Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Is There a Serious Conservative Argument Against t...

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2009-10-09T08:41:10.637-04:00

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キャッシングインプラントクレジットカード　現金化ダンボール

2009-07-22T04:00:11.317-04:00

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2009-03-28T05:12:00.000-04:00

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Silver - The first critique of Mankiw, a professio...

2009-01-22T22:50:00.000-05:00

Silver - The first critique of Mankiw, a professional highly published economist, and his multiplier article was intelligent, but it happened your central theme was wrong. And along the way you slightly stepped over the line of rationale discourse and indulged into an ad hominem by questioning Mankiw's personal motives. Well it's the blogosphere, it happens, but Mankiw politely responded and a small apology was in order from you. Instead we get this litany of rationalizations, as if you set down at a prewired keyboard with the buttons 'straw man', a non-sequitor distraction into 'look i'm clever', and 'you cant make me' all neatly laid out along QWERTY.

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2009-01-16T03:36:00.000-05:00

In short, using exogenous tax cut numbers in order...

2009-01-15T20:45:00.000-05:00

In short, using exogenous tax cut numbers in order to estimate the effectiveness of tax cuts in this economy is bogus economics on par with using regular tyre failure rates on the equator to estimate regular tyre failure rates in the arctic.

And p.s. Nate, great work.

The main problem with Mankiw's reasoning is one th...

2009-01-15T20:31:00.000-05:00

The main problem with Mankiw's reasoning is one that recurs through the Economics discipline. Fundamentally Mankiw is arguing that if the tax cut gives you a 300% multiplier effect during regular times when people are perfectly rational and things are hunky-dory, it will give you a 300% multiplier effect when things are not fine - even though it would not show up in the data as a 300% increase because of other data distortingreasons during a recession. This is fundamentally faulty because economic systems are dynamic. That is, Mankiw ignores the fact that people act differently in different macroeconomic situations - in a boom and in a recession. Different behavior patterns, in turn, affect the efficacy of tax cuts. Therefore, analyzing the experiment in a sterile, controlled experiment will not give you the results that you get in the real world.

As an example, when drugs or, in fact, any products are tested, they are tested in the world that they anticipate they are going to be used. That is, regular tyres to be used in temperate zones are tested in 'regular' temperatures and failure rates are recorded. However, it is obvious that failure rates in the controlled conditions may not apply in the arctic. We understand that the unusual conditions affect the efficacy of the actual tyres (affecting the very rubber it uses through expansion/contraction etc). Mankiw is in effect saying that it would have the same failure rate, but that the coldness of the Arctic merely distorts the figures. We know, however, that its not just the figures that are distorted by the unusual setting of the experiment, but that the tyres are actually less effective in that setting.

Lately I've been happy to sit back and watch price...

2009-01-13T16:03:00.000-05:00

Lately I've been happy to sit back and watch prices deflate while I horde my money and wait for the right time to buy both a new house and two new cars. At the same time, I know millions of people are behaving the same way I'm acutely aware of how dangerous a situation this is for the economy.

The regressive tax cuts that supply-siders like Mankiw generally favor would do nothing to change this situation. OTOH, an expansion of the EITC or other progressive tax cut could in fact spur consumer spending, but the lion's share of the money would have to go to those in the bottom quintile- people who would spend that money right away. A raise in the minimum wage could work too.

And don't be afraid to argue with academic economists- they don't know nearly as much as they pretend to know, and if they behave in a condescending manner, that's all the more reason to doubt them.

Here is a direct link to Zosima's comment.

2009-01-12T19:56:00.000-05:00

Here is a direct link to Zosima's comment.

On Mankiw vs. Nate- Those of you who missed Zosima...

2009-01-12T15:17:00.000-05:00

On Mankiw vs. Nate- Those of you who missed Zosima's comment on the earlier thread should catch it, a great little summary of the basics.

The Gist of the Plan

2009-01-12T15:12:00.000-05:00

The Gist of the Plan

Tim Ryan to run for Voinovich Seat

2009-01-12T15:11:00.000-05:00

Tim Ryan to run for Voinovich Seat

fred, what's prickish about a columnist offering a...

2009-01-12T14:51:00.000-05:00

fred, what's prickish about a columnist offering advice publicly? That's what columnists do!

wv: spitump - an occasional sight at baseball games?

I think JimCA's comments are important here. If I...

2009-01-12T14:50:00.000-05:00

I think JimCA's comments are important here. If I understand correctly, his comments are similar to Nate's underlying objection to Mankiw's article. The driver in the economy is productivity, which can be thought of as the employment rate times worker productivity. Having 8% or more of the workforce be unproductive is a huge drag on the economy. Tax cuts might carry a large multiplier during good times when capital and cash flow have stronger effects on productivity, but that doesn't mean that the same is true in the current economic environment.

Right now, unemployment and slowing spending are gumming up the economic engine. We want do three things: 1) increase near-term employment, 2) increase near term spending, and 3) build long-term productivity. These are somewhat different goals than we have when the economy isn't in a tailspin.

I'd also point out that it didn't work to give banks money on the grounds that they didn't have money to lend. The reason they didn't have money to lend is that they were using the capital to address problems, both known and feared. Similarly, I'm afraid that the only way to increase spending in this kind of climate is to actually spend the money. Tax breaks don't address the short-term objectives as directly as careful spending does.

Eric, Voinovich not running for reelection also co...

2009-01-12T14:49:00.000-05:00

Eric, Voinovich not running for reelection also could make him impervious to the pleadings of the Minority Whip, so it's impossible to know whether he'll move to the right or left. I think he's more likely to vote according to his conscience now, or perhaps according to what will help him most in his transition from elective to private-sector work, if that's what he plans on doing.

What are these economists? They seem to be a bunc...

2009-01-12T14:12:00.000-05:00

What are these economists? They seem to be a bunch of prima donna press hogs in a beauty contest.

Krugman now offers Obama advice, publicly instead of privately - what a prick:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/01/12/krugman-reich-take-obama_n_157116.html

To derail (slighty) since economic theory isn't my...

2009-01-12T13:37:00.000-05:00

To derail (slighty) since economic theory isn't my strong suit in any sense of the word, but after floundering a bit after the election, these posts are Nate's strongest yet. I love geeky economic fights.

I actually don't know if either of you are intelle...

2009-01-12T13:34:00.000-05:00

I actually don't know if either of you are intellectually dishonest. I did, however, find the analogy to a randomized controlled trial interesting (I'm a doctor, after all). We don't do RCTs to "solve a statistical identification problem". We do them to allow us to which to to compare the results of the intervention, whether it is a new drug or some other therapeutic procedure. Studies done without randomization are much harder to generalize, because of the inherent bias in using an unrandomized sample.

So, if I studied the use of a new antibiotic, in pregnant women, and it worked, I could not infer that the same antibiotic would work in small children without a new RCT. Similarly, if I studied exogenous policy changes in the real world and they worked, that would tell me very little about other kinds of tax cuts.

We've run into the problem of overgeneralization a lot in medicine. I suspect we have similar problems in economics.

OT: Voinovich has announced he will not be running...

2009-01-12T13:17:00.000-05:00

OT: Voinovich has announced he will not be running for reelection in 2010.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0109/17324.html

I'm thinking this will move Ohio up on the list of possible turnovers on Nate's list. But on the other hand, the Dems were counting on Voinovich to help them out on cloture votes, and he is no longer under any pressure to do that.

OT: Voinovich has announced he is going to retire ...

2009-01-12T13:12:00.000-05:00

OT: Voinovich has announced he is going to retire and will not run for reelection in 2010.

It will be interesting to see how this effects Nate's 2010 Senate election rankings.

Just two more thoughts on this:1. Mankiw ignores t...

2009-01-12T13:10:00.000-05:00

Just two more thoughts on this:

1. Mankiw ignores the explicit statement in the Obama position paper:

"We considered multipliers for the case where the federal funds rate remains constant,
rather than the usual case where the Federal Reserve raises the funds rate in response to fiscal
expansion, on the grounds that the funds rate is likely to be at or near its lower bound of zero for
the foreseeable future."

2. It's worth thinking at least twice about the analytical premises of the Romer paper: are deduced legislative intentions actually good determinants of whether tax changes are exogenous or endogenous?

Godd that you came back on this, btw. Mankiw tried to brush you off condescendingly ("a teaching moment"), which is something I think you'll experience further if you continue to engage the professional economics community.

But let's face it: they know a lot, but given the difficulty of economics (think: weather science), like us they're often reduced to metaphor in their arguments. See Mark Thoma's recent, which he quoted you:

"I think the stimulus package is like driving up an icy hill. If you don't have enough momentum from the start and fail to provide enough "stimulus" to get the car over the crest of the hill, you can slide all the way back to the bottom, crashing into things along the way"

wanting purely shovel ready isn't the optimal solu...

2009-01-12T12:36:00.000-05:00

wanting purely shovel ready isn't the optimal solution anyway - as you're only putting money/jobs into construction rather than the design side and you'll hit constraints/price rises due to lack of raw materials etc. In addition, just how many projects have really been designed to that standard when there wasn't money available?

"Somebody said we don't have $400B in shovel ready...

2009-01-12T12:34:00.000-05:00

"Somebody said we don't have $400B in shovel ready projects. I don't believe that."

Why the focus on shovel ready as well - all your doing is meaning that you're hiring extremely heavily in the construction industry short term but not heavily at all in the design/management. You'll then hit constraints due to supply of raw materials etc.

What you actually want is a balanced amount of shovel ready AND a set of non-shovel ready that can be designed and implemented over a few years. A large proportion of the money would still be spent in the next year or two.

Somebody said we don't have $400B in shovel ready ...

2009-01-12T12:15:00.000-05:00

Somebody said we don't have $400B in shovel ready projects. I don't believe that.

Just standardize on one form of high speed light rail and build it to every city of 50K or larger, the same way we did with the Interstate system in the 50s. While we won't literally be shovelling right away in most places, the additional infrastucture (more steel, more power plants) needs would be immediate. And there are certainly shovel areas right now (I'd love to see Rochester, MN connected to Minneapolis, and the plans are already in place).

Not only would this be a gigantic project, well over $400B, but it would quickly save money for people choosing the light rail for commute or instead of flying.

Mankiw's analogy:Imagine if a clinical doctor reas...

2009-01-12T11:47:00.000-05:00

Mankiw's analogy:

Imagine if a clinical doctor reasoned the same way as Silver did. He would say, "All the evidence on the effects of this drug are from randomized drug tests. In my practice, I never randomize treatment of my patients. Therefore, I can safely ignore the results from the randomized experiments."

is fundamentally flawed. A more fair analogy (and still generous to Mankiw's position) might be "Every clinical trial of this drug has been done on adults, and since you are a child, I don't think it is fair to assume that the drug will act the same way on you as it does on adults."

Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Is There a Serious Conservative Argument Against t...

酒店經紀人, 菲梵酒店經紀, 酒店經紀, 禮服酒店上班, 酒店小姐兼職, 便服酒店經紀, ...

キャッシング インプラント クレジットカード 現金化 ダンボール

豆豆聊天室 aio交友愛情館 2008真情寫真 2009真情寫真 aa片免費看 捷克論壇 微風論壇 ...

Silver - The first critique of Mankiw, a professio...

情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,...

In short, using exogenous tax cut numbers in order...

The main problem with Mankiw's reasoning is one th...

Lately I've been happy to sit back and watch price...

Here is a direct link to Zosima's comment.

On Mankiw vs. Nate- Those of you who missed Zosima...

The Gist of the Plan

Tim Ryan to run for Voinovich Seat

fred, what's prickish about a columnist offering a...

I think JimCA's comments are important here. If I...

Eric, Voinovich not running for reelection also co...

What are these economists? They seem to be a bunc...

To derail (slighty) since economic theory isn't my...

I actually don't know if either of you are intelle...

OT: Voinovich has announced he will not be running...

OT: Voinovich has announced he is going to retire ...

Just two more thoughts on this:1. Mankiw ignores t...

wanting purely shovel ready isn't the optimal solu...

"Somebody said we don't have $400B in shovel ready...

Somebody said we don't have $400B in shovel ready ...

Mankiw's analogy:Imagine if a clinical doctor reas...

キャッシングインプラントクレジットカード　現金化ダンボール

豆豆聊天室 aio交友愛情館 2008真情寫真 2009真情寫真 aa片免費看捷克論壇微風論壇 ...