Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: In Contrast to House, Few Signs of Electoral Polit...

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2009-10-08T02:58:41.873-04:00

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2009-03-12T02:58:00.001-04:00

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2009-03-12T02:58:00.000-04:00

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2009-01-18T07:30:00.000-05:00

Nate,I think a different analysis might explain th...

2008-10-02T11:14:00.000-04:00

Nate,

I think a different analysis might explain the Senate. If you look at votes by regions you see a distinct pattern. In southern states, (NC, SC, GA, FL, AL, MS, and LA, 11 Senators voted no and 3 yes. You see a similar pattern in the upper tier that includes the region from the Dakotas west to the Pacific. (ND, SD, WY, MT, ID, OR, & WA)(5 yes and 7 No) So 18 of the 25 no votes came from these two regions The other two Dem. no's were two of the most liberal senators and the remaining Republican no's were conservatives as well

Good news for McCain - He is still ahead in Georgi...

2008-10-02T11:07:00.000-04:00

Good news for McCain - He is still ahead in Georgia 50 to 44. Maybe he can cling on.

Er, when he said we are all Georgians, did he mean that the only Republicans left are Georgians?

poridgegun lol. I am not sure how I would handle h...

2008-10-02T11:01:00.000-04:00

poridgegun

lol. I am not sure how I would handle having my ass served on a plate.

McCain has spent half his life pushing for the top spot. He finaly got to the front of the GOP queue & then this happens.

I am just surprised he didn't have a tantrum.

McCain is either a racist bigot, or he REALLY hate...

2008-10-02T10:37:00.000-04:00

McCain is either a racist bigot, or he REALLY hates Obama for handing his ass to him..

Let the record reflect that Barack Obama made the approach to John McCain tonight.

As the two shared the Senate floor tonight for the first time since they won their party nominations, Obama stood chatting with Democrats on his side of the aisle, and McCain stood on the Republican side of the aisle.

So Obama crossed over into enemy territory.

He walked over to where McCain was chatting with Republican Sen. Mel Martinez of Florida and Independent Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman of Connecticut. And he stretched out his arm and offered his hand to McCain.

McCain shook it, but with a "go away" look that no one could miss. He tried his best not to even look at Obama.

Finally, with a tight smile, McCain managed a greeting: "Good to see you."

Obama got the message. He shook hands with Martinez and Lieberman — both of whom greeted him more warmly — and quickly beat a retreat back to the Democratic side.

Not very presidential. Or mature.

http://www.americablog.com/2008/10/cq-obama-makes-mccain-very.html

Blame -Really? You think people are too embarrass...

2008-10-02T10:33:00.000-04:00

Blame -

Really? You think people are too embarrassed to tell someone on the phone that they support McCain, because he's becoming a bit of a joke, but not too embarrassed to vote for him?!

Surely not!

(Disclaimer: eternal optimist, been astonished at both recent elections. Ha ha will I never learn.)

ross But we afford it right? Oh! Well then, just c...

2008-10-02T10:30:00.000-04:00

ross

But we afford it right? Oh! Well then, just charge it.

bex If anything it should increase the suposed bra...

2008-10-02T10:27:00.000-04:00

bex

If anything it should increase the suposed bradley effect on the grounds that admitting you are a McCain supporter is no longer respectable. A bit like admitting your too stupid to be able to read.

The "sweeteners" in this bill are all pork barrel ...

2008-10-02T10:22:00.000-04:00

The "sweeteners" in this bill are all pork barrel spending and earmarks. The fact that Obama and McCain passed it without a second thought shows the hypocrisy of our leading politicians.

A few of the earmarks stuffed in the bill:

- Film and Television Productions (Sec. 502)
- Wooden Arrows designed for use by children (Sec. 503)
- 6 page package of earmarks for litigants in the 1989 Exxon Valdez incident, Alaska (Sec. 504)

Tax earmark “extenders” in the bailout bill.
- Virgin Island and Puerto Rican Rum (Section 308)
- American Samoa (Sec. 309)
- Mine Rescue Teams (Sec. 310)
- Mine Safety Equipment (Sec. 311)
- Domestic Production Activities in Puerto Rico (Sec. 312)
- Indian Tribes (Sec. 314, 315)
- Railroads (Sec. 316)
- Auto Racing Tracks (317)
- District of Columbia (Sec. 322)
- Wool Research (Sec. 325)

New complete convert to this site, and first time ...

2008-10-02T10:20:00.000-04:00

New complete convert to this site, and first time poster (and Brit - so I don't even get to vote!)

There's been some chat on this board about how discussion of a landslide could overturn this idea of not voting for a Black president, i.e. well everyone else is so maybe I will.

How much do people think these astonishing polls could be self-fullfilling prophecies, and thereby overturning the Bradley effect? What I mean is, people who are currently telling pollers they would vote for BHO (but wouldn't) produce such an effect that it actually tips people (maybe even them!) into voting for him?

Another reason the polls fill me with joy, but I'm new to this. What do others think?

"Another October tactic could be a coerced discuss...

2008-10-02T10:10:00.000-04:00

"Another October tactic could be a coerced discussion of sexism with Biden gaffe after Biden gaffe and BHO gaffe after BHO gaffe shown agains the treatment of Palin."

McCain has defanged the "sexism" attack with his own stupidity, just as he previously defanged the "experience" angle and every other valid criticism he had of Obama.

The Palin pick is increasingly being recognized as the inherently sexist pick that it is. And McCain's handling of Palin is far more sexist than anything Obama or Biden have ever done.

@blameLOL

2008-10-02T10:02:00.000-04:00

@blame

LOL

I don't know about you lot, but it looks to me tha...

2008-10-02T10:00:00.000-04:00

I don't know about you lot, but it looks to me that maybe the Public isn't quite that dumb.

This keeps up & the Nevada offices will close down so they can all rush back to win Texas.

Rasmussen trackerObama 51McCain 447% from a tracke...

2008-10-02T09:55:00.000-04:00

Rasmussen tracker

Obama 51
McCain 44

7% from a tracker that has always underestimated Obama's lead AND is semi-locked by fixed shares of DEM/GOP voters.

Things look very bad for McCain right now, and it ...

2008-10-02T09:54:00.000-04:00

Things look very bad for McCain right now, and it may be the case that the MSM will refuse to countenance any Republican ads that try to illimunate BHO's Chicago political upbringing. That could dampen BHO's momentum right now.

Another October tactic could be a coerced discussion of sexism with Biden gaffe after Biden gaffe and BHO gaffe after BHO gaffe shown agains the treatment of Palin.

Sedi, My claim is based on instinct, a fair amount...

2008-10-02T09:44:00.000-04:00

Sedi,

My claim is based on instinct, a fair amount of cynicism about the American electorate(Bush was elected twice remember.) And with facts. 2 weeks ago, Mccain was up in all of these states substantially. Lets say Mccain finally finds his Maverick voice or knock Obama out in one of the last 2 debates, you will see the same type of momentum shift as you do now. Just because Bush's approval numbers are low doesnt mean those same people are voting for Obama. I have nothing but cynicism for Florida and Ohio. 2 weeks ago Mccain was pulling away in both. I would have to suspend belief to think Obama is up more than 3 point in either right now. Indiana and North Carolina is too red. I honestly dont believe they will be close. Virginia and Nevada are doable for Obama but will be uphill.

You cant have a sense of security in the race now because this general election has had some of the wildest swings in memory. I think both canidates have reached their highwater marks and Obama has a higher ceiling than Mccain. But Obama does not close well. And Mccain's campaign has controlled the news cycle nearly the entire summer. A 3 or 4 point lead right now is not insurmountable in the least. And yes there is the Bradley effect. I think the ground game and new voters will offset any effect that will have, but we all do not know how much race will affect the final numbers.

Im not fact-free trolling, cos the facts are that in the last couple months of the Democratic nomination the obama camp went into prevent defense. Just 2 weeks ago Democrats were calling for him to hit back. Yes the polls look good now but lets not forget the facts. Obama needs to CLOSE. Forget the photo finish. Put the foot on the throat. Why leave it up to November 4th when hes in position to put the game out of reach now. I dont see any indication that Obama is going for the kill. Thats my only complaint. I mostly agree with you though.

Wright/Ayers=McCain Landslide !!!

2008-10-02T09:20:00.000-04:00

Wright/Ayers=McCain Landslide !!!

Mission of God?

2008-10-02T09:19:00.000-04:00

Mission of God?

Palin is important for two main reasons, as people...

2008-10-02T09:17:00.000-04:00

Palin is important for two main reasons, as people here have said repeatedly. First, McCain is old and has health issues. Second, her selection reflects on his judgment.

The problem is that too many Americans still refuse to understand the real danger she represents.

---Palin is the VP candidate, not the presidential...

2008-10-02T09:13:00.000-04:00

---Palin is the VP candidate, not the presidential candidate.
The race is between McCain and Obama, not Palin and Biden.---

What does this even mean? You mean the race for President is about the candidates for President? Gee, thanks for that illuminating insight.

Pretending the Palin pick doesn't have great significance to McCain's candidacy is ludicrous.

Dario - the thing is that she more than your usual...

2008-10-02T09:12:00.000-04:00

Dario - the thing is that she more than your usual VP candidate reflects on McCain's judgement.

And more so than other VPs she is almost the face of that campaign.

While Biden needs to stick with praising Obama and bashing McCain tonight, Palin is big news. If she actually shows comeptence (and not just beating low expectations, but actually sounding like she understands the world) then its a big win for McCain - a couple point swing in his direction.

If she is not competent, but gets out some zingers the race probably stays put. If she has a major gaffe then Obama surges over 50% tomorrow.

Palin is the VP candidate, not the presidential ca...

2008-10-02T09:08:00.001-04:00

Palin is the VP candidate, not the presidential candidate.
The race is between McCain and Obama, not Palin and Biden.