Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Today's Polls, 8/24

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2009-09-22T02:47:35.875-04:00

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2009-09-11T09:12:28.602-04:00

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2009-02-09T03:26:00.000-05:00

Ok. I live in Colorado and always have, and we di...

2008-08-25T19:37:00.000-04:00

Ok. I live in Colorado and always have, and we dislike Arizonan's attempts to steal our water about as much as we dislike people from the East showing their ignorance of our region by suggesting water does not matter.

Water is a huge issue. Most of the water Arizona and Vegas get comes from the Colorado river which accumulates precipitation in upper basin states i.e. CO, NM, WY, UT and the biggest beneficiaries are lower basin states NV, AR, CA.

It is against water law for Coloradans to even collect rain water! as it disallows this water from running down to the other states.

We have watering restrictions frequently and try to be water conscious, but you can imagine there is some resentment when we are following the rules and Vegas and Phoenix is greener than it is here and its a frickin desert all their pools and fountains and lawns. it's not cool

Mccain said the other day in CO that the pact distributing water in the 7 western states from the CO river needs to be renegotiated, even though it just was last year and all the governors approved of it but he was too big of a moron to know about it. He also implied Arizona and NV and SoCal should be given extra water based on their inability to practice responsible growth.

It was a big mistake, and water is a big issue here.

So, can you say? What are the odds of Obama taking...

2008-08-25T09:55:00.000-04:00

So, can you say? What are the odds of Obama taking one of these three: VA or CO or OH?

We have a great opportunity here in terms of the d...

2008-08-25T05:15:00.000-04:00

We have a great opportunity here in terms of the data because in Popular Vote the candidates are tied.

This is exactly the point where tactics make the difference! Also the toss up states are those that count.

A lot is being made of the idea that states move up & down in the polls together - If you win one toss up you win them all.

That is NOT to Obama's advantage as he has potentialy multiple paths to success. Not surprisingly he is doing his best to make it untrue.

The trick is to fight each toss up state differently, atacking on localy relevent issues. That way Obama wins some, looses some but (hopefully) wins the war. All he has to do is find one or two states in which a local issue resonates, run a top rate GOTV & he might buck the national vote significantly.

McCain has to work differently. There are just too many swing states that he HAS to win. He must push hard for a general National Vote advantage & get them all out of play.

Despite the fact that the polls are tied the betting favours Obama, and I think rightly so. He has the better run campaign, better financing, and more enthusiastic supporters for a ground war.

Us Democratic supporters want a blow out, but a bare win is a win. I would give even odds if Obama was 2% down.

something worth reading, but doubtful that it's ea...

2008-08-25T05:00:00.000-04:00

something worth reading, but doubtful that it's easy to implement:

Undecided Voters May Be More Decided Than They Believe They Are

Stop_the_stutter:I think the only thing you need t...

2008-08-25T03:13:00.000-04:00

Stop_the_stutter:

I think the only thing you need to spell out is a new argument. You feel as though Obama is directly threatening or punishing "successful" people. At his income bracket, he would be giving up many of the very tax cuts that Bush enacted. These are the same tax cuts that McCain opposed in 2001, but now support.

So are you going to vote for a candidate who voted against the tax cut but now supports it for political expediency? Is McCain against "successful" people as well, or is it a thing of the past since he has embraced conservative economic principles?

Plus, McCain was rather vague about his plans for Social Security. He said payroll taxes might be on the table. Is McCain trying to "punish" successful retirees?

You clearly said in a SEPERATE argument that Obama has "contempt" for America. It defies logic that any candidate would hate the people and the country he or she hopes to lead. I don't remember any government conspirators ever throwing their hats in the ring for President.

If you're going to make ridiculous arguments, expect to be called out on them. You say you're a mainstream Republican, yet I'm supposed to be shocked you're anti-Obama and would support Condi Rice.

Tom, I am a registered Democrat so I can vote in t...

2008-08-25T03:02:00.000-04:00

Tom, I am a registered Democrat so I can vote in the primaries here in California but in general elections I vote for Republicans for President sometimes. I am an independent-minded swing voter.

In 1988, I liked Gore but he was out of the race by the time the June CA primary came along. I thought Dukakis was a sure loser and protested his ascendancy by voting for Jesse who at least gave hope to many without much hope. In November 1988, I voted for Papa Bush who carried CA over the hapless, endive-eating Dukakis.

In 1992, I was on Bill Clinton's campaign finance committee in CA and met Bill 3 times. I voted for him in 1992 and 1996, never liking Hillary.

In 2000, I voted for McCain as a cross-over in the CA primary that was temporarily an open primary that year. I hated Dumbya and voted for Gore in November 2000.

This year I voted for Barack in the CA primary before turning against him in March for his lies and his messiah complex (probably caused by being abandoned at different times by both his parents).

You don't know me and I don't know you but I have no reason to lie on an anonymous comment board. Besides, no one can "prove" how they voted anyways.

ALERT [as posted on the CNN Poll thread]----------...

2008-08-25T01:54:00.000-04:00

ALERT [as posted on the CNN Poll thread]
-----------------------------------
FYI - all those who wondered if a pollster really has their thumb on the scale [as it were]

Go over to Pollster for a fine analysis tonight By Charles Franklin - 'How Pollsters Affect Poll Results'

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/how_pollsters_affect_poll_resu.php
-----------------------------------
read the entire article, but guess who has the most 'house effect' [aka polling bias] toward McCain ???

[pause for effect]

RASMUSSEN Daily Tracker !!!

@ McCain +3

[meaning averages +1.5% HIGH for McCain with -1.5% LOW for Obama]
proof that we are not delirious !

Gallup Tracker is near the bottom also @ around McCain +2, or at the outer edges leaning toward McCain.

Harris Interactive leans furthest toward Obama @ +4.

Also the subject of how the numerous sheer volume/quantity of Rasmussen's polls leaning toward McCain therefore skews the entire data set toward McCain is in the article [again]

Find your favorite pollster & see got yourself how their polls average out in terms of weighting... FAUX & USA/Gallup lean McCain is no surprise, but some others may be but their quantity or consistency may not be as much as appears to be indicated.

Again, don't just read the toplines, study the entire analysis & charts then we csan discuss...

CNN's position may surprise - but remember they have only produced a few polls & I am do NOT believe today's CNN poll made this analysis.

NATE - please do an analysis & post on this subject/article ASAP !

Hey Jon,He has contempt for sucessful people who d...

2008-08-25T00:50:00.000-04:00

Hey Jon,

He has contempt for sucessful people who don't do it his way....is that better for you? If you weren't so worried about calling people braindead, I wouldn't have to spell it out for you in your alphabits.

Obama wants to punish investors (capital gains hike), punish select business sectors (oil windfall tax, but none on hollywood), and empower the government instead of the people.

I guess what I meant to say, and to make it more simple for you to digest perhaps, is that if you don't succeed Obama's way, he has contempt for you.

@MrInsight22MrInsight22 is clearly a fraud. No Je...

2008-08-25T00:29:00.000-04:00

@MrInsight22

MrInsight22 is clearly a fraud. No Jesse Jackson '88 voter could support John McCain. MrInsight22 is clearly no Democrat. Being a Jackson '88 voter who supports McCain in 2008 is more irrational on the issues that Hillary '08 voters backing McCain.

@MrInsight22MrInsight22 is clearly a fraud. No Je...

2008-08-25T00:28:00.000-04:00

MrInsight22 said:"Many who oppose Barack would hav...

2008-08-25T00:09:00.000-04:00

MrInsight22 said:

"Many who oppose Barack would have readily voted for Colin Powell in 1996 or 2000, so it has nothing to do with being black per se. The problem is that Barack is seen as a black with radical ties.

Barack was praised by Farakhan as "the hope of the entire world." Michelle wrote an anti-white these at Princeton."

This is such a poor explanation. Shouldn't he been seen as the Democratic candidate? Was John Kerry seen as a "white" with radical ties to people who opposed the Vietnam War? I mean, come on, its 2008 and many [older] people still can't get over the fact that Obama is black.

Michelle Obama's thesis was not "anti-white", but for some reason when any minority talks about race they are seen as racist. The thesis was based on legitimate observations and responses from real people. I guess no one can write about race if it offends someone? Did you know that Michelle Obama's freshman roommate moved out of the room they shared because her mother didn't want her to live with a black person? Do you know how that would make a 18 year kid feel?

Ed Rendell and many other white politcians have hosted and been feautured at events with Farrakhan. Rendell, Hillary Clinton's biggest supporter, praised him for establishing outlets for youth to escape street violence. I guess Rendell can get away with that, but Obama is suddenly "beholden" to Farrakhan? Also, why is Obama being held responsible for the endorsement of someone he didn't even solicit for support? If David Duke supports McCain, does that mean that McCain is a racist and Americans should reject his candidacy?

I mean, when does the "pesonal connection" issue stop?

stop_the_stutter said:

"I am Republican who would fall all over myself to vote for Condi Rice....or JC Watts....but I find Obama repugnant because he seems to have a contempt for America and a contempt for anyone who is successful. Not because of something as superficial as skin pigmentation. Skin color crap doesn't matter when governing."

Umm...most Republicans are GOING to reject Obama anyway, just like most Republicans would reject Hillary Clinton or John Edwards. Why should we be shocked that you would vote for JC Watts or Condoleezza Rice, who everyone knows are Republicans?

Also, why would someone who finds America "repugnant" run for POTUS in the first place? That makes little sense. Also, if Obama has "contempt" for succcessful people, I guess he hates himself and millions of his supporters for being successful? I mean, COME ON. These talking points don't even make an ounce of sense.

I don't care if you don't like Obama, but doesn't it just seem a little odd that someone who supposedly hates America would run for President?

I used to really enjoy this site, but some of the people that come on here now are just intellectually braindead...

Dvd, that spike near 360 EVs, well, you can go to ...

2008-08-25T00:01:00.000-04:00

Dvd, that spike near 360 EVs, well, you can go to 270towin.com and play it out yourself.

SarahLawrenceScott said... Let me give it a shot...Kerry+NM+CO+NV+OH+VA+FL+MT gives 341.

She's forgetting Iowa, and you might throw in ND. Then FL with 27 and one of MO or IN with 11 each or NC or GA with 15 each gets you to 355 or 359.

Well, I wanna take all those, plus SD and AL and get into 400 seat landslide territory. I'm one who thinks this will NOT be a close election. By the end of this campaign season one side will be defeated and the people will have decided, not narrowly but overwhelmingly, for the winner.

Kasich looks like a solid choice for McCain's VP. ...

2008-08-24T23:58:00.000-04:00

Kasich looks like a solid choice for McCain's VP. I'm also keeping my eye on Rep. Eric Cantor, from the Old Dominion...that pick would have all the pros of Lieberman with just about none of the cons.

Somebody mentioned Sarah Palin. There is no way s...

2008-08-24T23:19:00.000-04:00

Somebody mentioned Sarah Palin. There is no way she gets the nomination. The woman has been Governor for exactly 19 months. Before that she was Mayor of some Alaskan town with 8000 people. McCain is 72 years old. He can't afford to pick someone with so little experience. Palin would also get eaten alive in a debate with Joe Biden, although I don't think the VP debate is going to matter too much.

If McCain needs a female, he could pick either Jodi Rell, Governor of CT, or Linda Lingle of Hawaii, both of whom are well thought of and immensely popular in their respective states. The problem is, both are pro-choice. (Lingle is really a RINO, which you have to be to get elected in Hawaii).

Both Rell and Lingle would cause problems with the base, but they are better choices than Palin. Offhand, aside from Palin I can't think of a prominent woman politician who is pro-life other than Kay Hutchinson and Libby Dole. Both are pushing 70, though. They aren't good options either.

I guess I agree with Pete Kent on picking an ex-Ohio Congressman, although I would go with John Kasich, not Portman. Job #1 for Obama is to tie McCain to Bush, and a Portman pick by McCain would play right into Obama's hands on that score. OTOH, Kasich is a likeable, blue collar kind of guy with a strong grasp of economic issues. I think he would be an excellent VP choice. Frankly, I wish he was a Democrat.

@ SarahLawrenceScottSuppose in a set of simulation...

2008-08-24T23:07:00.000-04:00

@ SarahLawrenceScott

Suppose in a set of simulations that McCain gets 70%+ in 265 EV of states, not counting WV. Suppose further that his total in WV ranges from 50 - 70% in those simulations. Then in every one of those simulations McCain wins and WV is the tipping state, because if it had tipped to Obama, McCain would have lost.

There is never a simulation where Obama wins, but if WV had tipped to McCain, he would have lost.

Sure there is. Its the sim where Obama gets 70%+ of the vote in 265 EV of states, not counting WV, and gets 50-70% of the vote in WV. That sim output is less likely than the one you described, but it does exist.

MrInsight22 said...[...]"I voted for Barack in the...

2008-08-24T23:05:00.000-04:00

MrInsight22 said...

[...]"I voted for Barack in the 2008 CA primary. I turned against him in March because of all his lies about his mentor Jeermiah Wright, his 4 years in Indonesia where he studied Islam in a public school, etc."

Without prejudice to your remark about Jeremiah Wright:

I'm a Jewish American who lived in a Malay village for 2 years and went to the local Malay-language public school, where one of the subjects was Islamic Religion. You may think that makes me some kind of extremist, but that would be a highly ignorant assumption. The Islam taught in Malaysia and Indonesia for the most part (I emphasize, for the most part) is very mild and tolerant, and a very far cry from the extremism common in the Arab World and South Asia. I think it's great that Obama lived and studied in Indonesia, because he therefore understands the Muslim world well enough to realize that hundreds of millions of Muslims are basically pro-American but aggrieved at some of our foreign policies, and he'll never confuse Sunnis with Shias or invade a Muslim country for no good reason, call it a "crusade," and run the occupation incompetently. Unfortunately, McCain has repeatedly shown his gross ignorance about Islam and the Muslim world, and such ignorance is something we can ill afford. You have to know your enemy, and just as important, know who is and is not an enemy. McCain appears to me to know neither.

Sedi -Agree on the polls. Maybe we should go back...

2008-08-24T22:52:00.000-04:00

Sedi -

Agree on the polls. Maybe we should go back to our lives and stop making Nate so much money with multiple hits daily that drive his ad revenue. We could check back in a few weeks, but then again....

Its a great website...kind of like crack cocaine for the political junkies.

Hope you have a good night, Sedi.

I just looked up Condi's positions on the afformen...

2008-08-24T22:49:00.000-04:00

I just looked up Condi's positions on the afformentioned issues.

She is essentially where I am on abortion "kind of Libertarian on this issue". She is "mildly pro-choice.

On affirmative action, she only tepidly endorses it....
I think affirmative action is long past its usefulness and is used now more as a crutch. Race should not empower nor impede one's success. Period.

We in drought states know about water policy. We ...

2008-08-24T22:45:00.000-04:00

We in drought states know about water policy. We are often subject to water rationing so water is a big issue.

OTF,You're right, I haven't studied Condi Rice in ...

2008-08-24T22:43:00.000-04:00

OTF,

You're right, I haven't studied Condi Rice in depth. I always figured she was better than being for preferential racial treatment (affirmative action)....that's a bit disappointing if its true.

But I feel you are missing the point. The point is, that if you put up a candidate with conservative positions, race, religion, hair color, and everything else like that, won't sway me from that candidate.

Fair enough?

Allen: No, the tipping is not symmetric.Suppose in...

2008-08-24T22:42:00.000-04:00

Allen: No, the tipping is not symmetric.

Suppose in a set of simulations that McCain gets 70%+ in 265 EV of states, not counting WV. Suppose further that his total in WV ranges from 50 - 70% in those simulations. Then in every one of those simulations McCain wins and WV is the tipping state, because if it had tipped to Obama, McCain would have lost. There is never a simulation where Obama wins, but if WV had tipped to McCain, he would have lost.

While I've obviously used artificial numbers, the actual results will have that same asymmetry.

stop the stutter,As mentioned about Powell, Rice i...

2008-08-24T22:38:00.000-04:00

stop the stutter,

As mentioned about Powell, Rice isn't much different. Pro choice, pro affirmative action, and lost in the battle over foreign policy to Rumsfeld and Cheney. Powell and Rice by all accounts were very close on foreign policy ideas. But fall over yourself as a know all RepubliCons vote for pro chopice and pro affirmative action candidates with mnay other social liberal leanings if you actually study their history.