Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Clinton Campaign Didn’t Grasp Rudimentary Proporti...

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2009-10-08T06:11:10.437-04:00

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2009-09-15T01:53:11.384-04:00

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2009-02-15T22:01:00.000-05:00

There's been an anecdotal, supposedly apocryphal, ...

2008-08-15T13:37:00.000-04:00

There's been an anecdotal, supposedly apocryphal, story going around that Mark Penn averred at an internal Clinton campaign meeting well into the fall of last year that he was confident that Hillary would go over the top after California and New York because they were "winner take all" primaries. I have always dismissed the story as Penn bashing (not that he doesn't deserve to be bashed), but reading Nate's piece makes me think that maybe he was actually that misinformed and incompetent.

I agree with those who say this isn't about sexism. She hired these idiots and payed them boatloads of cash (much of which they might not be able to collect now, boo-hoo) to KNOW stuff like this but they didn't know it and they were mostly men.

Matthew H said: "No wonder women hate math.(sorry,...

2008-08-15T08:25:00.000-04:00

Matthew H said:
"No wonder women hate math.

(sorry, somebody had to say it!)"

Really? Are you really sorry? And are you sure that someone "had" to say it? Most women and a non-significant percentage of men find comments like this offensive and not at all funny. It was not Hillary Clinton's job to check the delegate count in each of the congressional districts and to figure out her percentage needed to bump up to the next delegate. That was the job of the MEN whom she hired. Was she a bad campaign leader? Maybe, but there is no evidence she hated math or was bad at it.

I know you're thinking, "Simmer down, it was just a joke. Of course I know it was her employees who made the mistake. How could you read my comment that way?" I read it this way because all of these little jokes add up every day. And that, my friend, is precisely why women hate math. Every day someone makes a joke or a comment that women are worse at it, in spite of all of the evidence to the contrary suggesting the "math gap" is gone. Read about something called "stereotype threat" for a minute. It explains a lot about why certain groups of people are worse at academic skills than others. The stupid, small jokes that people make just amplify the problem.

clarkejeffrey:I think this is a fine piece of anal...

2008-08-14T21:30:00.000-04:00

clarkejeffrey:

I think this is a fine piece of analysis, but I'm not sure what it can really tell us.

Here's why: You are trying to impute rationality to the final decision drivers of undecided voters. If we learn anything from elections beginning with RWR and ending with GWB, it is that undecideds go with their feelings about the candidate they do or do not trust, about the candidate with whom they do or do not feel comfortable.

I don't understand this. In fact, I think it's nuts when a union worker votes for the biggest union buster of the second half of the 20th century, Ronald Reagan; I think it's nuts when middle class and blue collar workers go overwhelmingly for George W. Bush who screwed them repeatedly and who tried to shut down program after program that from which they benefitted.

Here's the deal: for undecided voters (i.e., not idealogical voters like me and, I assume, you), the vote for president is one of the most personal things they do outside of the privacy of their bedrooms.

The more removed the candidate and the office from their everyday lives, the more personal the vote becomes.

In an election for School Committee or City Council, it's all about what the candidate will DO for this voter. Will s/he get better classroom supplies? Will s/he get the street paved in front of their house. Same thing for State Legislatures and even for the US House.

When you get to the Senate, it becomes more about the candidate. Do I like him? Does she understand my concerns? There is still an element of the transactional (what will s/he do, but it gets muted), but it becomes increasingly about the person (not necessarily the personality BTW) of the candidate.

By the time it gets to choosing POTUS, the undecideds' votes are all about the degree to which a candidate reflects their view of the world and their vision of themselves, their country and their relationship to their country. It's an incredibly personal and emotional decision that shapes up differently every four years. It's why trying to project in July or August what will happen on the first Tuesday of November is like trying to nail lemon merangue pie to a plate glass window. As I have said several times out here, the contours of this race that will end up driving how undecideds (12.4% in today's RCP Average!) won't be clear until the middle of September.

DCM, no i´m not racist.More whites because in my c...

2008-08-14T20:31:00.000-04:00

DCM, no i´m not racist.
More whites because in my country majority of the poblation are white because they are indoeuropeans.

Dario,Our country is great, but politics here are ...

2008-08-14T19:06:00.000-04:00

Dario,

Our country is great, but politics here are also terribly corrupted - just in a slightly more genteel way...

lobbyists & money & power have too much influence in our republic.

why the need to explain that your people are more white ? comes across as patronizing & racist...

some mexicans are light & blue-eyed, and unfortuantely there is a caste system there as in many countries [including the USA].

very sad in 2008...

Mahalo

DCM, Argentinian and mexican politics are corrupte...

2008-08-14T18:44:00.000-04:00

DCM, Argentinian and mexican politics are corrupted. I live here since 1992. This country is the best.
The difference between argentinian and mexican people is that argentinians are more white because we are more indoeuropeans.

Just a minor note: 15% in any district guarantees ...

2008-08-14T18:35:00.002-04:00

Just a minor note: 15% in any district guarantees a delegate. So in that 3-delegate district, Clinton would have had to win a comical 85+% to shut out Obama.

Dario,Hello. I have family in Buenos Aires & live...

2008-08-14T18:35:00.001-04:00

Dario,

Hello. I have family in Buenos Aires & lived in SoCA=al for 25 years.

So I use hola as well as hello.

But I would not be so presumptuous as to pretend to divine Argetinian [or Mexican] politics...

Aloha

"anything from Buchanan . . . " that is. Nate, ti...

2008-08-14T18:35:00.000-04:00

"anything from Buchanan . . . " that is. Nate, time for an EDIT feature? ;)

MSNBC has a mostly democratic following, but is to...

2008-08-14T18:34:00.001-04:00

MSNBC has a mostly democratic following, but is totally fair to republicans with the exception of Olbermann. Fox was created to be partisan. Its news network, its discussion shows like Oreilly and Hannity. Their purpose is to alter perception, and give a partisan point of view.

This isn't my opinion, its a fact understood by everyone in the world

Tyrone! Back to Troll School! You failed a few c...

2008-08-14T18:34:00.000-04:00

Tyrone! Back to Troll School! You failed a few courses.

MSNBC is balanced, yes. I am dying laughing at your characterization of Chuck Todd and Chris Matthews as liberals. They balance out the left-leaning KO show with right-leaning Hardball, plus anything Buchanan, Mrs. Greenspan, and other prominently-featured such personages.

I know you guys hate it that KO has his own show. Sorry.

MSNBC is not even close to being fair and balanced...

2008-08-14T18:28:00.001-04:00

MSNBC is not even close to being fair and balanced. They might as well rename it to the Main Stream National Barack Channel because thats what it is, constant pushing of Barack Obama. Matthews, Todd, Olbermann, Maddow, are all left leaning liberals. They bring in Pat Buchannan to try and appear unbiased but they all gang up on Buchanan and cut him off before he can even get a point across.

At least FOX News brings in opposing viewpoints in equal numbers and treats them fairly and allows them to talk. 5 liberals and 1 conservative isn't fair.

DCM, i´m argentinian but i live in the USA. So say...

2008-08-14T18:28:00.000-04:00

DCM, i´m argentinian but i live in the USA. So say hello.

By the way, all of you whining about Rasmussen bei...

2008-08-14T18:26:00.001-04:00

By the way, all of you whining about Rasmussen being biased should start whining about PPP being biased too. Or do you welcome PPP polls in open arms?

The thing about partisan polls is that they only report results that are favorable. If the result isn't favorable, they discard it without making it public.

MSNBC is fair and balanced, Olbermann isn't.

2008-08-14T18:26:00.000-04:00

MSNBC is fair and balanced, Olbermann isn't.

Matt JH: Do you think MSNBC is fair and balanced?c...

2008-08-14T18:24:00.001-04:00

Matt JH: Do you think MSNBC is fair and balanced?

clarkjefferey: that military "contribution" poll is old and was taken during the beginning of the primary season, before McCain was even thought to have a chance to win. Even then, it showed that pretty much all of Obama's support came from black G.I.s, which is no surprise at all. If it were white G.I.s contributing to Obama, then maybe it would be newsworthy.

Re: musicman,you make an excellent point. there h...

2008-08-14T18:24:00.000-04:00

Re: musicman,

you make an excellent point. there has been discussion on why Rasmussen pushes respondents toward either Obama or McCain & under-represents OTHERs.

All pollsters that encourage a real expression of choice as opposed to a pushed selection show more Others & lower McCain.

But in reality, Others will probably fade/regress anyway closer to the election historically.

I was just in MN & people are talking about the big Paul rally planned in Mpls during the GOP convention. I wonder what if any impact that event might have on McCain & Others later ?

I have a serous question for my conservative frien...

2008-08-14T18:20:00.000-04:00

I have a serous question for my conservative friends here. Do conservatives believe FOX is a legit network? I'm not saying it isn't, but do you believe its fair and balanced?

Just curious.

A lot of these state polls don't include Barr and ...

2008-08-14T18:18:00.001-04:00

A lot of these state polls don't include Barr and Nader. Obama does much better in national polls when the whole field is included... so he may do better in states where these two others are on the ballots.

Either way, as was posted, many people are not paying attention right now. This election will turn on the VP choices, conventions, debates and GOTV.

Re: Mark said... To quote Donald Rumsfeld, "Henny ...

2008-08-14T18:18:00.000-04:00

Re: Mark said... To quote Donald Rumsfeld, "Henny Penny, the sky is falling!"

OK, you made me LOL - but PLEASE refrain from quoting Donnie Rumsfield in the future, or Dickey Cheney or Wolfowitz & others in their neo-con cabal.

Makes my skin crawl...

But good verbatim quotes from our current lame-duck, lame-brained POTUS are always welcomed... hehe

Well it does appear that McCain has gotten a good ...

2008-08-14T18:11:00.000-04:00

Well it does appear that McCain has gotten a good set of state polling the past couple of days, but either way, it seems like this polling isn't all that important, as we're in the lull right before the storm. Although I suppose the polling showing CO a tossup vindicates the Dems' decision to hold their convention there.

We're approximately a week away from a whole series of key campaign moments - the VP picks, the conventions, the debates, etc. Starting in about two weeks is when I want to see a ton of polling

OK Dario,I note that you are from Argentina so I w...

2008-08-14T18:10:00.000-04:00

OK Dario,

I note that you are from Argentina so I will extend an 'hola' to you.

But your posts are rather silly when you say...

"Darío said...
DCM, i´m not a troll. I´m not a McCain supporter.
See the RCP average in MN, it´s Obama + 2.5 (toss-up), and in CO it´s Obama +0.4."

and state that these early snapshot poll results indicate that Obama is toast.

Sorry my friend [borrowing from Johny Mac] but that is just plain nonsense.

You are free to offer rational comment that these results MIGHT indicate a close race or toss-up AT THIS MOMENT IN TIME - but the underlying metrics still appear to provide comfort to Obama & probably flase hope to McCain.

I mean, come on - Obama is on VACATION for a week now & that is all that McCranky can muster with a big assist from Scott Rasmussen & the GOP machine & neo-con parrots ???

In mid-September then we will see where the trends are projecting for November.

Until then we get mostly noise & petty partisan bickering...