Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Black Vote Was Invisible To Penn

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2009-02-08T22:59:00.000-05:00

Clinton used the word "caucasian" in her ostensibl...

2008-08-13T18:01:00.000-04:00

Clinton used the word "caucasian" in her ostensible concession speech. Outside of Georgia and the Caucuses who uses that term except to race-bate.

The American people are both sophisticated and susceptible to manipulation. There is multiple layered thing going on. That explains both the Bradley Effect and the Reverse Bradley Effect.

Americans by and large are FAIR. There is that small 2% fringe of KKKs, but at first blush AND deep down Americans are not racists and believe in fairness for ALL and know that racial discrimination is wrong.

The manipulation happens between first blush face value and the deep down.

The "race card" gets played on the fairness circuits. Its not fair for anyone to be the victim of discrimination. But as famous French philospher/anthropologist, Renee Girard has pointed out the scapegoat (victim) gets twisted into the hero/god/special status as a way of hiding the original persecution of the innocent. But the fairness circuits also detect that there is something unfair about the twisting for the victim into a special status, because after all fairness is supposed to mean equality for all. It's only if you recognize the manipulation that can you get back to the "deep down" where there is race is not impediment to decision-making.

So the "race card effect" gets played drawing attention to race via
1. direct language E.g. Ferraro: O is getting attention because he is black, i.e., special and special is not fair)
2. indirect code - For example, ("experience") "Experience" is being use as short hand for meritocratic path for advancement (fair) vs "special path" for advancement (not fair)
3. OR by simply talking about race, i.e. the Bradley Effect gets tossed around as if it is true even when the evidence is pretty weak or Clinton, using the word "caucasian" which is how Wallace used to do it.

The way around it is to make sure your getting to American's at the deepest level of morality. To do that you have to deracialize without homogenizing.

So when Nate does his state demographic snapshot he should use a broader Ancestry response, rather than just African American and "American".

Mule Rider,No document that you know of allows our...

2008-08-12T23:11:00.000-04:00

Mule Rider,
No document that you know of allows our popular government to promote egalitarian social policies-- Nothing really? Are you still reading the confederate constitution? You might want to read the preamble of the US constitution that states that We the People, in order to form a more perfect union, establish justice, insure domestic tranquility, provide for the common defense, promote the general welfare, and secure the blessings of liberty to ourselves and our posterity do ordain and establish this Constitution...

Which parts of this statement do you oppose -- union, justice, the general welfare, national defense or personal liberty? Or, maybe you don't like the necessary & proper clause for carrying out these government powers, the income tax amendment, equal protection, due process, the prohibition of slavery or the right to vote?

PeteKent,You would almost be amusing if you weren'...

2008-08-12T22:03:00.000-04:00

PeteKent,

You would almost be amusing if you weren't so ignorant. You are a two time Bush boy, you wouldn't know leadership if it smacked you in the face and ran up your ass. McCain is showing leadership in your brilliance by making a foolish statatemnt "we will make them pay." Just how? We have zero leverage on Russia, in fact they can screw us over by screwing with the oil market, yeh bucko the Russians have alot of oil. We have no military optins b/c boy blunder has us mired in Iraq....remember that country that never attacked us, but those as yourself were chearing to invade. Putin has been laughing at Bush and would at McLame also. Bush looked into Putin's eyes and "saw goodness"...Putin looked into Bush's eyes and saw an idiot! If Putin looked into McLame's eyes he would see a grumpy old man who thinks he's in 1968 USSR/USA cold war world mkaing big statements with nothing to back it up.

Obama made a measured statement b/c making a big mouth statement with nothing to back it up like McCain did makes one see foolish. That's the McCain way..kind of like calling your wife a trollop with a painted on face. Class act that McCain.

Read the Steve Huntley in today’s Chicago Sun Time...

2008-08-12T20:47:00.000-04:00

Read the Steve Huntley in today’s Chicago Sun Times Very good statement of the state of play re Georgia. http://www.suntimes.com/news/huntley/1102552,CST-EDT-hunt12.article Pick it up off Real Clear Politics.

On the Georgian War, Obama showed no leadership. He basically followed the lead of the President Bush and John McCain.

McCain in particular showed leadership on this. While Bush seemed to squander the opportunity to confront Putin in Beijing, McCain got out in front and condemned the Russians for their naked act of aggression against our democratic ally and vowed to make them pay, a sentiment echoed at the Bush administration. And a couple of days later by the Obama campaign.

Obama was lead by McCain on this.

He got himself schooled.

Ready to lead?

McCain is a CelebrityI love Obama's new McCain is ...

2008-08-12T20:38:00.000-04:00

McCain is a Celebrity

I love Obama's new McCain is the Biggest Washington Celebrity ad. Like McCain did for Obama, he makes McCain looks glamorous. I love the jazzy music and McCain going about smiling and glad handing. He reminded me of one of the Rat Pack!

It was cool! It will appeal to the young and old.

Cementing one and attracting the other.

Mule Rider, I'm respectfully asking that you stop ...

2008-08-12T19:52:00.000-04:00

Mule Rider,
I'm respectfully asking that you stop with the name-calling (my favorite was when you called someone in an earlier post "boy" and threatened to find him and kick his ass. That was nice.).

I promise, you can make your point just as effectively without resorting to playground names. As a fellow life-long Southerner, I have to ask what wonder your mama say? Please stop. Thank yew.

CJ:Nice appology, I found it funny, could actually...

2008-08-12T19:49:00.000-04:00

CJ:

Nice appology, I found it funny, could actually picturing you squirming.

My point was not directed at you, but to the way in which the Obama campaign and its allies like to play this subtle (or not so subtle in your case) McCain is an old man game. I repeat: Bring it on.

For the record "your grumpy old men" reference is as offensive to all old people as calling Obama "arrogant" is to all black people.

We know what you meant, uppity, errr I mean, bunch of old coots.

Expect to see this narrative of the offended elderly beginning to take root -- and fear it.

Pete,When did I ever antagonize the elderly? I an...

2008-08-12T19:41:00.000-04:00

Pete,

When did I ever antagonize the elderly? I antagonized "grumpy old men". By no means would I define grumpy old men as all senior citizens.

Grumpy old men are a subset of senior citizens that tend to think everything is wrong with the youth of today.

There is a definite larger subset of older Americans that aren't grumpy old men (or grumpy old women). They are concerned with real issues and recognize that America's youth are actually very bright and ambitious.

McCain's latest set of ads appear to be targetted almost exclusively at grumpy old men. The problem is that there aren't enough of them by any stretch of the imagination and they aren't swing voters.

If you think that airing ads blaming everything on Taco Bell and Paris Hilton is going to be effective with the larger electorate, your in for a big surprise.

Clark Jeffrey:Keep on antagonizing the elderly, CJ...

2008-08-12T19:23:00.000-04:00

Clark Jeffrey:

Keep on antagonizing the elderly, CJ, and see where it gets you.

It is true enough that many of our older citizens feel abused and ignored. Funny, that they have found a champion in John McCain.

Just as blacks have Obama, the old farts have McCain. They will vote for one of their own, if only to prove to all you messed up young people that they remain vital and their views do matter.

Remember: these people vote.

All your ageism is going to get you is a kick in the pants, a great big "Hey you, kids, get offa my lawn!" on Election Day!

Start worrying. And please keep making your jokes.

And this is coming from a guy who is right about a...

2008-08-12T18:46:00.000-04:00

And this is coming from a guy who is right about average economically and would benefit from "tax breaks" and other entitlements from socialists/liberals/Democrats.

Y'all quote all of the rich who agree they should pay more....I'm one of the average guys who doesn't think he should pay less.

JRS said: "I'm also free to remain here and use my...

2008-08-12T18:41:00.000-04:00

JRS said: "I'm also free to remain here and use my vote to help bring U.S. national policies into the 21st century."

Wow. I've always believed in everyone having their own opinion of governance and having a vote on how they want to be ruled, but when I see a statement like that so far removed from our founding fathers' ideals of freedom, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness, I'm not so sure I want that person to be in the same place where each of our votes counts the same.

Hey, if you want to live in a government-controlled socialist environment, go right ahead. Let's just split this along ideological and physical lines like we did in 1861. Slavery won't be the issue anymore - it'll be freedom of a different kind - economic freedom. So, JRS, and other assholes like you, why don't you just take California and the rest of the West Coast, and upper Midwest, and the Northeast, and form your utopian "Socialist States of America" and leave the heartland and South to its free market status quo. If you all love to institute socialist programs, then go right ahead. Tell us how that works out....we'll keep chugging along in our own little capitalist world in the "Confederacy."

Remember one damn thing, pea brain: There is nothing - and I mean NOTHING - in the Bill of Rights/Constitution/Declaration of Independence or any other document that establishes the law of the land that says the government has the ability or should be in charge of taking from one group of its citizens (the rich, wealthy, succesful) to subsidize the economically disadvantaged.

I just read the Washington Post article that Pete ...

2008-08-12T18:34:00.000-04:00

I just read the Washington Post article that Pete Kent has been referring to about Obama's problems with older voters.

McCain has certainly tied up the grumpy old man vote. If you feel the overwhelming urge to punch a teenager at a mall, you're voting for McCain.

Its the swing voters that matter.

The middle age guy at the end of the article was a good example of the problem of the current McCain strategy. He's very patriotic and he typically votes for Republicans. Yet he is a swing voter this time. He hates flag burning, but he found the attacks on Obama for not wearing a flag pin to be "nitpicky".

Frankly, if McCain keeps trying to trivialize this campaign by attacking Paris Hilton and Taco Bell, while Obama talks about real issues, this guy is going to vote for Obama. If they actually talk about real issues, they might have a chance at him.

The Republicans can not win this election solely by mobilizing grumpy old men. That really appears to be their plan.

They are quickly losing the people in the middle. They need to cut the trivialization and cut it quickly or there will be a landslide in the making.

A couple of things:The back-and-forth between Adam...

2008-08-12T18:30:00.000-04:00

A couple of things:

The back-and-forth between Adam and VC - it shouldn't even be a discussion. But sadly, it is. Kudos to you and your arguments, VC, but unfortunately it's mostly in vain with someone so hellbent and myopic as Adam.

Without free market capitalism, there's no way in hell or on earth this country rises to the prominence it has over the last 232 years. No way. Whatsoever. Socialism has unequivocally been proven to be a letdown, if not an outright failure, in most instances.

Have there ever been any occasions when free market capitalism been inefficient or "failed"? Yes, but usually it's temporary and/or because of quasi-interference on the part of the government. Don't believe me? Guess you're too damn stupid to do 4-6 hours of study at the local library on the reams of economic literature and history of nations' successes and failures.

Does socialism always fail? No, and I'm sure that some of you ass-clowns are foaming at the mouth to point out instances it does "work."

What you fail to realize is that, when it does "work," it's not because the policies are necessarily "socialist," it's because the system still rewards hard work and innovation and punishes laziness and reckless decisions.

Am I a pure capitalist? Probably not. I don't mind some quasi-socialist programs that are in place to serve as an "insurance policy" for some Americans but still punishes what's blatantly wrong and rewards those who try to do right.

Social security is one example. I like that it provides "supplemental" income for people in retirement or through a disability or unemployment. But it should only be used as a RELIEF VALVE and NOT A CRUTCH siphon money off of higher income people just to provide for those who refuse to do anything to provide for themselves.

This is what you liberals don't get. We've raised taxes before to provide for these programs, and they go broke. Y'all want to keep doing it. Where do we draw the line? There's only so much "taxing" we can do. Eventually, you have to solve the ***-damn problem. And the problem is NOT that people making $250k, $500k, or whatever are not paying their fair share. The problem is a broken system that doesn't punish moochers and corrupt government officials for misusing or mismanaging the system.

****************

On the Nikki Tinker thing, that's a stupid comparison, ogre. I live outside of Memphis and know the issue. She's truly the biggest buffoon there is, and that's why Cohen held support. To Pete's argument, if she's at least mildly competent, she likely siphons several black voters simply based on her skin color.

I just watched the new McCain web ad.Let me summar...

2008-08-12T18:18:00.000-04:00

I just watched the new McCain web ad.

Let me summarize. There are a lot of Obama supporters and they eat at Taco Bell. If these taco eating people scare you, you need to vote for McCain.

Seriously, the ad spent like 15 seconds on the fact that a Taco Bell had its sales go up before an Obama rally. It presents this as if it is some sort of stunning new development.

I really have to ask the vaunted Republican attack machine:

Seriously, Is this all you got?

Its beyond pathetic. Its just sad.

Pete,I'm also free to remain here and use my vote ...

2008-08-12T18:12:00.000-04:00

Pete,
I'm also free to remain here and use my vote to help bring U.S. national policies into the 21st century.

JRS -- you are invited and free to move to any one...

2008-08-12T18:03:00.000-04:00

JRS -- you are invited and free to move to any one of them!

Life must be terrible under in welfare states unde...

2008-08-12T17:49:00.000-04:00

Life must be terrible under in welfare states under all those social democratic policies:

GDP per capita
National Rank (IMF)

1) Luxembourg
2) Norway
3) Qatar
4) Iceland
5) Ireland
6) Switzerland
7) Denmark
8) Sweden
9) Finland
10) Netherlands

11) U.S. !!??

PeteKent said... Interesting article in today's...

2008-08-12T17:30:00.000-04:00

PeteKent said...

Interesting article in today's WaPo about Obama's problem with older voters, epseically working class ones.

Do you think that was behind his announcement that he would lift taxes on seniors making less than $50,000 a year?

Nice pander!

sigh...maybe do some research for once before you post things that are factually in error (what a nice way of saying that...) Obama has had the position of exempting the first 50,000 for seniors for the entirety of the campaign, long before any polling on his purported problems with older poorer white folks who didn't go to college (the fabled Appalachian trail). It's a core position of his tax policy, but don't let the facts deter you in your observations. I know, I know, Obama is in an inexorable and inevitable downward death spiral, and once every two weeks you can cherry pick a poll to support the repeated claim.

One of these days we will see an article in the "liberal" Wapo on McCain's problem with women, blacks, Latinos, youth, labor, people under 45, people with a college degree, etc, etc...right, PK? and eeyore will grow a tail.

On Nate's post, there is one other key demographic not referenced in Nate's post: Youth - a demographic that turned out in historic numbers and went for Obama 65-35.

As to Penn, he personified the ugly side of the Clinton campaign, a side that won out for a while, to the detriment of the party. It is interesting to see that, as so many have charged, the "Obama as exotic and unamerican and unfamiliar and foreign" spin that makes it rounds in those psychotic smear emails that the synaptically-challenged believe, this spin was vigorously pushed by elements in the Clinton campaign as high as the chief strategist. Yes, the main reluctance the Obama crew have to raising money for Hillary's debt is that millions of it is to pay of the scab of a man, Penn, I think somewhere around 5 million dollars for injecting ugliness and division into the primary. I think if Hillary were to reject Penn's memos and say "that's why he was fired" and divorce his portion of the debt from the help she wanted from Obama, donors would be more forthcoming. Many in the Obama camp view Penn with about the same level of regard that most folks view Karl Rove.

"I guess that's why the Republicans only get 10% o...

2008-08-12T17:15:00.000-04:00

"I guess that's why the Republicans only get 10% of the vote in elections!"

Well, yeah. Republicans are pretty bad for most minorities, what with their anti-social services, anti-civil rights zealotry. Makes sense to me.