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HREF="http://78kb.com/" REL="nofollow">情趣</A>,<A HREF="http://78pl.com/" REL="nofollow">情趣</A>,<A HREF="http://78bk.com/" REL="nofollow">情趣</A>,<A HREF="http://omb1.com/" REL="nofollow">情趣</A>,<A HREF="http://6lv9.com/" REL="nofollow">情趣</A>,<A HREF="http://6lv6.com/" REL="nofollow">情趣</A>,<A HREF="http://6ea9.com/" REL="nofollow">情趣</A>,<A HREF="http://6ea6.com/" REL="nofollow">情趣</A>,<A HREF="http://6ck9.com/" REL="nofollow">情趣</A>,<A HREF="http://6ck6.com/" REL="nofollow">情趣</A>,<A HREF="http://0lv0.com/" REL="nofollow">情趣</A>,<A HREF="http://0ea0.com/" REL="nofollow">情趣</A>,<A HREF=信次http://www.blogger.com/profile/02481689321253585436noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4257917002416684161.post-80127459724172168722008-05-06T17:53:35.683-04:002008-05-06T17:53:35.683-04:00Wolle,<BR/><BR/>You're "kind of" right. Let's take an example. Northampton is listed as O +30. That works out to 65-35 in favor of Obama. If Clinton "wins 4 percent", as you put it, she ends up with 39% and it will be a 61-39 which would be good enough for her to feel good about her chances. But if it's 61-39, it's O +22 (which is how she gains 8). Does this explain it for you?Paul Bradfordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05909980933490841056noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4257917002416684161.post-23280914668633594032008-05-06T16:58:16.148-04:002008-05-06T16:58:16.148-04:00<B>For Clinton to win North Carolina, she'll need to be beating these numbers by about 8 percent across the board.</B><BR/><BR/>I think that's wrong. If Clinton wins 4 percent it's obvious that Obama would loose 4 percent. This would end in a 50:50 tie.Wollehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06583245243759066078noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4257917002416684161.post-75745307107615447142008-05-06T14:02:45.022-04:002008-05-06T14:02:45.022-04:00DisplayName:<BR/>That is the only bad thing on this site: Poblano never answers Emails.<BR/>I did the same thing three weeks ago or so and did not get an answer until now.Rasmushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15988553477224040059noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4257917002416684161.post-63648655882927028912008-05-06T11:38:35.605-04:002008-05-06T11:38:35.605-04:00Thanks for all your hard work ... I hope some network hires you instead of a talking head who says something as silly as, "Hillary wore a yellow suit again today" or "Obama looks tired" and thinks it's an astute analysis.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4257917002416684161.post-43551284571141049792008-05-06T11:31:23.624-04:002008-05-06T11:31:23.624-04:00Just a quick thank you. This site must take a great deal of time and energy. It is very important and valuable, and your effort is very much appreciatedbrooklynkevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06354266265406956690noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4257917002416684161.post-69361141308240643682008-05-06T11:31:20.154-04:002008-05-06T11:31:20.154-04:00As a North Carolinian I feel this is pretty accurate, however I think that Cumberland will go Clinton, and some costal counties go Obama.. Overall I think he wins by 5-8.GPSnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4257917002416684161.post-18055836181362978082008-05-06T10:45:06.996-04:002008-05-06T10:45:06.996-04:00Poblano, just sent you an email about something rel. urgent at the 538dotcom email address. Could you please check your email and perhaps respond as soon as you're able to? TIA -nlDisplayNamehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11262447045125528858noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4257917002416684161.post-12956530300093303562008-05-06T10:41:52.980-04:002008-05-06T10:41:52.980-04:00Bogey,<BR/><BR/>I don't know for certain, but what I *think* takes place is that early voting results are not counted toward the "percentage of precincts reporting" calculation. That was my recollection about what happened in Texas, anyway, although I'm sure it varies from state to state.Poblanohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12585231813495339389noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4257917002416684161.post-13470455713372545062008-05-06T09:40:08.676-04:002008-05-06T09:40:08.676-04:00Poblano,<BR/><BR/>Do you know how the early voting will be weighted when the early returns roll in? <BR/><BR/>For example, when the polls first close, will the news orgs show "0% reporting", or will it be adjusted according to the early voting percentage?Bogeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12126032631658295140noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4257917002416684161.post-10249872380026053902008-05-06T08:44:22.364-04:002008-05-06T08:44:22.364-04:00Watauga County, one of the cruxes of CD-05, is listed as O+4. Obama won the county straw poll here something like 75-25, and that was just out in the county and for Boone. Watauga County has an amazing grassroots progressive organization, but that straw poll did not even include Appalachian State, where the young dems and students for Obama have been organizing for months. <BR/><BR/>I predict Watauga County goes Obama +15 or more.<BR/><BR/>Happy voting NC!<BR/>peace,<BR/>JWfaithfullhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18217009909144480846noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4257917002416684161.post-81723696995521987782008-05-06T07:17:11.364-04:002008-05-06T07:17:11.364-04:00So this should be an indiator if early results will lead to a narrow or a big Obama win?<BR/>So when we see him winning Lee we can exspect this to be a good Obama day?<BR/>Also, what is the MoE of this?Rasmushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15988553477224040059noreply@blogger.com