Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Gustav Could Be Boon to GOP

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2009-03-12T01:45:00.000-04:00

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2009-03-12T01:44:00.000-04:00

This will be one of the most closely-watched VP sp...

2008-09-03T12:12:00.000-04:00

This will be one of the most closely-watched VP speeches in a long time! Here's what she will say about the pregnancy: 'Barack Obama, stop attacking my family!'

I made a Google Trends comparison of googlers' int...

2008-09-01T19:35:00.000-04:00

I made a Google Trends comparison of googlers' interest in natural disasters of 5 types on my blog. Have a look!

Nate -The key thing is the timing. Since Gustav la...

2008-09-01T15:19:00.000-04:00

Nate -

The key thing is the timing. Since Gustav lands today, IF there is not serious damage, here are the benefits to the Republicans:

1. Hide Bush and Cheney from view.
2. Look magnanimous getting a "do-over"
3. Hide all the rabid right-wing speakers for Monday/Tuesday nights.
4. Public only has to tune in for two key speeches: Palin and McCain. Palin only has to read a teleprompter of a speech written by Karl Rove - she can probably do that well enough that it would "defy expectations." McCain can give a pretty good speech when he has special circumstances like Gustav and Georgia/Russia.
5. Press is less likely to make unflattering comparisons between lackluster Republican convention and Democratic crowds as "everyone was focused on New Orleans."

So a good case the Republicans are probably better off with Gustav hitting today and not causing major damage.

Here are the downsides:

1. No matter how you spin it, Gustav will remind people about Katrina.
2. Less media coverage means less free commerical time for Republicans.

The question is, how important is the media coverage to the convention bounce? I think it's a key element, so I think, short term, this may hurt the Republican "bounce", but long term, probably this is a benefit to the numbers as it lets them hide from view the lass flattering issues (Bush, lack of enthusiasm, far-right policies) and helps them pivot off the Democratic attack themes.

There must be some way that the Dems can make hay ...

2008-09-01T12:10:00.000-04:00

There must be some way that the Dems can make hay out of the fact that the Reps are happy that a hurricane saved them from Bush/Cheney!

The storm actually will be good for Sidney and the...

2008-09-01T08:08:00.000-04:00

The storm actually will be good for Sidney and the crew. The McMedia will have a good excuse not to look too closely at McCain's ideas so the viewing public still won't have the truth.

McSame gets to look presidential.

I'm sure that if Obama is campaigning on Monday we will all see that and it will be split screen with Sidney looking concerned at some Hurricane bunker.

How dumb is the elctoate of this country? I guess...

2008-09-01T04:28:00.000-04:00

How dumb is the elctoate of this country? I guess we will find out if McCain's presence in NO gives him a bump in the polls. Personally it offend sme immensely to be using this hurricane for polical points. Just pray for the people involved, raise money and support and stay away from the region with your motorcades and Secret Service. Show some true compassion.

The problem with a neutered Republican convention ...

2008-08-31T23:51:00.000-04:00

The problem with a neutered Republican convention is that this is usually the major 'get to know' part of the campaign. Add that to McCain's limited personal money post convention and the Republicans will have a major education problem. Unfortunately for them most people don't watch the debates they just react to the MSM post-debate coverage. Republicans are probably going to be limited to the base and traditional voters with little opportunity to woo the independents and the slothful.

There are potential pluses and minuses to an abbreviated convention but I think they will end up lacking due to its absence.

Palin stated:If [the Pledge of Allegiance includin...

2008-08-31T23:18:00.000-04:00

Palin stated:
If [the Pledge of Allegiance including the phrase 'under God'] was good enough for the founding fathers, its good enough for me and I’ll fight in defense of our Pledge of Allegiance.

Then VC stated:
She is saying "God" was good enough for the Founders, not the pledge.

Quit taking things out of context.

So whose comment is the worst here?

Palin obviously doesn't know the history of the Pledge of Allegiance and when the phrase 'under God' was inserted.

The Pledge of Allegiance was written in 1892. That would be more than 50 years after every one of the Founding Father had died, and more like 75 years after the vast majority of them had died.

The U.S. Congress officially recognized the Pledge as the official national pledge on June 22, 1942. That would be more than 100 years after every Founding Father had died.

On Flag Day. June 14, 1954, Presicent Eisenhower signed into law the bill to add the words 'Under God' into law. That was 12 years after the Pledge was made the official national pledge.

And it doesn't even discuss the changes in the Pledge as originally written, and as it stands today.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pledge_of_Allegiance

That takes care of the canard that Palin knows anything about the history of the Pledge of Allegiance.

As to VC's comment, if Palin is so God-fearing, why did she refer to God as 'it'? If she isn't discussing the Pledge (and she isn't if she knows it wasn't around when the Founding Fathers were still living), then the 'it' is a rather unflattering commentary on her respect for God, isn't it?

Inquiring minds want to know who is worse.

ok Janice....want to play the voting record game? ...

2008-08-31T22:48:00.000-04:00

ok Janice....want to play the voting record game? Let's play...

Obama says he will be tough on terrorism and his website states “Obama wants to preserve the integrity of our borders. He supports additional personnel, infrastructure and technology on the border and at our ports of entry.” And they he will tighten illegal immigration efforts.

BUT....

He voted against allocating funds for terrorism prevention activities, including rail and transit security. (vote #00185, 2005)

He voted against transferring funds allocated to relief for nations found guilty of human rights violations to additional funding for border security. (vote #0073, 2006)

He voted against providing emergency funding for border security efforts. (vote #0094, 2006)

He voted against increasing the amount of fencing and improving vehicle barriers installed along the southwest border of the United States. (vote #00126, 2006)

He voted to provide funds for health care and educational services to illegal aliens. (vote #00133, 2006)

He voted against legislation to protect United States citizens from election ballots being cast illegally by non-United States citizens and illegal aliens. (vote #00143, 2006)

He voted against supporting the Iraqi Government position of no amnesty for terrorists who have attacked U.S. forces and adopting a similar policy in the United States. (vote #00177, 2006)

He voted against increased funding to construct double-layered fencing and vehicle barriers along the southwest border and to offset such increase by reducing earmarks. (vote #00200, 2006)

He voted against funding for the Secretary of Homeland Security to hire investigators to investigate immigration laws violations. (vote #00201, 2006)

He voted against legislation that would improve Homeland Security by requiring that foreign ports scan all containers shipped to the United States for nuclear and radiological weapons before loading. (vote #00248, 2006)

He voted against prohibiting taxpayer dollars being allocated to entitlements for temporary workers or illegal aliens. (vote #00192, 2007)

He voted against requiring the enforcement of existing border security and immigration laws before amnesty can be granted to illegal aliens. (vote #00202, 2007)

@Eric,Do you agree the debates will be pivotal? I...

2008-08-31T22:42:00.000-04:00

@Eric,
Do you agree the debates will be pivotal? I think McCain may exceed expectations.

@VC,
Agree on Carter, Kennedy was the more liberal, but Clinton only won because he went right of Carter.

JOHN MCCAIN SHOWS US AGAIN THAT HE IS A PATHOLOGIC...

2008-08-31T22:29:00.000-04:00

JOHN MCCAIN SHOWS US AGAIN THAT HE IS A PATHOLOGICAL LIAR!

John McCain just got in front of the cameras on CNN and tried to separate himself from Bushey and had the nerve to say that if he were President during Hurricane Katrina that the situation would have been handled a whole lot differently (and better). Does he think that we're like him and suffering from memory loss? He was having birthday cake on a tarmac with W during Hurricane Katrina. Not only that, he voted against any assistance for Hurricane Katrina victims as indicated below:

McCain Voted Twice Against Establishing A Commission To Study The Response To Hurricane Katrina. [ 9/14/2005, 2/2/2006]
McCain Opposed Granting Financial Relief To Those Affected By Hurricane Katrina. [9/15/2005]
McCain Voted Against Five Months of Medicaid For Hurricane Katrina Victims. [11/3/2005]
McCain Voted Against Emergency Funding Bill, Including $28 Billion for Hurricane Relief. [5/4/2006]

McCain Voted Twice Against Establishing A Commissi...

2008-08-31T22:27:00.000-04:00

McCain Voted Twice Against Establishing A Commission To Study The Response To Hurricane Katrina. [ 9/14/2005, 2/2/2006]
McCain Opposed Granting Financial Relief To Those Affected By Hurricane Katrina. [9/15/2005]
McCain Voted Against Five Months of Medicaid For Hurricane Katrina Victims. [11/3/2005]
McCain Voted Against Emergency Funding Bill, Including $28 Billion for Hurricane Relief. [5/4/2006]
hollieseven posted:

Re: Ready to vet on day 3.Please, for the love of...

2008-08-31T22:09:00.001-04:00

Re: Ready to vet on day 3.

Please, for the love of God, if VC tries to explain this to all us lesser mortals, can somebody copy it and paste it onto a new thread, so we can all enjoy it?

Pretty Please?

Got to love those Dems always looking out for the ...

2008-08-31T22:09:00.000-04:00

Got to love those Dems always looking out for the poor folks.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TrBus8ORR78

It would be interesting to put them on a YouTube v...

2008-08-31T22:02:00.000-04:00

It would be interesting to put them on a YouTube video ranting about how stupid everyone here is when they are three sheets to the wind.

How about a YouTube video of the former DNC chief laughing about Gustav hitting during the Republican convention. That would be interesting. Oh wait...there IS one.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TrBus8ORR78

What is it with Democrats that they think it's so funny and such a great thing that they can further their political agenda regardless of the fact that people are about to die?

Makes me sick.

"John McCain: Ready to Vet on Day Three"This would...

2008-08-31T21:52:00.000-04:00

"John McCain: Ready to Vet on Day Three"

This would be funny if it weren't so fucking pathetic to think that over 40% of the country wants this senile idiot to be president.

Alaska National Guard General: Palin Plays No Role...

2008-08-31T21:41:00.000-04:00

Alaska National Guard General: Palin Plays No Role In National Defense Activities Even When They Involve The Alaska National Guard

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/08/31/alaska-national-guard-gen_n_122860.html

There are a couple of things that we all have to r...

2008-08-31T21:35:00.000-04:00

There are a couple of things that we all have to remember. One is that the polls are not to be relied upon one way or the other. The thing about polls is that we have no idea who is being polled, the questions that are asked and the method of interpreting them. The other thing to remember is that the media is biased towards McCain and never challenges him on answers that he gives no matter how idiotic they are. We will never get an honest, clear and concise truth about what is going on nationwide in the Obama camp.

The other thing to remember is thaTt during the primaries Barack Obama made it quite clear to not rely on the polls. What that tells me is that he knows a great deal that we don't know and that the media will never digest. Remember, he knows the behind-the-scenes working of polling from being directly involved with it during his grassroots days in Chicago. The media will never give him his just due because they are biased and are bought out by the Republicans. That's way so much of what John McCain has done has not been explored or reported by the media. For example, McCriminal's involvement with the KEATING FIVE and his leaving his ailing wife for Cindy McCain! The media also never reported about Cindy McCain's mob-involved father and his stints in the federal pen.

Hmmm, will they just replace her at the convention...

2008-08-31T21:18:00.001-04:00

Hmmm, will they just replace her at the convention when noone is looking? she can go back to AK dude, her hubby.

Ever think her mom-in-laws hatred and comment about her pro-life stance might come from her son getting her pregnant and having to marry her? Just a thought...

Go to the NY Post for the mom-in-law story...

John McCain: Ready to Vet on Day Three

2008-08-31T21:18:00.000-04:00

John McCain: Ready to Vet on Day Three

NO BOON - A TOTAL BUST!By DAVID BAUDER, AP Televis...

2008-08-31T21:12:00.001-04:00

NO BOON - A TOTAL BUST!

By DAVID BAUDER, AP Television Writer Sun Aug 31, 5:36 PM ET

NEW YORK - Television networks rapidly shifted focus and personnel away from the Republican national convention to Gulf Coast communities in the path of Hurricane Gustav on Sunday, wondering how much of their political planning will be for naught.

Anchors Katie Couric, Charles Gibson, Brian Williams, Anderson Cooper and Shepard Smith were all going to the New Orleans area for the storm instead of being with Republicans in St. Paul, Minn.

Whether they will be heading north at all depends on the strength of the storm at Monday's expected landfall. President Bush and Vice President Cheney both canceled plans to be at the convention, where they were to be featured Monday, and the GOP was considering other changes to its program.

"We're going to go with the biggest story of the day tomorrow," said Jay Wallace, a news vice president at Fox News Channel, "and right now the biggest story of the day is the storm."

Along with Smith, Fox was sending Geraldo Rivera and at least a dozen crews to the Gulf. Fox had been anticipating a big week in St. Paul; its ratings topped every broadcast and cable network at the 2004 GOP convention.

It's unclear how viewers will respond this time if the storm eclipses the convention as a story.

Wolf Blitzer was anchoring CNN on Sunday from the nearly empty convention floor, yet he was talking mostly about the hurricane. Sunday on the cable networks would have otherwise been dominated by political stories — as it was the day before the Democratic convention last week in Denver — but much of the political talk this week concerned the storm's impact on Republicans.

"These two stories are obviously interwoven right now," said Sam Feist, CNN's political director.

Even in the few times politics came up, the cable news networks usually kept an angry orange satellite picture of Gustav in the corner. At one point when Karl Rove was discussing Republican vice presidential choice Sarah Palin on Fox News Channel, his picture was crowded into one-fourth of the screen.

A bright red hurricane insignia spun into the picture, complete with whooshing noise, when MSNBC moved between stories.

ABC's Gibson decided to anchor "World News" on Sunday from New Orleans. George Stephanopoulos was staying in St. Paul, but Chris Cuomo of "Good Morning America" will be in the Gulf Monday. Diane Sawyer, who went to the Democratic convention, will be in New York Monday and her future travel plans were uncertain.

CBS pulled two crews from the convention and sent them south. Harry Smith of "The Early Show" planned to join Couric and several correspondents in the Gulf region.

Williams was going to stop to interview GOP candidate John McCain before he arrives in New Orleans, said NBC News President Steve Capus. Anchor emeritus Tom Brokaw will anchor the network's GOP coverage.

Keith Olbermann, who has been sharply critical of the GOP, was pulled from St. Paul to anchor MSNBC's storm coverage from New York. Capus said political considerations had nothing to do with that move. Chris Matthews will anchor from an outdoor studio in St. Paul and David Gregory will report from the convention hall.

With NBC Universal's purchase of The Weather Channel, all of The Weather Channel's meteorologists and correspondents dispatched to cover the storm will appear on NBC and MSNBC, Capus said.

Each of the broadcast networks had set aside one hour in prime-time Monday through Thursday for convention coverage. It's uncertain whether that hour will now be used to report on the hurricane or politics.

"The Republican National Committee has done a good job at being sensitive to not wanting to throw a party at a time the Gulf Coast is under siege," Capus said. "We're trying to approach the convention with the same degree of sensitivity."

Actions by the news organizations could have political repercussions. It could be the worst possible time for Republicans to share the spotlight, reminding viewers of Bush administration failures three years ago with Hurricane Katrina. Yet focusing on a politically unpopular president on the opening night of the convention could have been inconvenient for the Republicans, and now that issue has gone away.

News executives had more immediate concerns.

"My thumbs are numb from the Blackberry exchanges between yesterday and today in terms of shifting our coverage," Fox's Wallace said.

This election should be an easy decision for the v...

2008-08-31T21:12:00.000-04:00

This election should be an easy decision for the voters. Obama is a far superior choice to McCain. It seems really obvious. If this country doesn't vote for the DEMs this time, I'm not sure they ever will.

VC-She is a joke to thinking humans, but the Dobso...

2008-08-31T21:10:00.000-04:00

VC-

She is a joke to thinking humans, but the Dobson folks are either not thinking or not human. Thus we need a smear or two.

Don't worry, they are coming.