Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Road to 270: Mississippi

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2009-10-08T06:16:18.415-04:00

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2009-09-15T01:54:37.125-04:00

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2009-03-23T04:52:00.000-04:00

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2009-02-15T22:02:00.000-05:00

ok, ok, ok...I'm an educated professional, 35-year...

2008-08-15T10:58:00.000-04:00

ok, ok, ok...I'm an educated professional, 35-year-old white male living in Miss., and I'm voting for Obama.

Here are some things to ponder:

- mccain's grandfather is a mississippian
- baptist, and there are tons of 'em, are pro-life
- expect a strong black voter turnout, at least among civil rights era generation
- first presidential debate is held at Ole Miss on 9/26
- improved conditions in Iraq?
- 1 in 2 blacks in the Delta are born into poverty...can obama sell his message of change?
- uneducated white voters, bubba and billie jo, would never vote for a black man? a white segregationist group here is calling for whites to vote for obama to further their cause

While it is true that Mississippi has a toubled history in race relations, here, we have also been forced to deal with these issues. Mississippi is not the same it was 40, 50, 60 years ago. Yes, we still have room to improve, but racist live everywhere, and I would bet other states have further to go than we do.

A big reason for Childers district 1 Democratic vi...

2008-08-15T08:59:00.000-04:00

A big reason for Childers district 1 Democratic victory was his pro-life stance. Check back on MS when the Democrats have a candidate independent enough to run nationally with a pro-life platform.

I'm loving these profiles. Thanks for all your wo...

2008-08-14T23:32:00.000-04:00

I'm loving these profiles. Thanks for all your work!

These individual state analyses are cool. Can you...

2008-08-14T17:10:00.000-04:00

These individual state analyses are cool. Can you create a section on the site to collect all of them? I know you've only done two so far, but it would be great to have a one-stop reference shop for them all.

Adam: Kerry carried 14% of the white vote, not 18%...

2008-08-14T15:00:00.000-04:00

Adam: Kerry carried 14% of the white vote, not 18%, according to CNN exit polling.

Having said too much here that is not value-add, l...

2008-08-14T14:57:00.000-04:00

Having said too much here that is not value-add, let me actually deal with Mississippi for a sec. It seems obvious to me that Obama's chances in MS, such that they are, would depend on an all-out attack on economic terms and boosting black turnout.

Such an attack would probably need to be heavily ground-based, try to engage poor whites to embrace Obama's constructive plans for poverty relief (whatever those may be... let's just say that right now it's unimpressive) and be focused to the maximum extent on tailoring a message just for Mississippi. That seems to me an awfully expensive way to deal with a longshot state with 6 EV and a spread-out population.

There's no doubt in my mind, though, that the 5% chance showing up in the state breakdown involves boosting turnout of the poorest whites in Mississippi and getting them to somehow vote for Obama. That seems like a real longshot. McCain is not the candidate for Mississippi (you'd never beat Mike Huckabee here without actual thunderbolts hurled from above) but he's plenty good enough.

In addition to Larry's statement, I wouldn't exact...

2008-08-14T14:52:00.000-04:00

In addition to Larry's statement, I wouldn't exactly say that Philadelphia is known outside of MS only for lynchings. Although this has no political impact and little historical impact, Philadelphia was the hometown of celebrated Oklahoma running back Marcus Dupree. His falling out with Barry Switzer was even referred to as "The New Philadelphia Story" in a Sports Illustrated article.

Outside of MS Philadelphia may only be know for th...

2008-08-14T14:37:00.000-04:00

Outside of MS Philadelphia may only be know for the lynchings but it is famous in the state for its fair. It is the most important political event of the year in MS. Every political mover and shaker in the state rents a cabin on the fairgrounds and Political speaches are the main attraction.

wrt Mr. Kent, I am most struck by his routine digs...

2008-08-14T14:25:00.000-04:00

wrt Mr. Kent, I am most struck by his routine digs at Nate and Sean.
If he really feels that this site is so biased, perhaps there is another that he would be more at home in. Insulting your hosts is usually considered rude in any culture.

He has made his "point" again and again ad nauseum. Apparently the nation is really, really upset about abortion and socialism, which is why we should ignore the polls and recognise that McCain will win. And since Obama isn't winning in a landslide, he will most certainly lose in November. And as long as there are 500 people who will vote for McCain anywhere in the country, then Obama will "have work to do" and we should all be worried. Oh, and we're all communists, too.

That pretty much sums it up, so that should spare him posting for a while. But it won't.
Overall, he's been less and less about polling, and more about attacking anyone's confidence in Obama's campaign. I don't find that illuminating. YMMV.

I suggest to Sean and others here to read this art...

2008-08-14T14:24:00.000-04:00

I suggest to Sean and others here to read this article below, the Ten, Ten, Ten solution. Boost AA turnout by 10%: doable. Boost BHO appeal among AA by 10%: certain. And Boost BHO appeal among whites by 10%: possible. That would result in a 50:50 split. Early call? Perhaps not.

MS has a chance, and its not so far fetched.
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/5/18/115022/815

I think Mississippi is the only Deep South state t...

2008-08-14T14:12:00.000-04:00

I think Mississippi is the only Deep South state that is actually in play in this election, and we are under-cutting the possibility of an Obama Mississippi upset. The state has a 37% black population, and Obama is likely to win at least 95% of them! Although I am in NYC, and quite disconnected from Mississippi culturally, I agree with southerndem79's statement. We can't write off the state.

Kerry earned 18% of white men and 10% of white women according to CNN's 2004 Mississippi exit polls. Obama has been doing significantly better with women nationally than Kerry did (he only won that demographic 51-48 and lost white women 44-55). Polls have been indicating that Obama is "winning" women by an 11% margin (49-38) in this poll for example.

Also, here is an analysis on Pollster that explains Obama's performance with white women nationally where he is essentially tying McCain on average in polls instead of 11% behind like Kerry was. This seems to indicate that Obama would be able to earn more than Kerry's abysmal 10% of white women in Mississippi, and maybe even increase his share to 18%. If so, and a modest few point gain with white men frustrated with Bush and McCain, he'll pull into that infamous 20% threshold. Combine that with massively increased black turnout which could easily be 40% of the total electorate, and he takes the state.

I have to admit, though, I'm a bit baffled by how Kerry only garnered 10% of white women's votes in Mississippi while getting 18% of white men's. Maybe someone from the state can explain why white women are less likely to vote Democratic than white men, because it runs counter-intuitive for me and seems out of sync with national patterns.

Tybalt et al: At the risk of starting an infinite ...

2008-08-14T13:49:00.000-04:00

Tybalt et al: At the risk of starting an infinite recursion, I like reading what Pete Kent has to say, and I'm an Obama supporter.

I have no problem with Pete and similarly am happy to read what he has to say. When he repeats the same simple insults ("Stalinists") or clumsy sarcasm about regression, over and over again in post after post, that doesn't count as "something to say".

I am quite happy to talk to and listen to those with opposing viewpoints, but the comments policy here is "don't be an asshole" and some here are abusing that policy regularly.

"More than any other state, it’s impossible to tal...

2008-08-14T13:37:00.000-04:00

"More than any other state, it’s impossible to talk about Mississippi without discussing its dark racial history."

Its dark racial history? Is this an inadvertent mixed metaphor?

Here's Barna's taxonomy of Christians:"Born again ...

2008-08-14T13:31:00.000-04:00

Here's Barna's taxonomy of Christians:

"Born again Christians" are defined as people who said they have made a personal commitment to Jesus Christ that is still important in their life today and who also indicated they believe that when they die they will go to Heaven because they had confessed their sins and had accepted Jesus Christ as their savior. Respondents are not asked to describe themselves as "born again."

"Evangelicals" meet the born again criteria (described above) plus seven other conditions. Those include saying their faith is very important in their life today; believing they have a personal responsibility to share their religious beliefs about Christ with non-Christians; believing that Satan exists; believing that eternal salvation is possible only through grace, not works; believing that Jesus Christ lived a sinless life on earth; asserting that the Bible is accurate in all that it teaches; and describing God as the all-knowing, all-powerful, perfect deity who created the universe and still rules it today. Being classified as an evangelical is not dependent upon church attendance or the denominational affiliation of the church attended. Respondents were not asked to describe themselves as "evangelical."

Non-evangelical born again Christians meet the born again criteria described above, but not the evangelical criteria.

Notional Christians are those who consider themselves to be Christian but do not meet the born again criteria.

This bit of Nate's analysis is misleading at best:...

2008-08-14T13:27:00.000-04:00

This bit of Nate's analysis is misleading at best:

the Arizona senator enjoys a 61-17 lead nationally over Obama among evangelicals and Mississippi has the 4th highest percentage of evangelicals in the country.

The 61-17 number is from George Barna's poll and his definition of evangelical is not at all comparable to any other poll. Almost all other pollsters accept self-identification as their measure of 'evangelicalness' and they usually get numbers approaching 40% of the voters. Only 8% of the country is evangelical, according to Barna's definition which is involves holding a specific set of beliefs. There is no way that 39.7% of the Missippi population are 'Barna-style' white evangelicals.

"Do you think if Obama was white Mississippi would...

2008-08-14T13:21:00.000-04:00

"Do you think if Obama was white Mississippi would be any different?"

You're correct here. The type of white voters in Mississippi who would never vote for a black man would very likely never vote for a Democrat anyway. Kerry won 18% of the white vote, and Obama will likely get 15-18%.

Likewise, blacks regularly vote 90% Democratic, and will probably be 95-96% this year. Take from that what you will. You are, however, in a very small subgroup given your demographics and voting preferences.

Here we go with the race baiting again.I am a blac...

2008-08-14T13:18:00.000-04:00

Here we go with the race baiting again.

I am a black person voting for McCain, and I think the real racists are black people voting for Obama just because he is black.

Do you think if Obama was white Mississippi would be any different? If Obama were white Mississippi would be no where as close as it is now. I guarantee most Mississippians do not like Obama because he is too liberal, not because he is black.

Also, Mississippi may be the 2nd most "uneducated" state, but charts like that are stastistically flawed. The states at the top of the chart have low minority populations and low senior citizen population. The states at the bottom have high minority populations and high senior citizen populations. This is no coincidence.

Bush carried MS with 60%. McCain is only carrying ...

2008-08-14T13:14:00.000-04:00

Bush carried MS with 60%. McCain is only carrying it with 52%.
McCain "has some work to do".
Also, Research2000 shows McCain plummeting 6 points from May to July in MS.

By employing Mr. Kent's new and improved Logic-Free reasoning, it's obvious to see that there is no way McCain can win MS. Further, by cherry-picking a region or small demographic, it can be conclusively proven that not a single person in MS will vote for McCain in November. He's just too white.

Hey, this freedom from evidence and logic is pretty neat! I'm almost ready to vote Republican.

Why is the number of Catholics in a state counted ...

2008-08-14T13:13:00.000-04:00

Why is the number of Catholics in a state counted as a factor that will automatically benefit Obama (rather than a neutral factor like the number of seniors or something) given that Bush won a majority of the Catholic vote in the last election, while running against a Catholic? (This was also, I believe, the first time a Republican won the majority of the Catholic vote.)