Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Afghanistan: 2004 results and 2009 Polling

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2010-03-02T13:37:04.869-05:00

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2009-10-12T05:00:19.952-04:00

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. Wonder how privatizing the war would poll? Do th...

2009-08-20T15:28:47.379-04:00

.
Wonder how privatizing the war would poll? Do they care who our assassins work for? Hard to poll dead Afghans & Iraqi's, I guess. Margin of error...
.

And how would a valid poll adjust for the fact tha...

2009-08-20T07:58:34.832-04:00

And how would a valid poll adjust for the fact that respondents in areas where the Taliban has a presence have been threatened with removal of any 'purple finger'?

Anyone willing to put forth the results of their poll as meaning ful is pushing a propaganda effort of one sort or another.

Gee, let's see. A poll in a war torn country with ...

2009-08-19T22:30:39.192-04:00

Gee, let's see. A poll in a war torn country with a refusal rate of over 1/3 and wild uncertainty about who will even dare to go to the polls amid threats of bombing.

Sound like that poll has any accuracy? Would a poll taken in similar circumstances in the U.S. be given any validity at all?

Gee, let's see. A poll in a war torn country with ...

2009-08-19T22:30:23.878-04:00

Brian and Jessi, Why do you think the currant adm...

2009-08-19T21:10:49.976-04:00

Brian and Jessi,

Why do you think the currant administration will support Karzai at the expense of democracy (if it comes to that)? A search on "Obama Karzai" uncovers a host of articles, most of which say that Obama isn't supporting Karzai nearly as strongly as Dubya did.
Have you seen any evidence that Obama's foreign policy would so heavy-handedly abrogate the democratically expressed will of the people? (Note, for e.g., his response criticizing the Honduran coup.)

The IRI is NOT non-partisan. Just take a gander ...

2009-08-19T18:49:30.050-04:00

The IRI is NOT non-partisan.

Just take a gander at their board of directors.

In fact, following with the Bush administration's desire to not buy into U.N. election monitors the IRI was pushed forward as an alternative-- but it had then and has now a clear agenda, which is to advance conservatism. In most cases this agenda is not inompatible with its stated purpose, but there could be cases where it might be (ergo the basis for its creation in the form that it is.)

I would be very, very careful about depending on IRI as a reliable source of information. At the very least be very aware that it does have a clear very partisan agenda as the membership of its board of directors makes clear.

Is there enough data to construct a predictive mod...

2009-08-19T18:47:58.568-04:00

Is there enough data to construct a predictive model on a par with that used on 538 to predict the results in the US in 2008?

Sadly, Jessi_composed is probably on the right tra...

2009-08-19T18:04:20.611-04:00

Sadly, Jessi_composed is probably on the right track. Karzai will win, either in this first round or possibly in a second, because he is "our" man. When he ceases to be "our" man, he will leave the Presidency, and not via election- it'll be via plane to take him into exile or via bullets to the head.

This election is pretty well openly rigged, and as with the Iranian election in June, the fake vote totals will tell us nothing about the true political state of play in Afghanistan.

Since the Kabul government is dwindling, the election becomes even less relevant than it would have been otherwise.

I feel like we'll see a similar situation like we ...

2009-08-19T17:00:45.205-04:00

I feel like we'll see a similar situation like we did in Iran; we just don't have the information. In America, we have years of polling data, data on everything. We have dozens of polls, and whole blogs dedicated to parsing them.

We just don't have this history in Afghanistan. Hopefully soon we will.

I just hope the US isn't rigging the election to k...

2009-08-19T16:13:35.668-04:00

I just hope the US isn't rigging the election to keep Karzai, their puppet, in office. This is probably a contributing factor in the violence threats. This clip looks at the issue more closely. http://www.newsy.com/videos/afghan_elections_a_breakdown_of_the_candidates/comments

Anybody know of a website that will report the vot...

2009-08-19T15:49:57.209-04:00

Anybody know of a website that will report the vote live?

Isn't it about time for an update to the Senate ra...

2009-08-19T15:02:20.447-04:00

Isn't it about time for an update to the Senate rankings?