Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Today's Polls, 8/3

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2009-10-08T06:59:03.600-04:00

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2009-09-11T07:44:27.982-04:00

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2009-02-15T21:41:00.000-05:00

I stayed at this site because I thought numbers we...

2008-08-04T16:10:00.000-04:00

I stayed at this site because I thought numbers were one thing that kept trolls away. How foolish I was. The comments on this site have become ridiculous and offensive. I'm leaving.

There's a new PPP poll up that gives McCain a big ...

2008-08-04T14:44:00.000-04:00

There's a new PPP poll up that gives McCain a big lead. You can see my analysis of their mostly-accurate party-ID here.

ursula said... Yes, there was just one state poll ...

2008-08-04T09:46:00.000-04:00

ursula said...
Yes, there was just one state poll today, but there was also one yesterday which you haven;t included yet.

McCain up 45-40 in FL.

http://blogs.tampabay.com/buzz/2008/08/new-florida-pol.html

I remain skeptical that Obama can carry Florida, but a poll sponsored by the Florida Chamber of Commerce conducted by one of the pre-eminent GOP pollsters is, ahem, "suspect" to say the least.

As far as Oklahoma is concerned, being a born and bred Okie, I have to say that any state that elects James Inhofe to public office only reinforces its image as not the sharpest knife in the drawer.

whispers,Wow, you are misguided. First of all, you...

2008-08-04T09:22:00.000-04:00

whispers,

Wow, you are misguided. First of all, you totally missed the discussion above. Someone commented that Republicans are far worse at being dishonest and dirty in politics and that Democrats have "higher standards."

My point was that Democrata have been known to tell plenty of lies...some of them being very blatant and brazen. In this case, it was an outright lie in what Dean said.

You need to do a little research before you give me an ignorant reply such as you did. First of all, regardless of "who" appointed the justices, they are widely known to have their own conservative and/or liberal biases. So your argument that 7 of the 9 were appointed by Republicans is meaningless. It's what they do, not who appoints them.

Secondly, Bush had not appointed a justice at the time of the decisions (Kelo vs. City of New London), so for Dean to lump the two together was dishonest. They were independent from anything he had ever done.

Thirdly, the decision (upheld 5-4 by the Court) blurred the line for eminent domain rights and set a precedent where it could be used for private/commercial interests and not just public/government works. A vast majority of people polled on the issue disagreed with the decision. Mr. Dean, in the only sane thing he said on the matter, also disagreed. However, he assigned blame to Bush and his right-wing Supremed Court for the decision. However, the liberal justices were all the ones siding on the majority (5), while the conservatives on the bench, Thomas, Scalia, Rehnquist, and O'Connor, were in the dissenting minority.

Only a partisan idiot like you would try and dispute such an egregious statement by your party's chairman. Do some researh. Even the most liberal commentators said Dean stuck his foot in his mouth and has never had a viable excuse or out for what he said. It's one of those lies so big than no amount of spin in the world can get you out of its web.

Now leave me alone.

Note the Oklahoma resident in the Tulsa World arti...

2008-08-04T04:01:00.000-04:00

Note the Oklahoma resident in the Tulsa World article about the Sooner Poll who said he's voting against Barack but assumes he will win to fulfill endtimes prophecy about the antichrist leading to Armageddon.

"The One" ad plays into this speculation without using the word "antichrist." There are over a million search results now for "Obama" and "antichrist."

Mule Rider:I'm interested to hear how Dean is "dis...

2008-08-04T01:40:00.000-04:00

Mule Rider:

I'm interested to hear how Dean is "dishonest" describing the court as dominated by Republican appointees when 7 of the 9 people on the court were appointed by Republicans. Breyer and Ginsburg are the only Dem-appointed justices on the court.

I mean, of all the dishonesty flying through the air these days, this hardly seems like the kind of thing that would attract the attention of anybody but the most die-hard Dem-hater.

Oh, now I see why you've brought it up. After all, it's not relevant in the slightest to the main post, or the general theme of the site.

Obama's flip on drilling is another chip away in h...

2008-08-04T00:09:00.000-04:00

Obama's flip on drilling is another chip away in his claim to be a "change" candidate. The Left is not happy with his cave. It will further erode the "energy" that the youth and enviro libs share for his original stance. BO is morphing into a typical pol...watch the "energy" fade..........

SunnyD: Obama´s willingness to negotiate totally d...

2008-08-04T00:03:00.000-04:00

SunnyD: Obama´s willingness to negotiate totally disrupts republicans. They have gone all-in on the "drilling solves everything" standpoint. Now they´ll have to give in on anything reasonable Obama wants or come away as hypocrites. It´s a total win-win for Obama.

This is not 1980 folks! To think BO is the 1980 RR...

2008-08-03T23:56:00.000-04:00

This is not 1980 folks! To think BO is the 1980 RR is absurd. The dem candidate is Barack Obama...say that a few times and then think of your typical American voter...ain't gonna happen folks. Wake up, Nate! Your forecasting is wacked....Clinton would be winning this thing by 15 pts at this pt in the election. Ohio and Fl would be 10 pts on her side. Swing votes are going to side with McCain in Nov. Obama has not even finished his first term in the Senate. He has been running for Pres longer than he has been a senator. What a joke. He was fixing parking tixs in the Ill senate a few yrs back. Quit drinking the Kool-aid. The Pres race is a dead-heat and you guys are celebrating the fact that Obama is "holding his own" in the national polls. He should be killing Bush/McSame at this pt.

"You want A and I want C, but Im prepared to accep...

2008-08-03T23:49:00.000-04:00

"You want A and I want C, but Im prepared to accept B if you give me a bit of C and I'll allow you a bit of A."

I understand that the Obama was trying to engage in a bipartisan compromise with the Gang of Ten. However, when Joe Six Pack looks up "nuance" in his dictionary, it reads "flip flop."

It was brilliant of Obama to get there first.

Actually, John McCain flip-flopped on it first, but was able to negate his backtrack using the guise of national security, which resonates a hell of a lot better than a compromise.

"Pete Kent""Obama's playing of the race card will ...

2008-08-03T23:48:00.000-04:00

"Pete Kent"

"Obama's playing of the race card will continue to percolate all week"

You mean McCain's playing of the "like them " card. McCain has switched to a more subtle technique of referring to people "like them" to refer to Obama and yet not use the dreaded "r-word." Google obama and "too thin" for details.

Good post, filistro. I love the Wile E. Coyote reference.

Pete, the drilling issue is a winner for Obama. Fi...

2008-08-03T23:41:00.000-04:00

Pete, the drilling issue is a winner for Obama. First, it doesn't enrage his base like FISA did. Second, it will be seen not as a capitulation but a negotiating ploy, as in "You want A and I want C, but Im prepared to accept B if you give me a bit of C and I'll allow you a bit of A."

That is not a loser. In fact, it's the kind of reasonable give-and-take the whole country is starving for. It was brilliant of Obama to get there first.

No wonder he drives McCain nuts. This campaign is like watching one of those old Roadrunner and Wile. E Coyote cartoons. Every time poor Wile E. cranks up the Acme Roadrunner Destroyer, that clever bird just races past him again, going "Beep beep!"

SO demoralizing!

Obama's playing of the race card will continue to ...

2008-08-03T23:30:00.000-04:00

Obama's playing of the race card will continue to percolate all week. The meme seems to be he gets the blame.

The most interesting development of the weekend (the Friday surprise) was Obama's trying to open up some wiggle room on drilling.

It will be a loser for him, and could make the about face on FISA look like a dress rehearsal.

Also, he has firmly declared that he will not participate on any of the additional townhalls with McCain. The meme is that Obama is reluctant to meet with the people and continues to hide behind a teleprompter. If that persists his Invesco field speech will be at best a curiosity and at worst a liability.

Many here think McCain sounds shrill and negative and that that is turning off voters. I see it differently.

this clumsy campaign of McCain’s has managed in a single week to turn Obama's biggest strengths into weaknesses and to trap him into the flip flop of all flip flops on the issue that the people seem to care about the most.

On this basis I expect that the tracking polls should flip this week and give McCain his first lead in a long time.

On a side note, Cantor is a curious name to float. I find it hard to believe that he would add anything to the ticket that Lieberman’s staunch support does not already contribute. Truthfully, I don't know much about him.

My pick remains Rob Portman who did an excellent job on Late Edition this AM.

I'm growing very fond of the weatherchicken.

2008-08-03T23:27:00.000-04:00

I'm growing very fond of the weatherchicken.

souter:Because it's not like McCain didn't have an...

2008-08-03T23:08:00.000-04:00

souter:

Because it's not like McCain didn't have an ad last June where he made fun of what Barack would look like on a dollar bill or anything.

I'd rather Oby campaigned in Oklahoma than panderi...

2008-08-03T22:52:00.000-04:00

I'd rather Oby campaigned in Oklahoma than pandering to various 'communities' in Florida. Get in touch with the heartlands. By the way, it's augur not auger, which I think is some kind of boring tool (much like the supertracker).

It's very simple. A shrill sounding Obama opened ...

2008-08-03T22:23:00.000-04:00

It's very simple. A shrill sounding Obama opened up the race issue. McCain called him on it. I don't see how a fair minded person could possibly see it any other way.

mule,The people who vote against Obama vote agains...

2008-08-03T22:20:00.000-04:00

mule,

The people who vote against Obama vote against people who are not "like them" right?

Note I did not mention race, but you did.

Indeed, when it comes to racism, for those of you in the McCain camp, methinks thou doth protest too much :)

Tyrone,My apologies. I made the comment. There are...

2008-08-03T21:14:00.000-04:00

Tyrone,

My apologies. I made the comment. There are a lot of liberal nut-jobs who make that accusation based on their delusional perceptions...however, I was just taking a jab at Oklahoma as a native of next-door Arkansas and now a resident of Tennessee. It was just to poke fun at our neighbors to the west, not a political or uneducated statement. My mistake was inserting it in a political forum where it might come out not as intended.

Rest assured I'm not in the Obama camp and thinks any state voting against him is full of racist rednecks. Sorry again.

"hey NC moderate, I think you missed one of Howard...

2008-08-03T21:12:00.000-04:00

"hey NC moderate, I think you missed one of Howard Dean's talking points.

You missed....oops, nevermind...you got em all."

Thanks for the compliment, "Pete Kent"

The asymmetrical warfare of politics requires a co...

2008-08-03T21:07:00.000-04:00

The asymmetrical warfare of politics requires a constant struggle for initiative - as one saying goes, if you're responding you're losing.

You can't win a presidential race by coasting, or only saying non-controversial things, because it leaves you open to your attacker making a big stink about nothing and hijacking the news cycle. To wit, McCain's latest "race card" BS.

Obama would be best served by doing anything and everything to pivot public discourse AWAY from the subject of race. By it's nature, race is divisive, and it's a lose-lose for him - the more he implies it matters, the more it corrodes his ability to unify the country under a message of hope.

Obama has been pretty good about making subtle attacks to provoke his opponents into overreacting - like he did with the "confused" comment about McCain - this worked for Obama because, despite talk of a backlash, all it did was reinforce how important age was as an issue and put the target on McCain's back for once.

As long as this race is "about Obama" McCain with skate, and continue to be seen as the default "low-risk" candidate, making Obama the hi-risk choice by implication. Obama and his surrogates have to shift public discourse back onto why McCain is unfit to lead the country, and it can't be because he's a "racist" because all that does is reinforce perceptions in the minds of white voters that Obama is a bigger risk. In other words, McCain might be hurt in a backlash over the racial thing, but backlashes don't win elections and I think Obama will be hurt more and more if race continues to become an issue.

So FWIW, I think Obama should pivot hard and go back to subtly provoking McCain to take a defensive stance. Piss him off and watch him overreact, and then hit him on the issues.