Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Is Jesse Jackson Jr. Electable?

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Nate, as much as I respect your work, I believe it...

2009-01-05T08:03:00.000-05:00

Nate, as much as I respect your work, I believe it is misleading to be making these assumptions about Jackson Jr. before the potential candidates have even had a chance to make their case to the people of Illinois.

These are the same asumptions that were made about Barack Obama when he entered the race. And we know what we found out.

It is looking like almost anyone nominated to this...

2009-01-05T00:19:00.000-05:00

It is looking like almost anyone nominated to this position will be under a cloud of suspicion in 2010. You really are better off with a Special Election. Even then, it is risky, not just because of a potential GOP win, but it is also possible that a Democratic winner could still have to battle suspicion in 2010 if they were ever even casually connected to Blago, which I imagine almost everybody probably was in some capacity.

Whoever decided to pull the trigger on this FBI sting sure picked one shitty time to do it. Had something been arranged quietly things could have gone better. Imagine thsi scenario: It's November 2008, and Blago announces that he will resign to spend some more time with his family or for health reasons before the New Year, and will be leaving the Senate appointment up to Pat Quinn when Quinn becomes governor. Nothing looks too suspicious, and while the thirst for vengeance is left unsatisfied, there is no mess in the papers and the Senate seat is filled quietly and without any drama. By the time the scandal hits, Blago is safely out of office, the public's in a more forgiving mood, both sides suffers a lot less than they will now.

Whoever pulled the trigger must have known this. Either that person was GOP and wanted one last potshot at the Dems, or they were Dem and too stupid to realize the blowback that would result.

Re Nate's 'no loser' rule - I understood it to app...

2009-01-04T22:46:00.000-05:00

Re Nate's 'no loser' rule - I understood it to apply to *appointments* to higher office, not to *nominations* to run for election, either to the same office that the person ran for earlier but lost, or to another office. History is full of distinguished politicians who did not get elected on their first try.

However, it is fair to say that someone should not attain high office directly, i.e. without election, after the voters have rejected him/her at an election.

Re style: it makes no sense to refer to "Jackson Jr." He is "Jesse Jr", but he comes from a long line of Jacksons, and is not just "Jr" in that line. If he has a brother, that man could also just as accurately be described as Jackson Jr, but not as Jesse Jr.

I think discomfort with this formula is why most of the comments here either spell out his full name or use some variant, like Triple J - because "Jackson Jr" doesn't work. Considering that we all know after the first line of the original post who is being discussed, simply saying "Jackson" is good enough. If one has to mention his father by name, then the formula would be "Jesse Sr", or "the elder Jackson" or some such.

Nate, I think it's worth noting that Herry Reid is...

2009-01-04T17:19:00.000-05:00

Nate, I think it's worth noting that Herry Reid is denying the claims of the "sources" in the Sun-Times article.

GREGORY: All right, but let -- let’s talk about those conversations you had with Governor Blagojevich. Apparently you made it clear that three men were not acceptable to you: Jesse Jackson Jr., Danny Davis, Emil Jones. And yet you just said Jesse Jackson would be fine.

Is that what you said, that these men would not be acceptable?

REID: This is part of Blagojevich’s cloud. He’s making all this up. I had a conversation with him. I don’t remember what was in the conversation, other than the generalities that I just talked about. I didn’t tell him who not to appoint. He’s making all this up to divert attention...

GREGORY: Don’t you think these conversations are on tape...

REID: Of course.

GREGORY: ... for the U.S. attorney’s investigation?

REID: I’m -- I’m sure they are. That’s right. And that’s why what he’s saying -- he’s making it up.

GREGORY: So he’s wrong? Jesse Jackson Jr. was always acceptable to you?

REID: Jesse Jackson Jr. is somebody that I think would be a good senator. And for Blagojevich to start throwing out these names of people who I wanted and didn’t want, he’s making it up.

Connie, it seems to me that Carol Moseley Braun wa...

2009-01-04T15:44:00.000-05:00

Connie, it seems to me that Carol Moseley Braun was rather effective at brushing off the competition back in 1992, taking out a Downstate white male three-term incumbent in the primary and then crushing Rich Williamson in the general to become the first black Democrat ever elected to the US Senate. And all that from the position of Cook County Recorder, which is about as hacktacular a machine position as you can get. But it seems to me the Downstaters rather warmed to her, despite being a card-carrying member of the Chicago machine and taking out their hometown favorite son in the primary.

No black candidate has ever had the opportunity to...

2009-01-04T10:49:00.000-05:00

No black candidate has ever had the opportunity to be elected until there was Barack Obama.

Down state whites would never let it be done. I was happy when Obama made the cut. But I would be surprised (maybe even shocked) if any others could get elected.

Nate, I think you're off base here. Prior to the ...

2009-01-04T10:14:00.000-05:00

Nate, I think you're off base here. Prior to the Blago blowup, did the Republicans really have a chance? And even if they did, was Jesse Jackson Jr. in particular going to get in trouble over it, given that he's been an effective campaigner who has specifically distanced himself from the Chicago Machine?

To me, Reid is further demonstrating his cabbage-like ineptitude and his fundamental moral weakness as a politician and in particular as a floor leader. Its like battered wife syndrome between him and the Republican spouse he thinks he's involuntarily manacled to. Whatever happened to the feisty Gaming Commissioner who stood up to the mob?

Harry Reid made a dumb move here. He let Republica...

2009-01-04T10:10:00.000-05:00

Harry Reid made a dumb move here. He let Republicans filibuster w/o consequences, he is now doing his best to alienate segments of the Democratic base (needlessly.)

I want to see DeMint reading from the telephone book as the GOP argues for more capital gain tax cuts (who's selling assets at a profit anyway?) during a filibuster of a stimulus bill.

I might be able to understand his concerns if it were a legit swing state like PA or VA, but IL? Given the current anti-GOP mood, the GOP will need a dead girl or a live boy to win in IL. Total fail on the part of Obama might change that but two years is an eternity in politics.

The best idea is someone like Burrus, who has no real agenda post-2010. That'll give the real contenders time to get things together.

Or, perhaps, to leave the seat vacant, and agree to a special election in May or June (to allow Obama's programs a few months to sink in and for Blago to be ejected from office.)

Blagojevich will be Blagojewho in 4-6 weeks as Obama introduces legislation, makes an inaugural address, etc. Right now with the economy not collapsing and Obama/new Congress not yet in office, the media is filling up cycles with Blago.

Unless Jarrett or a close FOB (Friend of Barack) gets really tangled up in this, this is simply not going to hurt Obama. Obama is going to have a honeymoon until June.

Looking at the Demographics in Illinios. 25% White...

2009-01-03T21:11:00.000-05:00

Looking at the Demographics in Illinios.
25% White Republicans
25% White Independents
25% White Democrats
15% Other/Asians/Hispanics
10% Blacks.

Any black Democratic candidate from Illinios whether it is
Jesse Jackson Jr,Bobby Rush,Danny Davis,Dan Seals or Carol Mosely Braun will get 90% of the Black vote and 70% of the Hispanic/Asian vote. They will get 80% of the White Democratic vote. and 10% of the White Republican vote.

The Black Democratic Nominee for the 2010 IL US Senate Race will start out with 41% of the popular vote.

The White Republican Nominee for the 2010 IL US Senate Race will start out with 34% of the popular vote.

That leaves us White Independents- The Black Democratic nominee will have to get at least 40% of the White Independent vote to win in the general election.

I don't expect Jacksonjr,Rush,or Davis to get over 40% of the White Independent votes.

The most electable black candidate for statewide office in IL is Dan Seals- the 2006/2008 Democratic Nominee for IL-10CD or Joyce Washington the former Democratic candidate for LT Governor in 2002 and US Senate in 2004- She is a former Nurse and Health Care professional and State Senator James Clayborne- from Saint Louis IL- Downstate.

White Democrats like Madigan,Hynes,Gianolous,Schakowsky,and Duckworth will get 90% Black vote,70% of the Hispanic/Asian vote, 90% of the White Democratic Vote, 10% of the White Republican vote and 50% of the White Independent votes.

The Democratic Nominee whether it is Madigan,Hynes,Gianollous,Schakowsky,or Duckworth will defeat the Republican Nominee- Kirk or Roskam by a 55-45 percent margin.

It's funny how white folks never get tired of hear...

2009-01-03T20:41:00.000-05:00

It's funny how white folks never get tired of hearing this record.

He's black. White people won't vote for him. But there's no racism here.

Where do I go to sign up to join another race?

What would have happened if Valerie Jarrett or Dan...

2009-01-03T19:47:00.000-05:00

What would have happened if Valerie Jarrett or Danny Davis were also in the poll?

Believe me, any Democrat could beat the two Republ...

2009-01-03T19:18:00.000-05:00

Believe me, any Democrat could beat the two Republican frontrunners Kirk and Roskam right now and unless Obama is an abject failure that'll still be the case in two years.

And take any unsourced rumors, and that's all this is, from either Chicago major daily these days with a grain of salt.

new MN senate thread upnow...WV - UNKLESwill Norm ...

2009-01-03T19:00:00.000-05:00

new MN senate thread upnow...

WV - UNKLES

will Norm finally say 'unkles' ???

Obama was supposedly unelectable in 2004 and 2008....

2009-01-03T18:53:00.000-05:00

Obama was supposedly unelectable in 2004 and 2008.
Reid will lose his seat in 2010.

Franken +223

2009-01-03T18:49:00.000-05:00

Franken +223

Oh yeah, and JJJ is electable. Fact is, if Preside...

2009-01-03T18:27:00.000-05:00

Oh yeah, and JJJ is electable. Fact is, if President Obama likes you, you're pretty much in.

Harry the Mormon is a bundle of joy, isn't he?Seri...

2009-01-03T18:20:00.000-05:00

Harry the Mormon is a bundle of joy, isn't he?

Seriously, can we have Russ Feingold as majority leader now? PLEEEEESE!!!

Pre-Blago, I was for either JJJ or Lisa Madigan being appointed to Obama's seat. Then I was for Jan Schakowsky being appointed, providing she retires in 2016 and Michelle Obama runs for the senate. The whole situation is just a mess right now. Blagojevich is a GIANT pain in the arse and I don't entirely trust Patrick Fitzgerald.

Clearly Lisa Madigan is the hottest prospect in Illinois politics now that Obama has reached the top. Ideally, Michelle Obama pulls a Hillary becomes senator in 8 years and Lisa Madigan eventually wins Dick Durbin's vacated seat down the road. That's the best scenario I can come up with.

Thanks for the link, Nate. Jesse Jackson, Jr. - IF...

2009-01-03T18:17:00.000-05:00

Thanks for the link, Nate.

Jesse Jackson, Jr. - IF he couldn't win after doing the retail politicking that he and his wife would have to do - and he lost in a Democratic Primary in 2010 - ok, so be it.

Illinois is the ONLY STATE to send TWO Black Senators to the Senate.

BOTH of them from Chicago.

BOTH of them not known outside of Chicago's South Side before they ran.

JJJ has been working coalitions and building bridges since the moment he entered Congress. He's made some choices that had folks question him; taking chances on unknown politicians that weren't typical. Some won. Some lost.

If you look at his RECORD - just on paper: a working man or woman...a working family farmer, would have to say that Jackson was on THEIR side.

Plus, they now know that he was snitching on Blago.

I believe he should have the chance. He'd have to get out of the 2010 Democratic Primary. But, if he won that, then the rest of the Pary apparatus should be enough to help him over the hump.

And, I have serious issues with Reid believing that he knows JACK about Illinois politics. I do know that any Hand-picked Negro, like Dan Seals, will be Dead.on.arrival.

Period.

I am absolutely NO FAN of Harry Reid. I am one in...

2009-01-03T17:38:00.000-05:00

I am absolutely NO FAN of Harry Reid. I am one in a long list of Democrats that would like to see him replaced.

That said, Nate has just shown how Harry Reid could very legitimately believe Jackson would face a tough state wide election. In this and this alone, I agree with Harry. He did the exactly right thing in suggesting Blaggo not appoint Jackson.

Just because Harry told the truth about the vulnerability of a black candidate does not make him a racist, it makes him a realist. There are times to call the race card, this is not one of them.

Reid thought there were better candidates before Jackson Jr was revealed as "candidate 5", backed by those willing to pay 1.5 million for Obama's Senate seat.

Reid has been proven absolutely right. Jaakson Jr was a flawed candidate and is a flawed candidate. I'm glad Reid didn't let the thought of being wrongly accused of racism stop him from making the right call.

Nate based on your "No Loser Rule" Barack Obama sh...

2009-01-03T17:18:00.000-05:00

Nate based on your "No Loser Rule" Barack Obama shouldn't have been nominated for the senate in 2004 because he lost to Bobby Rush in 2000. I think there's a big difference appointing someone who lost for lower office to a higher office.

Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Is Jesse Jackson Jr. Electable?

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Nate, as much as I respect your work, I believe it...

It is looking like almost anyone nominated to this...

Re Nate's 'no loser' rule - I understood it to app...

Nate, I think it's worth noting that Herry Reid is...

Connie, it seems to me that Carol Moseley Braun wa...

No black candidate has ever had the opportunity to...

Nate, I think you're off base here. Prior to the ...

Harry Reid made a dumb move here. He let Republica...

Looking at the Demographics in Illinios. 25% White...

It's funny how white folks never get tired of hear...

What would have happened if Valerie Jarrett or Dan...

Believe me, any Democrat could beat the two Republ...

new MN senate thread upnow...WV - UNKLESwill Norm ...

Obama was supposedly unelectable in 2004 and 2008....

Franken +223

Oh yeah, and JJJ is electable. Fact is, if Preside...

Harry the Mormon is a bundle of joy, isn't he?Seri...

Thanks for the link, Nate. Jesse Jackson, Jr. - IF...

I am absolutely NO FAN of Harry Reid. I am one in...

Nate based on your "No Loser Rule" Barack Obama sh...

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