Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Today's Polls, 8/26

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2009-09-22T02:32:31.372-04:00

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You'd be amazed at how many city people think Huck...

2008-08-27T18:43:00.000-04:00

You'd be amazed at how many city people think Huckabee is actually quite cool in his own right. Think Gomer Pyle, who in any debate could always be relied on to get the best of his seemingly more sophisticated colleagues.

8/27/2008A message from the Pete Kent school of “d...

2008-08-27T14:41:00.000-04:00

8/27/2008

A message from the Pete Kent school of “data” analysis:

Obama was up 3% over yesterday in the Gallup Daily tracking poll. This is a clear indicator of a major bounce from the convention. And since the poll was completed before Hillary's speech, expect an even bigger jump tomorrow. Obama ought to be up by 8% by the end of the week.

“Cherry-picking is the way to go.”
“Data? Who needs data? At the Pete Kent school we don't worry about their data, we invent our own.”

Editorial comment: It's all noise. Nothing will be meaningful until a week after both conventions.

"Virginia Conservative said... I'm just sick of...

2008-08-27T14:20:00.000-04:00

"Virginia Conservative said...

I'm just sick of the post mortem from the Democrats always being "We lost cause Americans are stupid/Diebold stole the election!"

When Republicans lose, you notice, the post mortem is "We lost because our opponents ran a better campaign" instead."

Garbage. When Gregoire won Washginton governor's race in '04, the Republicans screamed fraud. When Tim Johnson won his Senate race in '02 by a close margin (not as close as Florida '00), National Review put him on the cover with the word "Fraud" in big red letters. And in 2000 itself--and if you don't think that was stolen, go read Greg Palast's "The Best Democracy Money Can Buy," then we'll talk--the Republicans were screaming--and assaulting ballot workers--to prevent ballots from being counted.

Nate, you gotta watch this site--the trolls are beginning to detract from the conversation (funny how mule was unable to actually point to a mirror image of this site on the right. Try again, loser.)

Delaware is now listed amond the top 15 tipping po...

2008-08-27T13:20:00.000-04:00

Delaware is now listed amond the top 15 tipping point states? After the Biden selection? Higher than Oregon, Indiana, Wisconsin?

Doesn't sound right.

Pleased to find that am not the only one scribblin...

2008-08-27T08:46:00.000-04:00

Pleased to find that am not the only one scribbling away with EVs as of yesterday

Base

BO 200 - JM 182

With likely wins [3-6up]

BO 238 - JM 197
PA/IA/MN - NC

Leaves Toss ups [less than 3% lead]

BO 273 - JM 265

MI/NM/NH/CO - VA/NV/OH/MT/FL

BO wins without Ohio, Virginia or Nevada.

My guess would be JM wins NH though. giving 269-269.....

In order to wrap my mind around all the statistics...

2008-08-27T02:44:00.000-04:00

In order to wrap my mind around all the statistics I setup a spreadsheet to organize it in a way I can understand:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/EC-Forecast/files

I came up with this analysis:
Solid Obama: 14 states, 183 votes
Lean Obama: 7 states, 77 votes
Swing: 5 states, 51 votes
Lean McCain: 8 states, 78 votes
Solid McCain: 17 states, 149 votes

Obama can reach 270 EC votes by holding onto solid and lean states
(260) and adding toss-up state Virginia (13) or toss-up states
Colorado (9) + New Hampshire (4). This strategy doesn't require winning Ohio.

Obama/Biden-D -starts out with 190evMcCain/Romney-...

2008-08-27T02:29:00.000-04:00

Obama/Biden-D -starts out with 190ev
McCain/Romney-R starts out with 189ev.
Obama/Biden-D is favored to win.
1)CA
2)CT
3)DC
4)DE
5)HI
6)IL
7)MA
8)MD
9)ME
10)NJ
11)NY
12)OR
13)RI
14)VT
15)WA

McCain-Romney-R is favored to win
1)AK
2)AL
3)AR
4)AZ
5)GA
6)ID
7)IN
8)KS
9)KY
10)LA
11)MS
12)MT
13)NC
14)ND
15)NE
16)OK
17)SC
18)SD
19)TN
20)TX
21)UT
22)WV
23)WY

The battleground states
1)CO
2)FL
3)IA
4)MI
5)MN
6)MO
7)NH
8)NM
9)NV
10)OH
11)PA
12)VA
13)WI

Biden(DE)delivers PA to Obama. 211ev.
Competitive US Senate Races in battleground states- which Democrats are favored to win.
VA(Warner)
NM(Udall)
NH(Shaheen)
CO(Udall)
242ev.
Obama wins IA,MN,WI- midwestern states with strong Anti War populations- home of Harkin,Wellstone,and Feingold.
269ev.
plus NV.
274ev with out MI and OH.

People keep mentioning Kasich. I have Republican f...

2008-08-26T21:03:00.000-04:00

People keep mentioning Kasich. I have Republican friends in Ohio and they are all convinced (depsite the recent marriage and kids) that Kasich is gay.... which is, of course, fatal.

PPP is a notorious Democrat pollster, Fillstro. T...

2008-08-26T21:02:00.000-04:00

PPP is a notorious Democrat pollster, Fillstro. That poll is clearly meant to influence contributions and to a smaller degree enthusiasm. If Obama is going to win NC, something is going to have to carry him across the finish line. He will have no coattails there. He most likely will lose by 10 pts

Mr. Insight makes a good point. The electoral horserace favored Kerry throughout. Last time around it was gay marriage, now its Barack Obama. Something always brings the voters to the polls.

DCM: Nate got the exclusive!

VC: To me Huck only makes sense as an orator. He brings nothing else to the ticket demographically that is not already locked down. Saddleback began the trend and the infanticide meme will dog Obama throughout the campaign. Newsweek is out with a serious think piece of how confused and contradictory Obama’s positions on abortion are. Pelosi has been called out by the Catholic Church for spewing falsehoods about church teaching on the beginning of life. The Archbishop of Denver has suggested that Biden refrain from taking communion given his pro-choice views. Catholics are a big tent bunch and lean right of center, like the nation, but the Evangelicals they are monolithic on this. McCain does not need Huckabee. Conversely he does not need the distraction of Romney either. Pawlenty would be the compromise choice. Portman would be the interesting surprise. As would Kasich (Naomiiii)

Dogfight bw Rachel Maddow and Pat Buchanan on MSNBC!

I predict that both national trackers will move ag...

2008-08-26T20:54:00.000-04:00

I predict that both national trackers will move against Obama again tomorrow (Wednesday) morning.

Only 3 national polls have been taken so far entirely after the Biden pick. CNN showed Obama losing 7 points from last month into a tie. Rasmussen showed Obama losing 3 points overnight into a tie. Gallup (that includes cellphones) showed Obama losing two points overnight and now 2 points behind for the first time since the primaries ended.

Republicans have gained ground between August 26 and the November election in every election since 1976 (except in 1992 and 2000). So McCain is now well-positioned for an eventual win, especially in light of Barack's poor debate performances against Hillary and former mentor Jeremiah's tell-all memoir coming out in October.

McCain should pick John Kasich or Jodi Rell (Gov. ...

2008-08-26T20:53:00.000-04:00

McCain should pick John Kasich or Jodi Rell (Gov. of CT). Linda Lingle (Gov. of Haw.) is also pretty good, although a RINO.

Everyone else has major flaws. Romney would deflate the evangelical vote. Portman has Bush Administration dripping for every pore. And Palin, my God, that would be an idiotic choice. She would cut the legs right out of McCain's best argument against Obama, his lack of experience.

JACKSONthat's right. I heard he wants Pat Buchana...

2008-08-26T20:48:00.000-04:00

JACKSON

that's right. I heard he wants Pat Buchanan's job - but as a FAUX pundit.

Does Huckabee even want to be VP?Last I heard he w...

2008-08-26T20:43:00.000-04:00

Does Huckabee even want to be VP?

Last I heard he was interested in becoming the celebrity that Obama is accused of being...

PETEthose are just tiresome commentary posts.how m...

2008-08-26T20:41:00.001-04:00

PETE

those are just tiresome commentary posts.

how many other blogs have you spammed this latest space-wasting screed ?

please give it a rest... take a nap maybe.

VACon,I still don't see why Huckabee is a better c...

2008-08-26T20:41:00.000-04:00

VACon,

I still don't see why Huckabee is a better choice than someone who would really go for the jugular among indys and undecideds (maybe there isn't a good VP for that). McCain brings those in in any significant number and the election's his.

That said, Huckabee certainly brings certain strengths to the ticket, no denying that, and I don't think he will do any significant harm among close states he needs to win (OH, FL, VA come to mind).

Tooo many bloggers here and on other sites compare...

2008-08-26T20:38:00.001-04:00

Tooo many bloggers here and on other sites compare how McCain is presently doing in each state with how that state turned out for Dumbya in November 2004 but that is the wrong way to look at it.

If you check electoral-vote.com's This Day In 2004 page each day you'll see a writeup of the state polling back in 2004 at a comparable point in time.

Right now McCain is doing better than Bush was on August 26, 2004 in most states, including FL and MO.

I agree with Nate: the trackers tell us nothing ab...

2008-08-26T20:38:00.000-04:00

I agree with Nate: the trackers tell us nothing about the Convention, only about the period leading up to it and a whiff of its promise last night.

Nothing in the numbers as noted as would encourage Biden to think he was the popular choice. But face it, unless it was Hillary a huge number of delegates and voters, some say up to 50%, are going to be pissed.

So don’t blame Biden.

Blame Barack.

He had his chance to pick Hillary Clinton and have a week long unity fest.

Instead we have the drama of Democratic navel-gazing. It’s all about THEM. And nothing about the people.

Keith Matthew and Chris Olbermann are admitting there is no unity. Chuck Todd is pee-ing all over Barack’s appeal to rural voters. The question, Matthews raises is whether she was just a parking space for an anti-Obama animus? It would be foolish to think that Hillary could turn many of these voters, particularly with a convention speech. She caint be a' droppin’ her “Gs” and all. Bill might have driven his pick up down those country roads and talked some sense to these folk. But I doubt he will, more than a token few times. Like twice.

Nate is clever to point out that Biden is not to blame and that any veep pick would have suffered. It may yet be that Biden was the best of the field.

I think Nate tries too hard to spin the Quin polls. The biggest takeaway is the six point favorable shift to McCain in FL. Further confirmation that the Obama media campaign thus far has been ineffective. Ineffective in FL against an empty goal. McCain spent not a nickel over the period while Obama spent millions and McCain managed to reverse the deficit and take a four point lead, a swing, as noted, of SIX Points. That’s big. Meanwhile in OH and PA. No movement. OH a near tie, PA comfortably for Obama. It’s early for the battlegrounds. PA and OH have been contested to a duel. FL was simply a rejection of Obama. The elderly?

Nate finds encouragement that these polls outdid his own margins and therefore he is cheered. Of late there has been talk here of a pro-Obama adjustment in the model. I would not take much stock in such modest out performance as observed here.

I think Hill will give a good speech and Bill will make a great one. Obama has been pressured to show America the beef and he won’t dare do the “staying of the rising of the oceans” stick. The celebrity meme having taken hold, Obama will be forced to tone down the rhetorical flourishes. It isn’t so much what he says, it’s the effect he has on the crowd. He simply cannot afford to have them swooning or flicking their Bics.

By Friday the story will be how disappointing his speech was. McCain may even want to delay the announcement of his running mate (Rob Portman), just so as not to step on the story of Obama’s fall from grace.

I found it telling that everyone was gushing over how that little girl said “Hi, Daddy!” in that infectiously sweet way of children and reporters like Campbell Brown were cooing all over about how “humanizing” that was.

What father or mother has not known the joyous lilt of their child’s voice? What did these people think Obama was until he was “humanized”? An axe murderer?

NEXT: The Comeback!

TO BE CONTINUED!

JOHNYou are arguing the position in reverse. Nate...

2008-08-26T20:30:00.000-04:00

JOHN

You are arguing the position in reverse. Nate's model is showing a growing trend toward OBAMA in the simulations even with the national polls included.

See the top left side as Obama's EV, win% and Popular vote totals are rising each of the past few dats despite your beloved trackers.

Their influence is nominal, especially since they are counter-balanced by the latest state & national polls that show Obama ahead.

You apparently have no grasp of statistical analysis or else you are concern posting...

But the facts speak for themselves.