Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Media Alert

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2009-10-08T06:43:40.029-04:00

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2009-09-11T07:56:57.483-04:00

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2009-03-11T22:26:00.001-04:00

^^ nice blog!! thanks a lot! ^^徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社, 徵信...

2009-03-11T22:26:00.000-04:00

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2009-02-15T21:24:00.000-05:00

great job - nate, but when will the SF Giants win ...

2008-08-09T02:29:00.000-04:00

great job - nate, but when will the SF Giants win the World Series?

Great Job Nate. Hope to see you on other shows

2008-08-09T01:17:00.000-04:00

Great Job Nate. Hope to see you on other shows

Excellent Nate. I think as the mad scientist you a...

2008-08-09T00:45:00.000-04:00

Excellent Nate. I think as the mad scientist you also get a special non-smiling dispensation.

I actually would like to hear more about your view of prediction markets.

My sense is that they are an enormously risk-loving lot so that they inflate low probabilities - basically, they love underdogs for the chance of an upset win netting them more than they invest (basically, my hunch is that an algorithm buying each Intrade contract offered above 50% is a winning formula). You're conservative, and the two paradoxically coincide. (While non-polling-based probabilities should increase Obama's chances, you rely on polls alone and consider their margin of error realistically, ending up with a rather high McCain probability - through a route very different from Intrade's).

But I did not look up the scholarship in the field. Would love to hear more.

Great job, Nate. It wouldn't hurt to smile a littl...

2008-08-09T00:35:00.000-04:00

Great job, Nate. It wouldn't hurt to smile a little. ;)

Free podcast of Countdown is available at iTunes. ...

2008-08-09T00:32:00.000-04:00

Free podcast of Countdown is available at iTunes. FYI.

Countdown brought me to your site as well. It is ...

2008-08-09T00:24:00.000-04:00

Countdown brought me to your site as well. It is quite intelligent, as was your presentation - a reason why you fit so well on Countdown. Congrats.

As for the KO haters here, do you have any examples of Olbermann being factually wrong? Ever see him make up publications and make wild claims of moving public opinion?

Bloviating Bill-O most often gets hoisted upon his own words. That makes Worst Persons great entertainment, and I don't have to watch Boll-O's crap to get a whiff of what he's depositing over on Faux Gnus.

Great job on Countdown tonight Nate, felt like wat...

2008-08-08T23:22:00.000-04:00

Great job on Countdown tonight Nate, felt like watching one of my own make it big lol.

Good stuff, Nate. Next stop, race for the white ho...

2008-08-08T22:24:00.000-04:00

Good stuff, Nate. Next stop, race for the white house, then maybe chris matthews, then morning joe, then meet the press. Congratulations on being the new moderator of meet the press!

Great Job Nate. Let's hope to see you more on KO....

2008-08-08T22:16:00.000-04:00

Great Job Nate. Let's hope to see you more on KO. He is an answer to O Rielly but he doesn't take himself all the seriously.

Nate, is your article on the "checkmate compromise...

2008-08-08T22:01:00.000-04:00

Nate, is your article on the "checkmate compromise" the reason you were booked on Countdown?

anyone got a you tube link yet?http://www.msnbc.ms...

2008-08-08T21:59:00.000-04:00

anyone got a you tube link yet?

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3036677/

It's #3/

You are saying on countdown that polls have a marg...

2008-08-08T21:56:00.000-04:00

You are saying on countdown that polls have a margin of error of 9 points. Ok so tell me what is the margin of error for a synthesis of polls like
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

Certainly this narrows it down some.

What Nate meant by that was polls taken so far out have a 9 or so point margin of error as compared to the actual result of the election. The margin of error will shrink as we get closer to the actual election, but until then too much can change before anyone votes to really get an accurate grasp of the outcome.

If you were looking for a fairly accurate projection of how the vote would go if it happened today, the MOE would drop considerably, I'm sure.

Actually, Countdown does win the timeslot among th...

2008-08-08T21:45:00.000-04:00

Actually, Countdown does win the timeslot among the 18-34 demographic.

anyone got a you tube link yet?

2008-08-08T21:39:00.000-04:00

anyone got a you tube link yet?

Mule Rider:"Back to Keith O., I find it funny he's...

2008-08-08T21:38:00.000-04:00

Mule Rider:
"Back to Keith O., I find it funny he's repeatedly slammed Fox News with so many superlatives yet they kick his ass repeatedly and handily in the ratings...isn't that like the Royals repeatedly getting their asses kicked by the Yankees and repeatedly calling them a shitty team afterwards."

No, no it is not. Here's something you probably don't realize, Mule...
Fox News is tabloid press.

Here, read the transcript of the 'debate' on the 'full digital nudity and sex' in the game "Mass Effect".
http://www.gamepolitics.com/2008/01/22/1993

If you like, watch the youtube clip at the end of the post. Those remarks were really what was said.

Then, the psychologist who was brought on to 'debate' the stated that she was given no information, and allowed no time to research.
http://www.gamepolitics.com/2008/01/26/cooper-lawrence-i-misspoke-about-mass-effect

It's not the first time, either.
Fox News has legally defended its right to pass fiction as truth.
Don't believe me? Well, you shouldn't have any problems searching for what Fox News was doing in a Florida appeals court during February 2003, as such a fine news organization would never be taken to court for LYING.

Then there's the Chris Wallace interview of Bill Clinton, in which 7 minutes and 30 seconds were supposed to be used for discussing his global initiative, then the remaining time for anything else.
How does it break down?
Check for yourself!
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=9026120716999978732
1:06 to 4:20, Discussing global initiative.
4:20: Wallace asks a question about why Clinton didn't get Osama bin Laden, AND HAS FOLLOW UP QUESTIONS, to goad Bill into talking to defend his actions in office. Mr. Clinton figures it out and realizes that the whole thing was a set-up for ratings, so he unloads on Wallace.

Ratings have to do with getting people to watch, and Fox News is almost singularly unburdened by little things like fact checking, obeying their own 'rules', or even telling its viewers real information.

So don't use ratings to say that Fox News has more merit.
It's a corporation run by a very greedy man who knows that sex sells and that people would rather hear a lie that suits them than the truth.

Any other news organization that has even a SHRED of journalistic integrity is therefore at a disadvantage against Fox in the ratings. Your amusement stems from ignorance of the truth; instead, you should be amused that Fox News sued Al Franken for trying to use 'Fair and Balanced' as part of a book title.
No sports team metaphor applies, because MSM and FOX are playing entirely different games.

I like Keith for no other reason than he actually ...

2008-08-08T21:35:00.000-04:00

I like Keith for no other reason than he actually lets his guests make their point and almost always has intelligent people on to make their case.

He tends not to interrupt people when they're speaking (or trying to), unlike, well, just about everyone else on television.

OK.. you have a face. You appear humorless.. is t...

2008-08-08T21:27:00.000-04:00

OK.. you have a face. You appear humorless.. is that right? But I do have a serious question. You are saying on countdown that polls have a margin of error of 9 points. Ok so tell me what is the margin of error for a synthesis of polls like
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

Certainly this narrows it down some.

Lookin good Nate. Nice job

2008-08-08T21:15:00.000-04:00

Lookin good Nate. Nice job

Good job tonight. Love this site and wish more pe...

2008-08-08T21:13:00.000-04:00

Good job tonight. Love this site and wish more people and the talking heads would understand the difference between popular vote/likely voters and the electoral vote.
I like Keith for no other reason than he actually lets his guests make their point and almost always has intelligent people on to make their case.

I'm here because of your appearance on Countdown. ...

2008-08-08T21:11:00.000-04:00

I'm here because of your appearance on Countdown. Excellent job. Finally - a cogent, intelligent analysis of what the polls are saying.

You have been bookmarked!