Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Senate Rankings: October 2009 Quick-and-Dirty Edit...

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2010-03-17T10:34:00.992-04:00

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klip izle | malatya park | youtube | video izle

2010-03-10T07:26:08.457-05:00

klip izle | malatya park | youtube | video izle

электронная почта без регистрации

2010-03-02T14:13:45.933-05:00

электронная почта без регистрации

@Jessie I think Jessie is right. The amount of e...

2009-12-29T17:38:55.249-05:00

@Jessie

I think Jessie is right. The amount of energy devoted to 2010 senate races seems inversely related to the Democrats' prospects. There hasn't been a serious look since, what, August?

The amount of energy Nate devotes to polls is inve...

2009-12-16T15:38:34.970-05:00

The amount of energy Nate devotes to polls is inversly related to how well the Demoncats prospects are. He's terrified of what he'll find once he opens the hood.

Nate - Please, when you do your next update on the...

2009-12-12T15:12:21.449-05:00

Nate - Please, when you do your next update on the Senate, 2010 elections, please allocate some decent time to do some data collection and analysis. Not a 'one off'.

Sestak is the candidate that will be able to get t...

2009-11-08T17:01:24.736-05:00

Sestak is the candidate that will be able to get the Democrats to the polls in November in PA. If Specter wins the primary, the young, progressive Democrats will stay home in November.

I hear from my GOP friends that if Jeb Bush endors...

2009-11-04T02:21:14.942-05:00

I hear from my GOP friends that if Jeb Bush endorses Rubio (he endorsed McCollum for Gov today) before the end of the year, that Crist will take that as an excuse to pull an Arlen Spector and switch parties. He will claim that moderates have been driven out of the party and he will promise to be a blue dog like Bill Nelson. He would use his name recognition and blow Meek out of the water.

As a person who grew up in St, Pete, I can believe it. Charlie always follows polls and has no true convictions of his own.

Jeb Bush is the key to the whole thing.

DCM - You need to go re-read the AP's post-electio...

2009-11-01T22:50:36.855-05:00

DCM - You need to go re-read the AP's post-election analysis in order to understand the 2008 election results.

CONGRESS heck, conditions were supposed to be rip...

2009-11-01T22:18:17.184-05:00

CONGRESS

heck, conditions were supposed to be ripe for the GOP in OH & especially MI last November, remember ?

and then there was RED IN & we can't forget PA was supposed to vote GOP...

2010 will be OK for the GOP since it has strong historical tailwinds, but 2012 could then be another BLUE blowout

of course, we are still only 1 year removed from the last election when all conventional wisdom was turned upside down by the margin of victory for BHO & the DEMs...

way too early

Dopper - yes, you are correct, you didn't say 52-5...

2009-11-01T21:50:25.560-05:00

Dopper - yes, you are correct, you didn't say 52-54 liberals, but you know a lot of the folks on here were thinking that.

Your analysis of 1994 is pretty good; I would have been more accurate in saying those districts were purple then, but are solidly red now.

The Dems do have a 74 seat majority today; losing 54 blue dogs (wont happen, but we're speaking hypothetically) would switch that majority to 34 in the GOP's favor.

I am in Ohio; the GOP was in such disarray here in 2006 it began a shift to the Dems. But it's not a permanent shift. Strickland will probably lose the Governor's job to Kasich next year, and with such a strong name at the top of the ticket -- and a strong fiscal conservative as well -- that'll carry on down the line. (Which is why I am not in the slightest sold on Voinovich's Senate seat going blue in 2010 either.) I'd also look hard at Michigan in 2010 as possibly a sign of things to come across the country: it's only a matter of time before enough of the good people in the state realize that Democrat economics don't work. The union pull in the state is becoming more and more irrelevant as more and more union jobs vanish...

It's all speculation at this point though; until the primaries begin to shake things out (starting with people actually declaring for races in many instances!) many races are nigh-in impossible to predict.

@ congressworksforus I think we are in the same "z...

2009-11-01T20:24:59.270-05:00

@ congressworksforus I think we are in the same "zone" even if we disagree on the outcome. But I have a few quibbles.

I never said that the Senate at 52-54 Dems equals 52-54 liberals. One think I used to point out to my "club for growth" friends was even at the GOP's maximum majority of 55 Senators, they only had this maximum because of 6 moderates (Snowe, Collins, Chaffee, Spector, Gordon Smith, and to some extent Voinovich). They never had a CONSERVATIVE majority or a pro-life majority either for that matter (even throwing in some pro-life Dems)when you added up everyone's stances. But operational majorities are what count, whose caucus is in charge.

Now the GOP taking all the "purple districts" isn't fully accurate (I'm assuming you mean in the House). The GOP won lots of seats in the South East in a regional realignment (KT south to Florida), similar to the Dems North East (Pennsylvania - New England) realignment we saw in 2006 & 2008. There just isn't an equivalent bunch of seats in an area of the country undergoing a regional shift. Most of the seats outside of the South East the GOP won in 1994 was due to masterful gerrymandering that has mostly run it's course (Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania) as the the Blue or Purple nature of the states have overwhelmed the gerrymandering. The GOP ate the Bo Weevils Dems, just as the Dems ate the Rockefeller Repubs. Dems have a 74 seat majority there are 54 Blue Dogs, even if they took red seats like you said in the house, that's not enough. The GOP will not win +11 Senate races to gain control.

The GOP real issue is actually California after 2010, especially since Jerry Brown is the clear cut leader there. If you want to go over to swingstateproject.com you can see all sort of COMPACT gerrymandering jobs for California that don't violate the voting rights act and give the Dems anywhere from 40-45 seats (up from 34 now). A tough gerrymandering of California (the Dems in Sacramento hate the GOP budget obstructionist reps there and want to burn them) easily equals 6-9 more Dem pick ups, bigger than the 4 seat Texas will pick up. Of Texas' 4 seat at least 2 will have to be majority Latino (Houston 1.5 million Latinos don't have a majority rep) especially with an Obama controlled justice department. Texas already burned most of it's thunder in it's mid decade redistricting, because of their slower population growth you just can't gerrymander much more out of the rural parts of the states. BTW I could eliminate every Republican except maybe one from NY with a crayon in the dark (Peter King welcome to Queens...). Also Pennsylvania, Mich, Ohio should have more purple maps, they all have Dem majorities on red maps.

Happy GOPer: Why do you bitch and moan when PeteKe...

2009-11-01T18:44:13.458-05:00

Happy GOPer: Why do you bitch and moan when PeteKent (or I, or anyone else) talks about "the future".

Like Pragmatus, I'm happy to read posts where people demonstrate actual insight rather than wishful speculation. But I won't bother reading predictions which are not supported by analysis. While anyone can make a good prediction and still be wrong, good analysis is generally demonstrated by being right more often than not. And PeteKent has so rarely been right that I don't bother reading his posts anymore. Really, anyone who is wrong so often should engage in a little more analysis and caution to up his batting average.

Hope and change is coming all right - but it's not going to be what Obama and Co. have envisioned.

This is an example of just what I'm talking about. Based on what?

On two governors' races? If two Republicans were in power in the worst economic crisis in 80 years, I'd guess they or their parties would be facing tough reelects too.

Based on NY-23? It can be spun both ways, with Republicans expected to win in one of the few remaining Republican districts in the Northeast.

A lot is going to happen between now and next November. We could still be in awful economic times, or jobs could be on the upswing, or anything in between, or there could be a major international crisis. I think predicting what's going to happen in 2010, much less 2012, is a foolish, speculative exercise.

Sure, let's talk about the future. But let's do so keeping in mind our very limited ability to do so with any confidence. Otherwise, we're just spouting ideological affinities, which we can do far more directly and with far less chance of being wrong about other stuff.

whoops meant supposed to "help" the party

2009-11-01T18:11:56.513-05:00

whoops meant supposed to "help" the party

"This may be a sign that the Republican Party is h...

2009-11-01T18:10:39.158-05:00

"This may be a sign that the Republican Party is healings its cleavages and sees its advantage in embracing conservatism."

To me it seems delusional to look at the NY-23 race that way. The GOP candidate actually dropped out, but that's somehow supposed to the party?

Happy GOPer… Why so touchy? If the GOP sun is r...

2009-11-01T17:29:16.875-05:00

Happy GOPer…

Why so touchy? If the GOP sun is rising over America I would think you’d be pleased, not crabby.

The change that is coming will be delivered by the Club for Growth, which has inserted a wedge into the GOP which, if Hoffman wins in New York, will have been driven so deep the only possible outcome is a complete split in the right wing—the crazies in the GOP versus the super-crazies of the CFG. Add to that Sarah Palin and Michelle Bachmann and Rush Limbaugh all running around liked crazed wolverines and you’ll get change up the ying-yang.

If you bothered to read my comments over the past ...

2009-11-01T17:07:33.271-05:00

If you bothered to read my comments over the past few days you would have known that I think the Club for Growth is more of a hindrance than a help. I actually would have supported Scozzafava initially because I think supporting moderate candidates in marginal areas is a good way to build a majority.

That said, the fact that Hoffman is going to win in a district that voted for Obama, coupled with a complete sweep where Democrats are losing 3 major offices in Virginia and possible control of the state senate, and the fact that a Republican is at the very least still in the game in New Jersey ought to make you and your friends a little less smug these days.

Hope and change is coming all right - but it's not going to be what Obama and Co. have envisioned.

Happy GOPer… Well, I’m not sure I would characte...

2009-11-01T17:01:48.114-05:00

Happy GOPer…

Well, I’m not sure I would characterize my comments as “bitching and moaning”, but anyone here who declares ad nauseam nothing but rosy outcomes for his political party, without data to back it up or even cogent reasons for thinking the way he does, is IMO fair game for criticism.

In Pete Kent’s case doubly so, because all he has ever done is predict great upsets and triumphs for the GOP at the polls, scenarios he pulls completely out of the air, yet once the pudding is served all he has ever been is wrong.

Did you donate to Club for Growth today? You know even when it’s a Sunday you can still send them money through their website. The best dollar that can be spent for America today is money that goes to CFG or Sarah Palin’s PAC.

Pragmatus, Why do you bitch and moan when PeteKen...

2009-11-01T16:47:22.793-05:00

Pragmatus,

Why do you bitch and moan when PeteKent (or I, or anyone else) talks about "the future".

Isn't this very thread SUPPOSED to be about the future. I mean, look, if this were a thread discussing policy, ie. health care, how well (or not) the stimulus has worked I could see your point.

I'm pretty sure that on a forward-looking thread, one that forecasts the outcome of senate elections ONE YEAR FROM now - the entire point is to comment about what might transpire.

OBSESSED geez, don't you think it is way too earl...

2009-11-01T16:14:26.123-05:00

OBSESSED

geez, don't you think it is way too early for Nate to start throwing out such projections ?

I mean, not only is there a lack of data for him to crunch BUT at this point about all we have is speculation

too many variables & scenarios

once the 2010 primary season is underway & the actual candidates make themselves known, then Nate will certainly start spewing out those sorts of projections

but then the 2010 Primary dates are spread out all over the place...

some states are in early May, others not until mid-September. FL is late August - so the actual general campaign season here will be a short 10 weeks...

IF Crist falls to Rubio in a nasty GOP primary here in FL, then maybe the DEM will steal this seat [but it is way too early for putting projections on that IF/OR scenario imho

the polling out this week still has Crist with 2x the support as Rubio - BUT Crist is fading & a closed primary in AUGUST of all months could help the hard-core CONs

Crist better go for a HUGE lead with absentee & early voters in August, cuz I bet he will not pull the majority of primary day polling site GOP[CON] votes

however, I do enjoy Nate's generalized speculation this far out...

HEY NATE! Just a tiny little enhancement request ...

2009-11-01T15:56:01.183-05:00

HEY NATE!

Just a tiny little enhancement request on the senate ratings. Is there a way that you could devise a predictive metric which would chew up all the data and spit out a likely number for the total composition of the senate? for example 58 dem, 2 ind, 40 repub.

The NY Congressional Race, along with NY Gov and V...

2009-11-01T15:52:12.177-05:00

The NY Congressional Race, along with NY Gov and VA Gov races will represent a triumph for small government Republicans.

Too bad there are no more Republicans in the NY race.

When was the last time a GOP White House or Congress showed anything resembling small government?

Besides, small is a fuzzy term. corporations need regulations, somebody has to promote the US interest overseas, etc. If the states did it, it would be chaos. It is the responsibility of the federal government to promote the general welfare. Granted, it could definitely stand to lose weight, but issues like health care, the economy and environment are in the province of the feds.

If the makeup of the US government was the same today as it was 100 years ago, we would be a third world nation gagging on the most polluted air and water in the world working as serfs for our corporate masters.

The Teabaggers can support Christine O'Donnell in ...

2009-11-01T15:40:10.112-05:00

The Teabaggers can support Christine O'Donnell in DE against Mike Castle in the GOP primary. An O'Donnell win in the GOP primary -means a clear victory for Beau-D who is probally interviewing his father's former Staff members.
MO is a DEM gain due to strong DEM candidate vs Weak GOP candidate. Regarding OH- Portman is not a nut job like Blackwell or unpopular like Taft- but neither was DeWine who lost to Brown by a double digit margin. Portman is closely tied to Bush. In NH- Ayotte-R loses in the GOP primary to a wingnut allowing Hodes to win. In IL- If the establishment candidates win- Giannoulias vs Kirk- It will be a hard fought race but Giannoulias will win due to demographics of the state. The FL race will depend on the GOP primary- if Christ wins- he wins the General. if Rubio wins- Meeks has a decent shot at winning the FL US Senate Race. Regarding the vulnerable DEM incumbents- Reid-NV and Lincoln-AR have weak GOP oppositions- They will get re-elected. Dodd-CT is personally unpopular for this first time in his 30 year career and has a top tier GOP opponent- but state is blue and Dodd-CT just needs to turn out his base. Bennett-CO is unknown- will need support from DSCC.

NY-23… Apparently Dede Scozzafava has withdrawn ...

2009-11-01T15:23:23.839-05:00

NY-23…

Apparently Dede Scozzafava has withdrawn from the race for good and endorsed the Democrat Bill Owens.

Seems safe to say there is very bad blood between the GOP and the CFG nutters, so any prognostication of the GOP rising phoenix-like in 2010 will need to take this new tussle into account to be sensible.

DCM - Yes, currently there's no good opponent for ...

2009-11-01T15:03:20.562-05:00

DCM - Yes, currently there's no good opponent for Reid. But he has very high unfavorables (he's never been that popular, but it hasn't stopped him yet).

If the Republicans really wanted to make Nevada interesting, they should find a likeable hispanic. Now that would require a lot of popcorn!