Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Today's Polls, 8/14

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2009-10-08T05:59:03.880-04:00

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2009-09-15T01:52:15.466-04:00

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2009-02-15T22:00:00.000-05:00

What I find interesting about this site and Nate, ...

2008-08-15T21:46:00.000-04:00

What I find interesting about this site and Nate, is that it went from a totally numbers based site, to slightly partisan to ,now we know where Nate Stands site.

Because of his declared Obama status, I don't know why Nate just won't say (I will), "that most of the current state and national polls are questionable, because these polls continue to push Party ID towards the republican's, re-align demographics and/or use likely voter models (instead of registered ones)".

I guess Nate decided not to criticize these polls, because nothing switched dramtically, but he shouldn't of dropped the win % so dramtically ("But I thought he was biased").

Unfortunately, I take all these polls, with a grain of salt, until I see consectutive trends or decent internals..

I find it difficult to believe that pople are read...

2008-08-15T16:08:00.000-04:00

I find it difficult to believe that pople are reading so much into these new Minnesota numbers.

Look at the Party IDs

Three weeks ago Rasmussen used a breakdown of 52/39 (D/R).

Now it's 49/45.

Are we expected to believe that more than 100,000 switched Parties in Minnesota between 7/22 and 8/13?

If Party ID in Minnesota broke down 49/45 as Rasmussen claims it currently does, then Norm Coleman would be breaking 50% without trouble.

I think Obama loses ground whenever he's not makin...

2008-08-15T15:03:00.000-04:00

I think Obama loses ground whenever he's not making news. He needs to keep that news-plate spinning but not so much that it flies off say like it did into Berlin like last month - hence a delicate balance needs to be struck from now until November by him. Maybe an endorsement by Phlyboy Phelps could help in the short term? or by his twin!

Nate,UNDERSTANDING COLORADOI refer you and your fo...

2008-08-15T11:58:00.000-04:00

Nate,

UNDERSTANDING COLORADO

I refer you and your followers back to your analysis several weeks ago regarding the error we junkies make in trying to attribute poll movements to micro rather than lagged macro inputs.

I was a Republican Colorado legislator in the late 90s and early 00s. Here are some insights into Colorado to chew on:

1) The Democrat surge over the last 10 years in Colorado's state and federal seats is due primarily to superior organization, the fundraising from four multimillionaire benefactors, campaign reforms that advantaged the Democrats and a much better systematic financial, career and organizational support of their young emerging politicians. I left the legislature by choice due to career and financial considerations and I wasn't alone. It was as if every young Democrat in the legislature had an adjunct prof gig and/or and exec directorship of some grant funded nonprofit. The young Republicans were trying to work real private sector jobs and serve (and it was destroying them personally). My seat was lost 2 years after I left. McInnis could have held the 3rd CD forever or won the Campbell Senate seat or Owens’ Governorship. He left politics for family and financial reasons.

2) The Democrats trumped the GOP in redistricting and reapportionment through their control of the state courts and their clever federal lawsuit that allowed them to get a judge they could assess before deciding how to approach congressional seats in the state legislature. Once they got a "good" judge assigned they chose that route and won. The 7th CD is a Democrat masterpiece crafted at state party HQ and rubber stamped by a federal judge.

Colorado's Democrat swing is due first to superior politics (Mike Feeley was rumored to have even funneled money to the Libertarians - who ran extensive slates to knock 2-3 points off Rs in close seats. It worked in several cases).

3) The Democrat Convention in Denver is a fiasco and is hurting Obama. We're getting weekly stories on the latest example of bad government and party corruption. For example, the use by DNC fundraisers of tax exempt City of Denver gasoline pumps to fill their cars. Maverick independent local talk radio host Pete Boyles is on AM every morning ripping the Dems and almost promoting the far left counter-demonstrators to act. Since gaining power the Dems have raised taxes every year and its having and impact on their numbers. Ritter unionized the state employees. Ritter will have a touch time getting re-elected.

4) Pelosi is killing Obama. The Dems "lets drill the magic existing leases" is code for lets drill the square states and protect our homeboy coastal NIMBYs. Everone in the West sees through this. That means its drill the Roan Plateau in Colorado's pristine mountains but don't touch Pelosi's NorCal coast or Kennedy's Nantucket. This is poison in the center of the country for the Ds.

5) Colorado is still an anti-Washington libertarian state. The Federal Government is hated. Forests the size of Massachusetts are dead from pine beetle kill almost all on federal land. Big federal government doesn't play in the West.

6) Obama's decision to assume a pseudo presidency along with the Democrats control of Congress makes them look more and more like the incumbent party. This is killing Obama's change theme. The more Pelosi’s on TV and the more Obama acts like a sitting President the more he and the Ds look like the DC insiders.

7) As more and more slowly leaks into the independent voter's mind about Obama's time in Chicago and Illinois politics the more he looks corrupt. The motive behind Obama that validates these corruption rumors for the independent “jury” voter is Obama’s arrogance and power lust. This image of Obama is getting into their minds with McCain’s genius celebrity ads (which are running heavily on Colorado media).This will continue to be a slow eroding line with Obama in the West until Election Day.

I'll post more if this generates interest.

Sorry, should have been 50, not 500 meters. (Thoug...

2008-08-15T10:53:00.000-04:00

Sorry, should have been 50, not 500 meters. (Though this campaign seems like that...)

I think P Smith gets it right. McCain is busy pont...

2008-08-15T10:48:00.000-04:00

I think P Smith gets it right. McCain is busy pontificating about Georgia and getting facetime with more news and ads; Obama is on vacation. Very similar to a reverse, smaller version of Obama's overseas bounce. (And by smaller, we are talking maybe 1/4 the movement Obama saw). Probably just as transitory, as well.

Obama has consistently been playing a strategic game this summer, taking short-term hits ("tacking to the center," "spending time overseas," "being on vacation") so that he can come back to the Conventions with all his negatives corrected and keep momentum going through the fall.

Meanwhile, McCain had campaign staff issues and only got his act together a month ago by deciding to capitulate to the Rovian handlers...and those handlers haven't given McCain a moment's rest. Are there McCain vulnerabilities? Sure...w/ George Bush being the top of them. And you haven't seen Obama really pull out his big attacks yet.

The real fight won't begin until the conventions. Obama's been busy taking short term hits to go strong into the conventions and the fall. And he'll be going in two to four points ahead. All he needs to do is hold onto that lead and not let it slip away the way it did for Kerry. Could it? Sure. But this is a forward looking game he's playing. It's like the Olympic swimmers holding back on the first laps and saving it for the last 500 meters. By the time they get to the debates, Obama will appear rested, informed, and optimistic. McCain's going to tire himself out and appear grumpy and mean. Let's see who crosses the finish line ahead.

VC Your the type of guy that voted for Bush, then ...

2008-08-15T10:46:00.000-04:00

VC Your the type of guy that voted for Bush, then never wanted to admit to it but now you think your decision is better because you are voting for McSame. Ignorant people like you are the reason America is not respected even in my home country of Poland. Maybe think before you vote next time and not make America worse of then it already is.

Interesting piece by Tom Jensen of PPP as to one o...

2008-08-15T10:12:00.000-04:00

Interesting piece by Tom Jensen of PPP as to one of the reasons why PPP showed an Obama lead of 4 in Colorado while Rasmussen had a McCain lead of 1

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/

2. Change the model or offer an alternative model ...

2008-08-15T10:05:00.000-04:00

2. Change the model or offer an alternative model to include the 3rd party candidates. I bet if you include Bob Barr and Ralph Nader there could be some interesting results.

1) The system sort of does this anyways. On the "popular vote" pie chart, the Obama and McCain figures don't add up to 100; the remainder (right now, 2.5%) is presumably third-party vote.

2)
Opinion polls ALWAYS overstate third-party support. (Well, those that include them.) See this article by Mark Blumenthal and this post by Al Giordano. The articles deal more with June polling, but it's still applicable in pre-convention-season.

oooh people are shouty today arent they. The US mu...

2008-08-15T08:10:00.000-04:00

oooh people are shouty today arent they. The US must be one of the most polarized nations in the western world politically speaking. You have 2 candidates who said in the primaries they wanted to 'play nice' and look at what you are all doing. Tis very strange.

Why cant you all start with:
The race is tightening, BO is ahead. then maybe you wouldnt be so partiszn?

Anyways:
If Bo has 6 routes to victory [presuming he holds NH and MI.

1.the West 3 of IA/CO/NM/NV

2. a gamebreaker 1. Ohio

3. 1+1: Indiana + 1/2 westerns

4. 1+1 [2] VA + 1/2 Western

5. a gamebreaker 2. FL

6.the long shot GO,NC somthing based around a huge AA turnout.

And if that is fair:

1. He is now behind in his best shot of winning.

2. as the change candidate he should be further ahead. - candidates for change tend to start stong and fall back slightly.

Nate could we get a small table showing safe states for either side and in play?

Wow, what a lot of excitement over a poll that sho...

2008-08-15T05:13:00.000-04:00

Wow, what a lot of excitement over a poll that shows Obama leading by 4 in MN and McCain leading by 1 point in CO. Yes, there is a trend which shows Obama's lead in those states and others dipping. But it doesn't concern me in the least.

Why? Obama is on holiday and for the past week, McCain has therefore had greater face time on TV. It's the same reason why Obama got a temporary lift from his overseas trip. The movement in the polls is simply soft movement of floating voters reacting to their general sense of where things stand which is inevitably coloured by what they have seen and heard in recent days. I doubt however that this is a long term shift simply because nothing of substance has happened this week. Georgia will not be an issue in November.

At moments like this I actually have greater admiration for Republicans on the basis that unlike Democrat supporters, they don't go weak at the knees when they see a few worse polls. There you go PeteKent, some praise for you albeit backhanded.

The fact remains that Obama continues to lead comfortably in national polls and in state polls he is far better positioned than McCain (albeit not quite as well as he was last week). Once Obama is back in town (later today) and re-engages McCain on the economy, we will see a reversion just as we did once Obama brushed off the Paris Hilton celebrity nonsense.

Watch and learn.

PS I have no idea why Nate has added a McCain +5 national poll to his poll tracker today. The only national poll showing a lead for McCain was over a week ago. I do hope Nate is not being a pussy and feeling the need to skew his tracker so that it matches up with these recent state polls. If anything the recent trend in national polls has seen a re-establishment by Obama of a lead of 4 points on average according to RealClearPolitics from a low of 2 points a week ago.

PPS As for Rasmussen generally I do not believe that he cheats his number as some suggest. Yes, he altered party ID to give the Republicans a 2 point swing but he declared it. If that was wrong, then McCain's Colorado lead is actually an Obama lead of 1 point and in MN, Obama leads by 6. The only sense in which Rasmussen is clearly biased is in the ancillary questions he asks. For instance, he always asks about offshore drilling in order to promote it as an issue. He also asks other loaded questions such as whether the media is helping Obama. I have no problem with that but he doesn't balance that up by asking, say, whether people view McCain's campaign ads as unfair of false. FoxNews (of all people) released poll findings a few days ago which showed that 40% of people think McCain's ads are negative compared to 15% who think they are positive. The figures were reversed for Obama. If that polling was given more publicity it might affect the political discourse. So in that sense only do I think that Rasmussen is biased.

Rasmussen like other pollsters have shifted their ...

2008-08-15T00:47:00.000-04:00

Rasmussen like other pollsters have shifted their party ID in favor of the Republicans. Not that the media has decided McCain has a chance of winning, suddenly the Repubs have come out of the closet. Sorry, but I'm not buying the story line. Personally, I think most of these guys should seek new employment. The media coverage of this election has been pathetic. What is more pathetic is that the polling companies seem all to happy to shift their numbers to align with the narrative. We have really reached a sad state of affairs.

Well said Pete, well said. A similar thing happene...

2008-08-15T00:12:00.000-04:00

Well said Pete, well said. A similar thing happened at my local fair. Someone wondered aloud next to the Democratic booth why there were so many Democratic volunteers and a cell phone booth worker responded, "They're Democrats, they don't work!" More to the point, bjb I think that quote says something about Obama. The fact that he thinks a baby is punishment is simply awful.

Nate! I'm begging to do two things.1. Get the tr...

2008-08-14T23:46:00.000-04:00

Nate! I'm begging to do two things.

1. Get the trolls and the folks who are making ridiculous comments off the comment thread. The liberals are jerks comments are particularly stupid. Stick to the subject of the post.

2. Change the model or offer an alternative model to include the 3rd party candidates. I bet if you include Bob Barr and Ralph Nader there could be some interesting results.

I'm with you there Stop the Stutter. I'm currently...

2008-08-14T23:30:00.000-04:00

I'm with you there Stop the Stutter. I'm currently wearing my "NObama" pin I picked up at the fair in the liberal stronghold of Western Washington. I have been saying for weeks that just because you see more Obama stuff doesn't mean he's ahead because conservatives are generally part of a "silent majority".

On August 14, 2004, Kerry had the lead in states w...

2008-08-14T22:51:00.000-04:00

On August 14, 2004, Kerry had the lead in states worth 327 electoral votes on electoral-vote.com. We all know how that turned out in November.

On August 14, 2008, Obama has 284 electoral votes on electoral-vote.com (43 less than Kerry on the same date). Not good news for Obamaphiles.

Thank you, Mark. The real slam is to the seniors I...

2008-08-14T22:47:00.000-04:00

Thank you, Mark.

The real slam is to the seniors I visited who are all in their late 70's and early 80's. Perhaps Pete doesn't understand that the older, rural Western women owned guns and used them to protect their gardens and chickens?

Don't be an ass to Smitty, Pete.

2008-08-14T22:30:00.000-04:00

Don't be an ass to Smitty, Pete.

Pete - I read the link you posted a few days back ...

2008-08-14T22:23:00.000-04:00

Pete - I read the link you posted a few days back to your web page. I thought you were a better person.

I wrote the truth and I haven't been on your lawn.

Smitty -- You are full of sh*tGet the hell offa m...

2008-08-14T22:05:00.000-04:00

Smitty -- You are full of sh*t

Get the hell offa my lawn!

Overrated... that post was priceless!I just hope t...

2008-08-14T22:00:00.000-04:00

Overrated... that post was priceless!

I just hope the Liberals continue to ignore reality.

Believing: "quiet people vote too" is correct. How...

2008-08-14T21:58:00.000-04:00

Believing: "quiet people vote too" is correct. However, believing "seniors and working class whites are quietly biding their time to come out in droves against Obama in November" is faulty, at best.

I am surrounded by people who meet that description plus all (even the females) cling to their guns and their religion. Truthfully, there has been some racism among these good people. I was shocked this past weekend when I learned, from them, that they have been paying attention, and they have concluded that the nice young man from Hawaii has Aloha spirit, understands about Pearl Harbor, and has the right idea about dealing with Russia. They say they are not ready for World War III.

Did I mention most of them are lifelong Republicans?