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2009-01-19T09:00:00.000-05:00

Like I said EVERY poll needs to be help with a gra...

2008-09-21T17:06:27.124-04:00

Like I said EVERY poll needs to be help with a grain of salt. If the race is within 3 points one way or the other I won't be too worried on election night. There is a LARGE sample of O voters that frankly aren't being polled, including ME. This will be interesting to see. Only about 45 days left, LET'S GET TO WORK.

Thanks so much for this post! I've been waiting f...

2008-09-21T11:58:00.907-04:00

Thanks so much for this post! I've been waiting for it!!!!! :) I personally think that including cell phones lends to the best possible sampling. And I LOVE what these numbers show!

GEAUX OBAMA/BIDEN '08

One caveat about this analysis: the cell-phone eff...

2008-09-21T01:30:03.018-04:00

One caveat about this analysis: the cell-phone effect is not equally strong in all states. One would expect (I'm just making an educated guess here) that it would be weaker in states with an older population (e.g. PA and FL), and stronger in states with a younger one (e.g. CO).

On the whole, I'd expect the cell-phone effect to be stronger in states where Obama runs stronger anyway, and of all swing states, probably only CO would be a place where the cell-phone effect could play a decisive role.

What's funny is that ABC News polling director Gar...

2008-09-20T18:35:27.962-04:00

What's funny is that ABC News polling director Gary Langer just posted about his own test poll to estimate the cell-only effect.

He came up with a similar result (Obama picks up 2% among likely voters), but inexplicably called that shift "negligible."

Nate, thanks for explaining why 2% is anything but a negligible shift.

I have a theory about Presidential elections. Ther...

2008-09-20T17:01:33.605-04:00

I have a theory about Presidential elections. There are basically 3 types of election- one with a sitting President as a candidate, one with a vice president representing the current administration, and one with no representation of the current administration.

In the first situation the President will normally win (In the 20th Century only 5 Presidents lost a re-election battle, Taft Hoover, Ford, Carter and George HW Bush; TR, Wilson, Coolidge, FDR, Truman, Ike, LBJ, Nixon, Reagan and Clinton all won from the white house, a 2:1 ratio).

In the second situation, its a rare, and mixed, bag. (Actually its quite rare for a VP to run, but Nixon, Humphrey and Gore lost to George HW Bush's win a 1:3 win:loss ration, so its a reverse, but not statistically significant probably)

Now the third case. 1920- Presidents party lose, 1952 Presidents party lose, are the only cases from the 20th century, but searching back into the past the record doesn't improve that quickly. James A Garfield was the last case of winning in this circumstance (and he only lasted 6 months)

Basically in both of the last 2 types of election my theory is that karma makes people want to punish the President. People don't tend to do that to sitting Presidents. There usually have to be unusual circumstances (usuall;y a strong 3rd party candidate) or a high level of perceived incompetence to have people punish the sitting President. Overall I think that one of the under currents of this election is a desire to punish George W Bush. Providing Obama meets a certain threshold of being worthy of the Presidency then he will win.

Re: October Surprises.The one advantage of being a...

2008-09-20T16:01:06.643-04:00

Re: October Surprises.

The one advantage of being a black politician is that you have some extra immunity to pure smear campaigns.

McCain CANNOT risk being labeled a racist just to get a few % more Rustbelt Rednecks to the polls.

Friends,PBS has a short video on Sarah Palin on th...

2008-09-20T15:31:25.545-04:00

Friends,

PBS has a short video on Sarah Palin on their website. Also included is a poll that asks: Is Sarah Palin qualified to be VP?

I logged on a few minutes ago and 56% percent had voted YES, 44% NO.

Let's turn this around..... You don't have to give your name or email address in order to vote. It's very simple.

Here's the link: http://www.pbs.org/now/polls/poll-435.html

It has been a general observation that the Bradley...

2008-09-20T15:16:41.577-04:00

It has been a general observation that the Bradley effect (see previous post) has dissapeared in recent years. Perhaps it has been partially eclipsed by the cell phone effect. Calculations of the Bradley effect usually involve comparing polls that don't call cell phones with the election results. If the cell phone effect is included this suggests that the Bradley effect never really dissappeared, it just got concealed by technological change.

As for the "Reverse Bradley Effect" that is probably due to pollster models not capturing the rise in African American turnout this year.

It will be interesting to compare the poll averages with the actual returns the day after the election. I suspect that the margin in Pennsylvania will shift for McCain by about 2% more, and that the margin in Virginia will shift for Obama by about 5% more than the RCP averages.

Alan Keyes should be in every election, just for c...

2008-09-20T14:54:00.138-04:00

Alan Keyes should be in every election, just for comedic value.

Interestingly enough, i've been reading obama's book, and he recounts an interesting conversation he had when first meeting president bush...the end of the conversation goes something like this:

bush: you and me have something else in common?

obama: what's that?

bush: we've both had to debate alan keys. that guy's a real piece of work!

For Mule Rider,http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W3ij...

2008-09-20T14:53:04.035-04:00

For Mule Rider,

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W3ijYVyhnn0

warning-- I'm sure your head will explode

Drudge is full throttle trying to sew race in to t...

2008-09-20T14:52:27.572-04:00

Drudge is full throttle trying to sew race in to this thing. I bet he and Fournier exchanged blowjobs yesterday.

"that being said, the "sex ed for kindergartners" ...

2008-09-20T14:47:50.212-04:00

"that being said, the "sex ed for kindergartners" thing was new and creative,"

Actually they stole it from Alan Keyes.

i don't think the 527s have anything new up their ...

2008-09-20T14:46:50.052-04:00

i don't think the 527s have anything new up their sleeves. i think it's more likely that they will unleash a massive bombardment of the same stuff...

that being said, the "sex ed for kindergartners" thing was new and creative, so who knows? and that was the campaign itself, no?

Vanessa-I think they want to keep their powder dry...

2008-09-20T14:40:50.810-04:00

Vanessa-

I think they want to keep their powder dry and ready to go to see if they can make a difference closer to 11/4, not that they have something juicy.

I also think McCain's support among the hard right is not as strong as Bush II.

and this is the youtube election. Theres not as mu...

2008-09-20T14:39:59.222-04:00

and this is the youtube election. Theres not as much potential for an october surprise that hasnt already been leaked and run its course.

Yes so much of swiftboating is it is some new slam and it takes time for the real story to get out to neutralize it. If a 527 uses any of the 'old stuff' we all know what the facts are and shout it down immediately.

My sister had been suckered in by the 'Born Alive' smear - I had all the info showing her how it didn't mean what she thought it meant. Whether it changed her mind who knows, but she won't be repeating it herself any more.

Charles M. Kozierok wrote:There's going to be a hu...

2008-09-20T14:36:10.627-04:00

Charles M. Kozierok wrote:
There's going to be a huge slew of anti-Obama ads flooding the airwaves in late October. This isn't over by a long shot.

The anti-Obama ads have gained very little traction thus far, and there isn't much reason to think they will change many minds going forward. People just aren't afraid of Obama. They wonder if he is "experienced" enough, but his "favourables" are right up there with McCain's. Two weeks ago on this board there were wild predictions of big negative consequences over the release of the "Ayers CAC report", which turned out not to even register on the nation's political radar.

As the recent negative ads have backfired on McCain (he is now considering an "apology"), it's not likely that a higher volume of negative ads will really make that much difference.

Gallup shows that about 80% of the people have already made up their minds, and only 9% are truly "undecided". Speaking strictly from the experience I have had with internal polling here in Minnesota, I think this is true.

Any pollster who says that MN is close is over-sampling the rural areas. For example, one Republican internal poll droid pointed to solid McCain support in rural Rock County as "proof" that the state will "go red".

Rock County has 9700 residents. If every man, woman, and infant voted for McCain - even if the dead all rose from their graves in that county and voted for McCain - it would not register as a microscopic blip when compared against the 3.5 million of the Twin Cities metro.

When one points this out, however, one is accused of saying that rural voters "don't count". They do, but they don't indicate how an entire state will vote. And Republican-leaning pollsters love to over-sample the rural areas. AS someone else here once said, "square miles don't vote, people do".

"Would you be comfortable with Sarah Palin as Pres...

2008-09-20T14:35:43.117-04:00

"Would you be comfortable with Sarah Palin as President?"

More so than with Obama or Biden.

Do you guys think that the fact that the 527's hav...

2008-09-20T14:35:31.324-04:00

Do you guys think that the fact that the 527's havent come out yet suggests that they have some dirt for October?

Eric, I think we can only hope he is on permanent ...

2008-09-20T14:33:47.203-04:00

Eric, I think we can only hope he is on permanent sabbatical.

If Obama wins, I think Bush may come out of the woodwork to do all sorts of crazy things.

My big fear is him bombing Iran on his way out the door.

"I do not think that that the dislike is from an i...

2008-09-20T14:26:53.120-04:00

"I do not think that that the dislike is from an ideological standpoint. I think it is more personal than anything else."

Very likely. Their primary campaign in 2000 was rather nasty.

Similar personal dislike may have also led to his decision not to tap romney as his running mate (and as an obama supporter i say "thank god"). romney in the current economic crises might have been a winner. of course mccain can't switch now, that would look even worse.

"In my political science class, of the 40 kids in ...

2008-09-20T14:26:50.706-04:00

"In my political science class, of the 40 kids in there, only about 20 have expressed an interest in voting, the other 20 could careless, and many are not registered."

They could care less? How much less?
I think you mean they couldn't care less. There is a difference.

VC:Would you be comfortable with Sarah Palin as Pr...

2008-09-20T14:26:28.248-04:00

VC:

Would you be comfortable with Sarah Palin as President?

Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Estimating the Cellphone Effect: 2.8 2.2 Points

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