Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Will Iowans Uphold Gay Marriage?

This post has been removed by the author. 生髮口罩糖尿...

2009-11-24T03:06:44.864-05:00

This post has been removed by the author.
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I'm from mississippi, and I'm gay. Actually Missis...

2009-11-22T15:42:05.370-05:00

I'm from mississippi, and I'm gay. Actually Mississippians dislike intellectuals more than gays, but put the two together and you've got redneck kryptonite.

May I ask how the two latest polls in Washington a...

2009-11-05T17:28:24.762-05:00

May I ask how the two latest polls in Washington and Maine fit into the predictions? An update would be great, thanks.

Guess your model needs tweaking, based on the rece...

2009-11-04T11:10:26.636-05:00

Guess your model needs tweaking, based on the recent Maine election results. Too bad. I would have liked to believe this.

Well unfortunately you were wrong about Maine...

2009-11-04T01:59:20.365-05:00

Well unfortunately you were wrong about Maine...

Here is a local (VA) writer who mentions you.... f...

2009-10-15T14:32:40.127-04:00

Here is a local (VA) writer who mentions you.... full disclosure: she is my sister-in-law. Great read though!

http://www.24sevencities.com/features/news/politics/why-was-this-family-denied-entrance-to-mallory-country-club.html

A February 2008 Iowa Poll conducted by The Des Moi...

2009-10-15T12:05:49.490-04:00

A February 2008 Iowa Poll conducted by The Des Moines Register showed that most Iowans believed marriage involves one man and one woman. However, the poll also showed that a majority of Iowa adults supported civil unions that would grant benefits to gay couples similar to those offered to married heterosexuals. The Republicans in the Iowa legislature are already making noise about trying to amend the Constitution to legalize discrimination, but Democrats have majorities in both houses of the State Legislature, and Iowa has a Democratic Governor. "House Speaker Pat Murphy, D-Dubuque, has indicated he would consider any attempt to offer the resolution for a constitutional amendment to be out of order procedurally this year". Senator Gronstal, the Senate Majority Leader said as long as he's in office a constitutional amendment will never happen. "On Wednesday, Gov. Culver said the court ruling validated his religious view that churches in Iowa are free to define marriage as solely between one man and one woman. But the justices unanimously decided the Iowa Constitution demands equal protection for all citizens who wish to be married under civil law regardless of gender. For that reason, Culver said he would be reluctant to support a constitutional amendment that would effectively bar same-sex marriage because the court ruled such action would be unlawful and discriminatory." The Iowa Supreme Court specifically stated their decision applies to civil marriage, not religious marriage, maintaining the separation of church and state. Each church can still decide for themselves for whom to perform marriage ceremonies.

The Iowa constitution doesn't say an amendment has to be passed two successive years - but two successive legislative sessions. Like the U.S. Congress, the Iowa legislature is elected in an even year and the session lasts for the two calender years immediately following. The legislators elected in Nov. 2008 are serving in a session that lasts from Jan 2009 - Dec 2010. Murphy/Gronstal have said they will not let a constitutional amendment come to a vote during this session. That means the next session (2011-2012) would be the first possible session an amendment could be passed at. It would have to be passed again in the following session (2013-2014), which means the earliest it could come to a public vote would be 2014/2015. I highly doubt that after two and four years of seeing that same-sex marriages have not destroyed the state, legislators would vote to pass such an amendment. In the highly unlikely event that they do, it seems equally unlikely that after after 5-6 years of living with same-sex marriage, knowing couples have done so, seeing that hetero and church rights haven't been taken away, a majority of Iowans would vote to repel a right, and the mathematical model of this site shows they would not choose to do so.

如果想要節省搬家費用，有些搬家公司有提供全省的搬家服務，這是因為幫客戶搬家時將家具由台北搬家搬到南部...

2009-09-20T10:58:04.550-04:00

如果想要節省搬家費用，有些搬家公司有提供全省的搬家服務，這是因為幫客戶搬家時將家具由台北搬家搬到南部，去程或回程是空車，遠距離、少數大型物件的搬運，就可以利用這樣的回頭車，搬家運費較便宜是最大優點，但缺點是需要事先預約，且要配合搬家公司車趟時間。但要提醒消費者的是即使找回頭車，也應該謹慎簽約，以保障自己的權益。因為有些搬家公司自行設計契約，內容簡陋，預藏陷阱，消費者一時不察簽約後，搬家業者可能會惡性加價，所以選擇搬家公司，最好請三家左右搬家業者來估價，做一番比較。
大台北搬家公司提供中和搬家、桃園搬家及板橋搬家等為主的搬家服務，為政府立案合法經營之精緻搬家公司。若您有台北搬家或桃園搬家需求可電洽搬家公司，搬家公司就會派專人到您府上，確立搬家物品數量及種類進行免費估價，提供最合適的搬家服務方式及報價，並簽訂專業搬家契約書，保障消費者權益，提供免費搬家包裝、衣箱、膠帶等包裝材料供您整理打包使用。好的搬家公司會秉持一貫優良搬家服務態度，誠實收費，絕不額外亂加價，另提供有回頭車及台北搬家打包服務。

把滿足人們的要求放在首位來考量，在室內設計時就會充分考慮使用功能，使室內環境合理化、舒適化、科學化；...

2009-09-20T10:57:41.686-04:00

把滿足人們的要求放在首位來考量，在室內設計時就會充分考慮使用功能，使室內環境合理化、舒適化、科學化；要考慮人們的活動規律處理好空間設計、空間尺寸及空間比例；在進行室內設計時要聽取使用者的意見，然後對自己的設計進行修改，要充分展現出室內設計的人性化，也就是說室內裝潢設計要滿足客戶的一些需求，不能滿足客戶需求的室內裝修設計不是一個好的設計。
選擇正規的室內裝潢公司，質量有保證，有些人認為凡事親力親為就可以節省很多開支，然而搭上無數時間後，房子的室內裝潢效果卻不盡如人意，如果業主有一定經濟能力進行較高檔次的室內裝潢，專家認為最好還是選擇正規的室內設計公司為宜。因為專業的室內設計師在施工上有經驗，做工有保證外，由於他們經常大批量選材，質量穩定且價格相對較低，一次重大的室內設計裝潢工程，會因為這樣的花費，而有高品質的成果，相對而言，反而降低成本。OA辦公家具的設計亦然。

如果想要節省搬家費用，有些搬家公司有提供全省的搬家服務，這是因為幫客戶搬家時將家具由台北搬家搬到南部...

2009-09-20T10:57:25.474-04:00

徵信社是屬於民間的營利性質的調查機構，針對個人、企業提供不同的徵信調查服務。針對個人徵信方面，由於屬...

2009-09-20T10:57:07.115-04:00

徵信社是屬於民間的營利性質的調查機構，針對個人、企業提供不同的徵信調查服務。針對個人徵信方面，由於屬於隱私面，例如：婚前徵信-為了調查個人的日常交友及感情狀況；至於個人資料及背景資料等提供，徵信社也容易因個資外洩，而侵害個人隱私權等觸犯了法律的地雷。徵信社對於企業徵信的部分，避免淪為商業間諜之虞，還要小心取得證據的合法性。

I believe we need more time to get our S**t togeth...

2009-08-15T13:45:45.531-04:00

I believe we need more time to get our S**t together before we put the issue yp for a vote again. Time to get organized, time to get out the facts, etc. Another critical factor is that the LGBT community and its allies are not in agreement about when we stand the best chance of over turning Prop 8. And, as far as I can tell the LGBT community is not organized well enough to conduct a winning campaign in 2010. Raising enough $$ to collect signatures for ballot approval is just the first baby step.

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幼児教室の春季講習幼児教室の講習の掛け持ちについて意見を聞かせてください。留学なら、DEOW留...

2009-07-13T22:46:38.702-04:00

幼児教室の春季講習
幼児教室の講習の掛け持ちについて意見を聞かせてください。
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2009-07-13T22:45:41.300-04:00

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How did Alaska end up in 2009??

2009-06-23T00:39:27.155-04:00

How did Alaska end up in 2009??

Two things, a question concerning Utah, and a comm...

2009-06-18T10:59:30.344-04:00

Two things, a question concerning Utah, and a comment regarding Florida. In Utah, a white Mormons counted as White evangelicals? In Florida, in 2008 62% of voters voted against same-sex marriage. A constituional amendment in Florida requires a 60% supermajoirty. This means that a constiutional amendment to allow same-sex marriage would not pass until oppostion to same-sex marriage has sunk to below 40%. If opposition to same-sex marriage shrinks 12 points in 5 years, it would take 4-5 more years to pass a repeal. So same-sex marriage in Florida wouldn't pass until 2018.

This is an awesome analysis. I hope there is a shi...

2009-06-18T10:19:58.615-04:00

This is an awesome analysis. I hope there is a shift in the paradigm and it all happens faster--but even this is comforting.

You backers of perv "marriage" are so kidding your...

2009-05-04T00:07:00.000-04:00

You backers of perv "marriage" are so kidding yourselves. Just because you managed to sneak perv "marriage" into law in less than a handful of states doesn't mean that people in general are more supportive of it. Far from it. Check out the 29 states that took decisive steps to ban such an abomination. Poor ol' Iowa didn't do that and has paid the price. But I'm sure that the people will have a say in it, and perv "marriage" will be rightfully and neatly banned. Start emptying your closets and prepare to move back in. The more you push, the more you're going to get pushed back, especially if people aren't allowed to vote on the matter.

You backers of perv "marriage" are so kidding your...

2009-05-04T00:03:00.000-04:00

You backers of perv "marriage" are so kidding yourselves. Just because you managed to sneak perv "marriage" into law in less than a handful of states doesn't mean that people in general are more supportive of it. Far from it. Check out the 29 states that took decisive steps to ban such an abomination. Poor ol' Iowa didn't do that and has paid the price. But I'm sure that the Iowan people will have a say in it, and perv "marriage" will be rightfully and neatly banned. Start emptying your closets and prepare to move back in. The more you push, the more you'll be pushed back. You want equal rights in marriage, act equally - bond with someone of the opposite gender, freaks!

Juvanya, First I am offended that you want people ...

2009-05-02T04:31:00.000-04:00

Juvanya,
First I am offended that you want people like your gay friends, and people like me, to die out. However, if that is truly what you believe, then I still don't understand the logic for opposing gay marriage. For one thing, not all same-sex couples who are married will have children. If they do decide to have children, many will choose adoption. Also many couples will have children from a previous heterosexual marriage, so there will be no need to have further children. So there will be comparatively very few children that that will be born after the marriage that will also share DNA with with their gay or bi parent. The reasoning is that every birth to a same-sex couple will have to be planned, as opposed to opposite-sex couples that have a high-rate of "ooops" pregnancies.

Gays and bi's have many times been in opposite-sex marriages and have reproduced their DNA throughout history. This is one of the reasons that gays and bi's haven't "died out." So, actually, gay marriage might help further your cause, because then there wouldn't be as many gay people trying to deny who they are by having heterosexual sex which puts them at a high risk for pregnancy. So if gay people can marry other gay people then they will most likely have less children than if they had married someone of the opposite gender.

Also, with a world full of overpopulation, why would you want gays to die out? Wouldn't it help control the population to keep us around?

Even if gays are "mutations," how does it follow that all mutations should die out? Isn't evolution full of mutations. What if one of the chimpanzees had killed off the mutated missing link, then humans wouldn't have been here to discuss these things.

In any case, I think it is gay procreation that you are opposed to, not gay marriage. I am one of many people who has chosen to be childless, and yet I still desire to be married.

Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Will Iowans Uphold Gay Marriage?

This post has been removed by the author. 生髮 口罩 糖尿...

I'm from mississippi, and I'm gay. Actually Missis...

May I ask how the two latest polls in Washington a...

Guess your model needs tweaking, based on the rece...

Well unfortunately you were wrong about Maine...

Here is a local (VA) writer who mentions you.... f...

A February 2008 Iowa Poll conducted by The Des Moi...

如果想要節省搬家費用，有些搬家公司有提供全省的搬家服務，這是因為幫客戶搬家時將家具由台北搬家搬到南部...

把滿足人們的要求放在首位來考量，在室內設計時就會充分考慮使用功能，使室內環境合理化、舒適化、科學化；...

如果想要節省搬家費用，有些搬家公司有提供全省的搬家服務，這是因為幫客戶搬家時將家具由台北搬家搬到南部...

徵信社是屬於民間的營利性質的調查機構，針對個人、企業提供不同的徵信調查服務。針對個人徵信方面，由於屬...

I believe we need more time to get our S**t togeth...

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幼児教室の春季講習 幼児教室の講習の掛け持ちについて意見を聞かせてください。 留学なら、DEOW留...

ダンボール段ボール箱、板)・プチプチ（エアキャップ）・梱包資材（用品）の激安通販(販売)専門店です。...

How did Alaska end up in 2009??

Two things, a question concerning Utah, and a comm...

This is an awesome analysis. I hope there is a shi...

You backers of perv "marriage" are so kidding your...

You backers of perv "marriage" are so kidding your...

Juvanya, First I am offended that you want people ...

This post has been removed by the author. 生髮口罩糖尿...

キャッシング網頁設計クレジットカード　現金化ダンボール留学水　通販ウィークリ...

幼児教室の春季講習幼児教室の講習の掛け持ちについて意見を聞かせてください。留学なら、DEOW留...