Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Road to 270: Idaho

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2009-03-12T04:38:00.001-04:00

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2009-03-12T04:38:00.000-04:00

Boise is the third-largest city in the Pacific Nor...

2008-10-23T02:03:00.000-04:00

Boise is the third-largest city in the Pacific Northwest. Only Seattle and Portland are bigger.

Gore and Kerry won only one county in Idaho (Blaine County both times, where the Sun Valley resort is located; it's become a solidly liberal enclave over the past 10 years). I think Obama has a decent shot at winning seven or eight counties here. Boise is in Ada County, and I think Ada is in play. Obama should win Boise city proper and he has a realistic shot at carrying the county.

He won't win the state, but he'll be considerably better than what we've seen recently.

The Idaho Statesman (based in Boise) is quite libe...

2008-10-22T16:24:00.000-04:00

The Idaho Statesman (based in Boise) is quite liberal. So are many Boise residents. This are has seen a huge population growth because of the influx, over the past decade, of people from California and elsewhere. I moved here from CA four years ago, so did many of my neighbours.

Can't say that about the rest of the state.

The person who said Idahoans are by and large practical folks are right. Northern Idaho is entrenched NRA territory, and in the more populated south and south-east, the Mormons are a strong presence. These two groups will almost always vote Republican.

Someone asked if Boise is a blue dot in a sea of r...

2008-10-22T11:46:00.000-04:00

Someone asked if Boise is a blue dot in a sea of red, and that's pretty accurate. The city north of the river went 60 percent for Kerry in 2004 and the rest of town on the south side is more purple but has voted heavily for a Democratic Mayor and State Legislators. The 'burbs to the west which is the rest of the larger metro area are deep, deep red.

The Governor Had No Clothes!Despite purchase of a ...

2008-10-22T11:41:00.000-04:00

The Governor Had No Clothes!

Despite purchase of a $150,000 wardrobe, her gibberish pronouncements still let her stand naked before the world - which is exactly how male Republican voters tend to imagine her.

Re: Electoral College posts.I am not at all confi...

2008-10-22T10:55:00.000-04:00

Re: Electoral College posts.

I am not at all confident that doing away with the college is a good idea. Yes, it would be more democratic, but I am not sure it would make for better government.

As it is now we, as a people, pay attention to the fly over states. I think that matters in keeping us a united state. (Singular intended with state used in the sense of nation).

Walt Minnick is a strong candidate in a close race...

2008-10-22T10:40:00.000-04:00

Walt Minnick is a strong candidate in a close race. It would great to steal a seat in such a red state. I've sent a small donation via ActBlue.

Blimey alot of "comment deleteds" this morning! ha...

2008-10-22T10:14:00.000-04:00

Blimey alot of "comment deleteds" this morning! has PumaKent been deleting his theocratic wankings?

Can we be so lucky?

I once was run of the road in NC by an arse in a peeeekup trooock with Idaho plates.

I think he was distracted by the new Walmart across the road and burned his hand on his Starbucks, hence his crap driving.

:)

There's no chance that Idaho goes Blue any time in...

2008-10-22T10:13:00.000-04:00

There's no chance that Idaho goes Blue any time in the next 2 years, but it will definitely close the gap some because of the young population. The liberal-ing of Montana, Colorado, Washington, and Oregon will help.

In the meantime, the Minnick-Sali race is the only chance for Dems owing to the unique case that due to personality, most Republican leaders hate Sali and he's only popular among voters because of the R.

Ink I will have to think about that one. I believe...

2008-10-22T10:04:00.000-04:00

Ink I will have to think about that one. I believe in every election you have that. People will believe what confirms their biases.

I have a strong non relativist bias of my own so comparisons that might align with my ideology but not with empirical facts (which I believe in strongly) just don't jive with me. But that is simple me and I get that for most people this is not the case.
I would expect *analysts* to be a bit more conscious of what facts tell them instead of the balance narrative and the nuggets that align with what people want to believe.
on to the Bradley effect thread.

"Still, what gets to me is that there is this tend...

2008-10-22T09:58:00.000-04:00

"Still, what gets to me is that there is this tendency to equate 'faults' between candidates in order to make the story appear balanced when what one is doing is compare things that are in different orders of magnitude. My point was not about you doing this but that a lot of people do it out of intellectual laxity. Yes?"

Agree to a point. The weird thing about this election is that the comparisons are there *if you are inclined to make them*. If I were a conservative and not particularly focused on my own cognitive biases, I could easily slip into equating them.

New conspiracy theory: Republicans are secretly pu...

2008-10-22T09:57:00.000-04:00

New conspiracy theory: Republicans are secretly pushing the $150,000 clothing spree story so we're distracted from Governor Palin's denial of reality and inability to learn.

lol bex! someone said here a few weeks ago that we...

2008-10-22T09:56:00.000-04:00

lol bex! someone said here a few weeks ago that we should call The Model Heidi (as in Klum). So now when anyone talks of The Model I see her with her german accept telling McCain auf wiedersehen

new thread.

2008-10-22T09:55:00.000-04:00

new thread.

@histocrat."The model doesn't "know" that McCain i...

2008-10-22T09:53:00.000-04:00

@histocrat.

"The model doesn't "know" that McCain is moving toward concentrating on PA."

Don't be so sure. The Model knows EVERYTHING.

;-)

Battleground doesn't poll on the weekends, hence t...

2008-10-22T09:52:00.001-04:00

Battleground doesn't poll on the weekends, hence the oddness. Their Tuesday poll is composed of Monday, then Friday and Thursday from the previous week.

RPC now has Obama at 50.6% - a record I think. 7.6...

2008-10-22T09:52:00.000-04:00

RPC now has Obama at 50.6% - a record I think.

7.6% above McCain. Not quite a record, but I am hopeful.

I call that cruelty to cats.

"Battleground still has Thursday and Frisday of la...

2008-10-22T09:51:00.000-04:00

"Battleground still has Thursday and Frisday of last week in their numbers I believe."

Battleground would have last Weds, Thursday and Sunday, Monday, Tuesday.

I would not be surprise in battleground goes insan...

2008-10-22T09:50:00.000-04:00

I would not be surprise in battleground goes insane next with a huge lead for Obama. Their numbers are very volatile.

got it inkstain. I am not a doctrinaire. My beef w...

2008-10-22T09:48:00.002-04:00

got it inkstain. I am not a doctrinaire. My beef with Palin is sheer meritocracy. I get that people respond to her, that she has charisma and that people with a certain ideology really admire her. And that for them the things I value--intelligence, knowledge, being connected to empirical reality may not mean much.
Still, what gets to me is that there is this tendency to equate 'faults' between candidates in order to make the story appear balanced when what one is doing is compare things that are in different orders of magnitude. My point was not about you doing this but that a lot of people do it out of intellectual laxity. Yes?

Battleground still has Thursday and Frisday of las...

2008-10-22T09:48:00.001-04:00

Battleground still has Thursday and Frisday of last week in their numbers I believe.

ink-"I'm simply trying to remind everyone that the...

2008-10-22T09:48:00.000-04:00

ink-

"I'm simply trying to remind everyone that there are real, rational, intelligent people out there who see things very differently from how we do."

The people you described don't vehemently hate someone from the other party. Intelligent, Rational, real people don't take politics that personally unless they're the candidates. Yes, most everyone respects Biden, even if they disagree with him. To say otherwise means you have a very small opinion of other people.

Haven't see this:http://www.surveyusa.com/client/P...

2008-10-22T09:47:00.001-04:00

Haven't see this:

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=91fdafc8-d133-4fe3-b651-4d15afd0d335

ME

54-39

GWW Battleground Has Obama +2 today one point impr...

2008-10-22T09:46:00.000-04:00

GWW Battleground Has Obama +2 today one point improvement from yesterday, this according to RCP