Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Q&A on Minority Turnout Model

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Did you anywhere show how Obama was going to get t...

2008-05-13T10:32:00.000-04:00

Did you anywhere show how Obama was going to get the Latino vote in the precentages you predict?

That increase was due to Clinton, the assumption that they fall into Obama's lap, given what we know about the black-brown divide, seems naive; and in particular against McCain, which the polls show has just as much strength as Bush did in '00, among Latino voters, if not more.

I find your spreadsheet confusing in it's analysis...

2008-05-12T21:37:00.000-04:00

I find your spreadsheet confusing in it's analysis of Wisconsin. You say that Latinos were 4.3% of the 2004 vote, but according to the exit poll link from your site they were just 2%. Please clarify how you arrived at the 2004 demographic breakdowns. I have a lot of experience working in Wisconsin politics and can tell you that 127,000 latino votes seems almost inconceivable.

One issue you don't address is the Bradley effect ...

2008-05-12T16:25:00.000-04:00

One issue you don't address is the Bradley effect --

how much will white vote that typically works in these models not vote for Obama in general because he is black

I think the most interesting thing about your anal...

2008-05-12T16:04:00.000-04:00

I think the most interesting thing about your analysis shows is how difficult it is going to be to turn VA and FL blue. Money on Richardson or Sharrod Brown getting the VP nod?

"At the same time, the white conservative vote was...

2008-05-12T14:36:00.000-04:00

"At the same time, the white conservative vote was pretty darn mobilized in 2004, and I'm not sure I see the same thing happening this year at a time when the incumbent, Republican president is extremely unpopular, and when John McCain is not particularly well liked by elements of that conservative base."

This may well be true, but this is no way to conduct an analysis. It is simply an elaborate way of saying "Obama will win".

The point perhaps is that the assumption of a larger white turnout is framed in such terms as "counter-mobilization". This is far too sinister. Quite simply, the elections are going to be very interesting and so many people with no more than marginal interest in politics will, this time, bother to vote. Many will be AA, many will be Latinos, many will be young; many will be none of the above. This must be brought into your model and it must be borne in mind when planning the campaign.

Both Poblano and Obama have done very well so far based on hard work. Now is not the time to become complacent, in statistics no more than in politics.

Thanks for taking my question. However, there is o...

2008-05-12T12:18:00.000-04:00

Thanks for taking my question. However, there is one issue I think you still haven't addressed: saturation. Isn't Kerry turnout in OH already much higher than in, say, VA? Doesn't that make additional increases harder? (One of the questions you addressed mentioned "diminishing returns" but you didn't address this part of the question). I can think of several ways to try to account for this, off the top of my head, but without your numbers to play with I can't see which one might help.

Bill said: I have been around blacks and Latinos a...

2008-05-12T11:28:00.000-04:00

Bill said: I have been around blacks and Latinos all my life, and I cannot remember a Latino ever opening a business in a black neighborhood, Orientals yes, Latinos no. Add to that, in every city and every prison I am aware of, the Blacks and Latinos are enemies. How can you automatically conclude the Latinos just because they usually vote Democrat, will vote for a black. I have personally talked to quite a few and worked with several, and have yet to hear any of them say anything good about blacks, why would they vote for one. I am convinced that if Latino registration increases it will be a negative for Obama and a positive for McCain. Convince me otherwise.

Poblano: I thought the analysis was great, but I'd...

2008-05-12T09:18:00.000-04:00

Poblano: I thought the analysis was great, but I'd love to see the final numbers redone with a more conservative youth turnout bonus- say 20 or 25%. I am on a college campus, and while I'm seeing huge enthusiasm, historically youth enthusiasm is very fickle, and I just can't buy a 40% increase, especially after he (inevitably) engages in some of the necessary-but-unpleasant realities of the campaign.

To further comment on that same question, the whol...

2008-05-12T07:28:00.000-04:00

To further comment on that same question, the whole point of that post was to illustrate what is likely to happen if certain other things do happen, though they may be unlikely. Poblano would be even more biased to write off certain scenarios as impossible simply because they haven't happened recently. And, to clarify the point, the best case scenario was called improbable and labelled "the best case scenario" to leave no doubt that it was the absolute best Obama should hope for, which makes it useful because it puts bounds on what sort of ground can be gained through these effects.

"Q: ...you have to realize that it is very difficu...

2008-05-12T06:11:00.000-04:00

"Q: ...you have to realize that it is very difficult for a democrat to get more than 50% of the vote, it has not happened since 1976."

I think you missed another piece of the answer to this loaded question. Because of the presence of 3rd party candidates in many of those elections, Republicans, too have found it difficult to hit 50%.

Reallocate Perot roughly 50/50 (as per most of the analysis) and Nader 90/10 (ditto) and that "phenomenon" becomes less noteworthy.