Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Senate Polling Weekly Update, 8/22

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2009-02-16T22:48:00.000-05:00

Michael- Who the hell are you to tell me that I ca...

2008-08-22T16:56:00.000-04:00

Michael- Who the hell are you to tell me that I can't post predictions based on hunches even though they may be closer to reality than you think you Scumbag.
I was looking at the Survey USA polls.
Michael you are just a bored blogger trying to be a big shot.
You deserve to get your ____ KICKED.

nkpolitics, if I had wanted to be condescending, I...

2008-08-22T16:46:00.000-04:00

nkpolitics, if I had wanted to be condescending, I would have said that you are getting your numbers out of your ass - which you are still doing. This website isn't about wishful thinking or predictions based on "hunches." You might as well be predicting the scores of individual baseball games based on made-up stats of a 1st baseman's fielding percentage - hardly PECOTA territory there.

In the future, I'll remember to just ignore you, your posts, and your puerile threats.

Michael What I meant was Udall will get 100% of th...

2008-08-22T16:22:00.000-04:00

Michael

What I meant was Udall will get 100% of the 50% Likely Democratic Voters in NM and Pearce will get 100% of the 35% Likely Republican voters. Udall is going to get at least 90% of the likely Democratic votes and Pearce will get at least 90% the Likely Republican votes.
Udall is going to win by a 15-20 percent margin.

Regarding Colorado- I was mentioning the likely voters.

and stop with the condenscending remarks or I come over and KICK YOUR______ M

nkpolitics said:"He will get 100% of the Democrati...

2008-08-22T16:02:00.000-04:00

nkpolitics said:

"He will get 100% of the Democratic Voters while Pearce gets 100% of the Republican voters. Udall is probally going to carry Independents by a 60-40 percent margin. Udall wins by a 60-40 percent margin."

Your math makes no sense here, since independents are less than 100% of the vote. It's also virtually impossible for any candidate to win 100% of the vote of their party.

"In Colorado- THe state is less Democratic than NM- It is 40% Democratic, 35% Republican and 25% Independents."

Democratic registration has gained, but it's been repeatedly mentioned that independents are the plurality in CO, with Republicans still more numerous than Democrats.

If you want to be taken seriously on this kind of site, please make sure your numbers are plausible, or at least aren't demonstrably false. Nothing personal.

New polling data - An astonishing 100% of responde...

2008-08-22T15:35:00.000-04:00

New polling data - An astonishing 100% of respondents agree MR is an asshole. There is no margin of error.

Additional poll - Less than 1% of 1% of respondents indicate Nate is a wanker. Of course, since the only respondent to indicate in the "aye" was in fact MR, this poll actually reinforces and proves the first poll.

Asshole projections done right.

DC-FL.We have to look at the 2008 MN US Presidenti...

2008-08-22T15:31:00.000-04:00

DC-FL.
We have to look at the 2008 MN US Presidential Race to determine who wins the MN US Senate Race.
Norm Coleman will get all of the John McCain voters. Obama will carry Minnesota by a 54-46 percent margin. We need to make sure McCain does not recieve more than 45% of the popular vote in MN.

DCM:I also find it interesting that, of those who ...

2008-08-22T15:13:00.000-04:00

DCM:
I also find it interesting that, of those who rate gas prices as the most important problem, Franken breaks ahead at 41/38. It shows that the "drill here, drill now" rhetoric is not gaining Coleman as much support as one would expect.

Al Franken is up 1 point in today's MPR MN Senate ...

2008-08-22T15:10:00.000-04:00

Al Franken is up 1 point in today's MPR MN Senate Poll.

Comparing the VA and NM and CO US Senate Race. The...

2008-08-22T15:06:00.000-04:00

Comparing the VA and NM and CO US Senate Race.
The VA polls have shown Warner ahead of Gilmore by a 25 percent margin. Warner is a recent highly popular former Governor- He has a lot of money and is a national candidate. Gilmore on the other had is a former Governor but he is very unpopular- Democrats and Independents despise him. Warner cuts into Gilmore's base in Southern Virginia. If Gilmore was not running- Warner's margin of victory will be like Chuck Robb's first US Senate Race.
40% Democratic,35% Republican,and 25% Independents. Warner gets 100% Democrats, Gilmore wins Republicans 75-25. and Warner wins Independents 60-40. Warner(D)wins by a 65-35percent margin.
In New Mexico- The race is narrowing because Pearce is improving his showing with his Republican Base. New Mexico is a Democratic leaning State. 50% Democrats,35% Republicans,and 15% Independents. Tom Udall is a popular Progressive Democratic Congressman and former State Attorney General with a household last name. He will get 100% of the Democratic Voters while Pearce gets 100% of the Republican voters. Udall is probally going to carry Independents by a 60-40 percent margin. Udall wins by a 60-40 percent margin.

In Colorado- THe state is less Democratic than NM- It is 40% Democratic, 35% Republican and 25% Independents. Udall gets 100% of the Democratic vote. Schaffer gets 100% of the Republican votes. and Udall gets 60% of the Independent votes. Udall wins by a 55-45 percent margin.

TODD,assuming Faris does go away after the primary...

2008-08-22T14:56:00.000-04:00

TODD,

assuming Faris does go away after the primary, the poll results are decent news & encouraging for Franken IMO.

Coleman should be worried, especially if Barkley's support should slip.

I still believe that Franken could benefit from Obama coattails if Obama wins comfortably.

I was just in MN recently & seemed that Franken did just need to solidify the DFL base more & keep pushing the Coleman=Bush attacks.

I would like to see him in the senate arguing with some of the neo-con troglodytes [like Lieberman]

DCM wrote:Try reading it @:http://minnesota.public...

2008-08-22T14:47:00.000-04:00

DCM wrote:
Try reading it @:

http://minnesota.publicradio.org/display/web/2008/08/21/senatepoll/

Or just go directly to the poll itself.
I wish there had been crosstabs on the gender breakdown to see how Lord Faris is affecting things.

the MN senate race will not be won with 50% by anyone [again] this year. Barkley [IND] is still polling around 8%, so the winner will probably only need 46-48% again.

I agree. Once the primary is over, the DFL will rally to Franken. Right now Franken only has 71% of the Democrats. That's the difference in this virtual tie.

Lord Faris gets her strongest support among Republicans who are especially unlikely to vote in the DFL primary. (from the poll)

So a significant number of Republicans may sit the election out if the PUMA loses the primary. Norm is at 81% Republican support, which is beginning to look like a ceiling. 55% of Democrats are either "extremely" or "very" enthusiastic about Franken. Only 35% of Republicans feel the same about Coleman.

NKthat is probably a good projection for the final...

2008-08-22T14:42:00.000-04:00

NK

that is probably a good projection for the final MN #'s.

the question will be which of the other guys gets the 48% win ?

too early to say for sure, but Franken definitely has a real shot at it IMO

Regarding Barkley(MN)- Barkley ran for the US Sena...

2008-08-22T14:38:00.000-04:00

Regarding Barkley(MN)- Barkley ran for the US Senate in 1994 and 1996.
In 1994-(Grams vs Wynia) race Barkley got 5%. Grams(R)won by a 49-44 percent margin in a pro GOP year. In 1996-(Wellstone vs Boschwitz)race- Barkley got 7%. Wellstone won by a 50-41 percent margin. My prediction is Barkley gets 5%. It is going to be a 48-47 percent race.

TODDfine post on MN Senate race above. actual fac...

2008-08-22T14:33:00.000-04:00

TODD

fine post on MN Senate race above. actual facts are hard to rebut, although many on here seem to have trouble grasping that by substituting their 'gut'.

well done

Greg wrote:I supported JNP in the caucuses, and fe...

2008-08-22T14:22:00.000-04:00

Greg wrote:
I supported JNP in the caucuses, and felt he was an honorable guy and he ran a clean campaign

Ditto that. I respect him even more for supporting the endorsed candidate, though I wish JNP was going up against Coleman.

Like it or not, Franken did the legwork and 'schmoozing' needed to win the endorsement.

Michael wrote:
Franken has zero, zip, nada, NO chance of being elected as US Senator from Minnesota. His anti-woman PORNO-RAMA article in Playboy doomed his already long shot bid.

Yeah, because something someone did a long time ago really matters - like Coleman being a Democrat for a decade, or his college days as an anti-war demonstrator and a pot-smoking hippie. And a professional comedian writing a comedy article is virtually the same as a policy statement, right? That's why he got the Party endorsement, and the endorsement of our woman Senator - because he's clearly "anti-woman". It's just so obvious.

Again, the latest poll (linked to it previously) shows a virtual tie.
Also, from the poll:
Nearly two-thirds expressed disapproval with President Bush, and among them Franken enjoys a nearly three-to-one lead.

or this:
The string of potentially damaging news reports about Franken and his salacious satirical work does not appear to have tarnished him as outside the mainstream of Minnesotan life. Equal proportions of voters view Franken and Coleman as representing the Minnesota way of life.

So, yes, he has no chance and he's hopelessly tarnished - except that the polls say the exact opposite. I guess I'll have to break the news to the DFL that some guy named "Michael" has weighed in, so any further polling is a waste of time. Think of the money we could have saved if we had only consulted you first. Now we know that Republicans won't vote for Franken, so it's over.

Still, I think that 42% "unfavourable" for an incumbent shows a very vulnerable candidate, especially since Coleman has not broken 50% in any polling...ever.

Also, the D/R/I is 50/39/10. This is very close to the ratio Rasmussen used up until 8/13, when the ratio inexplicably was adjusted in the Republicans' favour by 9 points, causing Obama's lead to drop to +2.

LBJ and Bentsen ran for their US Senate Seat and V...

2008-08-22T14:15:00.000-04:00

LBJ and Bentsen ran for their US Senate Seat and Vice President Simultenously. JFK-LBJ ticket won. Dukakis-Bentsen ticket lost.

The 2008 Virginia US Senate Race is the 2006 Penns...

2008-08-22T13:56:00.000-04:00

The 2008 Virginia US Senate Race is the 2006 Pennsylvania US Senate Race. (Casey-D vs Santorum-R). Popular Moderate Democrat vs Unpopular Controversial Conservative Republican. 59-40 race(Warner-D). Gilmore will probally joining Ollie North and Rick Santorum in the FOXNews channel.
The 2008 New Mexico US Senate Race is the 2006 Ohio US Senate Race (Brown-D vs DeWine-R)between a Populist Liberal Democrat vs a Conservative Republican. 57-42 percent race (Udall-D). Pearce will probally resign earlier to join some type of Lobby firm.
The 2008 Alaska US Senate Race is the 2000 Delaware US Senate Race(Carper-D vs Roth-R). The race between Old/Corrupt vs Freshface. It is going to be a 55-44 percent race(Begich-D).
The 2008 New Hampshire US Senate Race is the 2006 Rhode Island US Senate Race(Whitehouse-D vs Chaffee) - New England Blue state Republican loses. It is going to be a 54-45 favoring (Shaheen-D).
The 2008 Colorado US Senate Race is the 2000 Minnesota US Senate Race(Dayton-D vs Grams-R)- Liberal Democrat vs Conservative Republican. The is a 52-47 percent race favoring (Udall-D).
The 2008 Minnesota US Senate race is going to be the 2000 Michigan US Senate Race(Stabenow-D vs Abraham). A Weak first term incumbent from a blue state loses. 50-49 percent race favoring Franken(D).
The 2008 Oregon US Senate Race is going to be the 2000 Washington US Senate race(Cantwell-D vs Gorton-R). Smith loses being a Blue State republican Senator- 50-49 percent race favoring Merkley(D).
MS-B will be like the 2006 VA US Senate race. It will be a 5

Senator Obama's voting record is to the left of se...

2008-08-22T13:43:00.000-04:00

Senator Obama's voting record is to the left of self-declared socialist Bernie Sanders. While he probably wouldn't be considered a socialist in Europe, he's about as far left as you can get in America while still being mainstream. Morgan, not sure if it's already been answered but Biden or any sitting senator will likely run for their Senate seat in case they lose in the Presidential as Lieberman did in 2000 and someone a long time ago I can't seem to remember

AnotherMike I would even take Franken @ 25 or 50:1...

2008-08-22T13:42:00.000-04:00

AnotherMike

I would even take Franken @ 25 or 50:1 at this stage.

He is probably even money. IF Obama wins by 5+ in MN in November [likely] then Franken might ride his coattails in.

After all, this was Wellstone's seat...

Franken has zero, zip, nada, NO chance of being el...

2008-08-22T13:38:00.001-04:00

Franken has zero, zip, nada, NO chance of being elected as US Senator from Minnesota. His anti-woman PORNO-RAMA article in Playboy doomed his already long shot bid.

It is utterly amazing that otherwise rational observers veer into the weeds when it comes to their favorite lefties. Sorry fellas, Al is toast.

That's just stupid. If you mean what you say, I'll take Franken at 100-1 odds, you name the amount. If you were just talking out of your ass, then I'll know to ignore you next time.