McCain win Ohio. For whatever reason, the state insists on its swing status, but goes republican in the end. It serves the purpose of sucking the resources out of democratic campaigns, then leaving them dry and in the dust.

I hate to admit it, but I was around when Kennedy ...

2008-10-11T20:08:00.000-04:00

I hate to admit it, but I was around when Kennedy was assassinated. The climate at McCain-Palin events reminds me of the climate in Dallas in November 1963. Shortly before Kennedy was assassinated, Adlai Stevenson was attacked by a mob in Dallas and advised Kennedy not to visit. Should Kennedy have condemned Stevenson's advice? No, he should have listend to it.

The zogby poll is a joke add 4 points to whatever ...

2008-10-11T19:55:00.000-04:00

The zogby poll is a joke add 4 points to whatever they say. They are using a plus 2 democratic weight while ras is using 6 and other polls have it 8 or more.
They are under counting Obama`s support using the same data as 2004.
Almost all polls have Obama at 51-52% while zogby is stuck at 48. add 4 and you have a correct poll. His McCain support is about the same as other polls while he is way under counting obama`s.

I've noticed in the last few days, polls are dropp...

2008-10-11T19:36:00.000-04:00

I've noticed in the last few days, polls are dropping for Obama in battleground states, even though they have been merely a point or two. I am wondering whether Obama has reached its ceiling and it's down hill from here on!

Frankly, I don't believe Obama can carry on OH, FL, or NV. However, his best chance is to focus on VA and CO but at the same time do not abandon NC, MO just to keep the pressure on McCain.

P.S. As a Georgian, I don't understand why Obama is wasting his precious money on GA. I've lived here for more than a decade and I can assure you that there is no way he can overcome the bucolic nature of this state.

Maki...I also live in Cincinnati. I was driving t...

2008-10-11T19:29:00.000-04:00

Maki...

I also live in Cincinnati. I was driving through Mt. Lookout, Hyde Park and the Northside last week and was stunned to see how many more Obama signs there were than McCain. I mean a lot. And in Anderson, where I live, I have seen more Obama than I expected. Have faith! I also saw some Obama people canvassing the Oakley area today, as well as a lot of Obama signs in Madisonville and Mariemont. I felt reassured by that.

The coutnry isdivided between red and blue states,...

2008-10-11T19:27:00.000-04:00

The coutnry isdivided between red and blue states, but I notice it's even broken down further than that within each state. I nthe states I've seen broken down by county, I noticed that the Democrats win the cities, while the Republicans win the rural parts of each state. The ole city folks versus country folks battle.
In Florida, the Democratic areas is the Miami Ft. Lauderdale/West Palm Beach. Orlando is slightly more Democratic. 51% for Kerry 49% for Bush in 2004, Tampa, and the two college towns of Gainseville and Tallahassee.
Obama may be leading in Florida, but when he actually wins it, I'll believe it. If it's close, I don't trust the results. I also have my doubts about Ohio too. I think Obama has a good chance of winning without those two states anyway, but I sure hope it's bigger than a 5% lead heading into election day. I think anyone who remembers 2000 and to a lesser extent 2004, will not feel comfortable until after election day. 25 days is an eternity in an election cycle.

I noticed in thepast 2 days McCain has gain 2 poin...

2008-10-11T19:20:00.001-04:00

I noticed in thepast 2 days McCain has gain 2 points in the Galliup poll and about a point in the Zoby poll. Should we be concerned? Actually, I don't know how much stock I put in Gallup, since I heard they don't conduct their poll based on party affliation. I think in order to get an accurate poll, you probbly should take party affliation into consideration. I wold even go a step further and say one should subtract 1% from Democrats and add a 1% to the Republicans affliates, since many registered Democrats will vote Democrats, but few register Republicans will vote Democratic. It seems many of the polls are around 5, with Gallup and Newsweek being around 9-11%. being one of the few that are that high. I wonder if they are the outlyers. The pessimestic side of me tells me the race is probably around 5%.

OH is tough, no doubt. But look at the rewards! 20...

2008-10-11T19:20:00.000-04:00

OH is tough, no doubt. But look at the rewards! 20 EV!

Palin switched to the "abortion" issue, she no longer has teeth in her attack on Obama's trustworthiness. She lost credibility on that stuff. Abortion is a non-starter for indies and undies, anyway. She's just preaching to the choir.

Obama has to stay focused on middle class and small businesses. Keep cool. And keep the voting machines on check, and keep the security tight.