Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Senate Polling Weekly Update, 8/5

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2009-10-08T06:54:01.518-04:00

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2009-09-11T07:49:56.375-04:00

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2009-02-15T21:34:00.000-05:00

Virginia and New Mexico are 60-40 pickups for the ...

2008-08-06T15:36:00.000-04:00

Virginia and New Mexico are 60-40 pickups for the Democrats.(Warner-VA and T. Udall-NM).
Regarding Alaska- The question is Is Ted Stevens going to drop out after he wins the Republican primary and can Democrats make sure his name remains on the ballot during the General Election. ie Mark Foley.
Colorado and New Hampshire are 55-45 pickups for Democrats (Shaheen-NH and M. Udall-CO)
Oregon is a tossup/Lean Merkley.
Minnesota- pure tossup
Mississippi- Tossup/Lean Wicker

The real darkhorse VP candidate for Obama is none ...

2008-08-06T01:34:00.000-04:00

The real darkhorse VP candidate for Obama is none other than Mark Warner. I've noticed that he has stopped airing his Senatorial ads in the past 2 months. Obama recently stated as his birthday wish that he wants Virginia, Indiana and Colorado. Warner was born in Indiana and wildly popular in Virginia. Don Beyer could take his place (any reasonable Dem could beat Gilmore) and Warner would deliver Virginia for Obama. Obama has stated that he is not looking for national security credentials but a person who he feels comfortable with and has chemistry with and who could lead this country. Warner is strong on the economy issue. Obama has chemistry with Warner. They just plain look good together. Warner stated in early June that he won't accept it but that may just be a diversion to keep attention off of him. Warner would accept the VP nod, there's no doubt in my mind. He wants to be eligible for President in 8 years. He wants that job. My prediction is Warner. All these other folks being touted around are diversions.

Big story about Iraq oil surplus all over the news...

2008-08-05T22:04:00.000-04:00

Big story about Iraq oil surplus all over the news. Colossal mismanagement and theft of money from average Americans' wallets. Here's your opportunity Obama. Drive a truck through it.

" He graduated, didn't he? Did you graduate fro...

2008-08-05T22:01:00.000-04:00

" He graduated, didn't he? Did you graduate from an Ivy League? Could you have?"

That was back during the days of "legacies" when so many places were reserved for the sons of important alumni.

And once you got in, you could hardly flunk out. It's NOT AT ALL like today.

All Bush had to do was show up once in a while and not get arrested for anything major and he sailed through in a drunken binge. I had friends who were there at the time and admitted that once you were admitted, you had to really TRY to get kicked out.

It WAS possible if you put some real effort into it. My uncle managed to get kicked out of Harvard back in the 40's but he had to really try. And after the war, he came home and went to Yale, no problem. Flunking out didn't stop him. He came from a good family you see and that was more important back in the days before they changed their admissions policies.

I can't believe after eight years of watching this idiot stumble over the simplest sentences anybody could possibly deny he is the stupidest man ever to be President of the U.S.!

"I believe that the human being and fish can co-exist peacefully." -- Bush

Virginia Conservative: Bush graduated from Yale an...

2008-08-05T21:52:00.000-04:00

Virginia Conservative: Bush graduated from Yale and Harvard. Is he not a nitwit to liberals?

Given his approval ratings for the past several years, it looks like a lot more than the liberal community think he's a nitwit.

He graduated, didn't he? Did you graduate from an Ivy League?

I did (Yale). And trust me, once you're in, it's very hard to fail a course, much less flunk out. I'm many years later than W's class, but even in those more recent times of merit-based admissions, the school still made room for under-qualified children of alums (especially if they were major donors).

As for Franken, I have not found him to be an impressive candidate so far. But it figures, since he's a Harvard alum. ;)

Seriously though, people have to be judged on their own merits. There are plenty of unimpressive people who go to Ivies, and plenty of terrific people who go elsewhere. Better if we just look at people as individuals.

You could dig Reagan out of the grave and he would...

2008-08-05T21:46:00.000-04:00

You could dig Reagan out of the grave and he would still have tremendous difficulty beating Mark Warner in Va.

The Republicans know it to so they set up a sacrificial lamb in Gilmore. They were going to lose anyway so why waste a good candidate (see Dole '96)

Incidentally, I think Udall is going to lose in CO. His comments swearing that he would not let Congress recess without voting for drilling (and who did not vote in the 213-212 adjournment vote) in conjunction with Salazar (D Senator from CO) saying that drilling would be forbidden if gas was $10/gallon is getting major play in the state.

Dem wins in VA, NM, NH and AK (unless Stevens loses in the primary)
Reps will squeak by in MN, CO and OR
Dems will squeak by in LA

54-44-2 is not bad but Pelosi/Reid and Obama will minimize a truly historic opportunity.

If you knew what Jim Gilmore was like as Governor ...

2008-08-05T20:51:00.001-04:00

If you knew what Jim Gilmore was like as Governor you wouldn't think that. Hes a betrayer of the conservative movement.

VACon:Last I checked, the alternative was caucusin...

2008-08-05T20:51:00.000-04:00

VACon:

Last I checked, the alternative was caucusing with Mitch McConnell, which might be preferable to you but probably wouldn't sit well with Mr. Warner's core constituency.

(I deleted the original comment because Gilmore is a bit of a cheap shot.)

Virginia Conservative i think senate is very impor...

2008-08-05T20:49:00.000-04:00

Virginia Conservative i think senate is very important in USA political environment...so in my modest opinion voting for Warner is a big error.

They will hold district 11. They will get district...

2008-08-05T20:48:00.000-04:00

They will hold district 11. They will get district 9 will Rick Boucher dies.

Virginia Conservative what about the congress? can...

2008-08-05T20:45:00.000-04:00

Virginia Conservative what about the congress? can GOP retain district 11? Why don't try to gain the very conservative district 9?

Harvey-I'm considering voting for Mark Warner. Gil...

2008-08-05T20:42:00.000-04:00

Harvey-

I'm considering voting for Mark Warner. Gilmore is a moron, seriously. The worst Governor in a generation and and an embarrassment to conservatives and Republicans. Warner is a decent guy I just wish he wouldn't caucus with Harry Reid.

Were I the son of a former president, I think I co...

2008-08-05T20:41:00.000-04:00

Were I the son of a former president, I think I could "graduate," yeah.

Gilmore doesn't stand a chance. Bob Marshall would...

2008-08-05T20:34:00.000-04:00

Gilmore doesn't stand a chance. Bob Marshall would have been a better nominee.

Mark Warner is a successful businessman, centrist Democrat, and a brilliant campaigner. Had he run for President he would be the nominee by now and measuring the drapes for the Oval Office. I think Hillary scared him off, sadly for him.

BTW, it will be a pleasure to watch Stuart Smalley...

2008-08-05T20:32:00.000-04:00

BTW, it will be a pleasure to watch Stuart Smalley (aka Al Franken) go down the toilet. Shouldn't have played with the big dogs, Al.

*glug glug glug*

Virginia Conservative what about Virginia senate r...

2008-08-05T20:30:00.000-04:00

Virginia Conservative what about Virginia senate race? why don't try again the card of former senator Allen? Gilmore seems doomed despite the fact i like him...

uhm...Nate forgot some polls from rasmussen ( Kent...

2008-08-05T20:28:00.001-04:00

uhm...Nate forgot some polls from rasmussen ( Kentucky, Texas and Montana ) and one poll from research 2000 ( Idaho )...

He graduated, didn't he? Did you graduate from an ...

2008-08-05T20:28:00.000-04:00

He graduated, didn't he? Did you graduate from an Ivy League? Could you have?

Not that I pretend to know anything about Franken'...

2008-08-05T20:26:00.000-04:00

Not that I pretend to know anything about Franken's time at Harvard, but I don't think the fact that Bush's rich daddy got him into a nice school makes him any less of a nitwit.

Adam-Bush graduated from Yale and Harvard. Is he n...

2008-08-05T20:01:00.000-04:00

Adam-

Bush graduated from Yale and Harvard. Is he not a nitwit to liberals?

Anyway by "nitwit" I don't mean stupid, I'm thinking more along the lines of "jackass".

Coleman will blow him out 9%, three point spread.

VC: Say what you like about Franken (and believe m...

2008-08-05T19:14:00.000-04:00

VC: Say what you like about Franken (and believe me, there's a lot you could say, and he's probably not the best candidate that could have been nominated), but he graduated cum laude from Harvard. He's hardly a nitwit.

That race seems like it'll be within 2% no matter who wins.

Virginia Conservative: I'm pretty sure what posse...

2008-08-05T18:45:00.000-04:00

Virginia Conservative: I'm pretty sure what possessed the Dems to nominate Franken was that even a comedian can beat a fool.