Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Presidential Debate Post-Mortem: Live From Oxford

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2009-10-08T03:17:26.295-04:00

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2009-03-12T02:27:00.001-04:00

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2009-03-12T02:27:00.000-04:00

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2009-01-18T08:54:00.000-05:00

We will have to agree to disagree on Obama interru...

2008-09-28T19:41:00.000-04:00

We will have to agree to disagree on Obama interrupting McCain I guess.

We can agree that petekent is a lying puke.

Believe me if he looked oldUh, right, we can belie...

2008-09-28T19:39:00.000-04:00

Believe me if he looked old

Uh, right, we can believe PeteKent that John McCain doesn't look old like we can believe him about anything else.

That's one poll and it's likely to be wrong.You're...

2008-09-28T19:37:00.000-04:00

That's one poll and it's likely to be wrong.

You're one person and you're likely to be an intellectually dishonest fool.

McCain has sworn to put the COuntry first even if ...

2008-09-28T19:33:00.000-04:00

McCain has sworn to put the COuntry first even if it means losing the election

His biggest lie of all.

Very contrived on his part.You seem not to know th...

2008-09-28T19:31:00.000-04:00

Very contrived on his part.

You seem not to know the meaning of the word (which might help explain that you're so dumb as to think McCain won). Obama's comment was impromptu; it was McCain's reference to his bracelet that was contrived ... part of his prep, to score a political point, and devoid of any real concern ... it was just him being an asshole and saying how important it is to kill more people so that the ones already dead "didn't die in vain". Obama's comment that no soldier dies in vain because s/he is following the CiC's orders was rather deep, and I'm sure that vets and soldiers who heard that greatly appreciated it. The difference between McCain and Obama is illustrated by McCain's lie that he supports vets ... in fact he repeatedly has voted against their interests, which is why he gets a 20% approval rating.

Usually, the better looking guy wins. Usually the ...

2008-09-28T19:24:00.000-04:00

Usually, the better looking guy wins.

Usually the taller guy wins (unless SwiftBoated).

The polls on Monday and Tuesday will give us an in...

2008-09-28T19:21:00.000-04:00

The polls on Monday and Tuesday will give us an indication.

Uh, no, they won't, because McCain's numbers are in freefall for many reasons, this debate included. Only polls specifically about the debate will tell us anything about its effect, and they have told us that McCain lost badly among the critical swing segment.

Debates always happen within the context of recent...

2008-09-27T17:15:00.000-04:00

Debates always happen within the context of recent electoral events. McCain did have a fairly strong debate last night, but after his grandstanding antics Wednesday and the purely awful performance of Palin last week, the effectiveness of his debate performance was severely blunted. You may actually see some small movement in the polls over the next week or so toward McCain as a result of last night, but it will not be significant if it happens at all. Obama only had to hold his own and he did that very well.

There are two more debates to come that will have a greater impact on the election than this one. If McCain can control himself and not do anything stupid before the next one, he may actually be able to tighten up the race with another good performance. But I consider this unlikely. McCain is behind in all polls with only five weeks to go and is in panic mode. Watch for more desperate antics like last week that will only hurt him. His judgment is poor and likely to get worse as the election looms.

For those who might actually think that he might yet pose a serious threat to Obama... don't fret. We still have Sarah. ;)

We are facing a great depression in this nation ag...

2008-09-27T08:36:00.000-04:00

We are facing a great depression in this nation again. Neither of these candidates have a clue. And yet all the political blogs and television commentators mindlessly carry on about debating style. Barack Obama and John McCain had absolutely nothing to say about what to do to get the nation out of this disaster. Who lost the debate? America.

I say tie.

2008-09-27T08:04:00.000-04:00

I say tie.

I analyzed the words and sentences which Obama, Mc...

2008-09-27T03:39:00.000-04:00

I analyzed the words and sentences which Obama, McCain and—why not?—Lehrer used in the debate. Have a look at the bubble graph (no. of words and length of sentences and words). I also made "word clouds." Interesting! Go to my Word Face-Off blog to view.

McCain started off in the muck: he invoked Ted Ken...

2008-09-27T02:57:00.000-04:00

McCain started off in the muck: he invoked Ted Kennedy in the most egregious and blatantly canny attempt to drag the viewers by the heart into his camp.

McCain went on like a kicked dog through the rest of the debate, fearful of ever looking Obama in the face, even as Obama directed his comments straight at him. Never once did McCain direct a comment at Obama.

In every question, McCain seemed to get more flustered, and was even making sniffing sounds like he was ill near the end of the debate. Obama's demeanor was always prim, calm, and intelligent. McCain's was confused, ill-equipped, and angry.

The Dial Response Group ratings fell well below the mid-line every time McCain spoke, particularly that of the line which represented Independents, and typically rose well above the mid-line in response to Obama. In sheer mathematical scoring, the data will show Obama the clear winner.

Barack Obama won this first debate handily.

Throwing my opinion in...It is clear reading all t...

2008-09-27T02:56:00.000-04:00

Throwing my opinion in...

It is clear reading all the responses that there are so many varying opinions on who won and why. I'm amazed at the diversity of reactions from even just pro Obama folks. Some have defined a win or loss based on their personal reaction while others have tried to guage the impact on undecided or soft support voters. If you are an Obama supporter, you probably had an expectation of how you wanted him to perform even if you never consciously made note of it. If he met or exceeded those expectations then it is a win for him. And then there are the instant polls. It seems like some if not all the polls of the reactions were from people pre-selected. If this is the case, then I wouldn't put too much stock in these polls.

Here's why: These people are more likely to watch all of and pay attention to the debate since they were "pre-selected". I'm not so sure the average undecided voter was glued to the tv during the debate as some of the poll group were. There impressions are going to be shaped by the media narrative over the weekend.

The polls on Monday and Tuesday will give us an indication. I suspect virtually no movement either way as a result of the debate.

"Can I be shallow for a second? Obama is one good-...

2008-09-27T00:24:00.000-04:00

"Can I be shallow for a second? Obama is one good-looking sunofabitch. Maybe it's the side-by-side with McCain, but it was like Kennedy-Nixon on steroids..."

I think this is what many voters are going to take from this. Obama looks like a President from the movies. As much as people wish it were not the case, looks matter. I think appearance hurt Kerry. Usually, the better looking guy wins. The main exception is 2000, but Gore won the popular vote.

J: I am old enough to have seen the Kennedy-Nixon ...

2008-09-27T00:23:00.000-04:00

J: I am old enough to have seen the Kennedy-Nixon debates. They were fought over whether the U.S. should defend Quemoy and Matsu, off onto trivia. Basically it was an intellectual standoff but the younger JFK stayed cool and articulate, while the not-so-old Nixon had both a "5-o'clock shadow" and the sweats (wet upper lip, etc.) which made him look nervous.

Keep in mind that JFK was also a decorated war hero, and was married to Jackie -- so had some other things going for him.

Dems, we always see ther glass as half full. Yes,...

2008-09-27T00:22:00.001-04:00

Dems, we always see ther glass as half full. Yes,he should have hit McCain a couple times - but McCain failed in this hail mary. This was a win. Maybe we won 10-7 and we should have won 21-7, but a win is win and is more than BO needed.

"Why are dems so defeatist? WE JUST FUCKING WON!"I...

2008-09-27T00:22:00.000-04:00

"Why are dems so defeatist? WE JUST FUCKING WON!"

I'd say that will be definitive next Thursday

I give McCain a slight edge. Me-too Obama had a re...

2008-09-27T00:21:00.003-04:00

I give McCain a slight edge. Me-too Obama had a real duh moment with the bracelet comment. He had to look at the bracelet to remember the KIA's name. Very contrived on his part.

I will give him credit for reducing his uh's. He should pass his freshman speech class now.

Why are dems so defeatist? WE JUST FUCKING WON!We'...

2008-09-27T00:21:00.002-04:00

Why are dems so defeatist? WE JUST FUCKING WON!

We're Democrats. We're a firing squad standing in a circle pointing inward.

Don't matter what we think now. Every major netwo...

2008-09-27T00:21:00.001-04:00

Don't matter what we think now. Every major network poll has BO winning independents/undecided by double digits. People will wake up tomorrow and hear that BO won the debate the +4-5% lead will consolidate or grow and next week's vp debate - if there is one, (Washington insiders believe there will be a manufactured reason to keep her away)will finish this thing off.

Honestly - as one astute blogger pointed out McCain has sworn to put the COuntry first even if it means losing the election, but if he thinks that BO is dangerously unqualified and unprepared, than how could it be good for the country to let him win. Fact is, BO showed tonight he is prepared, therfore I expect McCain will do what he did in TX in 2000 and pull out of the race and endorse BO. It is after all what's best for the USA.

aw fuck st. louis, don't you know? the devil lives...

2008-09-27T00:21:00.000-04:00

aw fuck st. louis, don't you know? the devil lives there!!! seriously. Build a giant ball in kansas city, a giant croquet mallet in jeff city, and try for the arch. I grew up in KC, and I say fuck st. louis, a bunch of assholes live there (and i've even lived there!!!!)