Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Road to 270: Oregon

徵信社, 感情挽回, 挽回感情, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 捉姦, 徵信公司, ...

2009-02-09T02:30:00.000-05:00

情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,...

2009-01-18T02:00:00.000-05:00

Gordon Smith's campaign ads are hilarious. I saw ...

2008-10-22T14:00:00.000-04:00

Gordon Smith's campaign ads are hilarious. I saw one last night (I was watching Jeopardy! and I live in Portland) that was pretty much, "Ron Wyden is a great great great guy, and we work together ALL THE TIME!" It had Wyden saying the same thing, and I'm pretty sure they were making out by the end of the ad. Smith is hilariously desperate.

Also I find it depressing that Merkley the Douche is the best the DNC can come up with. And the only third party on the ballot is the Constitution party (which don't even get me started on how the extreme right fringe has co-opted the idea of constitutionalism to mean pretty much intolerance and isolationism). "None of the Above" please.

""In my opinion, if you are pro choice, you "suppo...

2008-10-16T18:23:00.000-04:00

""In my opinion, if you are pro choice, you "support" abortion. You have to, by definition."

This misconception really has to be cleared up. Pro-choice just means you support other people having the right to make their own private choice - that it's a personal decision not a legal decision. You can be absolutely solidly -morally-, that is personally, opposed to abortion, but as long as it doesn't cross the line to -legally-, that is, government makes this decision, opposed to abortion, then you're pro-choice.

Things which are currently decided legally are murder, theft, rape. Things which are currently decided morally are drinking, cheating on your SO, eating meat. Being pro-choice about something doesn't necessarily mean you think it's good, just that you think it's a personal issue not a public one.

Marx was right:For starters, Portland is NOT the s...

2008-10-15T18:07:00.000-04:00

Marx was right:

For starters, Portland is NOT the state capitol of Oregon; that would be Salem.

For another, the population of Portland is closer to 75% white, not 80%.

For a third, lots of us white folks in Portland are pretty darn nice.

Way to bash a city you've never been to based upon some shit you read in a blog.

Please qualify your statement "the smartest and be...

2008-10-15T16:06:00.000-04:00

Please qualify your statement "the smartest and best voting process, as all ballots are mail-in." I live in Washington State, and mail-in ballots were a major contributor to the recount debacle in the gubernatorial race four years ago. As you'll recall, Republican Dino Rossi won the initial count and the first recount. It was only after the "discovery" of a number of absentee ballots that Christine Gregoire was able to pull ahead and win the election with a margin of 129 votes out of more than 2750000 votes cast.

Re vote-by-mail and coercion:It rarely happens as ...

2008-10-15T15:20:00.000-04:00

Re vote-by-mail and coercion:

It rarely happens as far as we can tell. I've chatted with the Secretary of State about this, and there have been no verifiable complaints.

I have run a ballot replacement assistance program in Multnomah County for 3 election cycles (this will be my 4th). I have talked to a lot of voters with problems. While this is not scientific, I have had only one caller who said she thought her conservative son-in-law had hidden or destroyed her ballot. We took her a form, got it signed, took it to elections, and got her another ballot.

Oregon makes it really easy to vote: any felon not in jail can vote, people in jail on misdemeanors can vote, homeless can vote. As long as you have an address where you can receive a ballot, you can vote.

There have been very few problems, and we've been using the system for 10 years. Yes, there could be cases of coercion that nobody is aware of--but those could go both ways, and they're probably not numerous enough to affect an election.

Oregon in general has fairly clean politics in terms of elections. However, we have a voter protection hotline and observers at the elections offices.

This has probably been mentioned above somewhere, ...

2008-10-15T13:31:00.000-04:00

This has probably been mentioned above somewhere, but Gore only won Oregon by 7,000 or so votes in 2000. Saying that he won the state "handily" is not accurate. While the focus was on Florida that year, we didn't know where Oregon's 7 electoral votes went for a couple days after the election.

He should have selected Lieberman.

2008-10-15T01:28:00.000-04:00

He should have selected Lieberman.

Orgeon?re-dsiplay?Also, "all ballots are mail-in" ...

2008-10-14T21:45:00.000-04:00

Orgeon?
re-dsiplay?
Also, "all ballots are mail-in" is a slight exaggeration. It's still possible to complete your ballot in person at the county elections offices, it's just not popular. They have cardboard "voting booths". And lots of people drop their ballots off at the official drop boxes rather than mailing them.

Blogger Dan said... "Other than Michigan, what...

2008-10-14T20:53:00.000-04:00

Blogger Dan said...

"Other than Michigan, what primary did Romney win? Not sure he had any others.

He won a handful of caucuses - Minnesota, Montana as I recall, maybe one or two others."

Alaska, Minnesota, Utah, Colorado, Wyoming, North Dakota, Maine, Massachusetts.

Of the 11 states, Nevada and Montana were caucuses.

And Montana was really weird because the Ron Paul people essentially hijacked the Republican caucuses with the explicit purpose of costing McCain Montana. Romney just sort of snuck in there.

Pretty soon we won't be able to see any RED on the...

2008-10-14T19:45:00.000-04:00

Pretty soon we won't be able to see any RED on the Simulations Plot. ;>)

I'm a former Washingtonian living in Portland and ...

2008-10-14T19:37:00.000-04:00

I'm a former Washingtonian living in Portland and my work takes me all over the state - it's pretty crazy how different areas like Roseburg, Medford, and Pendleton are politically from Portland. I've definitely seen the extremes and have gotten quite a few fingers for my Obama sticker. But, as a former Washington Husky, the classic saying about the two major football programs in Oregon still stands: Beavers suck, but Ducks swallow!

Re: Abortion discussion..thanks to Marx and Alyssa...

2008-10-14T18:57:00.000-04:00

Re: Abortion discussion..thanks to Marx and Alyssa regarding men weighing in on the abortion issue.

As a woman who is vehemently pro-choice it has always irritated the shit out of me when a bunch of middle aged men make decisions about what a woman can do with her body. I used to do clinic defense work here in Chicago and we have had varying groups of anti-choice (usually wing nuts) trying to blockade the clinic doors etc. Chicago is a very blue town and they have little tolerance for such crap so thankfully, these people were usually arrested. It never failed though, it was always, middle-aged, white men who were the loudest and most obnoxious. They still sometimes congregate in the Loop with their 4 foot signs of "fetuses" and I usually cuss them out as I walk to the train.

I completely agree with Marx's comment that it's not about the babies but rather another attempt to control women. These are the same types that opposed women's sufferage, birth equal, ERA etc. If they were that worried about the babies, they would actually give a shit once they were born, which, we all know, they don't.

Alan -- have you ever voted absentee? It's the sam...

2008-10-14T18:32:00.000-04:00

Alan -- have you ever voted absentee? It's the same thing!

53 - 39 Obama in the NYTimes poll.14 points. Wow.

2008-10-14T18:31:00.000-04:00

53 - 39 Obama in the NYTimes poll.

14 points. Wow.

"I didn't read all the comments (300+ is far too m...

2008-10-14T18:27:00.000-04:00

"I didn't read all the comments (300+ is far too many) but a number of people have already explained how vote by mail is secure."

Then maybe you didn't get that I don't dispute the idea that it's secure after it is put in the envelope(s) and mailed (though it could always just plain get lost in the mail and you'd never know it). My issue is with the fact that you can't ensure that people are able to fill out the ballots privately. Can you imagine if we had a system like this in the machine politics era? Oregon may be relatively free of such tendencies (although I still worry about intrafamily dynamics), but if it were introduced more widely there is bound to be abuse.

Speaking as a resident of Oregon... Vote by mail r...

2008-10-14T18:17:00.000-04:00

Speaking as a resident of Oregon... Vote by mail really is the only way to go. It solves so many problems, is cheaper, increases voter turn out.

I didn't read all the comments (300+ is far too many) but a number of people have already explained how vote by mail is secure.

I can add however that a few years back after a year working at a job where I was signing a log book dozens of times a day my signature changed quite a bit (Most of the actual letters vanished for the sake of speed) and sure enough when I went to vote the next time mine got flagged out and I was contacted saying so and asked to provide a fresh registration with a current signature to prove that I was in fact the one who signed it. Wasn't a big deal, cleared it right up, my vote was counted, and given how much my signature had changed in that time, shows that they are being checked.

...And don't forget, the Oregon Voter guide is one...

2008-10-14T18:05:00.000-04:00

...And don't forget, the Oregon Voter guide is one of the finest pieces of literature on the planet!!! Anyone with $1500 bucks can put in a pro or con for ballot measures. We a state flush with those who would be Jonathan Swift, ala "A Modest Proposal"

"[I]f someone is intimidated enough to give over t...

2008-10-14T17:59:00.000-04:00

"[I]f someone is intimidated enough to give over their ballot to their boss or husband, why do you think that they aren't so intimidated that they won't vote they way they've been told when they get into the booth?"

Ummmm...because no one can see how they vote when they are in the booth? C'mon, this is pretty basic here--in fact, it is the essence of why the secret ballot was introduced.

"You worry about every ballot being as secret as can be. I worry about challenges at the polls, in-person voter intimidation, lines long enough that people can't get in during their lunch hour, and people that can't get away from work at all to vote."

So have early voting, but require people to go in and vote at the county clerk's office or maybe a few satellite locations as well. Surely people can find some time over a period of a month or so.

"Oregon's system works, and it works well, and I'm sick of hearing the same tired arguments against it every time. These arguments, incidentally, apply just as much to absentee voting, yet strangely I never hear complaints about that."

In Missouri where I live, you can't vote absentee unless you sign a form swearing that you will be out of town or have some other reason you can't vote on Election Day. (This is true for early voting as well, which I do think is too strict.)

"Studies of spousal pressure in voting in Oregon have shown that husbands feel they were pushed by wives to vote a certain way more often than the other way around."

That's just as bad.

"Anyone who feels they were intimidated to vote can and should immediately call the county clerk to have a hold placed on it. They can then re-vote their ballot if they choose at the county clerk's office."

Not likely to happen in the real world.

"If you have a family member who is so coercive as to fill out your ballot for you, then you have a lot worse and more immediate problems on your hands than how to get your vote out."

You do, but at least in most states your problem isn't inflicted on the country (and world) at large through electing the wrong president.

Alan

Too many colors John Mashey. We only do shades of ...

2008-10-14T17:58:00.000-04:00

Too many colors John Mashey. We only do shades of red and blue.

In many states (including OR),politics makes more ...

2008-10-14T17:54:00.000-04:00

In many states (including OR),politics makes more sense if one consults Joel Garreau's fine old book, The Nine Nations of North America or see more precise map that splits states more.

OR (and WA) are split East/West between real "nations" of The Empty Quarter and Ecotopia. States (on the more accurate map) that are split between "nations" tend to have "interesting" politics.

I have to say that, unlike previous elections, the...

2008-10-14T17:52:00.001-04:00

I have to say that, unlike previous elections, the first three debates DID influence the polls. Nate had posted a few weeks ago that they generally have not influenced the polls or the end results on election day. I would disagree on that for this year. Obama needed "face time" with the public so they could see him side by side with a more traditional candidate (white rich boring male).

I hope he does well tomorrow night so the numbers keep climbing in his favor.

new thread up for those not paying attention

2008-10-14T17:52:00.000-04:00

new thread up for those not paying attention

Right track is from how many people think the coun...

2008-10-14T17:50:00.000-04:00

Right track is from how many people think the county is on the right track.

I think the next line simply states that both have new political state polls out tonight.

I think they point to two different things