Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: The Oprah Effect, Revisited

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2009-10-08T06:51:53.972-04:00

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2009-09-11T07:51:55.971-04:00

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2009-04-06T13:00:00.000-04:00

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2009-02-15T21:31:00.000-05:00

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2009-02-09T21:40:00.000-05:00

I read the paper over the weekend & found it to be...

2008-08-13T09:06:00.000-04:00

I read the paper over the weekend & found it to be very reasonable technically. I thought there might be some confounding between Oprah's influence & propensity to contribute to Obama. They provided a reasonable analysis that Oprah's effect was something else, and their pre-endorsement analysis of the Oprah effect with Obama's senate primary campaign was pretty convincing.

That being said, this appears to have limited applicability to evaluating endorsements in general. I think the key factor that made Oprah effective was that there was little policy difference between the two candidates. It is doubtful an endorsement would be as effective between Obama & McCain for example.

Mule,I've seen the Paris "ad" multiple times and i...

2008-08-06T20:17:00.000-04:00

Mule,

I've seen the Paris "ad" multiple times and it is hysterical and potentially damaging.

I know if something like this happened to Obama and he was hit on his weakest points (say race although hard to imagine or being an empty suit etc.) I would be very upset... to say the least.

The McCain camp strategy appears to just laugh it off, which likely means they have no counter punch. Again, I know if this type of sharp satire was directed at Obama and getting wall-to-wall media coverage, I would not be laughing.

oprah gave the SC speech before the iowa caucus. s...

2008-08-06T19:55:00.000-04:00

oprah gave the SC speech before the iowa caucus. so, i don't think your theory holds up really well.

OK, I guess I had the order in South Carolina wrong. But the point is still the same, but I will reverse the order.

1) Oprah told 30,000 people in South Carolina that Obama was the man.

2) Black voters in South Carolina, after hearing Oprah, THEN seeing that Obama won Iowa, (in part because of Oprah), decided they needed to vote for Obama.

The end result, just as in Oprah's Book Club: An Oprah recommendation leads to unprecedented positive results.

Thank you very much filistro.

2008-08-06T19:42:00.000-04:00

Thank you very much filistro.

oprah gave the SC speech before the iowa caucus. s...

2008-08-06T19:06:00.000-04:00

oprah gave the SC speech before the iowa caucus. so, i don't think your theory holds up really well.

Robocalling Indiana:"The case centers on the 1988 ...

2008-08-06T18:59:00.000-04:00

Robocalling Indiana:

"The case centers on the 1988 Indiana Autodialer Act, which limits the use of automated phone calls. The statute mandates that a live operator first disclose the source and purpose of the call, as well as any goods or services being promoted."

and:

"Indiana requires introduction of any prerecorded message by a live operator; the message may not be played unless the called party grants permission."

So they can use pre-recorded polls, but there's an extra hassle of an in-person introduction and gaining permission.

realistxxx,Did you see the Paris ad? I'm sure you ...

2008-08-06T18:58:00.000-04:00

realistxxx,

Did you see the Paris ad? I'm sure you did. I saw it on Leno last night...I fell off the couch laughing.

I agree that her "reply" might really "skewer" him in the long run. How nuts would that be if this election was (partially) decided by Paris Hilton. Holy crap!
That is too funny...yet sad too.

McCain deserves any and all backlash he gets for that nonsense...if he wants to have a civil discussion about Obama's "inexperience", then there are a million other useful ways to go about that...talk about his short Senate tenure and voting record...hell, talk about his "young" age...whatever. But, and I ask this on behalf of the entire country, please leave Britney and Paris out of this!!! Don't we see enough of them in the tabloids, on magazine covers, on ET! and all those other entertainment shows, and occasionally in music, a movie, or a television show...we don't need them in political ads...good grief, McCain is an old, washed-up fart.

Jack-be-nimble:Please provide a cite to document y...

2008-08-06T18:56:00.000-04:00

Jack-be-nimble:

Please provide a cite to document your claim tht Obama admitted that he got in under Affirmative Action. (That is what you claimed when you said:
"Obama stated just last week that he was AA. The account came up over his criticism of McCain's support of many states having initiatives ridding themselves of race-based preferences.")

Otherwise please be nimble enough to crawl back under your rock.

I agree that Oprah was a huge factor in getting O...

2008-08-06T18:52:00.000-04:00

I agree that Oprah was a huge factor in getting Obama the nomination.

She helped convince voters in Iowa that Obama would be a great President. After Obama won Iowa, Blacks in South Carolina started believing that a Black man could win the nomination and the Presidency. Then Oprah made an important visit and speech to 30,000 people in South Carolina to restate her belief that Obama should win, and could win, if those listening would vote for him.

Mule,McCain was hoisted on his own petard 2 times ...

2008-08-06T18:50:00.000-04:00

Mule,

McCain was hoisted on his own petard 2 times yesterday and had one unforced error. All of these have been played up in the press yesterday and today.

1) Paris Hilton completely skewered him for his silly celebrity ad. She also got in so many references to his age that have to sting

2) The tire guage ploy (again silly) has completely backfired. Handled deftly by Obama in his OH town hall

3) (unfeorced error) Pimping his wife for Miss Buffalo Chip... complete with "sanitized" footage of the contest.

I think honesty in politics is so rare that it will almost always be well received. However, if you saw Pawlenty's speech, he clearly fumbled badly especially when he tried to backtrack.

I meant to interject above that if people like Paw...

2008-08-06T18:46:00.000-04:00

I meant to interject above that if people like Pawlenty and Palin and more GOP started using that "praise" language, whether they mean it or not, that would be beating Obama to the punch on his own theme of inspiration and a changing climate in politics...

...but judging by how Mccain's campaign has already run its business and that he's just a mean old jackass, I think his bad attitude will overshadow any praise his surrogates might give unless he has a total makeover.

Lupercal,Hey. Sorry about that. I couldn't help bu...

2008-08-06T18:43:00.000-04:00

Lupercal,

Hey. Sorry about that. I couldn't help but sneak in a bitingly sarcastic remark about liberalism.

Glad you humor me at least a little bit :) Thanks.

I'll try to keep the "ideological branding" to a minimum...

...it's much better to stay 100% neutral, but even as a non-partisan, I have my "ideological" moments.

Thanks for keeping me in line. I need it.

realistxxx,Actually, I think if more people (even ...

2008-08-06T18:39:00.000-04:00

realistxxx,

Actually, I think if more people (even potential GOP VP picks) like Pawlenty and Palin started praising Obama in a limited way - his inspirational message, his passion to solve the energy and health care crises - yet not yield to his overall message, it would benefit McCain much more than this bull-dookie of running ads with Paris and Britney...

...which, by the way, I saw the Paris rebuttal, and that was hilarious. Loved it. She's still one goofy heifer, but that was impressive...

Anyway, the "pundits" always talk about how Obama has and should continue to beat McCain to the punch on certain issues...vague praise and support for the "aura of Obama" and not his general theme might actually swing a lot of support towards the GOP...

"Uh, that would be "uber-liberal" DNA."hello mule....

2008-08-06T18:37:00.000-04:00

"Uh, that would be "uber-liberal" DNA."

hello mule. perhaps you're having a little fun, but it must be a bit startling getting your hand in your granma's cookie jar. i thought you "always" wanted to have constructive discussions. hey, it's funny. but im only pointing this out to bring up the fact that all of your previous posts have kinda been attacks on other people, and then rants crucifying people who disagree with your ideological branding of their politics.

im still a big fan tough. im always thoroughly entertained by anything that you say. wether they're relevant or not.

Forget about Oprah's endorsement. Pawlenty praise...

2008-08-06T18:31:00.000-04:00

Forget about Oprah's endorsement.

Pawlenty praised Obama's positive and optimistic message in a speech today, and then tried to stumble back and say McCain is positive too.

The Mac campaign actually released a statement to clarify what Pawlenty meant.

A few days ago Palin endorsed Obama's energy plan.

I guess there's always Mitt.

@John - What I don't understand about the HCD poll...

2008-08-06T18:29:00.000-04:00

@John -

What I don't understand about the HCD poll is why that ad slightly improved McCain's ratings among some democrats.

Nate says: "some piece of DNA that might not manif...

2008-08-06T18:20:00.000-04:00

Nate says: "some piece of DNA that might not manifest itself in traditional demographic categories like age, income or race, but which simultaneously makes one both more likely to subscribe to Oprah's products and to vote for Barack Obama"

Uh, that would be "uber-liberal" DNA.

"Is proof enough that he expects to be elected by ...

2008-08-06T18:18:00.000-04:00

"Is proof enough that he expects to be elected by some kind of convoluted Affirmative Action plan."

And did you realize that your statement makes no sense at all? How could someone be 'elected' through affirmative action.

I guess you're just playing the race card which you've assailed so eloquently in your previous postings.

Jack-be-nimble-I'm guessing you didn't see the McC...

2008-08-06T18:15:00.000-04:00

Jack-be-nimble-

I'm guessing you didn't see the McCain ad that placed Obama's face on Mt. Rushmore, and replaced Ben Franklin's visage on the $100 bill with Obama's?

What Obama said was not 'race-baiting', it was a true statement.

Nate:I'm no Apple-can-do-no-wrong fanboy, but you'...

2008-08-06T18:13:00.000-04:00

Nate:

I'm no Apple-can-do-no-wrong fanboy, but you're wrong in saying that the iPod isn't/wasn't significantly differentiated from its competitors. Though the hardware itself was basically the same as other MP3 players (no FM tuner or other whiz bang features), it was the interface of the iPod and it's ease of use in it's seamless integration with iTunes (for loading and unloading music) that DID differentiate it from its rivals. The TOTAL PACKAGE of the iPod experience was more than the sum of its parts and triumphed despite a price premium and, initially, only being available for Macs.

If I might, I'd say that Obama is much more iPod like than other politicians in that, though he fulfills the function of a politician/candidate in much the same was as others, he offers a superior package of inspiration, consistent messaging (mostly...FISA...cough cough), branding, and intercompatibility (appealing to a broader swath of voters than just the party faithful and appealing to other nations).

Okay, tortured analogy over, I promise!