Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Today's Polls, 10/13

I recently came accross your blog and have been re...

2009-04-03T21:56:00.000-04:00

I recently came accross your blog and have been reading along. I thought I would leave my first comment. I don't know what to say except that I have enjoyed reading. Nice blog. I will keep visiting this blog very often.

Ruth

http://besttoddler.com

I recently came accross your blog and have been re...

2009-04-03T02:59:00.000-04:00

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2009-02-09T02:30:00.000-05:00

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2009-01-18T02:29:00.000-05:00

If you take the difference between 538's projectio...

2008-10-14T18:48:00.000-04:00

If you take the difference between 538's projections and 2004, state-by-state, you get:
MA -4.9
CT 7.7
ME 3.7
NH 5.6
RI 0.9
VT 7.6
NY 5.0
NJ 5.5
MD 11.4
DC -10.7
DE 15.2
FL 9.9
GA 11.4
NC 14.0
VA 14.7
SC 18.2
TX 12.9
AL 5.8
LA 7.3
MS 12.1
MO 9.2
TN 0.4
KY 7.1
OK 6.4
AR 1.7
WV 12.1
PA 8.0
OH 5.7
MI 6.5
IN 21.5
IL 10.5
WI 10.7
MN 6.1
IA 12.9
KS 13.3
NE 19.4
ND 22.1
SD 13.1
AZ 2.2
CO 12.0
NM 10.2
NV 6.6
UT 14.5
ID 13.0
MT 15.4
WY 18.2
AK 12.7
CA 7.4
WA 5.6
OR 10.7
HI 24.9
Which leads to some questions: What makes West Virginia, suddenly, so different from its neighbors Arkansas and Kentucky? Are the huge leaps in the states Obama has no chance in, and presumably haven't been polled much (South Dakota, Wyoming, Nebraska) real or a glitch in the model? Why is Indiana so qualitatively different than its rust belt and north central neighbors, where Obama's gains have been more modest and consistent? Does the overall picture, with the bigger gains in the south and northwest, show that, while Democrats are reaching a "ceiling" in the northeast and Pacific regions, the future is bright for a broader, bluer America in all 50 states?

Nate,First, I very much appreciate your site. I re...

2008-10-14T18:12:00.000-04:00

Nate,

First, I very much appreciate your site. I read it daily and have forwarded it to a number of people.

I live in Indiana and have been very actively campaigning out of the Washington Township field office. I note that you have IN leaning DEM today. Can you explain the "trend adjusted" number and how this is derived? Perhaps this is explained somewhere on your site.

Think BLUE Indiana!

Thank you for your time in answering this.

On McCain going negative -I think after the debate...

2008-10-14T16:47:00.000-04:00

On McCain going negative -

I think after the debate he is going to go all out with the socialist charge, using the "New Party" connection. I don't think McCain wants to be seen as trying to paint Obama as a terrorist however. I think the whole Ayres thing was to try to establish a pattern/theme in people's mind so that the socialist/"New Party" charge would be seen as a continuation of that pattern.

Well, I made phone calls for Obama today through t...

2008-10-14T14:23:00.000-04:00

Well, I made phone calls for Obama today through the website. Most were no answers, but of the 5 people I spoke with, 4 told me they were supporting Obama and were enthusiastic about it, and the fifth hung up on me. This is in Pennsylvania by the way. Just my anecdotal support for the current trends!

I know this post is too far down to really be visi...

2008-10-14T11:37:00.000-04:00

I know this post is too far down to really be visible, but I think it's pertinent.

On the question of two LV models from Gallup, Jay Cost has a good piece. Yes, I know it's on RCP—not very well-loved here—but really, the HorceRace blog is top-notch.

I live in far northern Illinois (Vernon Hills)and ...

2008-10-14T10:07:00.000-04:00

I live in far northern Illinois (Vernon Hills)and am supposed to go up to Milwaukee Sunday to canvass for Obama. Looking at the polls is it worth it? Should I just start celebrating and get drunk?

Obama winning independents and yet leading McCain ...

2008-10-14T07:57:00.000-04:00

Obama winning independents and yet leading McCain by just 2 in IBD/TIPP? Ridiculous.

What would be wrong in treating the two Gallup ver...

2008-10-14T07:15:00.000-04:00

What would be wrong in treating the two Gallup versions of poll results as two independent polls, and including both of them in the model?

mc9cain:Obama leading by 37 points in NY is not go...

2008-10-14T04:56:00.000-04:00

mc9cain:
Obama leading by 37 points in NY is not good news. If he's gaining a huge lead in NY and the nationwide polls are stable, it likely means he's slightly losing ground elsewhere. There may be slight inconsistencies between nationwide polls and state polls, as well as those between different pollsters - but, still, racking up huge margins in big states like NY and CA is never a good idea in a winner-takes-all race.

Obama is not American, he is a Muslim terrorist ex...

2008-10-14T04:23:00.000-04:00

Obama is not American, he is a Muslim terrorist experiment to destroy the USA!!

MAN WHAT PEOPLE ARE SAYING TO JUSTIFY VOTING FOR MCCAIN!

Ok, now to what I originally wanted to say. The best result of the day for Obama was the NY +33 result. Ok, ok NY is as blue as the ocean anyway but a +33 in New York means a great deal of things.

1. The place will be a democrat given for the decades to come

2. The New York minorities (among them Jews and Asian Americans) are almost unanimously backing Obama and this at least hints that big O has solidified his position with them nationally.

3. It is next to impossible to lose the popular vote if one gets +33 in New York, +16 in California, +15 in Illinois and +10 in PA. I know it is an electoral system but what fun is a landslide without huge gaps in the popular vote? (not to mention the mandate and all.)

Anyone born on american soil is automatically a US...

2008-10-14T03:59:00.000-04:00

Anyone born on american soil is automatically a US citizen at birth.

However, if you are born in a foreign country, BOTH of your parents have to be Americans in order for you to automatically be a US citizen. If only one parent is American and you are born overseas, things get way more complicated.

Obama's paternal grandmother is still alive and she has proudly said in the past that she was present when Barack was supposedly born in a Kenyan hospital.

"and (less interestingly) in Oregon" -- as someone...

2008-10-14T02:24:00.000-04:00

"and (less interestingly) in Oregon" -- as someone who lives in Oregon, I disagree.

Seeing Obama's jump in the polls was the first time I thought to myself that Merkley is likely up in the senate race against Smith.

I really wish Obama would spend some resources in ...

2008-10-14T02:00:00.000-04:00

I really wish Obama would spend some resources in Texas, I know it seems like a dead red state but the few polls that have shown up have ranged from McCain +20 all the way down to McCain +8 -- perhaps the application of some resources, even a few campaign stops might cut it dangerously close, which even if it doesn't flip Texas, builds the groundwork for future campaigns and forces McSame to defend yet another strong red state.

Lord knows Obama has the money to spend if he needs to, so why not go out on a limb and take a shot? The same philosophy applies to Montana and North Dakota, just some TLC and a personal appearance might be enough to force the races there to close to 50% if not flip them. Arkansas is only McCain +9, it's a small state but there's an opening. Georgia, McCain only +9 to +3, attack it! Mississippi, +13 to +8 and a hot open Senate race, attack!!

At this point, with Obama up so broadly, it would be a good idea now to expand the battlefield as much as possible, to not only force McCain to commit resources he doesn't have, but to also on election day create as broad a mandate as possible, over as many parts of the country as possible. Of course, the deep south is probably impenetrable, excepting AR/MS/GA, which could be made very close, but the rockies aren't bad off and should be secured for this and fuure campaigns.

Even a small commitment of resources now has the potential to pay off huge, as McSame really is taking a lot of his supposed base states for granted. Expand the field, Barack! Make more purple!

Pardon me if someone already said this, but with t...

2008-10-14T01:58:00.000-04:00

Pardon me if someone already said this, but with the projected average of simulations at 359.8, Obama's now more than 2:1 ahead of McCain! That's a landslide as far as I'm concerned, but no reason to stop there, let's get 375 or even 400+!

Not a tipping point state in this or probably any ...

2008-10-14T01:48:00.000-04:00

Not a tipping point state in this or probably any other election, I realize, but pleasantly surprised to see Obama competitive in North Dakota this late in the season. He has visited the state 3 times or so after winning its caucuses on Super Tuesday, so his team must have seen something here early on, even if they did withdraw their investment some time ago.
I still think a win is plausible here, although only as part of a ~350 EV scenario.

funny how the new mccain strategies are the same f...

2008-10-14T00:44:00.000-04:00

funny how the new mccain strategies are the same failed hillary ones (<3 hillary)

Well, I've seen a lot of trolls posting elsewhere ...

2008-10-14T00:37:00.000-04:00

Well, I've seen a lot of trolls posting elsewhere that the market responds unfavorably to Obama's rise in the polls. Guess that hypothesis is blown out of the water, eh trolls?

But in the post hoc ergo propter hoc department, I've noticed that the market tanks whenever the McCain camp launches a major smear campaign against Obama. Notice too that the market recovers when the McCain camp promises to lay off....

aman-I think the "I never wanted it anyway" zero t...

2008-10-14T00:34:00.000-04:00

aman-

I think the "I never wanted it anyway" zero term strategy is all he has now.

Palin was the anchor, the economy was the rising water, he is drowning.

I wonder if McCain will pull the "one term" trick ...

2008-10-14T00:29:00.000-04:00

I wonder if McCain will pull the "one term" trick out of the hat in an effort at a final gamechanger...

cat-RNC having money is kinda bad, but the the RNC...

2008-10-14T00:20:00.000-04:00

cat-

RNC having money is kinda bad, but the the RNC is limited as it can only spend money on negative ads and the negative ads are not working for McCain. This produces a catch 22, they have money, but they cannot spend it to support the candidate in the way he needs.

Obama is in a much better position, particualrly if he raised 100 mil last month and another 100 mil this month. He can spend and anything.

bugstomper-Go back to killing bugs. The document ...

2008-10-14T00:18:00.000-04:00

bugstomper-

Go back to killing bugs. The document he produced is not a court order, and has no force. Most Federal Courts are too damn lazy to produce their own docs and you turn in a "proposed order" when you file. That is all it is, it holds no force of law and should not be used.

The story has been rebuked, Obama is a citizen. These stories originated with an insane man, they are delusions.