Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: 538 Battlegrounds as of Mid-July

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2009-10-08T07:26:09.093-04:00

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2009-09-11T02:22:05.916-04:00

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2009-03-11T21:58:00.001-04:00

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2009-03-11T21:58:00.000-04:00

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2009-02-14T01:55:00.000-05:00

Bob:Where is this "everywhere" where Rasmussen pol...

2008-07-18T23:23:00.000-04:00

Bob:

Where is this "everywhere" where Rasmussen polls are discredited, and on what basis are they discredited?

Rasmussen pols are discredited everywhere. Why on ...

2008-07-18T16:45:00.000-04:00

Rasmussen pols are discredited everywhere. Why on earth do you pay any attention to them?

Obama is going to destroy McBush in CA, NY, entire...

2008-07-18T11:52:00.000-04:00

Obama is going to destroy McBush in CA, NY, entire New England area, etc...

Obama shouldn't even worry so much about the south, focus hard on Ohio, Missouri, & a couple others..

Iowa, New Mexico, & Colorado should turn blue this time...Obama has lead in Iowa for 12 consecutive polls...

Obama 08!

The 5 PM Rasmussen poll showing Obama with a slim ...

2008-07-17T18:07:00.000-04:00

The 5 PM Rasmussen poll showing Obama with a slim lead in Nevada is intriguing. It's starting to look like the blue states are slowly nibbling away at the periphery of the red. Not much, but maybe enough.

I'm reposting this comment here - I had originally...

2008-07-17T16:04:00.000-04:00

I'm reposting this comment here - I had originally placed it in the "Today's Polls" category for 7/17. Thanks!

Hello all-

In looking at this model, I couldn't help but wonder how it would look/compare to the 2004 election at the same point in time. I've been mulling over Nate's "Battleground" post from yesterday and wanted to share some findings with you all.

I decided to do some investigating - and using the polling data from the 2004 election cycle on USelectionatlas.org, I generated a polling average for Kerry/Bush as of July 2004 in each of Nate's currently projected 2008 battleground states. I then compared these to Nate's 2008 polling averages in these sates. I am using the basic polling average and not any of the trend/regression adjusted numbers.

For simplicity sake, I am just showing the difference between the two candidates. Also, please note that in the case of Montana, there were apparently no polls done in the '04 cycle prior to an ARG poll in September.

The results were as follows:
Polling Averages as of July

North Carolina
Bush/Kerry: Bush +6.5
McCain/Obama: McCain +3.9

Florida
Bush/Kerry: Bush +0.9
McCain/Obama: McCain +2.0

Missouri
Bush/Kerry: Bush +3.4
McCain/Obama: McCain +1.4

Nevada
Bush/Kerry: Bush +2.8
McCain/Obama: McCain +2.9

Indiana
Bush/Kerry: Bush +18.5
McCain/Obama: McCain +1.7

Montana
Bush/Kerry: Bush +25.0
McCain/Obama: McCain +0.3

Virginia
Bush/Kerry: Bush +5.0
McCain/Obama: Obama +1.0

Colorado
Bush/Kerry: Bush +5.0
McCain/Obama: Obama +3.7

Ohio
Bush/Kerry: Bush +0.1
McCain/Obama: Obama +3.8

Michigan
Bush/Kerry: Kerry +3.4
McCain/Obama: Obama +5.2

New Mexico
Bush/Kerry: Kerry +3.0
McCain/Obama: Obama +5.4

As you can see from this, McCain is doing significantly worse than Bush at this point in the cycle (compared to 2004) in everyone of Nate's 2008 battleground states, with the exception of Florida and Nevada. In those two cases, McCain is up 1.1 and 0.1 respectfully. Obama is doing better than Kerry in all the other listed states. In the cases of Indiana and Montana he is doing ridiculously better.

For me, my next step is to look at the next batch of state's Nate identified and compare those vs. the 2004 election. Anyway, I hope ya'll find this interesting. I certainly did.

UPDATE: 1% Of Americans Think Barack Obama Is Jewi...

2008-07-17T11:15:00.000-04:00

UPDATE: 1% Of Americans Think Barack Obama Is Jewish!

http://blogs.tnr.com/tnr/blogs/the_plank/archive/2008/07/10/barack-obama-secret-jew.aspx

Not only do 12% think he's Muslim, only 57% think he's a Christian of any type (Baptist, Methodist, etc.) I think we now have official proof that Americans are pretty clueless!

What's encouraging is that 28% said they didn't know, hadn't heard or refused to answer the question. At least they are admitting ignorance which means they are educable.

It's the idiots who think they know he's a "secret Muslim" that can't be reasoned with.

without clicking that I'm guessing it's rickroll

2008-07-17T10:05:00.000-04:00

without clicking that I'm guessing it's rickroll

wow...great site0_0NEW MCCAIN VIDEO-MUST SEE-(CLIC...

2008-07-17T09:53:00.000-04:00

wow...

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0_0

NEW MCCAIN VIDEO

-MUST SEE-(CLICK HERE)

FU** PUMAOBAMA RAISED $52 Million in JuneOBAMA WIL...

2008-07-17T09:50:00.000-04:00

FU** PUMA

OBAMA RAISED $52 Million in June

OBAMA WILL WIN IT !!

PUMA NEWS ALERTMCCAIN IS WINNING !THE PARTY IS RES...

2008-07-17T09:47:00.000-04:00

PUMA NEWS ALERT

MCCAIN IS WINNING !

THE PARTY IS RESPONSIBLE !!!

HILLARY-WE LOVE YOU

Hey, SelenesMom,Stop living your life through your...

2008-07-17T09:43:00.000-04:00

Hey, SelenesMom,

Stop living your life through your daughter! It's time to cut the cord, sweetie!

I could not resist this thread is dying . . .

100 million silent Americans God, I wish. Seems t...

2008-07-17T09:29:00.000-04:00

100 million silent Americans

God, I wish. Seems to me 100 million noisy Americans have posted irrelevant, thoughtless crap in this thread so that we all have to pick through it to find the good stuff.

Once again, it would be great if the partisans on ...

2008-07-17T09:26:00.000-04:00

Once again, it would be great if the partisans on each side would take their squabbling somewhere else. There are lots of sites where such arguments are appropriate and welcome. They just use up bandwidth here.

(I realize it's probably a hopeless plea.)

On a more relevant topic, I'd be interested in Nate or Sean commenting on the overall tightening of the EV estimates over the last few weeks. From what I can tell, it stems in part from the "red" and "blue" states to move slightly in the direction of their predicted homes. Is it also impacted by "decay" in the impact of older polls in some states?

I realize that the topic has been touched on in a number of posts, but it would be useful to see the issue addressed directly.

Anon: you sound like a pretty hopeless Obama suppo...

2008-07-17T09:20:00.000-04:00

Anon: you sound like a pretty hopeless Obama supporter.

On Hamilton County and Anon @1:11AM--A good part o...

2008-07-17T09:19:00.000-04:00

On Hamilton County and Anon @1:11AM--

A good part of Schmidt's district stretches along the Ohio river to the eastern parts of the state. Redneck country. It was Rob Portman's old district and it is a Republican District. Both she and Chabot have run close races of late, but tend to hold on. Hamilton is more or less a pink county, not red. It may be that Obama can improve his margins over Kerry's. We will have to see.

His strength, as elsewhere, will be determined by AA turnout. Thus far other than the color of his skin, he has given black folk littl reason to vote for him, as he has ignored them along with Americans of Muslim heritage out of political expedience. Jesse Jackson may have been more phrophetic than any liberal white Obama supporters may wish to believe.

(This comment has not been approved by any moderator and reflects soley the views of this author and 100 million silent Americans who are sick and tired of the smugness of the Obama campaign)

I am a Obama supporter. Just stating my opinion of...

2008-07-17T09:17:00.000-04:00

I am a Obama supporter. Just stating my opinion of how things will break on election day. It's sad but you need to expect it.
-Anonymous

Poblano is a nice man - why would you not vote for...

2008-07-17T09:12:00.000-04:00

Poblano is a nice man - why would you not vote for him, Anonymous?

Most heard quote of late deciders: He seems like a...

2008-07-17T09:01:00.000-04:00

Most heard quote of late deciders: He seems like a nice man but I just didn't feel comfortable voting for . . .

Humanist anonymous,this number is generated by a m...

2008-07-17T08:59:00.000-04:00

Humanist anonymous,

this number is generated by a method which is completely distinct from that by which Nate generates his national numbers. Is there indeed a discrepancy between the two? If not, how come? If there is one, what to make of ths discrepancy?

The numbers are generated in different ways. So yes, there is a discrepancy. I haven't worked out all the mathematical differences, but a big one is that the super tracker does not include demographic information. He later adjusts for this when he uses the super tracker curve to apply the trend adjustment.

I think he could get rid of this discrepancy by including "state" variables in his main regression model, and maybe including "pollster" variables as well to weed out any pollster bias. But perhaps his simulations have shown that the way he does things now is better.

My hypothesis: Late decideding voters will break M...

2008-07-17T08:50:00.000-04:00

My hypothesis: Late decideding voters will break McCain to 2:1 or even 3:1 much like Hillary voters. Of course Dems will have much higher GOTV effort. Propably a wash with a Obama win in a close vote.