Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Outstanding States

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2009-10-02T06:54:57.307-04:00

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2009-08-28T03:22:03.412-04:00

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2009-02-08T22:07:00.000-05:00

My sincere thank to Nate, Sean and Brett for your ...

2008-11-05T02:59:00.000-05:00

My sincere thank to Nate, Sean and Brett for your fantastic work during this election cycle.

You are true professionals. I will miss your great posts.

So far without NC, MO and MT Obama is at your projected total of 349.

You have outdone all pollsters. Someone should be calling you soon to add you to their payroll.

Congratulations

paprbackwriter16 said:Re: Palin's "coming back to ...

2008-11-05T02:53:00.000-05:00

paprbackwriter16 said:

Re: Palin's "coming back to haunt us."

Please sir. Not the briar patch.

Good one! And my sentiments exactly.

I don't believe the Governor of Alaska can appoint...

2008-11-05T02:18:00.000-05:00

I don't believe the Governor of Alaska can appoint a vacant Senate seat. If Stevens is re-elected and the Senate throws him out (which the Republican leadership has indicated is a 100% certainty), then the seat sits vacant until there can be a run-off. Palin can run for the seat, I suppose, but she won't be able to appoint herself or anyone else to it.

Re: Palin's "coming back to haunt us."Please sir. ...

2008-11-05T02:15:00.000-05:00

Re: Palin's "coming back to haunt us."

Please sir. Not the briar patch.

MSNBC just called INDY for Obama

2008-11-05T02:09:00.000-05:00

MSNBC just called INDY for Obama

Why hasn't Indiana or North Carolina been called f...

2008-11-05T02:01:00.000-05:00

Why hasn't Indiana or North Carolina been called for Obama? Whats going on in Missouri?

Can we talk about how Stevens is AHEAD?Get ready f...

2008-11-05T01:56:00.000-05:00

Can we talk about how Stevens is AHEAD?

Get ready for Senator Palin!

@madamericaABC is pretty goodFranken's catching up...

2008-11-05T01:54:00.000-05:00

@madamerica

ABC is pretty good

Franken's catching up big time...-180 votes right now, incredibly close

Coleman/Franken race is insanely close...Coleman -...

2008-11-05T01:53:00.000-05:00

Coleman/Franken race is insanely close...
Coleman - 1,048,956
Franken - 1,048,784

I expect my vote to be the difference.

Where are you guys checking NC results? CNN hasn't...

2008-11-05T01:50:00.000-05:00

Where are you guys checking NC results? CNN hasn't updated in a while.

Nate, Sean: fantastic job. Thank you so much

2008-11-05T01:48:00.000-05:00

Nate, Sean: fantastic job. Thank you so much

CNN called AK for McCain. No surprise

2008-11-05T01:47:00.001-05:00

CNN called AK for McCain. No surprise

I am as sick as you all think I am. i enjoed all ...

2008-11-05T01:47:00.000-05:00

I am as sick as you all think I am. i enjoed all the sock puppets and even acquired a couple of my own. I will reflect on what I did to inspire such hate speech, funny as it is. I have no time to read and hope to remember to come back and read them. Genius to be talking about tommorow's Ras poll. I wonder if I will wake up looking for it!

WV (really); sadmen -- me and my cohorts!

Indiana and NC to Obama. Missouri to McCain. Monta...

2008-11-05T01:44:00.000-05:00

Indiana and NC to Obama.

Missouri to McCain.

Montana - probably McCain, but Gallatin (Bozeman and MSU) still hasn't reported at all. One of the bigger counties in the state. Bozeman is less lefty than Missoula, but will probably be blue.

NE-2 will be in the single digits. I'm thinking Obama.

355. Not bad.

MT has a number of R+500-2,000 counties left and m...

2008-11-05T01:43:00.000-05:00

MT has a number of R+500-2,000 counties left and most of the heavy D counties have already reported.

MO still had some results from Jackson (KC) and STL City to come in. I think Obama will win MO

IN has results left from mostly blue counties.

As for VA:
Prince William, Manassas City, Loudoun, and Henrico all flipped.

Albemarle was red in 2004, Obama won it by 10,000 votes. The Northern Neck is starting to go blue.

Absentee voters from Arlington, Fairfax Co, Newport News, Portsmouth, Prince William, and Richmond City haven't reported their results yet. In addition, Richmond City went +38,000 for Obama and some of the heavier Dem precincts have not yet reported.

In Arlington and Fairfax, early voting was pretty much allowed for any reason.

I'm thinking we have another 50-75k to add to the margin in VA, and that's nearly 2%. It'll be 53-47 when all is said and done.

Here's something incredible: Ralph Nader has risen...

2008-11-05T01:38:00.000-05:00

Here's something incredible: Ralph Nader has risen from the grave to screw up yet another election - Missouri.

Per the Sec of State's website, McCain currently leads Obama by a little over 17,000 votes.

Ralph Nader currently has a little over 17,000 votes in Missouri.

Nate,your site has kept me sane during a very nerv...

2008-11-05T01:36:00.000-05:00

Nate,your site has kept me sane during a very nerve wracking electoral process. And boy did it pay off. You and your number crunchers were pretty dead on. Kudos for sheer brilliance! Thank you for providing an amazing site that after reading some unbelievable story in the MSM I would go to 538 to remind myself there was nothing to fear...thank you thank you
ps: being a die hard baseball fan (Yanks) and stats person (novice) your background made sense and the insight was beyond value
Madera
From very BLUE Jersey!

North Carolina update: Only TWO precincts are stil...

2008-11-05T01:35:00.001-05:00

North Carolina update: Only TWO precincts are still not reporting. They are in the Charlotte area. One is Republican for sure, but is one-third the size of the other one that is HEAVILY Democratic and has nearly 39% African-American voters. I cannot see any way that he does not win NC...even if only half a point.

Nate and Sean,You made a home for all of us. Than...

2008-11-05T01:35:00.000-05:00

Nate and Sean,

You made a home for all of us. Thank you.

Your ability to project results was awesome. I'll expect a scorecard, but I think your macro prediction on the PV will be as good as anyone’s.

The pollsters did an excellent job on the state level. E.G. McCain will lose PA by 10 and OH by 5. He lost NV and CO and he may lose MT. All prefigured. The eventual PV should be at 53-46, seven points dead on. Awesome that it worked out so well, except the Exit Polls, but even they appear to have improved from 2004 and the biggest flaw that I can see is that they over-sampled Pro-Obama women by a few points.

No one did any of this better than Nate. He is a dullard for sure and his throwing out of bombs for us to chew over was kind of mean since we were a very rude and derisive bunch, wholly intolerant of opinion differences in the sense that the opponent was always a demon, a deeply flawed malevolent individual.

It surprised me how uncharitable and, well, ill-liberal, Liberals can be. It eventually turned me off to the point where I preferred to throw my own bombs and not respond to the bait that was nearly 100% insulting.

Very early on I was prepared to introduce the specter of race that hung over this campaign. I did not see why we could not in an anonymous forum exchange ideas about the elephant in the room.

My thesis: I felt that ultimately the people would come to reject a man who forced them to filter everything through a prism of race so that even mere criticism became intolerant behavior. I thought that Obama would be asking too much to have our every action adjudged for its potentially racist content and felt and continue to feel that such a thing will be a distraction to an Obama Presidency.

I am still fearful of this, but we have seen the ability of Barack Obama to turn such things on their ears. I have to say that the fear I felt that would cause the people to reject Obama, became instead a desire to affirm the man, to accept even the superiority of his race, as we had insisted on accepting the superiority of the white mans. Mmmmm . . . .

While it may be naïve, there is a certain comfortable assurance of rectitude in being for Obama. I think this was ultimately what made him so successful. We could redeem our racist natures simply by voting for him. How easily we could be washed clean.

Folks like me know better. It takes a lot more than a feel good vote to cure a person of uncharitable feeling towards his fellow man.

Still, his genius was making voting for him an affirmation of our better selves. I find that the most breathtaking political conceit in the history of politics and I feel he has set himself up so that he needs to be a very successful performer because we embraced him body and soul and abandoned generations of prejudice to act in what we were told was our better nature.

With Senator, now President-Elect, Obama, there had better be a great deal of "there there". He has told us to ignore his biography -- or at least the gaps in it -- and his plans have sounded high-minded and materially beneficial for the great mass of people. Obama ran as a populist.

He must maintain his popularity.

So now I have a standard to which I can hold Obama.

I have always been willing to be forthright about my issues and concerns about the Senator. I expected discussion and was shocked to find that I was to be shouted down.

It became a theme of the campaign. You all – Senator Obama – The Media. Case in point: Joe the Plumber.

Still as things draw to a close, I realize, Sean and Nate, that we were ungovernable and I appreciate the liberality of your spirits to let us run free.

I will always feel affection for Sean for he was the messy human face on all this. Poker player, channeler of Jack Kerouac. His inspiration for Bizzaro World caused me to write an elegy to Barack Obama that even I found moving. And in which I still find hope, because in the end our choices are our appealing to our better natures.

I so comprehend how excited and hopeful you must feel. Obama's charisma is palpable. Along with that is his power. Think of what he accomplished from nothing. He is either a truly great man or some truly great man or men are pulling his strings. But either the way the coalition he represents is the most powerful one in politics today.

A politician like that makes generations sit up and take notice. We respond to their ability to bring to fruition a shared agenda. That might be the agenda of hope and change – a legitimate aspiration or it might be a policy agenda - -even one that is Socialistic, whatever it is it will please the Left.

You wind up idealizing such politicians.

It is what we felt for Ronald Reagan and what we now feel for Sarah Palin.

I tell you, she will come back to haunt y'all!

She is the final couplet of this little Shakespearean Drama (Comedy?).

This forum has been my passion along with the election itself for the past six months it seems.

Sean, I hope you win a million bucks.

Nate, you are the Superstar of Polling, my friend. Name your price. You are worth everything you can command. How’s that for banality? I hope it was long and rambling enough and that even in its paragraph structure it brought tears of boredom to your eyes.

Thank you and good night to one and all!

Anxiously awaiting the NC call. It appears there ...

2008-11-05T01:31:00.001-05:00

Anxiously awaiting the NC call. It appears there are not enough outstanding votes to give it to McCain.

Montana will go McCain. Most of the blue precinct...

2008-11-05T01:31:00.000-05:00

Montana will go McCain. Most of the blue precincts are in already, and lots of the red ones are still out.

Oh well, let Missouri go whichever way it wants. A...

2008-11-05T01:30:00.000-05:00

Oh well, let Missouri go whichever way it wants. America doesn't care. So much for the bellwether state. It has been a self fulfilling prophecy and now it's history.