Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Lessons from the Overseas Trip

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2009-10-08T07:05:52.880-04:00

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2009-09-11T03:01:47.213-04:00

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2009-03-11T22:04:00.001-04:00

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2009-02-14T02:18:00.000-05:00

FreeThinker, I agree about what Obama can do to of...

2008-07-26T21:38:00.000-04:00

FreeThinker, I agree about what Obama can do to offset McCain's promise of cheaper lives through drilling, but there is one additional thing he must do: pound home the numbers comparing those things with drilling.

In a study four years ago the Federal Energy Information Administraion completed a projection of ANWR drilling. They concluded that it would take ten years from the political decision to drill before the first drop of oil would be pumped. It would then take nine years to hit peak production. There are several unkowns that would effect peak production - things like the amount of oil, the quality of the oil, the size of fields are all unknown.

In the best case scenario, the EIA projected that in 18 years - at peak production - ANWR oil could lower prices by $1.44 per BARREL, though their mean projection was 75 cents per barrel - and their worst case scenario was that ANWR oil would lower oil costs by 41 cents. Whether 41 cents or $1.44, these reductions would amount to absolutely nothing for ten years, then pennies per gallon by 2028. Read the non-partisan report.

Even if ANWR exceeds the best case scenario estimate - and even if Gulf oil would quadruple the effect to $6/barrel - the net effect is less than a bad day in the speculative market (between June 5 and 6 the price of oil increased by more than $15/barrel. Are going to jeopardize pristine wilderness to save a few cents per barrel 18 years from now? This is an energy policy?

Obama needs to make this simple. And when seen simply, it is ridiculous.

McCain had a rare moment of candor when he said that drilling would have no near term benefits other than psychological.

Obama needs to sign on to Al Gore's challenge to make us fossil fuel free in ten years. It would immediately create jobs, lower energy costs, and improve our national security situation.

But the simple soundbite that needs to be hammered over and over is that drilling is a placebo. It won't have any effect for years, and it's ultimate effect will be tiny - a miniscule percentage of the worlds oil supply lies in ANWR and FL combined. And he needs to keep quoting McCain's admission of that.

For once, I disagree. Nate's conclusion would be r...

2008-07-26T15:03:00.000-04:00

For once, I disagree. Nate's conclusion would be right only if we assumed that Obama intends to keep the focus permanently on foreign policy, but there is no evidence for that. By contrast, there is a lot of evidence for the fact that Obama's main weakness is his perception as the risky choice. In that regard, his generally well-received trip could help even if there is no lasting bounce in the polls. The fact is that Obama is ahead and he does not need a "game changer", as they say, to win. What he needs is to harden his soft support and assuage doubts about his "riskiness" among undecideds. If all that he achieved with the trip is that his soft supporters are now less likely to change change their mind, then that may not show up in the polls but is in practical terms just as good as winning over a few undecideds as soft supporters.

Poblano should stick to stats.Obama can now return...

2008-07-26T14:44:00.000-04:00

Poblano should stick to stats.

Obama can now return to issues where he holds a 20 point edge on McSame secure in the knowledge that he is quite capable of representing the US to the rest of the world

That not today's Gallup tracking poll was the point of the Tour

Duh

Baseball been berry good to you. So don't give up the day job

Oh, and just to comment on the VP situation, your ...

2008-07-25T23:19:00.000-04:00

Oh, and just to comment on the VP situation, your analysis would but Bayh, Kaine, and Sebelius on the table. Of the three I would prefer Sebelius, because I think she has the strongest track record and the most upside, and I always believe in picking the best talent as a strategy. She also doesn't cost us a seat as either Bayh or Kaine would. But I wouldn't be disappointed with either of the other two choices. They're both quite good, and very savvy picks from an election standpoint. Kaine's pro-life stance might be a sticking point, though.

I think that outside of polling, he had to clear...

2008-07-25T22:58:00.000-04:00

I think that outside of polling, he *had* to clear the "presidential" bar somehow. This was the most time-effective way to grab the public's attention and get that job done.

Now the rest of the debate can be about economic issues and energy and health care. I'm not sure McCain even has an economic platform.

Anna..Obama can do several things other than open ...

2008-07-25T18:36:00.000-04:00

Anna..
Obama can do several things other than open offshore areas for drilling rights immediately. First, he can release oil from the national reserve to stablize prices. Second, he can push through higher milage requirements for fleets. Third, he can request legislation requiring drilling of existing leases or face loss of lease. Fourth he can bring SUV's under milage standards for autos. The oil lease holders are the true speculators, holding their reserves in the ground until their value increases to a tipping point for alternatives, currently synthetic oil from coal. Believe me, the actual reserves are much greater than the "proven" reserves and the Bushies have tripled their value in the world market at our expense. Obama can bring them to heel with a strong Democratic majority in the House and Senate.

Regarding the viral e-mail blasting Obama fro snub...

2008-07-25T17:39:00.000-04:00

Regarding the viral e-mail blasting Obama fro snubbing the troops, snopes.com has identified the allegations in it as "False."

here's the link: http://www.snopes.com/politics/obama/afghanistan.asp

It appears that the good captain wasn't there and that he violated US military regulations by signing a political post with his service status and rank.

I'm also puzzled by his self-identification as "battle captain." I am possibly ignorant, but in the days I spent some time studying military history I never heard that the army had such a rank, and a quick scan on the internet turned up no ground force references to it except in connection with the Soviet army.

As things now stand, I believe this is going to b...

2008-07-25T17:38:00.000-04:00

As things now stand, I believe this is going to be the most depressing presidential election ever held. The ground has shifted so momentuously since the beginning of the primaries.

67% of Americans don't believe climate change is man made. And the Dem energy/oil prices policy is predicated on carbon reduction.

Have you bothered to look at the lastest Pew research on this? Even YOUNG people are moving towards offshore drilling - and there was a 19% movement towards it among Independents. 18% of women have changed their minds and now approve of it.

There is no way Obama can win this election unless he either changes his policy on drilling OR somehow manages to change the way voters perceive it - and that latter I don't believe he can do.

Think for a moment of families who are struggling now to cope with all their budgetary pressures. How the hell do you think they'll react to the idea of having to swap to an electric car? Where are they going to get the money to do that?

And why would you vote for a candidate who promises a windfall tax on oil companies when you know damned well that just means they'll pass that tax on to YOU in higher prices?

It's all too depressing for words.

Market Update: California back to neutral after a...

2008-07-25T17:12:00.000-04:00

Market Update: California back to neutral after an overnight gain of 2.2 and Michigan down .8 for a retrace of 3 in expected electoral votes, to 302 for Obama. Still a gain of 3 on the day, but not unanimous. KY slightly positive and MI going against the trend.

Ohio, no change. I guess the McCain German Restaurant ploy didn't do so well in OH, but touched the heart and soul of MI.

Let's see, 3 a day for the next 25 days gives Obama 377 for Denver...

Obviously Obama has jumped up in the national poll...

2008-07-25T16:57:00.000-04:00

Obviously Obama has jumped up in the national polls over the last couple of days. How meaningful is this?

As yet, not very. Most of the variation in the day to day polling that is not caused by sampling error or Poller Introduced Error is due to people with low involvement and low information being temporarily swayed by very short term influences.

Just as I shrugged off Obama's dip, I do not get elated by this rise. It's still July - show me a trend toward Obama in September and I'll be a lot more enthusiastic.

If it stays this high for the next three weeks, then maybe I'll begin to believe a 5-6 point lead is real.

SarahCambellScott:Excellent analysis of the issue ...

2008-07-25T16:51:00.000-04:00

SarahCambellScott:

Excellent analysis of the issue of Obama's earning at least a certain level of comfort with the public on National Security/Defense?International issues.

Have you ever looked at some of the mathematical psychology models of individual choice? Some 40 years ago I took Math Psych from Clyde Coombs (I think I remember the first name correctly) who at the time was the real guru of the field.

One of the models for individual choice in evaluating options in at least two dimensions is that the individual needs the object of perception (in this case Obama) to have at least a satisfactory level on all the variables. Beyond that, the individual may stress look almost exclusively to other issues, but the minimum level is necessary.

Your description fits that model perfectly.

From my perspective, the market saw a potential ha...

2008-07-25T16:14:00.000-04:00

From my perspective, the market saw a potential hazard (a risk) in Obama going off shore. From two weeks ago his expected EV's dropped from 295 to 294 and back to 295 after a week. The week that followed showed an increase of five to 299, a net gain of 4 as Obama resolved uncertainties in his favor. Today, as of 9:13 PST, the overnight gain was +6 to 305. His performance in Berlin was clearly well recieved by the market with 5 times the average daily movement, and no negative response.

another mike - I know this is probably odd, but I ...

2008-07-25T16:05:00.000-04:00

another mike - I know this is probably odd, but I actually make a concerted effort to watch Fox News and read newspapers with more conservative slants. What I clumsily called the German solider cancellation thing - perhaps I should have come up with a clever x-gate - is already on them. It's my attempt to understand how the other half thinks.

SLScott - Perhaps you're right. But I've already seen plenty of "Obama skips out/disses/etc. Soldiers" headlines. When it's reduced to that, it seems like it's pretty easy to package, even if a half-truth.

Jinchi - B/c what I've read indicates that the Pentagon only told him no video cameras and no campaign staffers. Basically, no media entourage. I feel like that almost makes it worse? Again, it's very easy to spin into the larger Anti-American/Unpatriotic theme.

But if this election is a referendum on Obama, perhaps this does nothing to sway people from one camp to the other, but just makes folks on both sides dig in deeper.

My larger question, where are these undecided voters? For real, everyone I know has an opinion on Obama either way, and hardly any are middle of the road. This myserious swing/independent voter definitely does not seem to exist in metro-Atlanta or GA in general.

Nate, I'm normally you're biggest fan but I totall...

2008-07-25T15:46:00.000-04:00

Nate, I'm normally you're biggest fan but I totally disagree with you on this one. I think that most people will base their decisions on a combination of foreign/domestic policy. They want to vote for Obama for dom but they are slightly scared on foreign policy. The trip is a defensive play. Its point is "I might not be your favorite on foreign policy but I won't be a complete disaster". I think this is a smart preparation for what McCain's main line of attack will be.

Great site for political junkies.New Gallup tracki...

2008-07-25T15:25:00.000-04:00

Great site for political junkies.

New Gallup tracking poll out (July 25) has Obama at 47 and McCain at 41.

Is this the post World Tour bounce?

To complete my comment...The overnight predictive ...

2008-07-25T15:22:00.000-04:00

To complete my comment...

The overnight predictive market response is highly favorable for Obama the day after his Berlin speech.

I read "Home Run for Obama".

Maybe I've missed something, but the only German s...

2008-07-25T15:21:00.000-04:00

Maybe I've missed something, but the only German soldier cancellation story I've heard is that the Pentagon canceled Obama's trip to visit injured troops in Germany.

How does that help McCain?

Ditto what I am reading here. The point was never ...

2008-07-25T15:17:00.000-04:00

Ditto what I am reading here. The point was never McCain versus Obama. The point was Obama as Commander and Chief. He doesn't need to beat McCain. He just needs to pass the Commander and Chief threshhold. It's a subtle point that makes all the difference. Foreign policy isn't going to turn this election. The economy is. But, Obama had to pass the commander and chief threshold to talk about the economy. It was actually a very smart play over time IMO.

The markets give Obama a boost of 6 in the expecte...

2008-07-25T15:16:00.000-04:00

The markets give Obama a boost of 6 in the expected number of electoral votes, to 305.5. This translates to an increase in the probability of 270 or more for Obama of 3.3%, to 68.5%. The corresponding change in the expected margin is 12 electoral votes. The overnight change was all positive, with 9 states and DC increasing expectations. Who needs polls?