Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Tea Leaves

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2009-09-10T01:26:27.253-04:00

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2009-03-11T05:33:00.001-04:00

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2009-03-11T05:33:00.000-04:00

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2009-02-12T22:48:00.000-05:00

I grew up in Georgia and there are two things to r...

2008-06-21T07:14:00.000-04:00

I grew up in Georgia and there are two things to remember:

1) The Atlanta Metro area has the votes today.

2) Atlanta is considered one of, if not the, best places in the country to be Black.

If the south side of Atlanta showes up in record numbers, all bets based on past history are off.

Georgia is not a question of economics, per se.The...

2008-06-18T03:32:00.000-04:00

Georgia is not a question of economics, per se.

The thing about Georgia is how far Right Republican Georgia is, and what kinds of appeals McCain would have to make to hold it.

Contesting Georgia is akin to being able to conjure the Republican Primary into continuing until November. Right-wing statements to motivate the authoritarian and theocratic base of the Republican Party in Georgia will alienate independent voters elsewhere.

Sure seems to me that Indiana and Virginia are goi...

2008-06-18T02:13:00.000-04:00

Sure seems to me that Indiana and Virginia are going to be added to the large (>10 EV) swing states, along with OH, PA, and FL. Very interesting election coming up!

I agree with Peter... also, the raw number of vote...

2008-06-17T23:04:00.000-04:00

I agree with Peter... also, the raw number of votes in Indiana is small enough that they will be able to run a solid field program without the "fellows." I'm sure they'll have staff there very soon. The whole point of the fellows program as I understand it is to be a training ground for new organizers, and to help build the volunteer army in states where they need to contact huge numbers of voters to win.

The Obama strategy seems pretty obvious to me: use their proven organizing advantage to compete in as many states as possible, so that when October rolls around they will have not one or two paths to 270, but many. Plus, if they do well in MORE than a few of those states Kerry lost, it's going to be a blow out.

There is a serious error in this post. The origina...

2008-06-17T20:25:00.001-04:00

There is a serious error in this post. The original Obama campaign message was not that it is "focusing its Organizing Fellows program" in these 17 states, it was that in these states the program "need[s] the most resources." That's a significant difference that explains why Indiana was not included: the principal area where the organizing program pays off in Indiana is in Lake County, which is right next to Chicago; the Obama campaign has no shortage of resources (infrastructure & volunteers) in this part of the country.

I don't think anyone has done a GA poll with Bob B...

2008-06-17T20:25:00.000-04:00

I don't think anyone has done a GA poll with Bob Barr in it; I'd be curious to see how bad he hurts McCain.

I live in Newt's old district (right next door to Barr's old district); this is a VERY red area of Metro Atlanta. But I'm seeing as many Obama stickers on cars as i do McCain stickers. During the past 2 presidential cycles, "W" stickers outnumbered everything 10:1. There is no passion for McCain here. IF there is one state where Barr can do for Obama what Nader did for Bush, this is it. IF Obama can register the 500k of unregistered Blacks, this could be interesting. There are also lots of Hispanics that nobody talks about. Over and above that, where do you think the people who made GA grow so fast come from....Mississippi? No, they come from NY, NJ, MA, Philly, Chicago, etc. You have lots of fed up Latte and Red wine drinking Whites (present company) and an a town full of thriving middle and upper class Black professionals. You have 10 HBCUs (Black Colleges) in the state with kids chomping at the bit to do something to help. Sure, this state is still full of Obama-haters, but one of his first really big rallies was 20k people at GA Tech.

The state Republican party has fractures. The Governor fights with the legislature. I don't care if this is just a distraction to draw McCain's resources, it might be worth it

The Georgia Democratic party is a shambles. Remem...

2008-06-17T16:35:00.000-04:00

The Georgia Democratic party is a shambles. Remember why Georgia is somewhat different from other southern states: - It "fell" later.

Georgia's first GOP governor since reconstruction got elected in 2002. Both houses of the legislature flipped immediately afterwards - legislators switched parties like rats off a sinking ship.

This was a significant institutional hit for the state Dem party, which still hasn't recovered.

This has two implications - first, it makes Georgia harder to pick up than it would otherwise seem. Second, it means that an effort to prop up the state party might be more useful than other states.

These two factors work against each other, but I suspect, in the short term (through November) that the first would win out.

Basically, I don't see Georgia flipping. But, in the medium term, the work wouldn't be wasted.

Nate,There is one clear scenario where Obama could...

2008-06-17T14:40:00.000-04:00

Nate,

There is one clear scenario where Obama could win Georgia but not North Carolina: If McCain fights tooth and nail in NC and ignores GA. So long as GA is a plausible pick-up (which I think it is given Barr), then this is just part of the effort to spread McCain's time and resources thin.

Isn't Bob Barr from Georgia? He should pull McCai...

2008-06-17T14:13:00.000-04:00

Isn't Bob Barr from Georgia? He should pull McCain voters.

Maybe that combined with a voter registration drive is the logic for Georgia.

mrick

In 1988 Dukakis lost the national vote by 7.5% and...

2008-06-17T13:56:00.000-04:00

In 1988 Dukakis lost the national vote by 7.5% and he got 39.7% in IN, in 2004 Kerry lost the national vote by 2.5%, and he got 39.2% in IN.
Thats a Republican trend.

Yes Obama has advantages that Kerry didn't (Obamaniacs descending into Lake county). He will close the gap, but make it a squeaker? Not gonna happen [all bets are off in an Obama 400 EV landslide]

I am also in North Dakota. The state is unique in...

2008-06-17T13:37:00.000-04:00

I am also in North Dakota. The state is unique in that it does not actually have voter registration--you just have to show up with your driver's license or some other ID to prove that you live in your precinct. This may be the reason both candidates left it off their lists. McCain has been running ads here.

FWIW, PPP has Barack up a solid 11 in Ohio with eq...

2008-06-17T13:27:00.000-04:00

FWIW, PPP has Barack up a solid 11 in Ohio with equal power on both sides of the gender gap and strong party support.

Nate,Interesting analysis again, and I agree that ...

2008-06-17T13:13:00.000-04:00

Nate,
Interesting analysis again, and I agree that Obama should put more effort into Indiana.

But, as a Georgia resident, I do not trust any of the polling here. It's very easy to get Obama to 45% of the vote in the general election (see this piece from the Savannah Morning News that quotes some of my computations: http://savannahnow.com/node/511914). As I've noted before, there's no great enthusiasm for McCain here among evangelicals or among fiscal conservatives, and McCain would be crazy to assume that he will win Georgia, considering that it's entirely likely that 30% of the electorate will be African-American, and 4% Latino.

If the Obama campaign is smart, and I think they obviously are, they will conceive a strategy that could win the election without MI, FL, OH, or PA. I know this is a very unlikely scenario, but wins in the following states get to 270: WA, OR, CA, NM, MN, IA, WI, IL, GA, NC, VA, MD, NJ, CT, MA, NY, VT, ME.

Of course, it is likely that if Obama wins NC, he will have a landslide victory, and also likely that McCain would have a solid electoral college victory if he won those four big states.

Still, the polls so far do not seem to reflect the likelihood that Obama will be able to shift the demographics of the turnout. And states like Georgia and North Carolina seem prime for the taking.

He'd be wise to come in to North Dakota. I've been...

2008-06-17T12:51:00.000-04:00

He'd be wise to come in to North Dakota. I've been softening people up here for months. Now he just needs to come and collect them...

Another possibility is that the purpose of Organiz...

2008-06-17T12:47:00.000-04:00

Another possibility is that the purpose of Organizing Fellows is not solely winning the presidential election. The advantage of coming from a community organizing background is that Obama is much more aware of the support he'll need to actually get policies enacted and move the country in a positive direction. Even if he doesn't win Georgia, getting more Democrats involved in the political process there and getting more Democrats elected there will be positive for his agenda.

There's an obvious caution that he shouldn't be overconfident about winning, but look at the primaries -- when you have an advantage in money and volunteers, you can work to win everything you can get, not just the minimum you need. That advantage is even more pronounced now than it was in the primaries.

Maybe in the next version of this chart you can in...

2008-06-17T12:45:00.000-04:00

Maybe in the next version of this chart you can include a column for contested U.S. Senate races.

You don't understand. Georgia and Arizona are abso...

2008-06-17T12:41:00.000-04:00

You don't understand. Georgia and Arizona are absolutely key. In case of a civil war, you must keep the blue zone contiguous with Canada, even if you should win Florida.

As many people mentioned and I think it is importa...

2008-06-17T12:19:00.000-04:00

As many people mentioned and I think it is important to emphasize, I do not believe that just becuase these states are the focus of the Obama Organizing Fellows means they are the only states with his attention. From my experience with the campaign, I know there will be attention given to North Dakota, Montana, and Alaska. Obama has more money than McCain. We will be seeing him play in many more states than McCain can dream of.

It seems that when you send out your organizers, y...

2008-06-17T12:15:00.000-04:00

It seems that when you send out your organizers, you don't want to leave any geographical area uncovered, even if the chance of winning in that specific state is low.

In the traditional Deep South, what would be the most likely swing state to be swung?

I too am a life-long resident of the Hoosier state...

2008-06-17T11:25:00.000-04:00

I too am a life-long resident of the Hoosier state. I agree with Kevin that there is very little excitement for McCain and the best opportunity in decades for a Dem to carry Indiana is upon us. I disagree with "Kiran" who stated the State is becoming "more republican." Indianapolis/Central Indiana is the FASTEST growing major metro in the entire midwest. Out-pacing MSP, Chicago, and Columbus, OH. Marion County is becoming more blue by the day, despite the recent mayoral upset by Republican Ballard (that had nothing to with party, everything to do with taxes/incumbents).

I think that the Dems should have taken note from the primary. Spend some time and money here and results will follow. Why Obama doesn't see this is beyond me. We are a manufacturing state that has been just as devestated as Ohio and Michigan (if not more) and we care about the same things.

The republicans are already starting with their "anti-gay rights" agenda in hopes of scaring the conservatives to the polls. We Hoosiers deserve better than this. Gay rights have no baring on my pocket, my ability to get a job, or getting us the heck out of Iraq and winning in Afganistan.

FYI, Hamilton County is red because it is the primary suburban county to Indianapolis. The two wealthiest cities/towns in the State are there, Carmel and Zionsville.

obama up by 11 in Ohio? that's what the new PPP po...

2008-06-17T11:23:00.000-04:00

obama up by 11 in Ohio? that's what the new PPP poll says, although the crosstabs look funky:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/6/17/104624/677/740/537255