Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: The Fall Campaign – Oh, It’s On

someone said surreal ... that's the word! this wh...

2008-09-03T21:44:00.000-04:00

someone said surreal ... that's the word! this whole thing is getting wierder by the minute. Anyone watching palin? do I dare?

filistro - where's your cold cloth!

Yeah, pluck, I get that, but it seems to just boil...

2008-09-03T21:31:00.000-04:00

Yeah, pluck, I get that, but it seems to just boil down to something somebody in her family said. There's no smoking phallus here. THere's no blue dress. There's no _there_ there.

Maybe this will blow up in the next few days. That would be....colorful. But I suspect this will either fizzle out entirely, or maybe even play to McCain's benefit. If it turns out to have no legs, it could actually help inoculate her from future eruptions. We'll see.

Um, it's not the Enquirer's pages that are sticky....

2008-09-03T21:24:00.000-04:00

Um, it's not the Enquirer's pages that are sticky. Anyway, I think they reported the story accurately: Her family is split over the way she handled "Troopergate" and how she handled the succession in Wasilla after she left the mayor's office there.

Some of them are sufficiently pissed off to tell the National Enquirer that she was being boned by her husband's fishing buddy until he found out about it and shoved him out to sea on an ice floe or whatever it is they do there.

America is about to find out that Alaska is nothing but West Virginia with better press.

Meanwhile, since y'all have been crying out for st...

2008-09-03T21:02:00.000-04:00

Meanwhile, since y'all have been crying out for state polls, a new CNN/Time poll puts Obama out front in IA and MN, and even-steven in Ohio.

Just one CNN poll, but for now I'll have to give that more credence than the sticky pages of the Enquirer.

Adam said... There's one thing to realize about...

2008-09-03T20:58:00.000-04:00

Adam said...

There's one thing to realize about the "Palin worst ever" stuff:

He was running behind anyway. Clearly he felt he had to try a bold play that could backfire. Remember how we all said it was a hail mary play? Most of the time, those fall incomplete, gaining no yards.

Yeah but, Jesus... How often does the quarterback get sacked on a Hail Mary play? That's what this is turning into.

DrMatt, I'm with you. I think there's a bit of fee...

2008-09-03T20:57:00.000-04:00

DrMatt, I'm with you. I think there's a bit of feeding-frenzy mentality at work here. Until I see something more substantial than all this, I'm going to default to "bogus story" mode. I think VACentrist is being a little too glum and the Obamaphiles a little too giddy in this particular corner of the blogoverse.

So I guess you're unfucked, VA Conservative. For n...

2008-09-03T20:53:00.000-04:00

So I guess you're unfucked, VA Conservative. For now. All of it does beg the question of why the McCain campaign chose to spread the story by commenting on it.

There's less than meets the eye to the Enquirer st...

2008-09-03T20:51:00.000-04:00

There's less than meets the eye to the Enquirer story. They reported that some people in the extended Palin family are alleging that this affair occurred. It's all tied to Palin's vendetta against the trooper of "Troopergate."

So, the Enquirer isn't saying there was an affair, but rather saying that people are saying it. Wasilla, Alaska is quite the little gossip factory!

Brad -- Noone will take the VP slot even if he dum...

2008-09-03T20:47:00.000-04:00

Brad --

Noone will take the VP slot even if he dumps her.

I dunno... I bet Lieberman would.

The conspiracist in me is churning.

;-)

Harold Meyerson of the WaPo posts:I have combed th...

2008-09-03T20:34:00.000-04:00

Harold Meyerson of the WaPo posts:
I have combed the schedule of events here without finding a single forum, workshop or kaffeeklatsch devoted to what John McCain and the Republican Party propose to do a

Can this be true? What is the man thinking?

"Even Big McCain backers would acknowledge he's pr...

2008-09-03T20:33:00.000-04:00

"Even Big McCain backers would acknowledge he's probably never given a good speech."

This is blatantly false. Politico.com had a story just today documenting McCain's numerous stem winders. The man can give a knockout speech. He's sure to give one tomorrow.

At this point the Republicans are not really havin...

2008-09-03T20:30:00.000-04:00

At this point the Republicans are not really having a convention, just a referendum on whether Sarah Palin is qualified to be VP. McCain will not have a big audience tomorrow and won't impress even if he does. Even Big McCain backers would acknowledge he's probably never given a good speech. So over the next 60 days when people's decisions are cemented, Obama will have had a great convention and McCain will not have really had one at all. Sure he shored up his base, but he needed "ticket-splitters" as Mike Murphy calls them. Not happening. Maybe a few women, but nowhere near the amount they need. Even if the GOP wins the battle with this whole Sarah Palin thing, they'll lose the war. McCain has to convince a lot of somebodies that he should be President that haven't been convinced yet. Just because a chunk of people will feel sorry for and maybe be impressed by Palin tonight, doesn't mean 60 days from McCain won over a large group of voters. The "ticket-splitters" count twice because they vote for yours instead of theirs, the evangelicals that didn't like McCain and would've stayed home instead only count once if you get my math.

I am also behind the curve on the marital affair s...

2008-09-03T20:25:00.001-04:00

I am also behind the curve on the marital affair story, and assume it's bogus until some actual evidence comes out (or she gets dropped from the ticket). This move now looks riskier by the minute.

"The problem here isn't the candidate (Palin's a s...

2008-09-03T20:25:00.000-04:00

"The problem here isn't the candidate (Palin's a solid pick), it's the method of rolling her out to the public"

And here we have our answer to how the Republicans are going to spin this.

1) Palin was a solid pick.

2) Mistakes were made in rolling her out to the public.

3) The evil librul media ganged up on her just because she's woman and a conservative and waah waah waah.

4) If the librul media weren't persecuting us so hard, we'd stick with Palin, who really is a solid pick.

5) But the librul media is persecuting us: so we have to go with someone the media already knows, like Romney, Pawlenty, or Lieberman.

The base will eat it up. I have my doubts about anyone else.

Surreal - ABC is saying McCain is starting stories...

2008-09-03T20:22:00.000-04:00

Surreal - ABC is saying McCain is starting stories just to refute them

http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/2008/09/is-the-mccain-c.html

Thanks, pluckton. I'll check it out.

2008-09-03T20:21:00.002-04:00

Thanks, pluckton. I'll check it out.

Always helpful to newbies:http://voices.washington...

2008-09-03T20:21:00.001-04:00

Always helpful to newbies:

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2008/09/03/mccain_aide_rips_tabloid_repor.html

learn to search news.google.com

Washington Post has it. So does CBS. The NY Times ...

2008-09-03T20:21:00.000-04:00

Washington Post has it. So does CBS. The NY Times won't stain the breakfast cloth until everyone else has.

Guys, on only my second post, I'm once again behin...

2008-09-03T20:15:00.002-04:00

Guys, on only my second post, I'm once again behind the curve. Where the hell is this enquirer stuff coming from? There's nothing about it in MSM, nothing on TNR or NRO, and--near as I can tell--nothing on enquirer's website.

Are y'all just trying to pull my newbie chain here? Where's the beef?

VCon @ 6:13 PM said...This is the world's first do...

2008-09-03T20:15:00.001-04:00

VCon @ 6:13 PM said...

This is the world's first documented case of autoswiftboating.

That sums it up perfectly.

The problem here isn't the candidate (Palin's a solid pick), it's the method of rolling her out to the public. It’s taken over a year for the public to get comfortable with Obama, and 9 weeks probably isn’t enough time to “publically vet” Palin. I think this move demonstrates either (1) a lack of foresight by McCain in thinking the media act this way, or (2) they wanted this media firestorm to change the debate. Either way, it doesn’t look good, and perception is more important that reality.

He is attacking Obama, there was just an ad on CNN...

2008-09-03T20:15:00.000-04:00

He is attacking Obama, there was just an ad on CNN in PA, just watched it. Rang hollow today! Obam - not ready to lead. Well, compared to who John?

Dole on CNN, praying for a change in direction.

The great news is that Obama is on the attack on t...

2008-09-03T20:13:00.000-04:00

The great news is that Obama is on the attack on two fronts.

One directly against McCain on the issues and linking him to Bush.

The second the self immolation of Palin's candidacy, where he just sits back and watches.

McCain is busy defending Palin, but not defending himself nor attacking Obama.

But we know Todd's reporting it? Did he have any c...

2008-09-03T20:12:00.000-04:00

But we know Todd's reporting it? Did he have any comment on it? It just seems really weird--surely she'd be sticking around for McCain's speech tomorrow night.

Filistro-And the football starts over the top of M...

2008-09-03T20:11:00.000-04:00

Filistro-

And the football starts over the top of McCan'ts last big political speech! Go Giants!

Dave-Not that I have seen. but the flight to AK st...

2008-09-03T20:10:00.000-04:00

Dave-

Not that I have seen. but the flight to AK started with Chuck Todd over at MSNBC and he is pretty good.

Please don't resign tonight Sarah, I am having fun!