Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Obama and Austin, Take II

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2009-10-08T07:18:40.400-04:00

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2009-09-11T02:34:59.257-04:00

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2009-09-11T02:34:46.744-04:00

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2009-03-11T22:06:00.001-04:00

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2009-03-11T22:06:00.000-04:00

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2009-02-14T02:29:00.000-05:00

I realize this thread is old, and perhaps no one w...

2008-07-26T12:45:00.000-04:00

I realize this thread is old, and perhaps no one will see this. But...

Jason said: 75% of Americans want offshore drilling, but he Wicked Witch of the West says no, keep paying $4 plus for a gallon of gas.

In a study four years ago the Federal Energy Information Administraion completed a projection of ANWR drilling. They concluded that it would teake ten years from the political decision to drill before the first drop of oil would be pumped. It would then take nine years to hit peak production. There are several unkowns that would effect peak production - things like the amount of oil, the quality of the oil, the size of fields are all unkonwn.

In the best case scenario, the EIA projected that in 18 years - at peak production - ANWR oil could lower prices by $1.44 per BARREL, though their mean projection was 75 cents per barrel - and their worst case scenario was that ANWR oil would lower oil costs by 41 cents. These reductions would amount to pennies per gallon in 2028.

McCain had a rare moment of candor when he said that drilling would have no near term benefits other than psychological.

Read the report yourself, it is non-ideological

There's enthusiasm for Obama at the Netroots Natio...

2008-07-21T17:17:00.000-04:00

There's enthusiasm for Obama at the Netroots Nation conference? Holy shit, really?

(rolls eyes)

Err... I wouldn't worry so much about NN folks wan...

2008-07-21T16:54:00.000-04:00

Err... I wouldn't worry so much about NN folks wanting to help out Senate candidates. I think Obama has wellsprings of support in the younger generation (which the demos show isn't exactly the biggest component of the blogger generation).

Also, Obama's campaign is super organized.

Kent, yes, the rural PA voters will jump out of a pickup truck, having never seen a black person before in their life. They'll vote Democrat -- this is a union state.

I don't think you can just dismiss statistics like...

2008-07-21T14:34:00.000-04:00

I don't think you can just dismiss statistics like that! I mean, ALL of the VPs for the past 8 years have been people who shot someone in the face at some point in time! And if you go back to Aaron Burr, you'll see how important that criterion is (Hamilton only made it to the $10 bill, NOT to the presidency).

So it becomes clear that, unless Obama buys a gun, he will NEVER win this election!

"thisniss said... The "Obama must win X state" ...

2008-07-21T12:55:00.000-04:00

"thisniss said...

The "Obama must win X state" arguments are based on a simple fallacy of logic. Anyone visiting a polling site should be able to understand that correlation is not causation. The notion of "belleweather states" has no merit - these states have changed over time, and will change again. Obviously, there are multiple paths to 270 electoral votes. If this weren't the case, the site you're visiting would draw far fewer hits.

It's pretty easy to see cut'n'paste McCain trolling. Illogic, combined with twisted readings of history. Saying that Arkansas and Louisiana "voted against the loser" in '68? Both states went for George Wallace - that's not a vote against Humphrey in Nixon's favor. It's a vote for George Wallace, who remains, in every sense, amongst the greatest losers in American Presidential history."

Dear thisniss:

I'm sorry but you are Banned from this site for excessive use of logic, together with presenting fact based arguments that cause the Trolls' heads to explode.

"Uhhnnn! Not in McCain talking points! Can't handle!" [Kapow!]

and...anyone who wants to lay gas prices at the fe...

2008-07-21T12:36:00.000-04:00

and...

anyone who wants to lay gas prices at the feet of the Democratic Congress needs a review

The "Obama must win X state" arguments are based o...

2008-07-21T12:31:00.000-04:00

The "Obama must win X state" arguments are based on a simple fallacy of logic. Anyone visiting a polling site should be able to understand that correlation is not causation. The notion of "belleweather states" has no merit - these states have changed over time, and will change again. Obviously, there are multiple paths to 270 electoral votes. If this weren't the case, the site you're visiting would draw far fewer hits.

It's pretty easy to see cut'n'paste McCain trolling. Illogic, combined with twisted readings of history. Saying that Arkansas and Louisiana "voted against the loser" in '68? Both states went for George Wallace - that's not a vote against Humphrey in Nixon's favor. It's a vote for George Wallace, who remains, in every sense, amongst the greatest losers in American Presidential history.

Jason wrote:Again, when [Pelosi] took over Congres...

2008-07-20T21:27:00.000-04:00

Jason wrote:

Again, when [Pelosi] took over Congress gasoline was around $2.00 a gallon. Now, the average is around $4.10 a gallon.

Riiiight.... that's the association that most voters will make.

Can't wait till November, when voters turn out en masse to express their frustration with the failed policies of the Pelosi Administration.

/snark

"Any state," sorry.

2008-07-20T19:42:00.000-04:00

"Any state," sorry.

Jason-Comparing July gas prices to November gas pr...

2008-07-20T19:41:00.000-04:00

Jason-

Comparing July gas prices to November gas prices is apples and oranges in pretty much any year and any situation, because of simple supply and demand.

The prices started going up sharply in 2005, not 2006 (this seems to be the right's biggest rewrite of history, that everything started crashing down in 2006.)

1:40--

It's absurd to say any states is going to be demographically identical forever. Technically, they have "decided" elections, but mostly by coincidence...If Obama wins, he almost certainly will be the first President in decades to do so without Tennessee, Arkansas or Kentucky, barring a massive landslide.

I'll assume that a lot of bloggers (the primary au...

2008-07-20T19:01:00.000-04:00

I'll assume that a lot of bloggers (the primary audience and presenters in Austin) think Obama is smart enough to navigate the terrain. Their passion is subdued because they aren't as worried as they were in 2004. On the whole, bloggers really only have one presidential cycle under their belt where the had to write daily/hourly about the campaign in one way or another. Obama hasn't stumbled. He has made some mistakes in the eyes of Left bloggers but he hasn't really stumbled. Obama has admitted he will make mistakes. Kerry in 2004 on the other hand...
It may be over confidence but also the politically experienced bloggers know that Obama wasn't going to be their perfect candidate. No candidate can be. They understand that.
Obama's job is to show the swing voters that he isn't some sleeper cell member or isn't some radical far Left candidate. That's bound to upset some people and bore some others, but, on the whole, I suspect the attendees feel confident that he is smart enough to win in the end. They're less anxious than in 2004. Less anxious may look like less passion.

pete 'bent' kent: people are suckers for making hi...

2008-07-20T19:00:00.000-04:00

pete 'bent' kent: people are suckers for making history - they don't let a bit of water get in the way of that.

Pete Kent said:"All I can say is that it had bette...

2008-07-20T18:41:00.000-04:00

Pete Kent said:

"All I can say is that it had better not be raining in inner city Philadelphia or a lot of black folk may melt off those long lines."

Pete, I usually ignore your spin, but I happened to read this and take great umbrage at it, because you seem to be blaming black voters for being forced to wait _12 HOURS_ in the rain in Ohio in 2004. Very good: Effectively disenfranchise black voters, then blame them, with the added racist implication that "blacks are lazy."

The Republican Party has come a long way since it was founded as the party of liberation. Lincoln and the Radical Republicans of the Reconstruction are turning over in their graves.

All I can say is that it had better not be raining...

2008-07-20T18:16:00.000-04:00

All I can say is that it had better not be raining in inner city Philadelphia or a lot of black folk may melt off those long lines.

I think overconfidence can be bad for any campaign especially when it is based on wishful thinking and not supported by any rationale basis.

For Obama I think the biggest threat will come within the Black community. While most AAs are excited about having one of their own at the top of the ticket he has done nothing to court their vote in any targeted way and there may be a feeling in the community of their having been ignored. I have no access to urban black radio, so I don't know what the talk of the inner city is.

The whole Reverend Wright thing appears to have been handled so as to deal with the sensibilities of white folks. And Jesse Jackson's comments reveal that there is a level of frustration about Obama's outreach to the community and they way in which he addresses it.

The rural voters in PA can jump out of their trucks and vote in five minutes all day long. And they will.

Jason said:"The Democrats argument is high gas pri...

2008-07-20T17:22:00.000-04:00

Jason said:

"The Democrats argument is high gas prices are good and drilling for more oil is bad."

Give us specific citations of Democrats saying that high gas prices are good. I doubt you can. Instead, you are putting words in their mouths and engaging in dishonest partisan bullshit.

Note, too, that the national debt has ballooned out of control. A windfall profits tax on gasoline is one obvious way to decrease the shortfall - something that Republicans used to care about, when they were fiscal conservatives, and very arguably a much more important issue for national security than the price of oil. I doubt you'd prefer a raise in income taxes, though that might be more progressive. People who think that allowing the national debt to balloon further and further out of control is OK are just whistling past the graveyard. THAT'S the big picture.

Obama Project- You are correct. Nate does not pol...

2008-07-20T17:10:00.001-04:00

Obama Project- You are correct. Nate does not poll anybody and is not responsible for the contents of the polls.

He simply rates the polls on which one he thinks is most accurate and assigns a weight.

Obama Project- You are correct. Nate does not pol...

2008-07-20T17:10:00.000-04:00

The number 1 thing that will drive this election w...

2008-07-20T17:07:00.000-04:00

The number 1 thing that will drive this election will be gas prices.

there is nothing else going on in America right now that affects more people than the price of gas and diesel.

The Democrats argument is high gas prices are good and drilling for more oil is bad.

Seventy-five percent of Americans want more drilling. This issue is getting bigger and bigger, as Iraq gets smaller and smaller.

Nancy Pelosi mad an idiot of herself this morning on Cnn blaming everybody but herself for Congress's problems. Again, when she took over Congress gasoline was around $2.00 a gallon. Now, the average is around $4.10 a gallon. Diesel is even higher, which is causing food prices to skyrocket.
And all Nancy Pelosi can say is we tried to raise taxes on Big Oil.

Now, HTF does that lower the price of a gallon of gas? Obama is right with her. The Republican commercials will play her over and over again saying no drilling, no drilling, no drilling and Obama will there saying the same thing.

This is the number one issue.

Nate:When are you planning on updating your projec...

2008-07-20T16:58:00.000-04:00

Nate:

When are you planning on updating your projections of the senate races? There have been some recent polls in Minnesota and Oregon, for example, that could effect your projections.