Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: How Did White People Vote? How Did Rich and Poor ...

I think the question as "would white people vote f...

2009-08-26T16:57:14.726-04:00

I think the question as "would white people vote for a black president?" is fundamentally flawed.

Try "would white democrats vote for a black democrat" and the answer is, overwhelmingly, yes.

Will white republicans vote for a black republican? If state elections are any measure then the answer is yes.

But you can still be white, racist and republican or democrat while you're pulling the lever for your black candidate. I wouldn't put too much stock in how people vote for candidates in carefully choreographed pageants.

"WTF is up with Idaho, Wyoming and Utah? Is the Mo...

2009-05-14T11:07:00.000-04:00

"WTF is up with Idaho, Wyoming and Utah? Is the Mormon brainwash that powerful?"

The Mormon factor only really comes into effect in Utah, as only eastern Idaho (the portion immediately north of Utah) is heavily Mormon, and Mormons barely make up a double-digit percentage in Wyoming.

What's going on in Wyoming and Idaho is that their populations are overwhelmingly rural and white. A lot of the other states with low overall population densities are either more racially diverse, or they have an uneven population distribution internally, with the rural voters partially offset by voters in a moderate-to-large city or two.

What's happened in Utah — which used to be a swing state — is that when the Reagan Coalition started using social issues to win elections, the Utah Republican Party jumped on the bandwagon and actively branded themselves as the superior choice for Mormons. The DNC, meanwhile, abandoned the state to funnel resources into states that were still swing states, which left the Utah Democratic Party without the resources to properly counter the Republican PR machine.

It appears the only useful statistical analysis on...

2009-05-13T15:03:00.000-04:00

It appears the only useful statistical analysis on this post is the minority swing in vote. If whites vote McCain wins. If minorities vote then Obama wins. Does not appear income has too much to do with it.

@Russell - Working class southern whites are NOT o...

2009-05-12T21:19:00.000-04:00

@Russell - Working class southern whites are NOT overwhelmingly voting against their best interests. The ratio between federal tax receipts and federal tax expenditures has been radically skewed in favor of the so-called "conservative" states for quite some time now, particularly when Republicans are in office. Southern states (except Florida and Texas) overwhelmingly pay less tax and receive more from the federal government than any other region in the country except the Mountain West.

Out of the eighteen states that are net contributors to the federal treasury, only one voted for McCain in the 2008 election (Texas). Every other state that voted for McCain is a net drain on the national treasury.

It is exceptionally clear what working-class southern whites are voting for: they're voting for their gubmint handouts. I guess that's why they call them "Red States."

Statler said “WTF is up with Idaho, Wyoming and Ut...

2009-05-12T13:06:00.000-04:00

Statler said
“WTF is up with Idaho, Wyoming and Utah? Is the Mormon brainwash that powerful?”

Aside from the Mormon population and one-party rule, I think whiteness accounts for the vote distribution in Idaho, Wyoming, and Utah. According to 2000 census

Idaho 97% white 0.65% black
Wyoming 96% white 1.0% black
Utah 95% white 1.1% black

US 74% white 13% black

Hispanic is included in the white statistics. Excluded, Hispanic runs 7.5/6/8.6%, US 15%. Large (not very) minorities are American Indian and Asian.

My point is that these three states could not have seen a large bloc turnout of motivated black voters intent on striking at the race barrier, because a large bloc of black voters simply doesn‘t exist in these states.

OT Fun Fact: Alaska is 69.3% white. Todd Palin, his children, and his grandchildren are not counted in this figure. They would be counted in the 7% mixed-race category and are thus eligible for government health service. Socialist? You betcha.

So, poor, white Southerners vote for Republicans. ...

2009-05-12T10:38:00.000-04:00

So, poor, white Southerners vote for Republicans. Pathetic.

John, As a white woman with a family income of 15...

2009-05-12T12:18:00.000-04:00

John, As a white woman with a family income of 150K who votes for Democrats, I consider your comment pathetic.

@Andrew: a fine fine improvement on the original ...

2009-05-12T10:35:00.000-04:00

@Andrew: a fine fine improvement on the original -- thank to Yair as well.

I agree with those who propose putting the EV totals at the bottom of each map.

I also agree with those who are interested in some of the interactions (e.g., the "poorest" group in your maps is probably also the youngest).

Question: I'd like to see maps by generation (age cohort), regardless of incomes. Where do the "generations" divide (cf. Nate's discussion of party ID by age)? 18-29 vs. 30-39 vs. 40-49 vs. 50-59 vs. 60+?

Also, do you have enough Hispanics to break out the ages for that group, if only in the aggregate (not by state, though perhaps by region -- CA, SWest, FL, NY-NJ)?

Thanks for continuing to post interesting original analyses.

@John Also poor whites and Hispanics, as well as ...

2009-05-12T11:54:00.000-04:00

@John

Also poor whites and Hispanics, as well as many whites making over $200,000, and as well as most other non-whites in this country at all income levels. And this is "voted for Obama", not "vote for democrats".

Being New Mexican, I found the breakdown fascinating - NM went blue in a big way this year, and that was only possible because of Hispanic votes. Being a minority-majority state, the interests of whites as a collective block doesn't work, except on occasion to hold small offices. Yet having a slim Hispanic majority means that cross-racial coalitions are what's needed. In NM in 2008, the relative moderateness of NM whites (who tilt slightly republican, and only rarely go strong that way) combined with the general center-left bent of catholic voters (which is, by and large, how Hispanics tend to vote), and the state went overwhelmingly blue.

Also, I'm willing to bet NM's population is much poorer than most states, so the bottom two income brackets are, relative to other states, disproportionately strong in elections.

John said... So poor, black people vote for Democ...

2009-05-12T14:00:00.000-04:00

John said...
So poor, black people vote for Democrats. Pathetic.

You are correct. I mean, why wouldn't they vote for the party of cross-burners, sheet-wearing, angry southern white men with tokens (Steele)???

Pathetic.

great stuff...it amazes me how working class south...

2009-05-12T15:08:00.000-04:00

great stuff...it amazes me how working class southern whites overwhelmingly vote against their economic interests...and big props to amanda @ 3:34 PM for all the math....

ps..not to diss hi and ak, but their combined populations are less than 1% of the u.s. total...plus hawaii votes blue by a big margin in all groups and alaska does the opposite..no surprises worth teasing out of the date, i suspect...

John said, "..so poor black people voted for Democ...

2009-05-12T15:07:00.000-04:00

John said, "..so poor black people voted for Democrats. Pathetic."

I'd like to know from this person what is pathetic about poor black people voting for one of their own. a black man who apparently cares for poor people. If you are not a black person please tell me what is pathetic about what you do not understand and if you are a black person tell me why it's less pathetic to be ignorant!

As H Jay indicates, the age factor may overwhelm c...

2009-05-12T13:27:00.000-04:00

As H Jay indicates, the age factor may overwhelm certain categories. My understanding is that Obama/Biden won the youth vote, especially the college vote by a large amount and these folks are mostly low (to no) income.

So poor, black people vote for Democrats. Pathetic...

2009-05-12T00:51:00.000-04:00

So poor, black people vote for Democrats. Pathetic.

Poor Republican whites seem to correlate very stro...

2009-05-11T23:21:00.000-04:00

Poor Republican whites seem to correlate very strongly with religion. Red is confined to the Mormon belt in the west, and the Bible Belt in the south. New York is less blue than its neighbors-- perhaps left over from its early Mormon roots!

t.dr.k.e.s. said... A solid majority for Obama in ...

2009-05-11T22:17:00.000-04:00

t.dr.k.e.s. said...
A solid majority for Obama in California and New York probably cancels out most, if not all, of those pink and red states in between.

A quick look at the top 101 of the Forbes 500 richest Americans seems to back you up.

Of the top 101 that Forbes lists as richest, 23 live in New York state, 22 live in California or just under 45%. Texas is next at 8, then followed by 5 in Illinois and 4 in Washington state.

By my count, more than 50% of the 101 richest Americans live in just 4 states that all voted for Obama by large majorities - 54 live in NY, CA, IL, and WA.

This is not to say that all the richest Americans voted for Obama, but it does show that there is a great disparity of wealth across the US, with great pockets of wealth in New York and California, with smaller pockets spread in the rest of the US.

Mike in Maryland

My Blogger ID is http://www.blogger.com/profile/02848893412251095965

Grog, Actually, the social welfare programs Democ...

2009-05-11T21:29:00.000-04:00

Grog,

Actually, the social welfare programs Democrats supported from LBJ through Carter did do alot for lower-income folks. It was only after Reagan slashed funding for the job training programs and housing funds included in the Great Society that the program collapsed.

The GOP is to blame for the failure of the programs they slashed in 1980, them and Blue Dogs like Clinton that went along with that crap. The Liberals were doing just fine until you came along. And we'll do even better once you're gone.

The more you try to obstruct progress, the more the electorate sees that. A hungry person is only made hungrier by the promise of food, and angrier when he sees your hand blocking the people who want to feed him. And a whole lot of angry, hungry people are gonna come howling for your blood in November 2010 unless you get the fuck out of the way.

I really wouldn't bet money on Charlie Crist, not ...

2009-05-11T21:15:00.000-04:00

I really wouldn't bet money on Charlie Crist, not after this movie hits the big screen this summer

A tiny bit off topic but relevant to today. I wo...

2009-05-11T22:22:00.000-04:00

A tiny bit off topic but relevant to today.

I would really like to see a breakdown of preference for single payer Health care vs Insurance only and blended coverage with a Medicare opt in.

There is a lot of fog out there mostly generated by Insurance companies, but the only refutations are also partisan. The data about what actually works is well documented, but the actual support numbers seem very skewed by whay I am seeing.

terrydarc said: "Repubs are becoming a small regi...

2009-05-11T18:45:00.000-04:00

terrydarc said:

"Repubs are becoming a small regional party dominated by whites."

Which makes no sense. What have Dems done for blacks for the past 50 years? They've created welfare states in ghettos from LA to Detroit to New York and everywhere in between. The black inter city in America is a national tragedy, but blacks continue to elect Democrat leadership who continue to lead them down the road of government inuduced poverty with little chance of ever escaping.

Dems have also somehow convinced the union worker that they have their backs. They don't. Look at the state of unions today. Union plants are closing across the country because they have priced themselves out of the marketplace.

Republicans need to hold their ground and wait this administration out as I believe the Obama policies will fail. They will then have their chance to sell their platform and win voters back.

chilcoot, I don't think the reason Alaska and Hawa...

2009-05-11T19:54:00.000-04:00

chilcoot, I don't think the reason Alaska and Hawaii are excluded is "because they don't share a border with any other state"; Alaska and Hawaii are not included in most election polling for a number of reasons, so they were probably not included in the data set Andrew was using.

Orin: Obama wins the lower 4/5 income brackets on...

2009-05-11T16:22:00.000-04:00

Orin: Obama wins the lower 4/5 income brackets on the left side electorally. On the right side, he loses the upper 4/5 electorally. 20-40k (at least 281-257, if RI, DE, and NJ are blue...Due to the loss of NY), loses 40-75k (despite winning CO, especially due to losing MI, PA, and MD).

How is it that if only white people who made over ...

2009-05-11T17:00:00.000-04:00

How is it that if only white people who made over $150,000 voted, California goes blue, but if only the whites from the $75,000-150,000 bracket voted, it goes red? That conclusion looks a little fishy to me.

I was struck by the increasing polarization betwee...

2009-05-11T17:32:00.000-04:00

I was struck by the increasing polarization between left and right columns as you move down the page to lower incomes. After thinking about it, though, I suspect that it's just that whites make up a greater portion of the overall sample in the top maps, so there's very little evident polarization. Toward the bottom of the page, the whites are almost certainly a minority, so the polarization shows up.

I agree with Dan *, that would be useful. The d...

2009-05-11T17:27:00.000-04:00

I agree with Dan *, that would be useful.

The data I'd like to see would be, under each map, the percent of all voters that it includes, and the electoral vote count that would result for that group. Wouldn't be too hard, hopefully.