Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Yet Another Veep Thread: Nobody Knows Anything

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2009-10-08T05:33:32.146-04:00

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2009-09-22T01:58:42.888-04:00

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2009-03-12T00:06:00.000-04:00

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2009-02-16T23:06:00.000-05:00

Ah, PeteKent, you despise copresidencies?How quick...

2008-08-19T20:06:00.000-04:00

Ah, PeteKent, you despise copresidencies?

How quickly you forget Reagan and Nanny ("Mommy") Reagan. Remember the astrologer giving advice to the presidential couple?

At least Democratic copresidents are expected to be educated and capable.

Love the blog. I check it more than once per day. ...

2008-08-19T15:35:00.000-04:00

Love the blog. I check it more than once per day. Great work.

I'm strongly pro-Obama. To me, Hillary would be the best choice for VP provided she can be trusted.

Unfortunately, her conduct in the primary leaves that open to question. Her tactics were transparently oriented to undermining Obama's chances in the general election. I expect more from a Democrat. I expect a Democrat--even one angry that she's losing a primary election--to put party interest ahead of personal interest. Hillary failed the smell test of party loyalty.

That being said, she would bring a LOT to the ticket. There is very little doubt in my mind that if she truly backed the Obama/Clinton ticket, the team would be practically unstoppable. You have the obvious assets of party unity, energizing the Democratic base, and wowing the press to drown out all McCain press coverage for the next month. But add to that the combined fundraising potential of the ticket, and holy cow.

Can Hillary be trusted? Or would she use the VP slot to try to subtly sink the ticket?

How about this for a wow? Obama lets the conventi...

2008-08-19T14:26:00.000-04:00

How about this for a wow?

Obama lets the convention decide!

Jerry Brown! where there is no vision the people ...

2008-08-19T14:20:00.000-04:00

Jerry Brown! where there is no vision the people perish.

But let's go back to the historical record. Except for Agnew, when has the winning ticket not won the home state of both the Pres. and VP candidates?

Never?

So if O picks Bayh or Kaine, then IN or VA become the central focus of the campaign.

I think Biden is a likeable dope, but he's from DE (which used to be a bell weather state and still has a few bell weather counties), a catholic and helps two ways on the experience charge - a) he currently plays as experienced and b) his job before Senate was as a county commissioner!

I also hear his speaches as so good they should be published -- (actually they were in England.)

Seems odd to me.According to this source:http://ww...

2008-08-19T14:02:00.000-04:00

Seems odd to me.

According to this source:

http://www.thewashingtonnote.com/archives/2008/08/obama_to_genera/index.php

The Obama campaign is either ignoring Clark or actively putting him at arm's length.

Odd because: Clark's clearly a big asset, and what Obama describes as one "inartful" comment doesn't change that.

And the Obama campaign certainly knows how to field its assets. They might not play him up a lot, but ignoring him? Doesn't seem to make sense.

All of which suggests to me an incredibly well-executed head fake.

But whaddo I know? I'm an inveterate wishful thinker.

"If Bush had used his high popularity after 9/11 t...

2008-08-19T13:57:00.000-04:00

"If Bush had used his high popularity after 9/11 to make some common sense center right policies, the Republicans might be tying down control for a generation. He went the other direction.

Ultimately, I think Obama is going to win and have a large Dem majority in congress behind him. I just hope that we don't repeat Bush's mistake."

This is a key point that Republicans never are able to grasp. Karl Rove convinced Bush that "there is no middle." Thus, there's no point in trying to get elected playing to the middle and the only thing that matters is gearing up the base with red meat attacks on your opponents.

It doesn't matter what anybody thinks, just so long as there are 51% of us and only 49% of you!

That's actually true as far the 1st election goes. But, it didn't NEED to be true for the next 8 years!

Bush could have governed as a consensus middle of the road President after 9-11 when he had close to 90% support. He would have won in 2004 with a coalition the size of Reagan's 1984 win, except that Republicans would have the same kind or larger majorities that Democrats now have in the House.

Instead he invaded Iraq and gave the big middle-finger to everybody who disagreed with him (Republicans included - "We're not here to elect Republicans" he sneered).

When you think about what a once-in-a-generation chance to consolidate permanent power Bush blew it's staggering.

Of course, he couldn't have given all those no-bid contracts to Haliburton and run the treasury like it was a private piggy-bank for his rich cronies (Bush: "The haves and the have-mores. Some call you the elite, I call you my base.")

Reagan NEVER had a chance to create a life-time coalition the way Bush did. Now look at the resurgence of liberalism, Bush's main legacy aside from utter failure at every policy and the lingering destruction of New Orleans.

Obama has to avoid making the Bush mistake of governing for the next 8 years like he's trying to get to 51% in Ohio.

Al Gore would be amazing. I think he would basical...

2008-08-19T13:19:00.000-04:00

Al Gore would be amazing. I think he would basically guarantee victory.

Hagel would have major shock value. That choice w...

2008-08-19T11:25:00.000-04:00

Hagel would have major shock value. That choice would destroy the McCain attack machine

I haven't heard any speculation about Bill Richard...

2008-08-19T10:55:00.000-04:00

I haven't heard any speculation about Bill Richardson. He's got the experience that Obama's supposedly lacking. He's got a great story. He picks up the Hispanic vote. He's from a region that Obama could use a little help in. His only drawback I can see is that he's Hispanic. I hate to say it but a Black guy/Hispanic guy ticket may push a big chunk of the scared white guy vote away. Very sad. I think he'd be a great VP choice. Clark would make a better secretary of defense.

I really hope it is Biden. Remember - one of the t...

2008-08-19T10:17:00.000-04:00

I really hope it is Biden. Remember - one of the two important things the VP pick does is debate the other VP pick - Biden is a really great debater.
He also takes care of Obama is not experienced enough. I think the country would be comfortable imagining him as President.

Mrs. Otis Regrets (Joe Biden)Biden brings experien...

2008-08-19T09:48:00.000-04:00

Mrs. Otis Regrets (Joe Biden)

Biden brings experience and judgment to the table, but also a propensity to show off. You want your VP to follow your lead. Still he is a Party Icon and would add gravitas to the ticket and could possibly, as was suggested above, help in PA (not a consideration to be dismissed).

I heard last night that Mrs. Obama, however, has nixed him. More and more these Obamas are looking like the Clintons. Another co-presidency in the making?

Biden, now that he has been put on the shortest of lists, will be hard to spurn, so he still gets my bet.

Bayh is blah and Kaine is a nobody.

Obama cannot afford to run with someone like Kaine who has so little experience. Me? I think he should pick Clark.

Still, I think Mrs. Clinton's stock may be rising. More and more it appears he needs her to unify the party and put old wounds to rest. Of course he risks opening up a whole new can of worms, but that's what makes this so much fun.

Portman looks more and more like the guy for McCain, if you ask me. Interesting that he is rumored to be making the announcement in Dayton, OH, on his birthday, Friday Aug 29, the day after THE SPEECH. Very close to Portman's old turf in SE OH near Cinti.

I think the best options are Bayh and Warner.

2008-08-19T08:51:00.000-04:00

I think the best options are Bayh and Warner.

'ian', i think virginia is a diverse enough state ...

2008-08-19T08:39:00.000-04:00

'ian', i think virginia is a diverse enough state for supposed lack of foreign affairs experience not to matter. remember, too, that the world can be seen in a grain of sand let alone such a sizable place as virginia. not sure why politicans need 'military' experience either- i don't recall cardinal richelieu, to name but one example, having any and yet he had 17th century Europe wrapped round his little finger (notwithstanding a few pesky muskehounds). the question is how good a politician is Kaine? the same q goes for all prospective veeps and whichever one O chooses will be an indication of how good a pol he is.

As a Virginian, I hope he doesn't choose Kaine. He...

2008-08-19T08:30:00.000-04:00

As a Virginian, I hope he doesn't choose Kaine. He's rather mediocre and lacks military/foreign policy experience to boot.

How about Michael Phelps for VP? He can't seem to ...

2008-08-19T08:18:00.000-04:00

How about Michael Phelps for VP? He can't seem to wrong this year.

Powell sounds like a good choice, but I just don't...

2008-08-19T06:32:00.000-04:00

Powell sounds like a good choice, but I just don't know if the USA is ready for a black VP.

I just read that McCain is going to do it next Fri...

2008-08-19T03:52:00.000-04:00

I just read that McCain is going to do it next Friday at a huge 10,000 person rally.

Why is he so arrogant and presumptuous? He can't do it in a hotel ballroom. Does he already think he's president or something?

Obviously I don't really think these things. I just wanted to point them out for our GOP friends that criticized Obama endlessly for holding his speech in a football stadium. They implied that large rallies were somehow tacky and that it wasn't just a lack of interest that stopped McCain from holding his own.

I will note that I really seriously doubt that McCain will pick a Ridge or a Lieberman at this point. The people that attend rallies are pretty partisan and imagine would generally be right wing Republicans. What happens if he picks Lieberman and the 10,000 people actually start booing?

I think Obama's people have given him a little more discretion in making his choice. I don't see that sort of disapproval being registered with any of the finalists.

Alex S.Nah, he's even older than McSame.And I thin...

2008-08-19T03:33:00.000-04:00

Alex S.

Nah, he's even older than McSame.

And I think, given the way the rest of his campaign's run, that underestimating Obama's having the convention planned out is... foolish, wishful thinking.

He took out HRC in a contest which she was expected to win, favored to win, had the advantages... and he didn't do that by accident or through failure to plan.

Shock Value and big name?Jimmy CarterlolP.S.: Gore...

2008-08-19T03:27:00.000-04:00

Shock Value and big name?

Jimmy Carter

lol

P.S.: Gore really doesn´t want it and Kerry is as anticlimactic as it could get. Powell - not a chance. We have now seen Kaine, Bayh and Biden being in the center of media attention. Sebelius has slipped out of the view a little, her intrade numbers show it. But she still has the WOW-factor of being a woman (and being on various shortlists), that also applies to Clinton, who also has the WOW-factor of being Hillary Clinton. But Clinton and Obama can´t even agree on what the convention should be about... (or it´s a really, really, really, sneaky play they have been performing for us.)