Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Today's Polls, 8/11

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2009-10-08T06:35:38.142-04:00

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2009-09-15T02:03:17.599-04:00

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2009-03-11T23:38:00.001-04:00

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2009-03-11T23:38:00.000-04:00

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2009-02-15T22:08:00.000-05:00

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2009-02-09T02:32:00.000-05:00

The Russians have already broken the cease fire. ...

2008-08-13T11:25:00.000-04:00

The Russians have already broken the cease fire. They need to be shown that naked agression will be resisted. They need to pay a price in the interantional community. Under no circumstances would we want to go to war over this, but they need to be made unwelcome in the family of nations. The globalization that has occuured since the fall of the Soviet Union will make them much more likely to pay heed to appropriate and stern reaction.

Obama of course only fumbled and eventually adopted the Bush-McCain position on this b/c he did not want to expose his flank to attack. He showed no leadersip at all.

The reactionary in me sides with McCain on the Geo...

2008-08-12T22:00:00.000-04:00

The reactionary in me sides with McCain on the Georgia/Russia conflict. The reactionary in me is suspicious of the Russians and quick to rise in condemnation when they appear to do bad things.

The realist in me likes what Obama did better. He appealed for peace and asked all sides to exercise clear judgment, and when the situation continued to escalate and new information indicated that Russia was pushing the offensive too far (into Georgia proper), Obama joined in the international chorus telling Russia to stand down.

Jumping on every action Russia undertakes and slamming them will not contribute to healthy U.S.-Russia relations. They've already suffered under the so-called leadership of still-President Bush, and they don't need to be strained any further. I don't trust Russia, I don't like the Russian government, but I'd rather have them on our side than staunchly against us...which is where McCain would push them.

Does anyone know if the Hays Research poll in Alas...

2008-08-12T21:56:00.000-04:00

Does anyone know if the Hays Research poll in Alaska is reliable?

On a more serious note, Read the Steve Huntley in ...

2008-08-12T20:48:00.000-04:00

On a more serious note, Read the Steve Huntley in today’s Chicago Sun Times Very good statement of the state of play re Georgia. http://www.suntimes.com/news/huntley/1102552,CST-EDT-hunt12.article Pick it up off Real Clear Politics.

On the Georgian War, Obama showed no leadership. He basically followed the lead of the President Bush and John McCain.

McCain in particular showed leadership on this. While Bush seemed to squander the opportunity to confront Putin in Beijing, McCain got out in front and condemned the Russians for their naked act of aggression against our democratic ally and vowed to make them pay, a sentiment echoed at the Bush administration. And a couple of days later by the Obama campaign.

Obama was lead by McCain on this.

He got himself schooled.

Ready to lead?

That's it Mark! Let's go kick their ass!

2008-08-12T20:40:00.000-04:00

That's it Mark! Let's go kick their ass!

Belarus's president is widely acknowledged as havi...

2008-08-12T20:03:00.000-04:00

Belarus's president is widely acknowledged as having been reelected illegitimately. Some have accused him of being a Russian puppet. My working theory is that Belarus hasn't yet realized that the Soviet Union collapsed almost twenty years ago.

What did Belarus do? Tell me! I will go over the...

2008-08-12T19:51:00.000-04:00

What did Belarus do? Tell me! I will go over there and kick their ass!!!

The invasion of Iraq was no more "necessary" than ...

2008-08-12T19:41:00.000-04:00

The invasion of Iraq was no more "necessary" than the invasions of Zimbabwe, Libya, Sudan, North Korea, Russia, the People's Republic of China, Turkmenistan, Pakistan, and Belarus. Still waiting for those.

There are lots of bad people in this world. Some people think that means that America should go beat them all up to save all the good people. Those people are naive.

Don't be naive.

Mark, In war there are necessary evils, but we fig...

2008-08-12T19:31:00.000-04:00

Mark, In war there are necessary evils, but we fight them to suppress greater ones.

PSmith cannot marshall a single argument to counter that Obama is an extremist on abortion, an absoulutist who would refuse medical atention to babies born alive after a botched abortion because it might in some way undermine Roe v. Wade. Tell me where that is not extreme? Or barbaric? Or murderous?

Isn't it all made worse by the fact that millions of African American lives have been stilled in the womb in the greatest genocide in human history?

Stop treating abortion as a sacrament and recognize it for the evil that it is. And recognize that the culture of death that underpins it (and the death penalty -- which found a new fan in Obama this year) is what is degrading our society.

PSmith, show me how Obama is not an extremist on abortion. I call you out!

Hilarious. Trust a GOP fanboy to completely miss t...

2008-08-12T18:18:00.000-04:00

Hilarious. Trust a GOP fanboy to completely miss the point. My point is that it is easy to take a few talking points and twist them to come up with extreme statements such as your ludicrous misportrayal of Obama's position on abortion. I'm not going to engage you on it because I know you're not interested in the truth, but only in regurgitating conservative blog hate speech. If you're truly interested go do some proper research.

As for Saddam, yes, he was evil. I am so glad that he was armed and trained by Reagan, as was Bin Laden. Great long term judgment.

And no, I don't actually accuse Bush of infanticide. I don't need to. I accuse him of intentionally fighting the wrong war and giving a free pass to the murderers who actually attacked our country on 9/11. History will be the judge.

The U.S. is complicit in the murder of Iraqi child...

2008-08-12T18:10:00.000-04:00

The U.S. is complicit in the murder of Iraqi children.

I have an American flag hanging on my bedroom wall and I'm center-right. But I'm smart enough to know what a bomb dropped on a house does to the children playing on the floor inside.

It's a logical fallacy to translate the statement that the U.S. caused the deaths of Iraqi children into a defense of a vile dictator. No one is arguing that Saddam was a nice old man - quit acting like the anti-war crowd are apologists for the Ba'athist regime.

You forget, P Smith, that Barack Hussein, I mean S...

2008-08-12T17:25:00.000-04:00

You forget, P Smith, that Barack Hussein, I mean Saddam Obama, dipped children in acid and gassed them with biological weapons.

Yoru suggestion that the US is complicit in the murder of Iraqi children exposes you for the anti-American, left wing zealot that you are.

You are the reason that people do not vote for Obama. You dare to speak what he cannot.

That said, please tell me which lies I wrote in my prior post responding to Dan.

Oh dear, PeteKent demonstrates to all and sundry j...

2008-08-12T17:16:00.000-04:00

Oh dear, PeteKent demonstrates to all and sundry just why America is sick and tired of the Republican lie machine.

Do you seriously think that anyone actually believes a word of what you say?

We all know that the GOP is the party of infanticide. Iraqi children are children too (although probably not in your Fox News fantasy world).

Kindly explain to me, Dan, your remark: "Calling ...

2008-08-12T16:43:00.000-04:00

Kindly explain to me, Dan, your remark: "Calling Obama's abortion stance 'extremist' is going to cement your reputation as a troll."

Is there a less extreme position than Senator Obama's? Perhaps someone has called for permissible infanticide six months post utero.

He is for the murder of babies in the womb -- partial birth abortion where the baby's skull is stabbed with scissors in the birth canal and the brains are sucked out to end its life swiftly and ease passage of the corpse into the pan.

He was the only legislator in the IL State senate to speak out against the Born Alive Infant Protection Act. Obama says he opposed the Act because he feared it might imperil Roe v. Wade. But if Roe v. Wade did allow infanticide or murder, which is what letting a tiny baby die of neglect or killing it outright amounts to, why would he not want that court decision reviewed and amended to outlaw infanticide?

Is the right to an abortion so sacrosanct to Obama that killing by neglect or snuffing out of the life of tiny babies outside the womb must be protected if necessary to preserve that right?

Obama is an abortion absolutist. How that makes me a troll is beyond me.

What it makes the two of you is complicit in murder.

I agree with JohnNYC. I think Virginia and Indiana...

2008-08-12T16:27:00.000-04:00

I agree with JohnNYC. I think Virginia and Indiana are both potentially winnable (partly due to changing demographics), but Obama needs to focus on holding down or expanding his leads in Michigan, Iowa, Pennsylvania, Colorado, New Mexico, Ohio, and New Hampshire. If he takes those states, he wins the election even if he doesn't flip Virginia, Indiana, Florida, Missouri, or Nevada.

Obama could do with some pre- or post-RNC rallies alongside Rep. Keith Ellison in Minnesota, if he wants a good chance at strong Democratic Arab-American turnout in Michigan's urban areas and wants to make sure his lead in Minnesota doesn't erode (I don't think it will, but completely blowing off a state that your opponent is pursuing aggressively is a bad idea...which is why I think Indiana is still in play).

Prof424:I couldn't disagree more with your propose...

2008-08-12T15:58:00.000-04:00

Prof424:

I couldn't disagree more with your proposed state by state strategy.

Pouring resources into Florida is a waste of Obama's people. Barring an exogenous event, he's not going to carry the state. I'd put some money into advertising there, but just to make McCain spend. I wouldn't flood the state with people but would send them to Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa and Michigan.

I would never say that PA, IA or MN are "winnable" for McCain . I do think, though, that he has a chance in MI because of recent events in Detroit, because the Arab American vote cannot be taken for granted and because, I know folks don't like to hear this, Mitt Romney will help him there, whether or not he is on the ticket.

I also think that Missouri is a waste of resources, other than to spend to keep McCain spending there. Virginia is our favorite pipe dream every year, but we never win it and we won't again this year without Kaine (or Webb) on the ticket. Again, invest to keep McCain honest. Ditto for Montana and Indiana. We ain't gonna win there, even with Birch Bayh's son on the ticket.

You're right that NC is a stretch; Johnny Edwards' shennanigans just made it even more so. We're not going to win Georgia unless he puts Sam Nunn on the ticket and even then it would be a problem.

Obama has to focus, focus, focus. He has to hold the Kerry states (especially NH, MI and PA, the latter being fairly safe in my opinion) and pick up Iowa. Then he has to secure New Mexico, go all out to win Colorado and keep Nevada in play as long as possible, maybe picking it up. If that scenario isn't viable then the other states that you mention will be even further out of reach and even greater wastes of money and people. Anything over those 273 EV's is gravy and putting getting them at the center of his efforts and spending is a waste of Obama's money, people and energy unless something occurs to change the underlying dynamic of this race.

I firmly believe that we're going to win this thing, but Obama's inability to break out in the polls has convinced me that it's going to be a battle. We're not getting anymore than Ronnie Reagan's 1980, 50.7% of the Popular Vote and we're not carrying states we haven't carried in decades (or without a Southern Candidate at the top of the ticket) unless "something happens," and we shouldn't bet on that.

Pete -Calling Obama's abortion stance "extremist" ...

2008-08-12T15:40:00.000-04:00

Pete -

Calling Obama's abortion stance "extremist" is going to cement your reputation as a troll.

Humanist:Humanist wrote: The point is that it is s...

2008-08-12T15:26:00.000-04:00

Humanist:

Humanist wrote: The point is that it is silly to poll geographic units. What we should really aim to poll are demographic units.

That is exactly what I am trying to say in my longer post (just saw your comment). Geographic polls, even organized around arbitray state boundaries, can not capture, this early, what is happening.

To use my language, the national polls begin to provide the contours of how the nation is feeling by the end of August (or two weeks later this year because of the late conventions), which contours are then reflected in the movement of undecided and swing voters across the country in September (late September this year).

To use your language, random demographic polls will reveal the underlying dynamics that will determine how undecided and swing voters will break in September.

This happens in election after election when an election is competitively contested, as this year's indeed will be. It did not hold in 1964, 1972, 1984 and 1996 when the results were foregone conclusions by the conventions.

PeteKent,"Finally his much ballyhooed Christianity...

2008-08-12T15:12:00.000-04:00

PeteKent,

"Finally his much ballyhooed Christianity will play poorly as well. Under Sharia law Obama was born a Muslim (the father's lineage). Anyone who converts from the Faith is considered an Apostate and should be put to death."

1)The vast majority of Muslims in this country do not care what sharia law says;

2)It's quite possible those few that do care what it says would vote for Obama, for the simple reason that they hate Bush/McCain foreign polict far more than Obama's;

3)as you well know, no Muslim cleric, even in places like Saudi Arabia, has endorsed this particular horrifically stupid GOP talking point.

The most important one of these three, however, is point 1. The reason Michigan Arabs will likely turn out for Obama is because a large swath of the GOP takes horrifically stupid talking points such as this one seriously, completely uncaring of how ridiculously insulting it sounds to mainstream Muslims.

Up next: Obama won't get the Jewish vote because Jews hate Muslims and resent Obama's hijacking of the Jew-controlled media?