Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Today's Polls, 7/13

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2009-10-08T07:32:11.632-04:00

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2009-09-11T02:11:08.025-04:00

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2009-03-11T22:00:00.001-04:00

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2009-03-11T22:00:00.000-04:00

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2009-02-14T02:15:00.000-05:00

Does Nate's model take the Bradley effect into acc...

2008-07-14T17:29:00.000-04:00

Does Nate's model take the Bradley effect into account?

Although Obama has not gone as far as the satirica...

2008-07-14T11:22:00.000-04:00

Although Obama has not gone as far as the satirical Air Conditioning comment, check out his promise on Vehicle and gas mileage. You will no longer be able to buy the vehicle of choice, because stringent gas mileage requirements will eliminate whole classes of passenger vehicles that cannot meet the rigorous gas mileage requirements. Good bye to our Trucks and SUV's altogether. Although I think it unwise to buy one, (I drive a small Chevy for gas mileage, but my wife loves her Jeep Grand Cherokee), I dont think the government should be legislating them away. Hows that for a troll?

"...some Democrats just won't be able to vote for ...

2008-07-14T11:11:00.000-04:00

"...some Democrats just won't be able to vote for a black man in good conscience once they get inside that voting booth."

What is "good" about that? Maybe what you meant was pointing out that when decision time comes they will revert to prejudice but still...nothing good about that. But Obama surely knew this so hopefully he has a contingency plan.

There are comments about Obama/McCain vs. Generic ...

2008-07-14T10:48:00.000-04:00

There are comments about Obama/McCain vs. Generic Dem/Generic Republican. Of course the numbers will not track well there and Obama will be way behind the Generic numbers. Obama is a Generic Dem in most of his views, and for most of his carreer (other than the 2007 numbers) McCain has been anything but a Generic Republican. I note Obama's commercials talk about McCain voting record in that one year, with Iraq so hot, but people see through this. They read the small type.

Look at the favorability numbers. The longer this has gone on those numbers have grown tighter as well. Now in most polls McCain and Obama are dead heated, in Rasmussen McCain is 4 points ahead of Obama in favorability.

The recent Newsweek Poll has Bush at a -35 spread on favorability, and McCain at a +23, with Obama at +24. Obama's branding of McCain as another Bush is clearly missing the mark. Its almost a backlash effect, everytime it is spouted people start favoring McCain more.

Nate,You have proven very competent in assembling ...

2008-07-14T09:50:00.000-04:00

Nate,

You have proven very competent in assembling an accurate and defensible way of tracking the polls using sound statistical methodology.

Now, do us a favor by developing another model that will show exactly how Obama's radical and incoherent policies are going to F this country beyond repair and turn us into a third world backwater.

Adam, you are right that the Bradley Effect has ne...

2008-07-14T08:10:00.000-04:00

Adam, you are right that the Bradley Effect has never been tested in a nationwide race, and that it may show up in some states more than others. However it was not a factor in statewide races in '06 in TN, OH, and PA.

All three states had polls that were just about spot on, and only TN had a move to the white guy at the end. What is interesting (and sad) is that I wouldn't attribute that move to the "undecided effect," I'd attribute it to more overt racism - the effective "call me Harold" playboy bunny ad. What's interesting is that the effect of this ad was seen in polls before the election. People in TN did not hide their racism. It was only a few percent of Tennesseans, but it was enough to give Corker the election.

So racism may yet come into play but if so, perhaps it will show up in the final polls as it did in '06.

I apologize for posting my comment twice. How do ...

2008-07-14T07:38:00.000-04:00

I apologize for posting my comment twice. How do I remove one of them?

Obviously what I spoke of in my 3:34 post applies ...

2008-07-14T06:51:00.000-04:00

Obviously what I spoke of in my 3:34 post applies to areas of the country outside of Appalachian states like WV and KY. I'm not sure what is causing the seeming unease with Obama in those states. I tend to agree with thisniss. Residents of areas hit hard by tough economic times don't have the luxury of getting worked up about abstract themes of "hope" and "change".

I'm not sure race had a lot to do with Obama's res...

2008-07-14T06:29:00.000-04:00

I'm not sure race had a lot to do with Obama's results in WV/KY. I grew up in KY (mostly) and a lot of my family still lives there. My most extreme, pronounced, openly racist relatives were the Obama supporters in the primary - and therefore in the minority. The "moderates" were the Clinton supporters. Those are the folks who are more likely to vote Dem under normal circumstances. I think they voted for Clinton in overwhelming numbers for a few reasons, none of them particularly racially based: 1) they saw Clinton as the "safer" choice - more likely to win in the general 2) they wanted to make their votes "count," especially as members of a voting public whose primaries are typically "meaningless" - the opportunity to throw the primary toward Clinton in larger-than-expected numbers meant getting more-than-usual attention for their primaries 3) the state dems, on every level, still feel a great deal of loyalty to Bill Clinton, the last real big Democratic success story in places that have grown increasingly conservative and poorer.

This is my gut-based analysis, as no one has really performed extensive qualitative analysis of the primary voting in these states. But I do know that these were the themes the Clinton campaign was stressing, as well as what would and did resonate amongst the folks I still know in the region. I also know that the Obama campaign did not make the kind of play for these areas that he did elsewhere, and that having conceded KY & WV would allow Clinton more room to drive up the margins.

Travis,http://uselectionatlas.org/Scroll down to t...

2008-07-14T04:41:00.000-04:00

Travis,

http://uselectionatlas.org/

Scroll down to the bottom of the page. You'll find the polling results for the senate and governor's races. Then all you need to do is click on the maps to compare to the actual vote totals.

Sarasotajoe,Ford's problem in Tennessee wasn't the...

2008-07-14T04:34:00.000-04:00

Sarasotajoe,

Ford's problem in Tennessee wasn't the Bradley Effect, but it was rather what others coined above as the "Undecided Effect". The new, exotic candidate is going to have a tough time winning the last batch of undecideds in jurisdictions that aren't already inclined to vote for a "new" type of candidate. That's what we saw in TN in 2006 and in PA,OH,WV,KY in the Dem primaries this year.

While these contests that we're talking about may not have shown an obvious manifestation of the "Bradley Effect" - I think it's too early to say that the phenomenon is dead. It's simply never been tested on a national level. Everyone agrees that there are pockets of racism in this country. Whether or not this Bradley Effect is going to derail Obama is going to depend on the strength and, just as importantly, the geography of where this may take place.

It's interesting to note polling results and actual vote totals. It seems that Obama is overperforming what we would expect from a generic Democrat in polling of ND and MT, and underperforming in states like MI (and probably Ohio as well if you toss out the outlier PPP poll - PPP has a less than stellar reputation and their call for Obama to win the PA primary was ridiculous).

But why these results? Why does Obama seem to do well in high AA environments (35 % or more of the Dem primary electorate)? Why does Obama also seem to do very well in unusually low AA-environments (polling for ND, MT)? And finally why does Obama seem to do not so well in average-AA environments(PA, MI, OH)?

The first question has an easy answer. We'll all agree that black voters are bloc-voting for Obama. We're talking 90-percent or higher of the black vote in just about every state after the SC primary. Obviously this was Obama's ace in the hole in southern primary states.

The answer to the second and third questions seem less obvious. Obama seems to be polling quite well in ND and MT - states where George Bush won by 20 points or more. I think that whatever racial animosity exists - it tends to work against Obama more in states with medium AA populations. People like the idea of voting for the black guy because of white guilt - unless they worry about high crime rates and 6 o’clock news reports of blacks that have migrated from inner cities getting arrested in their own neighborhoods. I’m going to go out on a limb and say that the types of drug raids that involve lots of teenage blacks that you see all the time across declining medium-sized industrial cities in the Northeast and Midwest aren’t so common in lilly-white MT.

That’s my candid assessment. Frankly I’m sick of walking on egg shells and being PC about how we discuss race in this country. If we’re so advanced that an African-American has a better than 50/50 shot at the presidency then we ought not be afraid to say what we genuinely think. I hate racism. I hate the fact that everyone needs to tiptoe when talking about race matters almost as much.

I no longer have the spreadsheets from 2006, but I...

2008-07-14T04:23:00.000-04:00

I no longer have the spreadsheets from 2006, but I'm sure one of my fellow dorks does and can answer this question:

How did Blackwell (OH Gov race), Swann (PA gov race), Steele (MD Senate race), and Ford (TN Senate race) perform compared to their polling numbers?

IIRC, the only result that didn't closely match polling was the Maryland Senate race.

Nate, please delete my obvious troll posts or crea...

2008-07-14T01:21:00.000-04:00

Nate, please delete my obvious troll posts or create some sort of a system to hide rate abusive comments. If possible, please ban posts from IPs that are clearly trolling, like mine.

" I do not believe we have seen the last of the...

2008-07-14T00:52:00.000-04:00

" I do not believe we have seen the last of the Bradley effect. The reason is supposedly wasn't seen in the Democratic primaries is because Democrats pride themselves in being "racially tolerant". Even so, look at New Hampshire. Obama was up by as much as 10 or 12 points the day before the primary, and, as we all know, lost to HIllary. Don't expect independents to care about their "racially tolerant" image. There will be a Bradley effect."

Yeah, but that´s because primary polling is always volatile and this one especially, because it was so hard fought and really close.
But do you dare to say that South Carolina polls overstated Obamas support there? Or, to cite a white state, Wisconsin polls?
Just pollster error, nothing more.

More than 160 posts on a poll topic without interesting polls ... I remember the first days of this blog. We had then 5 comments per post or so, 15 maybe on especially important or interesting ones...

Jack-be-nimble:Be careful. Some will read your sat...

2008-07-14T00:50:00.000-04:00

Jack-be-nimble:

Be careful. Some will read your satire and think you are being serious.

sshhhh

2008-07-14T00:19:00.001-04:00

sshhhh

I do not believe we have seen the last of the Brad...

2008-07-14T00:19:00.000-04:00

I do not believe we have seen the last of the Bradley effect. The reason is supposedly wasn't seen in the Democratic primaries is because Democrats pride themselves in being "racially tolerant". Even so, look at New Hampshire. Obama was up by as much as 10 or 12 points the day before the primary, and, as we all know, lost to HIllary. Don't expect independents to care about their "racially tolerant" image. There will be a Bradley effect.

Obama said that all thermostats must be set to 80 ...

2008-07-14T00:16:00.000-04:00

Obama said that all thermostats must be set to 80 in the summer. Air conditioning is a wastefull practice. If you are over 90 years old, you can apply for an exemption from this. It will be quickly processed by the US Postal Service. For the winter, you must set the max temperature to 65 and allow it to go to 50 at night. Any violators, acording to Obama will have to go to jail. Rewards of extra heating allowances(also know as heat coupons) will be given to heroes who turn their families and neighbors in for violation. This will solve the energy crisis. It is known as the Obama Strain.

Adam said "a similar thing happened to Harold Ford...

2008-07-13T23:47:00.000-04:00

Adam said "a similar thing happened to Harold Ford in Tennessee in 2006. He was ahead in some of the surveys in late autumn, but never above 46 or 47 and of course, he ultimately lost."

Actually the polls tightened at the end (due to that outrageous playboy bunny ad), and the race was a tossup in my spreadsheet. Exit polls showed white voters chose Ford in the same proportion as they did in the final polls.

Other 2006 biracial contests were accurately predicted by polls. Check out this interesting article from the Pew Research Center indicating that the Bradley Effect may have died by 2006 and that there are several other indications that the US is ready for a black president.

whoops, of course.

2008-07-13T23:38:00.000-04:00

whoops, of course.