Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Two Mediocrities?

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2009-10-09T03:53:12.131-04:00

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2009-09-09T03:06:01.075-04:00

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2009-02-12T00:10:00.000-05:00

Of course, the NR is one of those "media mediocrit...

2008-06-12T20:05:00.000-04:00

Of course, the NR is one of those "media mediocrities": Their one-sided and often fabricated coverage is only matched by their need to label all of their blog posts "JOHN MCCAIN BARACK OBAMA JOHN MCCAIN JOHN MCCAIN BARACK OBAMA (ad infinitum)" to try and game Google.

The clothes make the man, and loudly claiming to be the best-dressed guy at the party doesn't make your Members-Only jacket any less tacky.

Interesting thoughts about the townhalls. I've th...

2008-06-05T08:58:00.000-04:00

Interesting thoughts about the townhalls. I've thought, thought, that some of it has to do with money. McCain gets a lot of free press -- and thus does not have to spend those dollars -- if they are engaged in an ongoing series of debates throughout the summer. It gives him lower cost national media exposure.

From March through the end, Obama performed better...

2008-06-04T17:52:00.000-04:00

From March through the end, Obama performed better among independents than overall in 11 of 13 primary states. I don't know that he lost any steam at all among independents. Maybe Nate will do an analysis.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21226003
independents
tx Obama 49 Clinton 48
oh 50-48
vt 65-35
ri 47-52
ms 53-43
pa 54-46
in 54-46
nc 45-50
wv 32-54
ky 40-47
or 68-32
mt 63-34
sd 50-50

There is only exit poll data on Republicans in six of those states.

tx 53-46
oh 49-49
ms 25-75
in 46-54
nc 32-61
mt 54-40

Operation Chaos and Clinton's right turn definitely hurt Obama here.

I have this impression after reading John Hood's c...

2008-06-04T13:57:00.000-04:00

I have this impression after reading John Hood's commentary that he's confused as to the date. It's 2008 not 2004. Perhaps someone could let him know? And while you're at it, tell him that he needs to have his eyes and ears examined. Presidency of John Locke Foundation, one would think, requires sharp senses being that Locke was the father of English empiricism... And yet all we see in this piece are Hood's personal feelings... Perhaps he should apply to Schopenhauer's Foundation? Thou they require brooding not vile...

When will the stat graphis be jut Obama McCain? I ...

2008-06-04T13:33:00.000-04:00

When will the stat graphis be jut Obama McCain? I am hoping this will be a daily focus on this contest. I feel it stoll looks like who does better with McCain whereas I assume new polling will reflect the two person contest.

I support Obama because:1) His fundraising machine...

2008-06-04T13:21:00.000-04:00

I support Obama because:

1) His fundraising machine is a juggernaut

2) The way he's energized young voters has the potential to carry democrats for the next couple decades (especially since all the Millennial Generation won't reach voting age until 2020).

3) A Hillary Clinton White House would likely look like the Bill Clinton White House with some rearranged deck chairs. I think we need to wipe the slate clean in that regard.

Regardless of whether Obama wins in the fall (and I think he will), his nomination just carries so much more positive benefits for the democratic party than Hillary's would have.

It sounds morbid, but in twenty years most of her base will likely be dead, while Obama's could be the most loyal voters the Democrats have.

Hi Nate,I also would encourage you to follow the l...

2008-06-04T13:20:00.000-04:00

Hi Nate,
I also would encourage you to follow the lead of pollster.com and require registration and sign ins. This would lead to much more civil and useful exchange of ideas. I have witnessed the demise of many blog comment sections due to the the influx of anonymous vandals and angry people who need a place to vent. Over time, this will reduce the quality of your site as these nasty kinds of people realize they can dominate the conversation.

You might also explore the model developed by Ratemyprofessors.com. They also faced the issue of libelous and mean spirited anonymous comments and moved to a registration system. Doing so markedly improved the quality of the site, made it much more interesting to read, and much more useful to use in educational contexts. I have started directing my students to your blog given the quality of your work and the quality of the conversations. I would encourage you to do something to protect your brand/blog!

Thank you for all your hard work!

Can you remove Clinton from this projection site n...

2008-06-04T13:19:00.000-04:00

Can you remove Clinton from this projection site now? I would gladly assist with the CSS work, but it just really muddy's things up.

Regarding all this talk in the media of Hillary as...

2008-06-04T12:46:00.000-04:00

Regarding all this talk in the media of Hillary as VP, I couldn't help but think of a Baseball Prospectus parallel - Would picking Hillary be the equivalent to a team signing a 33-year old center fielder to a multi-million dollar, 4-year contract in the hopes of winning the World Series this year? The upside is you might increase the odds you win the World Series. The downside is you're stuck with that player through the remainder of the contract.

Patience, guys. Can't you wait a few days, at leas...

2008-06-04T12:06:00.000-04:00

Patience, guys. Can't you wait a few days, at least, to see what happens during the rest of this week, and through the next round of polls?

Nate will have ample rationale for revising the webpage, and omitting Clinton, after the pollsters completely stop providing new Clinton vs. McCain matchups.

Then I would suggest that he just archive the last set of maps, for those who want to consult the "status as of June 5" (or whatever date it is), and make it available on the site. But he can revise the format for the next stage of the race.

I hope he can set up some tabs and tags that also allow us to 'find' authors of blogs (e.g., Nate and Sean and whoever else he may invite to participate).

Also, I would like to see him tracking Senate and House races, and eventually also perhaps Governorships and statehouse partisan balance. But he'll probably need more allies to do that.

Yeah, I wonder about that as well. Are we focusin...

2008-06-04T11:50:00.000-04:00

Yeah, I wonder about that as well. Are we focusing strictly on Obama-McCain from here on out?

Does this mean all the Clinton stuff will come off...

2008-06-04T11:28:00.000-04:00

Does this mean all the Clinton stuff will come off the homepage soon since it is now over?

Well there are differences in the quality and clar...

2008-06-04T11:14:00.000-04:00

Well there are differences in the quality and clarity of ideas as well as actions. If anyone doubts that they can just compare the speeches by McCain, Obama, and Clinton at the AIPAC convention. This morning Obama hit every note, both in tone and substance, about America's relationships with Israel. And at the same time, he got in licks on McCain (and Bush), while not striking a particular partisan tone.

Let's consider the source: John Hood is a right-wi...

2008-06-04T11:08:00.000-04:00

Let's consider the source: John Hood is a right-winger who writes for the conservative National Review. He dislikes McCain for not being a "true conservative" (whatever that means -- he sure sounds like a Republican to me). and dislikes Obama for being, well, Obama. Hood has a vested interest in slagging both candidates.

Personally, I think it'll be a bang-up Autumn in what has been one of the most interesting American political elections ever.

I have fond memories about some columnist in Chica...

2008-06-04T10:57:00.000-04:00

I have fond memories about some columnist in Chicago declaring the 2004 Illinois democratic senate field a bunch of boring mediocrities. I wonder if she ever revised that assessment after Obama's convention speech or any other time after.

h2h, I have a bone to pick with some of your comme...

2008-06-04T10:39:00.000-04:00

h2h, I have a bone to pick with some of your comments.

Obama's is all pep talk... people say he inspires them - but to do what

I've heard that before, and honestly, comments like that make me wonder whether people are listening to his speeches, or just listening to commentators talk ABOUT his speeches.

His speeches are loaded with proposals and specifics. So is his website. The idea that he talks blandly about hope and change is simply a canard.

Obama is an extremely liberal senator

Well, he ain't Jesse Helms, and his views on ethics reform could be described as extremely progressive, if you put them through a partisan lens. but Obama's rankings by liberal groups put him closer to the moderate wing of the party than the liberal end, and his rankings from conservative groups are pretty much the same.

Much like with Howard Dean in 2004, the "extremely liberal" label is caused by Obama's foreign policy stances.

who has trailed Clinton in moderates all election.

You're right... except for all of January and February, when the large majority of the votes were cast. Obama was winning the independents and crossover Republicans until the end of the Republican primaries (which swelled the crossover vote and skewed the demographics somewhat). He still won them in several states after that.

He has a strong appeal with independents who like his "change the culture of Washington" message. Those same voters tended to see Hillary as an establishment figure.

Nor is McCain particularly sacrosanct on that measure as well. McCain has an actual record of bipartisanship, but still has about an lifetime 80% conservative record, according to the ACU. Moreover on the issues likely to be debated, the war, healthcare and getting the economy moving, McCain is very much a conservative

I mostly agree. He's held some anti-GOP positions in the past on taxes and immigration, but he's more or less abandoned those stances in the quest for the nomination. About the only major issue where he is notably left of his party core is the environment, where he is arguably a moderate.

Nate, you can't take John Hood too seriously. He'...

2008-06-04T10:05:00.000-04:00

Nate, you can't take John Hood too seriously. He's most likely upset that McCain got the nod over some of the darlings of the right, so he wants to take a shot at McCain. He also places undue weight on the SD primary in an attempt to take a shot at Obama. It's just the frustration of someone who is personally dissatisfied with both nominees.

Republican strategists will admit McCain was the only hope for Republicans this year, and if he goes back to being the year 2000 McCain he might be the best hope for the restoration of the Republican party.

Obama is a formidable candidate, and if anything the last few weeks have shown the difference he can make when vigorously contesting a contest. He has been in general election mode, leaving the Clinton tag-team to make significant progress in small states like SD. While they had nothing better to do than blanket the state with campaigning, he was off to Florida, Michigan, Colorado, and other general election swing states. If he is as effective when vigorously contesting those states as he has been in the primaries, the Republicans have every reason to be worried.

Mediocrities is a pretty ridiculous description. ...

2008-06-04T09:46:00.000-04:00

Mediocrities is a pretty ridiculous description. McCain is an amazing politician. If the GOP had nominated Romney, he'd be down 15 points right now and the election would be a foregone conclusion. Frankly, if the political climate was not so bad for the GOP, McCain would probably be a big favorite over Obama.

Obama has amazing political talents but also substantial weaknesses. I don't think he could win a general election against McCain in a year in which party identification was roughly equal across the two parties like 2000 or 2004. Not to be a wet blanket, but it just doesn't seem likely given his liabilities among some elements of the democratic base. But, thankfully, we're not in that kind of year and he should be a significant favorite to win this election.

Like 2000 and 2004 its all going to come down to a...

2008-06-04T09:40:00.000-04:00

Like 2000 and 2004 its all going to come down to a few swing states... which probably will be led by Ohio and Michigan this year as the top prizes up for grabs, and smaller prizes like New Hampshire, Colorado, and New Mexico. I think Florida is safely McCain so we won't have to deal with that state again.

Anonymous at 12:33,You wrote "Kerry actually conte...

2008-06-04T09:31:00.000-04:00

Anonymous at 12:33,

You wrote "Kerry actually contested swing states, which Obama does not seem interested in doing."

Writing from the Kentucky Capitol Annex Cafeteria, I must respectfully note that there are only two states that Obama did not contest fiercely, and neither Kentucky nor West Virginia are swing states in any serious sense of the term.

Obama has the intellect, the energy, and the temperment to master new issues as they come at him--and the Presidency requires that every day. Beyond that, he has the most moving vision of the country since Reagan for the Republicans and Bobby Kennnedy for the Democrats, both in what he sees and how he shares it, and the strongest understanding of how organizing can change political outcomes.

And the party, at last, is ready to go for the best candidate without letting nonsense like race slow us down.

A truly wonderful day to wake up and start working.

Nate, first of all, congratulations on a very accu...

2008-06-04T08:22:00.000-04:00

Nate, first of all, congratulations on a very accurate Montana result.

Have the pollsters really asked yet what the result of an Obama-Clinton ticket would be? I should imagine that it could only secure states for Obama - but which ones?

Oddly enough, I became convinced in full we should...

2008-06-04T08:15:00.000-04:00

Oddly enough, I became convinced in full we should nominate Obama instead of Clinton when McCain became the Republican nominee. I think Clinton could've beaten any other Republican in the race, but the combination of her high negatives and McCain's crossover appeal worried me greatly.

I shouldn't have worried, though--I think this is a year where almost any Democrat would beat almost any Republican.