Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Today's Polls, 9/19

^^ very nice 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社, 徵...

2009-03-12T02:06:00.000-04:00

^^ nice blog!! ^@^徵信, 徵信網, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵...

2009-03-12T02:05:00.000-04:00

bjb1968 said... "Ichabod said... McCain wins 7 of ...

2008-09-21T22:07:00.000-04:00

bjb1968 said...
"Ichabod said...
McCain wins 7 of the 10 highlighted polls in Ohio, but under Nate's "slightly tweaked" model, Ohio now tilts towards Obama.

Shocking."

Not only is McCain winning but all these polls were taken when most of SW OH's power was out. An area that is very RED. The few that showed BO ahead would flip if cable based phones and many land lines hadn't been out. Same goes for SE IN which is very RED.

Nothing serious has been said on this site about the impact of 4 - 6 million households, 6 - 10 million voters in TX and LA being out of power and their houses due to Ike
as well as 1.5 million housholds and 2 - 3 million voters without power and phone in in IN, KY and OH. The impact to 10% of voters being un reachable by pollsters gets no press but we spend months talking about the "cell phone" impact.

Nate's bias is insane but that's ok I love watching the Libs going up and down daily. The drug costs are going to kill them.

My opinion about Obama’s past week lead in nationa...

2008-09-20T12:48:00.000-04:00

My opinion about Obama’s past week lead in national and in some state polls is not due to what he or his campaign has done. But it is due to Hurricane Ike’s effect on red voters in red and blue states. Even this post says “Changes of this velocity are unusual outside of the convention periods and the debates, especially in close elections.” Here is my explanation:
McCain lost his lead in several tracking and non-tracking polls because of Hurricane Ike. Hurricane Ike started in a big Red State Texas where 4 million people lost power and telephone connections. After leaving Southeast Texas/LA border, Ike traveled through rural part of several Red and Blue states (OK, AR, IN, MO, OH, KY, PA, NY) and caused similar problems for another 6 million people. National or State polling without these rural areas (~ 10 million adults without power and landline connections) will change the PARTY ID in the sample and therefore the poll results skewed in favor of Obama (national polls and Indiana state poll). On the other hand, the state polls which were not taken during this period or where Ike did NOT travel shows a McCain lead. The Rasmussen poll which does NOT use a dynamic party ID which can be influenced by Hurricane Ike didn’t show a big lead. Majority of the people who lost power in this hurricane Ike were still without power at this time.
As a neutral observer, I do not feel that Obama made a game changing ‘case’ to American People last week to earn this major swing in national polls. Therefore, national poll and red state poll (IN) leads MAY disappear in the coming weeks and other state polls may still show a McCain lead.
Evidence in Polls:
Today's National Journal state polls in OH, FL, CO and VA are still showing either a tie or a McCain lead
Today's SUSA poll shows McCain still leads in FL.
Today's ARG poll in NH shows a McCain lead too.
These state polls do NOT reflect 4 or 6 pt bounce which was observed in the national polls.
Whereas today's Indiana poll where Ike traveled shows Obama lead for the first time.
Obama's leads in NM and IA are real but they cannot account for 4 to 6 pt bounce in the National polls

Evidence for Power Outage:
“The storm also is responsible for power outages from Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, Ohio, Kentucky and New York.”
South East Texas: Several Red counties and 1 blue county 2.6 million households = ~ 5 million people
Ohio: 1.3 million homes – all Red counties = 2.6 million people http://www.news9.com/global/story.asp?s=9024926
Kentucky: 300, 000 – all red counties = 600K people
Eastern Oklahoma: http://nwanews.com/nwat/News/69149/
Arkansas: http://www.kfsm.com/Global/story.asp?S=9005619
Illinois: 49K homes: 98K
Kentucky: 600K homes: 1.2 million
Pennsylvania: 64K homes – 128K people
http://www.koco.com/weather/17501924/detail.html
http://www.koco.com/news/17483184/detail.html

Am I right in thinking that technically Palin isn'...

2008-09-20T08:53:00.000-04:00

Am I right in thinking that technically Palin isn't on the ballot at all in the sense that electors aren't obliged to vote for the VP candidate on a ticket? Its legally, I believe a step further than just being a faithless elector, they are legally entitled to vote for whoever they chose as VP?

That being said, McCain would kill any chance he had of being President by replacing Palin on the ticket. Like it or not he has so much political capital invested in Palin that to kick her off the ticket now would be more disastrous for him that McGovern replacing Eagleton. Save a disastrous scandal against Palin (which would reflect very poorly on McCain's vetting of Palin) she will be veep candidate.

I've done national campaigns in Maine. ME-2 is not...

2008-09-20T07:13:00.000-04:00

I've done national campaigns in Maine. ME-2 is not like vermont. It's like the middle of PA. It's got more NASCAR fans then almost anywhere in New England. It's also got a major Perot streak. In 92 when Perot made his huge move the CD was almost a Perot Electoral Vote. The key for this CD is turnout in Lewiston-Auburn, Bangor, the Madawaska Valley. The Millinockets (where Michaud is From), Rumford/Mexico (milltowns) Those are D strongholds. Then reduce the D vs R loss in the other areas. Michaud is unopposed and Collins is comfortable so that might depress R turnout in the 2nd CD but Obama should be worried because this CD will bounce around. The 1st CD and the statewide vote are fine - he might need to drop some $$ on ads but it's low cost and can be done if their internals start to worry them. Probably should just send in $250K now and shore things up a bit.

You'll get residual advertising for the Lewiston-Auburn area by hitting the Portland Media Market which is used to reach parts of NH.

I've been worried about the 2nd CD for a few weeks now because Palin is definitely a good play there. The trick for D's would be to point how how she is NOT Susan Collins or Olympia Snow and just to then focus on Turnout and not taking their eye of the ball. An add more populist in nature about the economy will be important. An interesting element in Maine in the 90's was that two of the bigger D towns/cities in Maine, Lewiston in the 2nd CD and Augusta in the first elected African American mayors... It seems on theory at least that parts of the Franco-American community in Maine who traditionally vote D but are hardcore working class families that were in Maine history heavily discriminated against by white-protestants have some shared feeling with African American experiences that give them good favorability toward AA candidates. Maine is 98% white but the Franco-American experience is one that is very much a distinct quasi-minority experience.

Biden will also do well in the 2nd CD and I'd expect to see him swing through Maine soon and do some side-by-side campaigning in the 2nd CD with Mike Michaud and Baldacci.

McCain gave an interview recently to a Maine NBC a...

2008-09-20T06:19:00.000-04:00

McCain gave an interview recently to a Maine NBC affiliate where he essentially stated that he holds no hope of winning the state. So take that for what it's worth.

I think it is already legally impossible for Palin...

2008-09-20T05:19:00.000-04:00

I think it is already legally impossible for Palin to be replaced on the ticket in most states. The deadline for getting a VP candidate on the ballot has passed. And in some states, ballots for early voting will start coming out in just a couple of weeks.

I have asked this question before but maybe somebo...

2008-09-20T04:32:00.000-04:00

I have asked this question before but maybe somebody can give me an answer this time.

At what point will it be legaly imposible for Palin to be replaced?

Please note. I am not asking when it will be Politicaly imposible, just Legaly.

Nate There is growing critism that your tracker po...

2008-09-20T04:26:00.000-04:00

Nate

There is growing critism that your tracker poll adjustment to state polling figures is excessive.

I agree. I question just how sensitive battleground states are to National polls.

Is it worth concidering that Battleground states are both more locked & more insulated from national trends than others? That the difference will be a growing factor?

There is a reasonable argument to make that in battleground states more voters will already have been pushed into firm support of one candidate or the other and more of the information thrust apon them will be taylored to local interests and biases.

You must have enough data to check such a hypothosis by now.

Obama will win by a nail biting 270 or so in the e...

2008-09-20T04:10:00.000-04:00

Obama will win by a nail biting 270 or so in the electoral college. He's not the strongest candidate, but he has the right message. McCain won't be able to push beyond the gimmick of his VP pick. McCain is even weaker at speaking than Obama which will hurt him, because ultimately he's the guy at the top of the GOP ticket, not the more congenial Palin. Palin has played the role she was supposed to, i.e. keeping the game close. But ultimately, the person at the top of the ticket has to seal the deal. McCain won't be able to do that. It's just not in his make-up.
The polls will go back and forth, but without a fundamental advantage shown, the Democratic candidate will have the advantage of change, especially in a tight economy. McCain ultimately is stuck with being the candidate for the wrong party this election cycle. In 2000 he would have been the perfect candidate in the changing fortunes of politics, but Bush frustrated those hopes. Now he's got his shot in the worst possible circumstances. The only way he could beat these odds is with an absolutely stellar debate performance, which is doubtful.
I'm betting on a nail biting close election victory for Obama. It will always be close due to the racial undertones of his candidacy and his inability to provide any folksy, down-home charm. If either of those factors were reversed for Obama, McCain wouldn't even be discussed right now, and Palin would be a desperate footnote in election politicking.
So as I said at the beginning it will be squeaker of a victory, but ultimately history just doesn't favor anything for the GOP but an overwhelming champion in the mold of a resurrected Reagan. Less than that, and the GOP will be losing.
Finally, despite Obama's poor performance as a fighter, he does have one advantage that the GOP can't match, an unprecedented organization. It's the veritable ace in the hole for the Democratic effort this election cycle. And even Karl Rove admits it's formidable. Obama will mobilize his base, and that effort reminiscent of old time machine politics will push him over the top in the election despite any campaign hiccups.

Obama will win by a nail biting 270 or so in the e...

2008-09-20T03:56:00.000-04:00

First-time poster, long-time lurker...I'd just lik...

2008-09-20T03:39:00.000-04:00

First-time poster, long-time lurker...

I'd just like to thank Nate for all of his hard work on this site. And also, I want to address some of the people commenting on this blog.

First: If you are going to protest Nate's methodology, please explain why you are doing so... not only with words, but also with an EQUATION. If you have a complaint that has a real basis, then you should be able to express it in a way that can be verified by previously measured data. I don't know Nate, but I don't think that he has any vested interest in skewing his results one way or the other. If it was me, I'd be interested in refining my model to make it as accurate as possible.

That being said, I do have a bit of ANECDOTAL evidence for people to chew on... I'm from Michigan and I've lived on the U-M campus during the 2004 and 2008 campaigns. There is no comparison whatsoever between the two in terms of motivation, at least in this area. If all other things are held constant, the youth vote will be significantly higher than it was in 2004, and it is going to break for Obama more than it did for Kerry. I have never seen any political organization in Ann Arbor as organized as the Obama campaign. There are volunteers out on the streets, signing up voters every single day, and I know several people who were politically apathetic last time around who are going to vote for Obama in November.

I think Vernon is Mule Rider.

2008-09-20T03:32:00.000-04:00

I think Vernon is Mule Rider.

I think Obama can/might win NC and IN while losing...

2008-09-20T02:55:00.000-04:00

I think Obama can/might win NC and IN while losing OH. I know it's counter to all prognostications by Nate's model, but the groundgame disparities are most clear in these two states. NC has registered about 1/2 mil new voters this summer, and Obama has 50+ field offices to McCain's NONE. Indiana is very similar, though I don't know the stats as well, nor am I as intimate with the state. It's been 10 years since I was anywhere close - I used to work in Southern IN when I lived in KY, so it blows my mind to think that this is even possible. still, I know that most people don't think NC is possible, and I live here and know what they don't.

But I think there is a special relationship between IN/NC and the Obama campaign - these were the "closer" states for his campaign in his primary bid (even tho he ultimately lost IN, the narrowness of that loss was meaningful in itself), and there's a particular kind of fervor that people who supported him then - and Dems generally - feel at the prospect of turning our long-red states blue. It's more than just being a "swing state." It's personal. Yeah, there are doubters and haters, but there are also some serious, unwavering, die-hard boosters. Obama is our guy. These are basketball states, and the folks here know how to run a full court press even when we're 20 points down. The prospect of actually coming from behind to win this time means we will run until the very last second of the game.

I predict that people are going to last at least t...

2008-09-20T02:02:00.000-04:00

I predict that people are going to last at least the first half hour to 40 minutes this time if not all the way through the debates. All the kerfluffles have caught their attention.

By the way, Obama also has to do something to inoc...

2008-09-20T01:44:00.000-04:00

By the way, Obama also has to do something to inoculate against the proverbial "October Surprise," such as a terrorist attack or a big, splashy capture/kill of Bin Laden. He needs to force Bush/GOP/McCain on the defensive--something like a statement underscoring how "it is about time" that there be dramatically more emphasis on Afghanistan/Pakistan "after doing nothing serious about it for 7 1/2 years".....

bjb--What "3 out of 4" national polls did McCain "...

2008-09-20T01:37:00.000-04:00

bjb--What "3 out of 4" national polls did McCain "close the gap"? Obama moved up in Gallup; Daily Kos didn't move (though Obama polled higher in yesterday's sample than the current average); Rasmussen didn't move. Didn't Battleground move up for Obama (or at least stayed at a tie---I can't remember what they were yesterday)? Only Diageo moved against Obama. I don't recall seeing any non-tracker national polls out today.

In my opinion, Obama is in pretty good shape riding the economic news and coming off very knowledgable and presidential on point (in comparison to the bag full of cliches drooled out by McCain and Palin). Naturally, though, something else will come along to distract from the economic issues. All sorts of "unknown unknowns" out there.

But one "known unknown" is the first debate a week from now. Since it will be on foreign policy, that will force a change in everyone's focus, and Obama needs to be well prepared for that rather abrupt change of topic. As I think about it, the first debate is probably the single KNOWN biggest obstacle between here and victory for Obama: everyone thinks of foreign policy as McCain's strength, and everyone will pounce on Obama the first time he says "uhh" as he thoughtfully searches for the right word. If he can hold his own in that debate, he SHOULD have smooth sailing thereafter.

"However, ME-1 and ME-2 usually vote very similarl...

2008-09-20T01:31:00.000-04:00

"However, ME-1 and ME-2 usually vote very similarly, and ME-2 is not entirely unlike Vermont, where Obama's polling has been quite strong."

ME-2 has its blue outposts (most notably old mill towns, where the labor union mentality aids Democrats), but snagging it shouldn't be an uphill battle for McCain. ME-1 does resemble parts of Vermont, or maybe western Massachusetts, but ME-2 is more like northern New Hampshire, or rural western Pennsylvania/SE Ohio. These are regions where support for Hillary Clinton might have strengthened the Democrats' chances, but where voters have by and large been left cold by Obama. I would not at all be surprised to see both Maine and Nebraska split their electoral votes this November.

Vince-your statements are irrational, unsupported ...

2008-09-20T01:25:00.000-04:00

Vince-your statements are irrational, unsupported by any facts, unsupported by any evidence and are clearly intended to be pointlessly inflammatory. You seem to assume that the worst of Islam represents all Muslims. This is like assuming the worst of Christianity defines all Christians. You’re arguments are based on narrow stereotypes, not facts. I could easily (and in an equally pointless fashion) state as follows:

1. Underage marriage is supported by Christian radicals in Utah, Texas and New Mexico.

2. Head chopping is supported by most on the Christian right-just rephrased as support for the death penalty. (Side note-no-I am NOT going to debate the death penalty-I acknowledge having no good answers on that one)

3. Killing homosexuals: I personally know of die-hard evangelical Christians who have said that they would "stone" pagans and gays to death if they felt they wouldn't get caught. I have personally investigated discrimination claims where people who told me they were “good Christians” also told me that they engaged in harassing and discriminatory actions against gays because they “turned their stomachs.”

4. Keeping women as property: I have personally investigated (and unfortunately, substantiated) claims where “good Christian men” have said things to women like “women should be in the kitchen making tortillas” (yes-again-I am in New Mexico)

5. I haven't seen many gay Americans protesting at the funerals of Christians, but I have, unfortunately, witnessed the reverse from radical Christians.

Based on this evidence, I could stereotype all “Christians” as radical, head chopping, gay hating, pagan bashing, “women are property” barbarians. Contrary to this absurd conclusion, however, I have recognize that there are many good, kind, god-fearing, tolerant, wise Christians out there, as well as similarly gifted Muslims Jews, Buddhists, Hindus, Wiccans, Druids etc.

Judging all Muslims by the actions of some, as you have done, is simply intolerance based on ignorance. In many ways this “politics of fear” approach you rely on is the same "politics of fear" approach that is the biggest bar to fixing this country. It is the same politics of fear that has polarized this country for the last eight years, and it prevents discourse and compromise on issues.

A country that is based on government of “The People” must recognize the value of all of “The People” to thrive. Diversity is strength, and hate breeds hate. Stereotyping and targeting any group using only the outliers, as you have done, is counterproductive at best, and destructive, at worst.

Here's an example of pro-Obama bias built into the...

2008-09-20T01:20:00.000-04:00

Here's an example of pro-Obama bias built into the model. Today, Obama is projected to win the popular vote by 1.8% and he has a 71% chance of winning in the electoral college.

Yet on September 16, when McCain was projected to win the popular vote by 2.3%, he was projected to win in the electoral college only 57% of the time.

Regardless of whom you support, we can probably al...

2008-09-20T00:54:00.000-04:00

Regardless of whom you support, we can probably all agree that we have just witnessed two bona fide examples of the "convention bounce". Both candidates performed very impressively immediately after their conventions, only to have all that progress evaporate.

My question to the group is how this could be? How could that many people be that susceptible to changing their minds (and changing them back)?

Gotta love Nate for acting like this was a good po...

2008-09-20T00:49:00.000-04:00

Gotta love Nate for acting like this was a good polling day for BO when John and Sarah closed the gap in 3 out of 4 National polls

1. Wait for the debates before jumping up and dow...

2008-09-20T00:42:00.000-04:00

1. Wait for the debates before jumping up and down or crying-on either side. A small gaffe can cause a BIG problem. I'm thinking lockboxes and the invention of the internet here.

2. In some ways McCain has a better shot overall despite the polls. (Playing with numbers is FUN)
Obama has not closed the deal in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota, New York or Wisconsin. In fact, there is a poll out tonight (Epic-MRA) showing McCain within 1 in Michigan, and a Sienna poll showing him within 5 in NEW YORK of all places. I am by no means qualified to speak to the accuracy of those two polls, but I do note that if McCain wins just ONE of those states he is very likely to win the election, particularly since I find it difficult to believe Obama can carry Indiana, Virgina or Florida. (I won't believe THOSE three states will vote for Obama until it actually happens). In addition, given that in many respects McCain's reds appear more solid than Obama's blues (take a look at some of Nate's percentages), a small change in one or two Kerry states could throw it all to McCain. Overall, I think this is far closer than today's map reflects (which would be consistent with the national polls, anyway).

3. What if the Fed's attempt to stabilize Wall Street WORKS. What if gas prices continue to fall? What if the employment numbers improve, even if only slightly? In the press that will be reported in every headline as "economy sound" or "economic recovery" even if we are clearly worse off than four years ago. What will the general electorate start doing then? Where is the economy THEN in this election? Not quite the same hot-button issue, is it?

4. Think VERY hard about what happens if Palin gives just a "good" performance in the VP debate. In the media, a "good" from Palin will easily beat an OUTSTANDING performance by Biden-regardless of the facts. Since the expectations for her are lower. You can bet she's studying her pit bull tail off-and a pit bull in lipstick is still VERY dangerous.

"Islamic law is taking over America.""Islamic radi...

2008-09-20T00:17:00.000-04:00

"Islamic law is taking over America."
"Islamic radicals who murder homosexuals, treat women as property, and believe it's okay to lie about everything as long as you advance your cause."

Now we know why. Those are REPUBLICANS!