Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: The Undecideds

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2009-10-03T04:45:07.571-04:00

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2009-08-21T02:21:40.622-04:00

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2009-07-23T01:44:14.455-04:00

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^^ very nice 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社, 徵...

2009-03-12T05:29:00.001-04:00

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2009-03-12T05:29:00.000-04:00

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2009-02-08T22:19:00.000-05:00

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2009-01-17T05:01:00.000-05:00

Conscious or unconscious pretty crazy undecided vo...

2008-10-31T20:17:00.000-04:00

Conscious or unconscious pretty crazy undecided voters still exist at all:
http://www.236.com/news/2008/10/31/wtf_are_undecideds_undecided_a_9904.php

Thanks for the great info! Too Shy to Stop writer...

2008-10-30T11:16:00.000-04:00

Thanks for the great info! Too Shy to Stop writer Lauren Bucci just wrote an article about websites that claim to help undecided votes. You can read the piece here.

lat: "i find it funny that people read this site,...

2008-10-29T18:31:00.000-04:00

lat: "i find it funny that people read this site, appluad Nate and then totally ignore what he says. Until I see the crucial states (PA, CO, VA which else?) within 2 points by 2 pollsters I am not freaking out."

Absolutely. My post above is only food for thought. Anyone freaking out over the closet McCainiacs in the undecided camp is missing the biggest point of all: Even if McCain gets a 4% bounce in every state, he still loses based on current data.

Kerry+IA+NM+any is still Game Over.

If you're freaking out, show how undecideds are going to pick off one of Kerry+IA+Nm and then every toss-up. The math isn't there unless there's something a lot bigger than undecideds in the mix.

Great analysis, Nate. But like all analysis, it i...

2008-10-29T18:22:00.000-04:00

Great analysis, Nate. But like all analysis, it is subject to your assumptions. And I'm not sure I agree with them in this case.

Based purely on anecdotal evidence amongst extended family, I notice that a few very conservative folks are claiming to be undecided. They are the same folks who ask questions related to right-wing smears, like "I heard Obama... [eats babies, whatever]" or "I got an email saying...". They never quite admit they buy the smear, just asking about it. I sense they buy it but are looking for affirmation to express their support of it. They aren't getting it, so they sheepishly just "ponder" the issues raised.

If a pollster called them, I have no doubt they'd say undecided. I also have no doubt that they're voting McCain once they hit the booth.

I'm not sure what to call it. Not exactly the Bradley effect, more the "RNC smear effect" or the "closet dittohead effect" They're afraid to admit openly that they are buying into the smear campaign, because they're being told its a smear campaign intended to rile up idiots. And they don't want to admit to being an idiot. Until they hit the booth.

Someone else could maybe relay this point better that I am here in this small box. But I really feel there is something to this. And it isn't necessarily racial.

The only tightening we're seeing is that of Republ...

2008-10-29T14:03:00.000-04:00

The only tightening we're seeing is that of Republican sphincters across the nation.
Nate: it seems to me that this article is at odds with the previous "black turnout surge" article.

@ elizabethWow. __________________________________...

2008-10-29T10:47:00.000-04:00

@ elizabeth

Wow.
__________________________________________

"(1) Prove to me that the “masses” in the US questioned authority in the 60s. And don’t spout general cultural memory nonsense about marching in the streets or “dropping out.” Show me statistically that the “mass” of people were questioning authority in the US, and were doing it more so than, say, after Watergate.

(2) If you think the “masses” are questioning authority right now, you are crazy.

"I am a huge Obama supporter. But it’s very important, I think, to distinguish when people disapprove of a president, certain members of Congress, or even certain policies from such generalizing/romanticizing notions like the “masses questioning authority.” Americans are a very authoritative people, and I don’t really see that changing. Why don’t you ask Obama why he decided to start wearing that flag pin? Or why the Colin Powell endorsement mattered?"

_______________________________________

Your post is filled with so many issues that I cannot take them all on in one attempt. I'll leave you with the most glaring question: "Why don't you ask Obama why he decided to start wearing that flag pin?"

Why is it that Obama is held to a double standard of being expected to show his patriotism by wearing a flag pin when McCain does NOT wear one? Plenty of video out there to support this. And since when does one's patriotism rely on wearing a flag pin matter? Are you wearing a flag pin now?

But in all fairness, I appreciate a fellow Obama supporter. As far as the 'masses questioning authority' are concerned, you'll have to e-mail me with everyone else at the above mentioned post.

@hermance"And, please, lay off the condescension. ...

2008-10-29T10:18:00.000-04:00

@hermance

"And, please, lay off the condescension. Just because I am younger than you are does not mean that I am 12 years old"

Fair enough.

And @ aussie

Shout out to my brother from down under.

Don't know if this will reach both of you (I'm new to blogging) but you can continue this discussion by e-mailing me at audacitymedia at yah00 dot com. I have more to say on the topic.

@aussie:“The 60's were a time that the "masses" qu...

2008-10-29T10:01:00.000-04:00

@aussie:
“The 60's were a time that the "masses" questioned the authority and integrity of the Government. They were right to do so.

The "masses" are doing so again and I believe that it is this vibe that feels so familiar to Davy.”

(1) Prove to me that the “masses” in the US questioned authority in the 60s. And don’t spout general cultural memory nonsense about marching in the streets or “dropping out.” Show me statistically that the “mass” of people were questioning authority in the US, and were doing it more so than, say, after Watergate.

(2) If you think the “masses” are questioning authority right now, you are crazy.

I am a huge Obama supporter. But it’s very important, I think, to distinguish when people disapprove of a president, certain members of Congress, or even certain policies from such generalizing/romanticizing notions like the “masses questioning authority.” Americans are a very authoritative people, and I don’t really see that changing. Why don’t you ask Obama why he decided to start wearing that flag pin? Or why the Colin Powell endorsement mattered?

To illustrate my point the the uncommitted/undecid...

2008-10-29T09:53:00.000-04:00

To illustrate my point the the uncommitted/undecideds are likely to be more critical in the closest states, take a look at today's (Wednesday morning's) state polls on RCP.

Florida (AP): O 45, M 43 (Undec: 12)
Florida (Quin.): O 47 M 45 (Undec: 8)

NC (AP): O 48, M 46 (Undec: 6)

If all the undecideds vote, and if they vote 2/3 for McCain, McCain wins. Of course this doesn't break out race, ethnicity.

But my point earlier was that doing the analysis at the national level only, as Nate has done, may not be the most instructive way to do it. One reason why states such as FL and NC remain close is that significant percentages of voters haven't declared their intention. So the analysis needs to focus on undecideds in those situations.

It would be nice to have one of those famous little calculators that Nate had produced in the past. This time allowing us to play "which way will the undecideds break"?

@slicknickshadyThat's what people here were saying...

2008-10-29T09:50:00.000-04:00

@slicknickshady

That's what people here were saying 2 days ago. I said the Obama camapaign had slumped and it was being reflected in most of the polls. I said it's inexplicable to me how McCain makes ANY gains at this point, given the in-fighting and sniping surrounding his camapaign, but apparently he's getting a bounce in the polls.

If the state polls remain stable from now untl election day, then the national trackers who are leaking results to Drudge are cooking their polls to help McCain. Given the current landscape, the PEW poll released yesterday showing Obama 15% ahead is whar I'd expect the other polls to look like.

Either PEW is gonna come out looking like the best pollster of all-time next week, or it's reputation will plummet to Zogby-like levels.

inkstain, I'm talking about those 2% outliers, and...

2008-10-29T09:40:00.000-04:00

inkstain,
I'm talking about those 2% outliers, and if you read my post again, I was talking about exactly the same unique circumstances as I presume you are talking about. For sure, even though I have closely watched at least 15 presidential elections, this one is by far the most unique one, but it is also the first one after the COLLAPSE of the Trickle Down Theory which I honestly believe will radically (revolutionarily) change the precept of capitalisim so the greedy fat cats can NEVER again do what they did to get us into this mess (take all the money honest people invested in the stock market and run).
I think Obama is going to bring out the model of PRAGMATIC (no, not "liberal") capitalism, which is not "socialism", but capitalism for the masses. That is a safeguard we really need, and I think our country, the wealth of our people, and our infrastructure will benefit greatly from it. That's why he talks about how we are all responsible for working hard toward contributing something.

concern trolls are out in droves today. you are be...

2008-10-29T09:35:00.000-04:00

concern trolls are out in droves today. you are being overdramatic porridge.

It seems a consenus opionion is forming around the...

2008-10-29T09:30:00.000-04:00

It seems a consenus opionion is forming around the same points I was making 2 days ago. I just checked Kos and they're annoyed with Obama's passiveness, lack of intensity and not hitting back harder against the ridiculous charges that have lobbed at him from the Republicans and the right-wing media.

5% drop-off over 3 days in the supposedly "stable" Ras poll is significant, as are the the other trackers, which I personally loathe. Fact is, these last few days have been the worst for Obama since the Republican convention, and it didn't have to be. I thought the Powell endorsement was perhaps a week too early, but was unavoidable, and since then Obama has been playing defense nationally.

BTW, I'm glad Obama is still at 50% and the state polls today look fairly stable, but Obama can't afford to have any more bad polling days in the national trackers. Eventually the state polls will catch up, and this election will be within stealing distance. I've been saying this for days, and nobody gave a shit.

i find it funny that people read this site, applua...

2008-10-29T09:29:00.000-04:00

i find it funny that people read this site, appluad Nate and then totally ignore what he says. Until I see the crucial states (PA, CO, VA which else?) within 2 points by 2 pollsters I am not freaking out.

Have been canvassing and calling for weeks and I t...

2008-10-29T09:27:00.000-04:00

Have been canvassing and calling for weeks and I think I have insight into the undecideds. Those that are truly undecided do not like either candidate -- that is why they cannot make up their minds and I think some of them will not be voting. They say things like "What a choice. I can't stand either one of them." Others do not think it is any of the callers business but rather than say they want to keep it private, they say they are undecided. Others have decided but are afraid to tell you because they think that their answer will be available to others like their employer etc.I wonder if a number of the African Americans are in this group (see the article on fear among AAs in Florida in todays NYT). BTW, thanks so much for this site. I am a first time poster but I study and read this everyday!

@simeon: Well, that's true. But at least this vers...

2008-10-29T09:26:00.000-04:00

@simeon: Well, that's true. But at least this version of crazy talk is demonstrably crazy, what with all the double-digit polls. McCain taking PA is less likely than Bush taking NJ in '04 or CA in '00 IMO.

Come to think of it, McCain also keeps going to Iowa, for some batshit reason. So I stand corrected - the McCain camp has its share of crazy talk too. :)

damn there are a lot of concern trolls out today.

2008-10-29T09:25:00.000-04:00

damn there are a lot of concern trolls out today.

so are we not going to go by Nate's tightening for...

2008-10-29T09:23:00.003-04:00

so are we not going to go by Nate's tightening formula--2 2 2?

national polls will tighten. what matters is the states.s

Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: The Undecideds

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^^ very nice 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社, 徵...

^^ nice blog!! ^@^徵信, 徵信網, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵...

徵信社, 感情挽回, 挽回感情, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 捉姦, 徵信公司, ...

情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,...

Conscious or unconscious pretty crazy undecided vo...

Thanks for the great info! Too Shy to Stop writer...

lat: "i find it funny that people read this site,...

Great analysis, Nate. But like all analysis, it i...

The only tightening we're seeing is that of Republ...

@ elizabethWow. __________________________________...

@hermance"And, please, lay off the condescension. ...

@aussie:“The 60's were a time that the "masses" qu...

To illustrate my point the the uncommitted/undecid...

@slicknickshadyThat's what people here were saying...

inkstain, I'm talking about those 2% outliers, and...

concern trolls are out in droves today. you are be...

It seems a consenus opionion is forming around the...

i find it funny that people read this site, applua...

Have been canvassing and calling for weeks and I t...

@simeon: Well, that's true. But at least this vers...

damn there are a lot of concern trolls out today.

so are we not going to go by Nate's tightening for...

キャッシングインプラントクレジットカード　現金化